Testing the implications of a permanent or seasonal marine reserve on the population dynamics of Eastern Baltic cod under varying environmental conditions

A spatially disaggregated, discrete time, age-structured model for the Eastern Baltic cod (Gadus morhua callarias L.) stock was constructed, in order to test the implications of the establishment of a marine reserve in the Baltic Sea. Functional relationships for recruitment and predation mortality were developed by multiple regression analyses. The resultant model output compares well with observed data from the fishery. The model was then applied to simulate stock development over a 50 year time period using different management policies and a variety of environmental conditions. The investigated management policies reduce fishing mortality and range from a moratorium on the Eastern Baltic cod fishery via the establishment of a permanent or a seasonal marine reserve in ICES subdivision 25 to a fishing as usual scenario. The environmental conditions incorporated were based on the size of the reproductive volume (RV) and comprise a best case and a worst case of reproductive conditions, and two more realistic scenarios, where we assumed that a historic series of RV-sizes reoccurs over the simulation period. Our results show a strong dependence of stock dynamics on the environmental conditions. Under prevailing low RV, our model projects stock extinction by the year 2020, if fishing continues as usual. Under the restrictive scenarios, where fishing mortality is reduced either directly or by implementation of a marine reserve, the stock benefits from an increase in stock size and an improved age structure. A seasonal closure of subdivision (SD) 25 as opposed to a closure of the entire Baltic Sea appears to be sufficient to prevent the Eastern Baltic cod stock from failing below safe biological limits

Attrition and bias in the MRC cognitive function and ageing study: an epidemiological investigation

BACKGROUND: Any hypothesis in longitudinal studies may be affected by attrition and poor response rates. The MRC Cognitive Function and Ageing study (MRC CFAS) is a population based longitudinal study in five centres with identical methodology in England and Wales each recruiting approximately 2,500 individuals. This paper aims to identify potential biases in the two-year follow-up interviews. METHODS: Initial non-response: Those not in the baseline interviews were compared in terms of mortality to those who were in the baseline interviews at the time of the second wave interviews (1993–1996). Longitudinal attrition: Logistic regression analysis was used to examine baseline differences between individuals who took part in the two-year longitudinal wave compared with those who did not. RESULTS: Initial non-response: Individuals who moved away after sampling but before baseline interview were 1.8 times more likely to die by two years (95% Confidence interval(CI) 1.3–2.4) compared to respondents, after adjusting for age. The refusers had a slightly higher, but similar mortality pattern to responders (Odds ratio 1.2, 95%CI 1.1–1.4). Longitudinal attrition: Predictors for drop out due to death were being older, male, having impaired activities of daily living, poor self-perceived health, poor cognitive ability and smoking. Similarly individuals who refused were more likely to have poor cognitive ability, but had less years of full-time education and were more often living in their own home though less likely to be living alone. There was a higher refusal rate in the rural centres. Individuals who moved away or were uncontactable were more likely to be single, smokers, demented or depressed and were less likely to have moved if in warden-controlled accommodation at baseline. CONCLUSIONS: Longitudinal estimation of factors mentioned above could be biased, particularly cognitive ability and estimates of movements from own home to residential homes. However, these differences could also affect other investigations, particularly the estimates of incidence and longitudinal effects of health and psychiatric diseases, where the factors shown here to be associated with attrition are risk factors for the diseases. All longitudinal studies should investigate attrition and this may help with aspects of design and with the analysis of specific hypotheses

Event generator tunes obtained from underlying event and multiparton scattering measurements

New sets of parameters (“tunes”) for the underlying-event (UE) modelling of the pythia8, pythia6 and herwig++ Monte Carlo event generators are constructed using different parton distribution functions. Combined fits to CMS UE proton–proton (pp) data at √s =7TeV and to UE proton–antiproton (pp ¯) data from the CDF experiment at lower √s, are used to study the UE models and constrain their parameters, providing thereby improved predictions for proton–proton collisions at 13TeV. In addition, it is investigated whether the values of the parameters obtained from fits to UE observables are consistent with the values determined from fitting observables sensitive to double-parton scattering processes. Finally, comparisons are presented of the UE tunes to “minimum bias” (MB) events, multijet, and Drell–Yan (qq ¯ →Z/γ ∗ → lepton-antilepton+jets) observables at 7 and 8TeV, as well as predictions for MB and UE observables at 13TeV.

Self-Assembled Two-Dimensional Nanoporous Crystals as MolecularSieves: Molecular Dynamics Studies of 1,3,5-Tristyrilbenzene‑CnSuperstructures

International audienceDue to their unique geometry complex, self-assembled nanoporous 2D molecular crystals offer a broad landscape ofpotential applications, ranging from adsorption and catalysis to optoelectronics, substrate processes, and future nanomachineapplications. Here we report and discuss the results of extensive all-atom Molecular Dynamics (MD) investigations of self-assembledorganic monolayers (SAOM) of interdigitated 1,3,5-tristyrilbenzene (TSB) molecules terminated by alkoxy peripheral chains Cncontaining n carbon atoms (TSB3,5-Cn) deposited onto highly ordered pyrolytic graphite (HOPG). In vacuo structural andelectronic properties of the TSB3,5-Cn molecules were initially determined using ab initio second order Møller−Plesset (MP2)calculations. The MD simulations were then used to analyze the behavior of the self-assembled superlattices, including relaxed latticegeometry (in good agreement with experimental results) and stability at ambient temperatures. We show that the intermoleculardisordering of the TSB3,5-Cn monolayers arises from competition between decreased rigidity of the alkoxy chains (loss ofintramolecular order) and increased stabilization with increasing chain length (afforded by interdigitation). We show that theinclusion of guest organic molecules (e.g., benzene, pyrene, coronene, hexabenzocoronene) into the nanopores (voids formed byinterdigitated alkoxy chains) of the TSB3,5-Cn superlattices stabilizes the superstructure, and we highlight the importance of alkoxychain mobility and available pore space in the dynamics of the systems and their potential application in selective adsorption

Computer modeling of 2D supramolecularnanoporous monolayers self-assembled ongraphite†

International audienceNano-porous two-dimensional molecular crystals, self-assembled on atomically flat host surfaces offer abroad range of possible applications, from molecular electronics to future nano-machines. Computerassisteddesigning of such complex structures requires numerically intensive modeling methods. Here wepresent the results of extensive, fully atomistic simulations of self-assembled monolayers of interdigitatedmolecules of 1,3,5-tristyrilbenzene substituted by C6 alkoxy peripheral chains (TSB3,5-C6), depositedonto highly-ordered pyrolytic graphite. Structural and electronic properties of the TSB3,5-C6 moleculeswere determined from ab initio calculations, then used in Molecular Dynamics simulations to analyze themechanism of formation, epitaxy, and stability of the TSB3,5-C6 nanoporous superlattice. We show thatthe monolayer disordering results from the competition between flexibility of the C6 chains and theirstabilization by interdigitation. The inclusion of guest molecules (benzene and pyrene) into superlatticenanopores stabilizes the monolayer. The alkoxy chain mobility and available pore space defines thesystems dynamics, essential for potential application