Policy Rules, Regime Switches, and Trend Inflation: An Empirical Investigation for the U.S.

This paper estimates Taylor rules featuring instabilities in policy parameters, switches in policy shocks' volatility, and time-varying trend inflation using post-WWII U.S. data. The model embedding the stochastic target performs better in terms of data-fit and identification of the changes in the FOMC's chairmanships. Policy breaks are found not to be synchronized with variations in policy shocks' volatilities. Finally, we detect a negative correlation between systematic monetary policy aggressiveness and inflation gap persistence.

Policy rules, regime switches, and trend inflation: an empirical investigation for the United States

This paper estimates Taylor rules featuring instabilities in policy parameters and switches in policy shocksvolatility for the post-WWII U.S. economy. We contrast a rule embedding a fixed-inflation target with another featuring trend inflation, i.e. a time-varying inflation target. The rule embedding trend inflation turns out to be a) empirically superior according to a marginal likelihood-based comparison, and b) more able to pin down some relevant episodes of the post-WWII U.S. monetary policy history. Estimates conducted with Greenbook data confirm the empirical superiority of the rule featuring a time-varying inflation target. A comparison with recently published estimates of trend inflation is also conducte

Il «pulvis et umbra» oraziano in alcuni poeti latini tardoantichi

L\u2019affermazione di Orazio pulvis et umbra sumus (Carm. 4.7.16) ha lasciato un\u2019impronta nei poeti successivi? Scopo del mio articolo \ue8 analizzare l\u2019influenza di un tale verso su tre autori tardoantichi: Ausonio, Paolino di Nola e Venanzio Fortunato. Essi si rifanno al modello in modi differenti: se Ausonio si limita a riprodurre il verso di Orazio, Paolino, invece, riprende i termini pulvis et umbra aggiungendovi sine Christo, per mettere in luce la diversit\ue0 fra la visione pagana e la sua concezione di vita rinnovata dalla conversione. Inoltre, echi dalle Scritture nei due passi di Paolino e di Venanzio portano a una ricchezza di significato dovuta all\u2019incontro fra la tradizione classica e quella biblica. Un\u2019appendice tenta di rispondere alla domanda su quale testo del Salterio conoscesse Paolino.Has the Horatian statement pulvis et umbra sumus (Carm. 4.7.16) left his mark on later poets? This paper aims to analize the influence of such a verse on three authors from Late Antiquity: Ausonius, Paulinus of Nola and Venantius Fortunatus. They refer to the model in different ways: if Ausonius simply borrows the verse from Horace, Paulinus, instead, quotes the terms pulvis et umbra adding sine Christo, in order to point out the divergence between pagan view and his new concept of life after the conversion. Moreover, echoes from the Scriptures in Paulinus and Venantius\u2019 passages give new meanings to their texts by the encounter between classical and biblical tradition. An appendix deals with the text of the Psalter which Paulinus probably knew

LE STROFI SAFFICHE IN ORAZIO, AUSONIO E PRUDENZIO: TRA INNODIA E POESIA PROFANA

This dissertation deals with the Sapphic stanzas composed by an ancient poet, Horace, and by two late Latin poets, Ausonius and Prudentius. In the first chapter I point out that from Horace to medieval poetry there is a strict connection between the Sapphic meter and hymnody; Prudentius is a key figure in the evolution of the poetry in Sapphics: he is the link between Horace\u2019s Sapphic poems and medieval hymns. Then, I state that Christian hymnodists considered Horace their classical antecedent in the genre of hymnody, along with David, whose Psaltery is a model for Christian hymns. The second and the third chapters are the core of my dissertation: they focus on Prudentius\u2019 Cath. 8 and its relationship with Horace\u2019s Carmen saeculare. I first examine the collocation of Cath. 8 in the collection of the hymns for every hour, then I analyse its biblical narrative, in which I find a baptismal symbolism. In the third chapter, I try not to be influenced by political prejudices on the Secular song, but I seek to read Horace\u2019s poem as late antique poets read it \u2013 as a hymn, not as a political ode. At the end of my analysis of Horace\u2019s influence on Cath. 8, I draw the conclusion that Prudentius recalls just those Horatian poems that can be considered hymns or odes on morality. After that, I address the issue of the singing of Horace\u2019s poems through the centuries and last I focus on phonic and rhythmic aspects of Prudentius\u2019 lyrical poetry. In the last chapter I investigate the relationship between Horace and Ausonius through the perspective of a single poem, Ephem. 1; a metaliterary reflection at the end of Ephem. 1 paves the way to a metapoetical use of the Sapphic stanzas. Finally, I compare Prudentius\u2019 Cathemerinon with Ausonius\u2019 Ephemeris in order to see how Prudentius both recalls and distances himself from Ausonius\u2019 poetry

Effects of Reminiscence Therapy on Cognition, Depression and Quality of Life in Elderly People with Alzheimer’s Disease: A Systematic Review of Randomized Controlled Trials

Background: Patients with Alzheimer’s disease (AD) present with cognitive function deterioration, neuropsychiatric symptoms (NPS)-especially depression-and low quality of life (QoL). Management of AD remains difficult, especially in the elderly. Reminiscence therapy (RT) is a well-known cognitive rehabilitation intervention that can be adopted in nursing and residential care homes to restore autobiographical memory, ameliorate NPS, and improve the QoL of people with dementia. However, the evidence-based efficacy of RT for elderly patients with AD remains to be determined. Methods: Here, we synthesized findings of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) exploring the effects of RT on cognition, depression, and QoL in elderly people with AD, according to the most recent PRISMA statement. We searched for RCTs in PubMed, Web of Science, and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, and in trial registries (i.e., clinicaltrials.gov and International Clinical Trials Registry Platform of the World Health Organization). Two review authors extracted data of interest, with cognition, depression, and QoL measures as outcomes. Results: A total of five articles were included in the final analysis. Findings globally showed that RT, both administered in individual or group sessions at least once a week for 30–35 min over a period of 12 weeks, is effective in supporting global cognition, ameliorating depression, and improving specific aspects of the QoL in elderly people with AD. Conclusions: RT has the potential to be a routine non-pharmacological therapy for elderly people with AD, thanks to its wider effects on the individual in terms of cognitive vitality and emotional status promotion, with positive implications for patient’s daily life. Despite such evidences, caution should be used in findings’ generalizability in relation to the paucity of existing RCTs with long-term follow-up

Estimating Fiscal Multipliers: News From A Non-linear World

We estimate non-linear VARs to assess to what extent fiscal spending multipliers are countercyclical in the US. We deal with the issue of non-fundamentalness due to fiscal foresight by appealing to sums of revisions of expectations of fiscal expenditures. This measure of anticipated fiscal shocks is shown to carry valuable information about future dynamics of public spending. Results based on generalised impulse responses suggest that fiscal spending multipliers in recessions are greater than one, but not statistically larger than those in expansions. However, non-linearities arise when focusing on 'extreme' events, that is, deep recessions versus strong expansionary periods

Sleep disturbances and sleep disorders as risk factors for chronic postsurgical pain: A systematic review and meta-analysis

This systematic review and meta-analysis aimed at evaluating the role of sleep disturbances and sleep disorders in influencing presence and intensity of chronic postsurgical pain (CPSP). We included cohort studies which enrolled adults, assessed sleep disturbances or disorders before surgery, measured pain intensity, presence of pain, or opioid use at least three months after surgery. Eighteen studies were included in a narrative synthesis and 12 in a meta-analysis. Sleep disturbances and disorders were significantly related to CPSP, with a small effect size, r = 0.13 (95% CI 0.06–0.20). The certainty of evidence was rated low due to risk of bias and heterogeneity. In subgroup analyses the above association was significant in studies that used pain intensity as the outcome, but not in those that used presence of pain; in studies on patients who underwent total knee arthroplasty or other surgeries, but not in those on patients who had breast cancer surgery or total hip arthroplasty; in the single study that assessed insomnia and in studies that assessed sleep disturbances as predictors. A meta-regression showed that the follow-up length was positively associated with the overall estimate. Our findings suggest that presurgical sleep disturbances and disorders should be evaluated to detect patients at risk for CPSP. Registration: https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/PROSPERO/display_record.php?RecordID=27265

The relationship between emotional intelligence, obesity and eating disorder in children and adolescents: A systematic mapping review

Eating and weight disorders often develop early in life and cause a long-standing significant health burden. Given the documented role of emotional intelligence (EI) in shaping the body image and predicting the onset of eating disorders, knowledge of the mechanisms involved in EI among youth is fundamental to designing specific interventions for screening and prevention of obesity and eating disorders (EDs). The present systematic mapping review was aimed to explore and quantify the nature and distribution of existing research investigating the impact of EI on EDs in young people. A systematic search for relevant articles was conducted using PubMed, Scopus, PsycINFO and Web of Science databases. The Appraisal tool for Cross-Sectional Studies (AXIS) was used to assess the included studies’ methodological quality. The included studies’ results were mapped based on stratification by age groups (children, preadolescents, and adolescents), population (clinical vs. non-clinical) and disordered eating outcomes. Nine studies were included, supporting the association between EI and body image dissatisfaction, ED risk and bulimic symptomatology, but not with anorexic symptoms. Research on children and clinical populations was scant. Further studies are needed to deepen the role of EI in the genesis and maintenance of EDs

Psychological Intervention Based on Mental Relaxation to Manage Stress in Female Junior Elite Soccer Team: Improvement in Cardiac Autonomic Control, Perception of Stress and Overall Health

Chronic stress may represent one of the most important factors that negatively affects the health and performance of athletes. Finding a way to introduce psychological strategies to manage stress in everyday training routines is challenging, particularly in junior teams. We also must consider that a stress management intervention should be regarded as “efficacious” only if its application results in improvement of the complex underlying pathogenetic substratum, which considers mechanistically interrelated factors, such as immunological, endocrine and autonomic controls further to psychological functioning and behavior. In this study, we investigated the feasibility of implementing, in a standard training routine of the junior team of the Italian major soccer league, a stress management program based on mental relaxation training (MRT). We evaluated its effects on stress perception and cardiac autonomic regulation as assessed by means of ANSI, a single composite percentile-ranked proxy of autonomic balance, which is free of gender and age bias, economical, and simple to apply in a clinical setting. We observed that the simple employed MRT intervention was feasible in a female junior soccer team and was associated with a reduced perception of stress, an improved perception of overall health, and a betterment of cardiac autonomic control. This data may corroborate the scientific literature that indicates psychological intervention based on MRT as an efficacious strategy to improve performance, managing negative stress effects on cardiac autonomic control