Exploring the Implications of Monetary Policy Normalisation for Irish Mortgage Arrears. Quarterly Economic Commentary Special Article, Spring 2019.

The current level of the monetary policy rate in the Eurozone is low both by international and historical standards and will likely rise over the coming years. In this Article we consider what the impact of a rise in ECB policy rates would mean for the Irish mortgage market. First, we examine the structure of the Irish mortgage market in terms of interest rate contract types and explore the link between the mortgage rate and the policy rate. Second, we draw out the results of policy modelling linking arrears and interest rates using a model put forward in Slaymaker et al. (2019). We then use this model to provide some further scenarios exploring the impact of interest rate rises on the arrears rate for particular groups of Irish households. Our findings suggest a 25 basis point increase in the policy rate would lead to a 0.1 percentage point increase in new missed mortgage payments. While households are in a better economic position to withstand policy rate increases given the recovery in the labour market and in house prices, rate rises would lead to payments rising faster than long-term income growth. Younger, lower income households who are at an earlier stage in their mortgage contract are more at risk, as are households on tracker interest rates who have a contractual pass-through from the policy rate to the lending rate

High-speed single-molecule tracking of CXCL13 in the B-Follicle

Soluble factors are an essential means of communication between cells and their environment. However, many molecules readily interact with extracellular matrix components, giving rise to multiple modes of diffusion. The molecular quantification of diffusion in situ is thus a challenging imaging frontier, requiring very high spatial and temporal resolution. Overcoming this methodological barrier is key to understanding the precise spatial patterning of the extracellular factors that regulate immune function. To address this, we have developed a high-speed light microscopy system capable of millisecond sampling in ex vivo tissue samples and sub-millisecond sampling in controlled in vitro samples to characterize molecular diffusion in a range of complex microenvironments. We demonstrate that this method outperforms competing tools for determining molecular mobility of fluorescence correlation spectroscopy (FCS) and fluorescence recovery after photobleaching (FRAP) for evaluation of diffusion. We then apply this approach to study the chemokine CXCL13, a key determinant of lymphoid tissue architecture, and B-cell mediated immunity. Super-resolution single-molecule tracking of fluorescently labeled CCL19 and CXCL13 in collagen matrix was used to assess the heterogeneity of chemokine mobility behaviors, with results indicating an immobile fraction and a mobile fraction for both molecules, with distinct diffusion rates of 8.4 ± 0.2 µm2s-1 and 6.2 ± 0.3 µm2s-1 respectively. To better understand mobility behaviors in situ we analyzed CXCL13-AF647 diffusion in murine lymph node tissue sections and observed both an immobile fraction and a mobile fraction with a diffusion coefficient of 6.6 ± 0.4 µm2s 1, suggesting that mobility within the follicle is also multimodal. In quantitatively studying mobility behaviors at the molecular level, we have obtained an increased understanding of CXCL13 bioavailability within the follicle. Our high-speed single-molecule tracking approach affords a novel perspective from which to understand the mobility of soluble factors relevant to the immune system

Exomoon simulations

We introduce and describe our newly developed code that simulates light curves and radial velocity curves for arbitrary transiting exoplanets with a satellite. The most important feature of the program is the calculation of radial velocity curves and the Rossiter-McLaughlin effect in such systems. We discuss the possibilities for detecting the exomoons taking the abilities of Extremely Large Telescopes into account. We show that satellites may be detected also by their RM effect in the future, probably using less accurate measurements than promised by the current instrumental developments. Thus, RM effect will be an important observational tool in the exploration of exomoons.Comment: 5 pages, 2 figures with 9 figure panels, accepted by EM&

Follow-up observations of pulsating subdwarf B stars: Multisite campaigns on PG 1618+563B and PG 0048+091

We present follow-up observations of pulsating subdwarf B (sdB) stars as part of our efforts to resolve the pulsation spectra for use in asteroseismological analyses. This paper reports on multisite campaigns of the pulsating sdB stars PG 1618+563B and PG 0048+091. Data were obtained from observatories placed around the globe for coverage from all longitudes. For PG 1618+563B, our five-site campaign uncovered a dichotomy of pulsation states: Early during the campaign the amplitudes and phases (and perhaps frequencies) were quite variable while data obtained late in the campaign were able to fully resolve five stable pulsation frequencies. For PG 0048+091, our five-site campaign uncovered a plethora of frequencies with short pulsation lifetimes. We find them to have observed properties consistent with stochastically excited oscillations, an unexpected result for subdwarf B stars. We discuss our findings and their impact on subdwarf B asteroseismology.Comment: 50 pages including 17 figures and 10 tables. Accepted for publication in the Astrophysical Journa

Slowing down atomic diffusion in subdwarf B stars: mass loss or turbulence?

Subdwarf B stars show chemical peculiarities that cannot be explained by diffusion theory alone. Both mass loss and turbulence have been invoked to slow down atomic diffusion in order to match observed abundances. The fact that some sdB stars show pulsations gives upper limits on the amount of mass loss and turbulent mixing allowed. Consequently, non-adiabatic asteroseismology has the potential to decide which process is responsible for the abundance anomalies. We compute for the first time seismic properties of sdB models with atomic diffusion included consistently during the stellar evolution. The diffusion equations with radiative forces are solved for H, He, C, N, O, Ne, Mg, Fe and Ni. We examine the effects of various mass-loss rates and mixed surface masses on the abundances and mode stability. It is shown that the mass-loss rates needed to simulate the observed He abundances (10^{-14}<=Mdot [Msun/yr]<=10^{-13}) are not consistent with observed pulsations. We find that for pulsations to be driven the rates should be Mdot<=10^{-15} Msun/yr. On the other hand, weak turbulent mixing of the outer 10^{-6} Msun can explain the He abundance anomalies while still allowing pulsations to be driven. The origin of the turbulence remains unknown but the presence of pulsations gives tight constraints on the underlying turbulence model.Comment: 12 pages, 8 figures, 1 table, accepted for publication in MNRA

Assessing the spatial impact of policy interventions on real-estate values: an exemplar of the use of the hybrid hedonic/repeat-sales method

This paper sets out to make a contribution to the extensive literature that seeks to develop methods that allow rigorous and robust analysis of the spatial and temporal impacts of public policy interventions on property (real-estate) values. It argues that the hybrid repeat-sales/hedonic method developed in real-estate studies over the last 30 years has considerable, but as yet under-developed, potential as a policy analysis tool. Using data from Glasgow, UK, the empirical analysis illustrates how the technique can be used to understand the spatial spillovers and the dynamic temporal effects of a historic £100 million state-led, area-based, urban-renewal programme, New Life for Urban Scotland. The paper concludes by arguing that, with the rise in the availability of rich geocoded, micro-datasets, this framework is sufficiently flexible to be used to evaluate the real-estate market impacts of a wide range of public policy interventions. Significantly, as the case study demonstrates, the framework overcomes some of the sustained criticisms of the more commonly used hedonic modelling approach. There is, however, still much to do to enhance the technical qualities of the models through further application

First Kepler results on compact pulsators II: KIC 010139564, a new pulsating subdwarf B (V361 Hya) star with an additional low-frequency mode

We present the discovery of nonradial pulsations in a hot subdwarf B star based on 30.5 days of nearly continuous time-series photometry using the \emph{Kepler} spacecraft. KIC 010139564 is found to be a short-period pulsator of the V361 Hya (EC 14026) class with more than 10 independent pulsation modes whose periods range from 130 to 190 seconds. It also shows one periodicity at a period of 3165 seconds. If this periodicity is a high order g-mode, then this star may be the hottest member of the hybrid DW Lyn stars. In addition to the resolved pulsation frequencies, additional periodic variations in the light curve suggest that a significant number of additional pulsation frequencies may be present. The long duration of the run, the extremely high duty cycle, and the well-behaved noise properties allow us to explore the stability of the periodic variations, and to place strong constraints on how many of them are independent stellar oscillation modes. We find that most of the identified periodicities are indeed stable in phase and amplitude, suggesting a rotation period of 2-3 weeks for this star, but further observations are needed to confirm this suspicion.Comment: 10 pages, accepted for publication in MNRA

Social representations and the politics of participation

Recent work has called for the integration of different perspectives into the field of political psychology (Haste, 2012). This chapter suggests that one possible direction that such efforts can take is studying the role that social representations theory (SRT) can play in understanding political participation and social change. Social representations are systems of common-sense knowledge and social practice; they provide the lens through which to view and create social and political realities, mediate people's relations with these sociopolitical worlds and defend cultural and political identities. Social representations are therefore key for conceptualising participation as the activity that locates individuals and social groups in their sociopolitical world. Political participation is generally seen as conditional to membership of sociopolitical groups and therefore is often linked to citizenship. To be a citizen of a society or a member of any social group one has to participate as such. Often political participation is defined as the ability to communicate one's views to the political elite or to the political establishment (Uhlaner, 2001), or simply explicit involvement in politics and electoral processes (Milbrath, 1965). However, following scholars on ideology (Eagleton, 1991; Thompson, 1990) and social knowledge (Jovchelovitch, 2007), we extend our understanding of political participation to all social relations and also develop a more agentic model where individuals and groups construct, develop and resist their own views, ideas and beliefs. We thus adopt a broader approach to participation in comparison to other political-psychological approaches, such as personality approaches (e.g. Mondak and Halperin, 2008) and cognitive approaches or, more recently, neuropsychological approaches (Hatemi and McDermott, 2012). We move away from a focus on the individual's political behaviour and its antecedents and outline an approach that focuses on the interaction between psychological and political phenomena (Deutsch and Kinnvall, 2002) through examining the politics of social knowledge

Planetary detection limits taking into account stellar noise. I. Observational strategies to reduce stellar oscillation and granulation effects

The radial velocity signature of stellar noise is small, around the meter-per-second, but already too much for the detection of Earth mass planets in habitable zones. In this paper, we address the important role played by observational strategies in averaging out the radial velocity signature of stellar noise. We also derive the planetary mass detection limits expected in presence of stellar noise. We start with HARPS asteroseismology measurements for 4 stars (beta Hyi, alpha Cen A, mu Ara and tau Ceti) available in the ESO archive plus very precise measurements of alpha Cen B. This sample covers different spectral types, from G2 to K1 and different evolutionary stage, from subgiant to dwarf stars. Since the span of our data ranges between 5 to 8 days, we will have access to oscillation modes and granulation phenomena, without important contribution of activity noise which is present at larger time scales. For those 5 stars, we generate synthetic radial velocity measurements after fitting corresponding models of stellar noise in Fourier space. These measurements allows us to study the radial velocity variation due to stellar noise for different observational strategies as well as the corresponding planetary mass detection limits. Applying 3 measurements per night of 10 minutes exposure each, 2 hours apart, seems to average out most efficiently the stellar noise considered. For quiet K1V stars as alpha Cen B, such a strategy allows us to detect planets of ~3 times the mass of Earth with an orbital period of 200 days, corresponding to the habitable zone of the star. Since activity is not yet included in our simulation, these detection limits correspond to a case, which exist, where the host star has few magnetic features. In this case stellar noise is dominated by oscillation modes and granulation phenomena.Comment: 12 pages, 6 figures, Accepted for publication in A&

Solar-like oscillations in the G2 subgiant beta Hydri from dual-site observations

We have observed oscillations in the nearby G2 subgiant star beta Hyi using high-precision velocity observations obtained over more than a week with the HARPS and UCLES spectrographs. The oscillation frequencies show a regular comb structure, as expected for solar-like oscillations, but with several l=1 modes being strongly affected by avoided crossings. The data, combined with those we obtained five years earlier, allow us to identify 28 oscillation modes. By scaling the large frequency separation from the Sun, we measure the mean density of beta Hyi to an accuracy of 0.6%. The amplitudes of the oscillations are about 2.5 times solar and the mode lifetime is 2.3 d. A detailed comparison of the mixed l=1 modes with theoretical models should allow a precise estimate of the age of the star.Comment: 13 pages, 14 figures, accepted by ApJ. Fixed minor typo (ref to Fig 14