Agent-based modeling: a systematic assessment of use cases and requirements for enhancing pharmaceutical research and development productivity.

A crisis continues to brew within the pharmaceutical research and development (R&D) enterprise: productivity continues declining as costs rise, despite ongoing, often dramatic scientific and technical advances. To reverse this trend, we offer various suggestions for both the expansion and broader adoption of modeling and simulation (M&S) methods. We suggest strategies and scenarios intended to enable new M&S use cases that directly engage R&D knowledge generation and build actionable mechanistic insight, thereby opening the door to enhanced productivity. What M&S requirements must be satisfied to access and open the door, and begin reversing the productivity decline? Can current methods and tools fulfill the requirements, or are new methods necessary? We draw on the relevant, recent literature to provide and explore answers. In so doing, we identify essential, key roles for agent-based and other methods. We assemble a list of requirements necessary for M&S to meet the diverse needs distilled from a collection of research, review, and opinion articles. We argue that to realize its full potential, M&S should be actualized within a larger information technology framework--a dynamic knowledge repository--wherein models of various types execute, evolve, and increase in accuracy over time. We offer some details of the issues that must be addressed for such a repository to accrue the capabilities needed to reverse the productivity decline

Central Nervous System Parasitosis and Neuroinflammation Ameliorated by Systemic IL-10 Administration in Trypanosoma brucei-Infected Mice

Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Melarsoprol cyclodextrin inclusion complexes as promising oral candidates for the treatment of human African trypanosomiasis

Human African trypanosomiasis (HAT), or sleeping sickness, results from infection with the protozoan parasites <i>Trypanosoma brucei</i> (<i>T.b.</i>) <i>gambiense</i> or <i>T.b.rhodesiense</i> and is invariably fatal if untreated. There are 60 million people at risk from the disease throughout sub-Saharan Africa. The infection progresses from the haemolymphatic stage where parasites invade the blood, lymphatics and peripheral organs, to the late encephalitic stage where they enter the central nervous system (CNS) to cause serious neurological disease. The trivalent arsenical drug melarsoprol (Arsobal) is the only currently available treatment for CNS-stage <i>T.b.rhodesiense</i> infection. However, it must be administered intravenously due to the presence of propylene glycol solvent and is associated with numerous adverse reactions. A severe post-treatment reactive encephalopathy occurs in about 10% of treated patients, half of whom die. Thus melarsoprol kills 5% of all patients receiving it. Cyclodextrins have been used to improve the solubility and reduce the toxicity of a wide variety of drugs. We therefore investigated two melarsoprol cyclodextrin inclusion complexes; melarsoprol hydroxypropyl-͎-cyclodextrin and melarsoprol randomly-methylated-β-cyclodextrin. We found that these compounds retain trypanocidal properties <i>in vitro</i> and cure CNS-stage murine infections when delivered orally, once per day for 7-days, at a dosage of 0.05 mmol/kg. No overt signs of toxicity were detected. Parasite load within the brain was rapidly reduced following treatment onset and magnetic resonance imaging showed restoration of normal blood-brain barrier integrity on completion of chemotherapy. These findings strongly suggest that complexed melarsoprol could be employed as an oral treatment for CNS-stage HAT, delivering considerable improvements over current parenteral chemotherapy

Stage progression and neurological symptoms in Trypanosoma brucei rhodesiense sleeping sickness: role of the CNS inflammatory response

Background: Human African trypanosomiasis progresses from an early (hemolymphatic) stage, through CNS invasion to the late (meningoencephalitic) stage. In experimental infections disease progression is associated with neuroinflammatory responses and neurological symptoms, but this concept requires evaluation in African trypanosomiasis patients, where correct diagnosis of the disease stage is of critical therapeutic importance. Methodology/Principal Findings: This was a retrospective study on a cohort of 115 T.b.rhodesiense HAT patients recruited in Eastern Uganda. Paired plasma and CSF samples allowed the measurement of peripheral and CNS immunoglobulin and of CSF cytokine synthesis. Cytokine and immunoglobulin expression were evaluated in relation to disease duration, stage progression and neurological symptoms. Neurological symptoms were not related to stage progression (with the exception of moderate coma). Increases in CNS immunoglobulin, IL-10 and TNF-α synthesis were associated with stage progression and were mirrored by a reduction in TGF-β levels in the CSF. There were no significant associations between CNS immunoglobulin and cytokine production and neurological signs of disease with the exception of moderate coma cases. Within the study group we identified diagnostically early stage cases with no CSF pleocytosis but intrathecal immunoglobulin synthesis and diagnostically late stage cases with marginal CSF pleocytosis and no detectable trypanosomes in the CSF. Conclusions: Our results demonstrate that there is not a direct linkage between stage progression, neurological signs of infection and neuroinflammatory responses in rhodesiense HAT. Neurological signs are observed in both early and late stages, and while intrathecal immunoglobulin synthesis is associated with neurological signs, these are also observed in cases lacking a CNS inflammatory response. While there is an increase in inflammatory cytokine production with stage progression, this is paralleled by increases in CSF IL-10. As stage diagnostics, the CSF immunoglobulins and cytokines studied do not have sufficient sensitivity to be of clinical value

Medical mycology and fungal immunology : new research perspectives addressing a major world health challenge

N.A.R.G. is supported by grants from The Wellcome Trust and MRC. M.G.N. is supported by an ERC consolidator grant (no. 310372).Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Spatially and genetically distinct African trypanosome virulence variants defined by host interferon-g response

We describe 2 spatially distinct foci of human African trypansomiasis in eastern Uganda. The Tororo and Soroti foci of <i>Trypanosoma brucei rhodesiense</i> infection were genetically distinct as characterized by 6 microsatellite and 1 minisatellite polymorphic markers and were characterized by differences in disease progression and host-immune response. In particular, infections with the Tororo genotype exhibited an increased frequency of progression to and severity of the meningoencephalitic stage and higher plasma interferon (IFN)–γ concentration, compared with those with the Soroti genotype. We propose that the magnitude of the systemic IFN-γ response determines the time at which infected individuals develop central nervous system infection and that this is consistent with the recently described role of IFN-γ in facilitating blood-brain barrier transmigration of trypanosomes in an experimental model of infection. The identification of trypanosome isolates with differing disease progression phenotypes provides the first field-based genetic evidence for virulence variants in T. <i>brucei rhodesiense</i>

Assessing the Health of Richibucto Estuary with the Latent Health Factor Index

The ability to quantitatively assess the health of an ecosystem is often of great interest to those tasked with monitoring and conserving ecosystems. For decades, research in this area has relied upon multimetric indices of various forms. Although indices may be numbers, many are constructed based on procedures that are highly qualitative in nature, thus limiting the quantitative rigour of the practical interpretations made from these indices. The statistical modelling approach to construct the latent health factor index (LHFI) was recently developed to express ecological data, collected to construct conventional multimetric health indices, in a rigorous quantitative model that integrates qualitative features of ecosystem health and preconceived ecological relationships among such features. This hierarchical modelling approach allows (a) statistical inference of health for observed sites and (b) prediction of health for unobserved sites, all accompanied by formal uncertainty statements. Thus far, the LHFI approach has been demonstrated and validated on freshwater ecosystems. The goal of this paper is to adapt this approach to modelling estuarine ecosystem health, particularly that of the previously unassessed system in Richibucto in New Brunswick, Canada. Field data correspond to biotic health metrics that constitute the AZTI marine biotic index (AMBI) and abiotic predictors preconceived to influence biota. We also briefly discuss related LHFI research involving additional metrics that form the infaunal trophic index (ITI). Our paper is the first to construct a scientifically sensible model to rigorously identify the collective explanatory capacity of salinity, distance downstream, channel depth, and silt-clay content --- all regarded a priori as qualitatively important abiotic drivers --- towards site health in the Richibucto ecosystem.Comment: On 2013-05-01, a revised version of this article was accepted for publication in PLoS One. See Journal reference and DOI belo

Visual ecology of aphids – a critical review on the role of colours in host finding

We review the rich literature on behavioural responses of aphids (Hemiptera: Aphididae) to stimuli of different colours. Only in one species there are adequate physiological data on spectral sensitivity to explain behaviour crisply in mechanistic terms. Because of the great interest in aphid responses to coloured targets from an evolutionary, ecological and applied perspective, there is a substantial need to expand these studies to more species of aphids, and to quantify spectral properties of stimuli rigorously. We show that aphid responses to colours, at least for some species, are likely based on a specific colour opponency mechanism, with positive input from the green domain of the spectrum and negative input from the blue and/or UV region. We further demonstrate that the usual yellow preference of aphids encountered in field experiments is not a true colour preference but involves additional brightness effects. We discuss the implications for agriculture and sensory ecology, with special respect to the recent debate on autumn leaf colouration. We illustrate that recent evolutionary theories concerning aphid–tree interactions imply far-reaching assumptions on aphid responses to colours that are not likely to hold. Finally we also discuss the implications for developing and optimising strategies of aphid control and monitoring

Effects of isopropanol on collagen fibrils in new parchment

Background: Isopropanol is widely used by conservators to relax the creases and folds of parchment artefacts. At present, little is known of the possible side effects of the chemical on parchments main structural component- collagen. This study uses X-ray Diffraction to investigate the effects of a range of isopropanol concentrations on the dimensions of the nanostructure of the collagen component of new parchment. Results: It is found in this study that the packing features of the collagen molecules within the collagen fibril are altered by exposure to isopropanol. The results suggest that this chemical treatment can induce a loss of structural water from the collagen within parchment and thus a rearrangement of intermolecular bonding. This study also finds that the effects of isopropanol treatment are permanent to parchment artefacts and cannot be reversed with rehydration using deionised water. Conclusions: This study has shown that isopropanol induces permanent changes to the packing features of collagen within parchment artefacts and has provided scientific evidence that its use to remove creases and folds on parchment artefacts will cause structural change that may contribute to long-term deterioration of parchment artefacts. This work provides valuable information that informs conservation practitioners regarding the use of isopropanol on parchment artefacts