Verification of heat stress thresholds for a health-based heatwave definition

Heatwaves represent a threat to human health and excess mortality is one of the associated negative effects. A health-based definition for heatwaves is therefore relevant, especially for early warning purposes, and it is here investigated via the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI). The UTCI is a bioclimate index elaborated via an advanced model of human thermo-regulation that estimates the thermal stress induced by air temperature, wind speed, moisture and radiation on the human physiology. Using France as a testbed, the UTCI was computed from meteorological reanalysis data to assess the thermal stress conditions associated to heat-attributable excess mortality in five cities. UTCI values at different climatological percentiles were defined and evaluated in their ability to identify periods of excess mortality (PEMs) over 24 years. Using verification metrics such as the probability of detection (POD), the false alarm ratio (FAR) and the frequency bias (FB), daily minimum and maximum heat stress levels equal or above corresponding UTCI 95th percentiles (15±2°C and 34.5±1.5°C, respectively) for 3 consecutive days are demonstrated to correlate to PEMs with the highest sensitivity and specificity (0.69 ≤ POD ≤ 1, 0.19 ≤ FAR ≤ 0.46, 1 ≤ FB ≤ 1.48) than minimum, maximum and mean heat stress level singularly and other bioclimatological percentiles. This finding confirms the detrimental effect of prolonged, unusually high heat stress at day and night time and suggests the UTCI 95th percentile as a health meaningful threshold for a potential heat health watch warning system

High-performance functional renormalization group calculations for interacting fermions

We derive a novel computational scheme for functional Renormalization Group (fRG) calculations for interacting fermions on 2D lattices. The scheme is based on the exchange parametrization fRG for the two-fermion interaction, with additional insertions of truncated partitions of unity. These insertions decouple the fermionic propagators from the exchange propagators and lead to a separation of the underlying equations. We demonstrate that this separation is numerically advantageous and may pave the way for refined, large-scale computational investigations even in the case of complex multiband systems. Furthermore, on the basis of speedup data gained from our implementation, it is shown that this new variant facilitates efficient calculations on a large number of multi-core CPUs. We apply the scheme to the $t$,$t'$ Hubbard model on a square lattice to analyze the convergence of the results with the bond length of the truncation of the partition of unity. In most parameter areas, a fast convergence can be observed. Finally, we compare to previous results in order to relate our approach to other fRG studies.Comment: 26 pages, 9 figure

Chiral Rings of Deconstructive [SU(n_c)]^N Quivers

Dimensional deconstruction of 5D SQCD with general n_c, n_f and k_CS gives rise to 4D N=1 gauge theories with large quivers of SU(n_c) gauge factors. We construct the chiral rings of such [SU(n_c)]^N theories, off-shell and on-shell. Our results are broadly similar to the chiral rings of single U(n_c) theories with both adjoint and fundamental matter, but there are also some noteworthy differences such as nonlocal meson-like operators where the quark and antiquark fields belong to different nodes of the quiver. And because our gauge groups are SU(n_c) rather than U(n_c), our chiral rings also contain a whole zoo of baryonic and antibaryonic operators.Comment: 93 pages, LaTeX, PSTricks macros; 1 reference added in v

Mapping combined wildfire and heat stress hazards to improve evidence-based decision making

Heat stress and forest fires are often considered highly correlated hazards as extreme temperatures play a key role in both occurrences. This commonality can influence how civil protection and local responders deploy resources on the ground and could lead to an underestimation of potential impacts, as people could be less resilient when exposed to multiple hazards. In this work, we provide a simple methodology to identify areas prone to concurrent hazards, exemplified with, but not limited to, heat stress and fire danger. We use the combined heat and forest fire event that affected Europe in June 2017 to demonstrate that the methodology can be used for analysing past events as well as making predictions, by using reanalysis and medium-range weather forecasts, respectively. We present new spatial layers that map the combined danger and make suggestions on how these could be used in the context of a Multi-Hazard Early Warning System. These products could be particularly valuable in disaster risk reduction and emergency response management, particularly for civil protection, humanitarian agencies and other first responders whose role is to identify priorities during pre-interventions and emergencies

Numerical modelling of gas-water-rock interactions in volcanic-hydrothermal environment: the Ischia Island (Southern Italy) case study.

Hydrothermal systems hosted within active volcanic systems represent an excellent opportunity to investigate the interactions between aquifer rocks, infiltrating waters and deep-rising magmatic fluids, and thus allow deriving information on the activity state of dormant volcanoes. From a thermodynamic perspective, gas-water-rock interaction processes are normally far from equilibrium, but can be represented by an array of chemical reactions, in which irreversible mass transfer occurs from host rock minerals to leaching solutions, and then to secondary hydrothermal minerals. While initially developed to investigate interactions in near-surface groundwater environments, the reaction path modeling approach of Helgeson and co-workers can also be applied to quantitative investigation of reactions in high T-P environments. Ischia volcano, being the site of diffuse hydrothermal circulation, is an ideal place where to test the application of reaction-path modeling. Since its last eruption in 1302 AD, Ischia has shown a variety of hydrothermal features, including fumarolic emissions, diffuse soil degassing and hot waters discharges. These are the superficial manifestation of an intense hydrothermal circulation at depth. A recent work has shown the existence of several superposed aquifers; the shallowest (near to boiling) feeds the numerous surface thermal discharges, and is recharged by both superficial waters and deeper and hotter (150-260° C) hydrothermal reservoir fluids. Here, we use reaction path modelling (performed by using the code EQ3/6) to quantitatively constrain the compositional evolution of Ischia thermal fluids during their hydrothermal flow. Simulations suggest that compositions of Ischia groundwaters are buffered by interactions between reservoir rocks and recharge waters (meteoric fluids variably mixed - from 2 to 80% - with seawater) at shallow aquifer conditions. A CO2 rich gaseous phase is also involved in the interaction processes (fCO2 = 0.4-0.6 bar). Overall, our model calculations satisfactorily reproduce the main chemical features of Ischia groundwaters. In the model runs, attainment of partial to complete equilibrium with albite and K-feldspar fixes the Na/K ratios of the model solutions at values closely matching those of natural samples. Precipitation of secondary phases, mainly clay minerals (smectite and saponite) and zeolites (clinoptilolite), during the reaction path is able to well explain the large Mg-depletions which characterise Ischia thermal groundwaters; while pyrite and troilite are shown to control sulphur abundance in aqueous solutions. SiO2(aq) contents in model simulations fit those measured in groundwaters and are being buffered by the formation of quartz polymorphs and Si-bearing minerals. Finally, our simulations are able to reproduce redox conditions and Fe-depletion trends of natural samples. We conclude that reaction path modelling is an useful tool for quantitative exploration of chemical process within volcano-hosted hydrothermal systems

Quantitative models of hydrothermal fluid–mineral reaction:The Ischia case

The intricate pathways of fluid–mineral reactions occurring underneath active hydrothermal systems are explored in this study by applying reaction path modelling to the Ischia case study. Ischia Island, in Southern Italy, hosts a well-developed and structurally complex hydrothermal system which, because of its heterogeneity in chemical and physical properties, is an ideal test sites for evaluating potentialities/limitations of quantitative geochemical models of hydrothermal reactions. We used the EQ3/6 software package, version 7.2b, to model reaction of infiltrating waters (mixtures of meteoric water and seawater in variable proportions) with Ischia’s reservoir rocks (the Mount Epomeo Green Tuff units; MEGT). The mineral assemblage and composition of such MEGT units were initially characterised by ad hoc designed optical microscopy and electron microprobe analysis, showing that phenocrysts (dominantly alkali–feldspars and plagioclase) are set in a pervasively altered (with abundant clay minerals and zeolites) groundmass. Reaction of infiltrating waters with MEGT minerals was simulated over a range of realistic (for Ischia) temperatures (95–260° C) and CO2 fugacities (10 ^-0.2 to 10^0.5) bar. During the model runs, a set of secondary minerals (selected based on independent information from alteration minerals’ studies) was allowed to precipitate from model solutions, when saturation was achieved. The compositional evolution of model solutions obtained in the 95–260°C runs were finally compared with compositions of Ischia’s thermal groundwaters, demonstrating an overall agreement. Our simulations, in particular, well reproduce the Mg-depleting maturation path of hydrothermal solutions, and have end-of-run model solutions whose Na–K–Mg compositions well reflect attainment of full-equilibrium conditions at run temperature. High-temperature (180–260° C) model runs are those best matching the Na–K–Mg compositions of Ischia’s most chemically mature water samples, supporting quenching of deep-reservoir conditions for these surface manifestations; whilst Fe, SiO2 and, to a lesser extent, SO4 contents of natural samples are better reproduced in low-temperature (95°C) runs, suggesting that these species reflect conditions of water–rock interaction in the shallow hydrothermal environment. The ability of model runs to reproduce the compositional features of Ischia’s thermal manifestations, demonstrated here, adds supplementary confidence on reaction path modelling as a realistic and insightful representation of mineral–fluid hydrothermal reactions. Our results, in particular, demonstrate the significant impact of host rock minerals’ assemblage in governing the paths and trends of hydrothermal fluids’ maturation

First observations of the fumarolic gas output from a restless caldera: implications for the current period of unrest (2005–2013) at Campi Flegrei

The fumarolic gas output has not been quantified for any of the currently deforming calderas worldwide, due to the lack of suitable gas flux sensing techniques. In view of resumption of ground uplift (since 2005) and the associated variations in gas chemistry, Campi Flegrei, in southern Italy, is one of the restless calderas where gas flux observations are especially necessary. Here we report the first ever obtained estimate of the Campi Flegrei fumarolic gas output, based on a set of MultiGAS surveys (performed in 2012 and 2013) with an ad-hoc-designed measurement setup. We estimate that the current Campi Flegrei fumarolic sulphur (S) flux is low, on the order of 1.5–2.2 tons/day, suggesting substantial scrubbing of magmatic S by the hydrothermal system. However, the fumarolic carbon dioxide (CO2) output is 4606160 tons/day (mean6SD), which is surprisingly high for a dormant volcano in the hydrothermal stage of activity, and results in a combined (fumarolesþsoil) CO2 output of 1560 tons/ day. Assuming magma to be the predominant source, we propose that the current CO2 output can be supplied by either (i) a large (0.6–4.6 km3), deeply stored (>7 km) magmatic source with low CO2 contents (0.05–0.1 wt%) or (ii) by a small to medium-sized ( 0.01–0.1 km3) but CO2-rich (2 wt%) magma, possibly stored at pressures of 100 to 120 MPa. Independent geophysical evidence (e.g., inferred from geodetic and gravity data) is needed to distinguish between these two possibilities