Structural Breaks and Non-Linearities for Predicting the Probability of US Recessions using the Spread

This paper proposes a structural break threshold model (SBT) to the dynamic relationship between US output growth and the spread between long- and short-term interest rates. This model is able to account for non-linearities, parameter changes and the reduction of the variability of output growth. The SBT model gives better in-sample predictions of the probability of US recessions during 1955-1999 than models with only non-linearity or structural breaks. The presence of a structural break affects the timing and the size of predictions of the probability of recession for 2001.

Looking ahead: anticipatory gaze and motor ability in infancy

The present study asks when infants are able to selectively anticipate the goals of observed actions, and how this ability relates to infants' own abilities to produce those specific actions. Using eye-tracking technology to measure on-line anticipation, 6-, 8- and 10-month-old infants and a control group of adults were tested while observing an adult reach with a whole hand grasp, a precision grasp or a closed fist towards one of two different sized objects. The same infants were also given a comparable action production task. All infants showed proactive gaze to the whole hand grasps, with increased degrees of proactivity in the older groups. Gaze proactivity to the precision grasps, however, was present from 8 months of age. Moreover, the infants' ability in performing precision grasping strongly predicted their ability in using the actor's hand shape cues to differentially anticipate the goal of the observed action, even when age was partialled out. The results are discussed in terms of the specificity of action anticipation, and the fine-grained relationship between action production and action perception

Adaptive use of the Marshall theatre building at 4th St. and Houston Ave., Manhattan, Kansas

Call number: LD2668 .T4 ARCH 1987 G72Master of ArchitectureArchitectur

Facilitated spin models of dissipative quantum glasses

We introduce a class of dissipative quantum spin models with local interactions and without quenched disorder that show glassy behaviour. These models are the quantum analogs of the classical facilitated spin models. Just like their classical counterparts, quantum facilitated models display complex glassy dynamics despite the fact that their stationary state is essentially trivial. In these systems, dynamical arrest is a consequence of kinetic constraints and not of static ordering. These models display a quantum version of dynamic heterogeneity: the dynamics towards relaxation is spatially correlated despite the absence of static correlations. Associated dynamical fluctuation phenomena such as decoupling of timescales is also observed. Moreover, we find that close to the classical limit quantum fluctuations can enhance glassiness, as recently reported for quantum liquids.Comment: 7 pages, 6 figure

Tuning the atomic and domain structure of epitaxial films of multiferroic BiFeO3

Recent works have shown that the domain walls of room-temperature multiferroic BiFeO3 (BFO) thin films can display distinct and promising functionalities. It is thus important to understand the mechanisms underlying domain formation in these films. High-resolution x-ray diffraction and piezo-force microscopy, combined with first-principles simulations, have allowed us to characterize both the atomic and domain structure of BFO films grown under compressive strain on (001)-SrTiO3, as a function of thickness. We derive a twining model that describes the experimental observations and explains why the 71o domain walls are the ones commonly observed in these films. This understanding provides us with a new degree of freedom to control the structure and, thus, the properties of BiFeO3 thin films.Comment: RevTeX; 4 two-column pages; 4 color figures. Figure 2b does not seem to display well. A proper version can be found in the source fil