Improving medium-range ensemble weather forecasts with hierarchical ensemble transformers

Statistical post-processing of global ensemble weather forecasts is revisited by leveraging recent developments in machine learning. Verification of past forecasts is exploited to learn systematic deficiencies of numerical weather predictions in order to boost post-processed forecast performance. Here, we introduce PoET, a post-processing approach based on hierarchical transformers. PoET has 2 major characteristics: 1) the post-processing is applied directly to the ensemble members rather than to a predictive distribution or a functional of it, and 2) the method is ensemble-size agnostic in the sense that the number of ensemble members in training and inference mode can differ. The PoET output is a set of calibrated members that has the same size as the original ensemble but with improved reliability. Performance assessments show that PoET can bring up to 20% improvement in skill globally for 2m temperature and 2% for precipitation forecasts and outperforms the simpler statistical member-by-member method, used here as a competitive benchmark. PoET is also applied to the ENS10 benchmark dataset for ensemble post-processing and provides better results when compared to other deep learning solutions that are evaluated for most parameters. Furthermore, because each ensemble member is calibrated separately, downstream applications should directly benefit from the improvement made on the ensemble forecast with post-processing

Utility of multispectral imaging for nuclear classification of routine clinical histopathology imagery

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>We present an analysis of the utility of multispectral versus standard RGB imagery for routine H&E stained histopathology images, in particular for pixel-level classification of nuclei. Our multispectral imagery has 29 spectral bands, spaced 10 nm within the visual range of 420–700 nm. It has been hypothesized that the additional spectral bands contain further information useful for classification as compared to the 3 standard bands of RGB imagery. We present analyses of our data designed to test this hypothesis.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>For classification using all available image bands, we find the best performance (equal tradeoff between detection rate and false alarm rate) is obtained from either the multispectral or our "ccd" RGB imagery, with an overall increase in performance of 0.79% compared to the next best performing image type. For classification using single image bands, the single best multispectral band (in the red portion of the spectrum) gave a performance increase of 0.57%, compared to performance of the single best RGB band (red). Additionally, red bands had the highest coefficients/preference in our classifiers. Principal components analysis of the multispectral imagery indicates only two significant image bands, which is not surprising given the presence of two stains.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Our results indicate that multispectral imagery for routine H&E stained histopathology provides minimal additional spectral information for a pixel-level nuclear classification task than would standard RGB imagery.</p

Precise temporal regulation of alternative splicing during neural development

Alternative splicing (AS) is one crucial step of gene expression that must be tightly regulated during neurodevelopment. However, the precise timing of developmental splicing switches and the underlying regulatory mechanisms are poorly understood. Here we systematically analyze the temporal regulation of AS in a large number of transcriptome profiles of developing mouse cortices, in vivo purified neuronal subtypes, and neurons differentiated in vitro. Our analysis reveals early-switch and late-switch exons in genes with distinct functions, and these switches accurately define neuronal maturation stages. Integrative modeling suggests that these switches are under direct and combinatorial regulation by distinct sets of neuronal RNA-binding proteins including Nova, Rbfox, Mbnl, and Ptbp. Surprisingly, various neuronal subtypes in the sensory systems lack Nova and/or Rbfox expression. These neurons retain the “immature” splicing program in early-switch exons, affecting numerous synaptic genes. These results provide new insights into the organization and regulation of the neurodevelopmental transcriptome

Profiling allele-specific gene expression in brains from individuals with autism spectrum disorder reveals preferential minor allele usage.

One fundamental but understudied mechanism of gene regulation in disease is allele-specific expression (ASE), the preferential expression of one allele. We leveraged RNA-sequencing data from human brain to assess ASE in autism spectrum disorder (ASD). When ASE is observed in ASD, the allele with lower population frequency (minor allele) is preferentially more highly expressed than the major allele, opposite to the canonical pattern. Importantly, genes showing ASE in ASD are enriched in those downregulated in ASD postmortem brains and in genes harboring de novo mutations in ASD. Two regions, 14q32 and 15q11, containing all known orphan C/D box small nucleolar RNAs (snoRNAs), are particularly enriched in shifts to higher minor allele expression. We demonstrate that this allele shifting enhances snoRNA-targeted splicing changes in ASD-related target genes in idiopathic ASD and 15q11-q13 duplication syndrome. Together, these results implicate allelic imbalance and dysregulation of orphan C/D box snoRNAs in ASD pathogenesis

Coupled Analysis of In Vitro and Histology Tissue Samples to Quantify Structure-Function Relationship

The structure/function relationship is fundamental to our understanding of biological systems at all levels, and drives most, if not all, techniques for detecting, diagnosing, and treating disease. However, at the tissue level of biological complexity we encounter a gap in the structure/function relationship: having accumulated an extraordinary amount of detailed information about biological tissues at the cellular and subcellular level, we cannot assemble it in a way that explains the correspondingly complex biological functions these structures perform. To help close this information gap we define here several quantitative temperospatial features that link tissue structure to its corresponding biological function. Both histological images of human tissue samples and fluorescence images of three-dimensional cultures of human cells are used to compare the accuracy of in vitro culture models with their corresponding human tissues. To the best of our knowledge, there is no prior work on a quantitative comparison of histology and in vitro samples. Features are calculated from graph theoretical representations of tissue structures and the data are analyzed in the form of matrices and higher-order tensors using matrix and tensor factorization methods, with a goal of differentiating between cancerous and healthy states of brain, breast, and bone tissues. We also show that our techniques can differentiate between the structural organization of native tissues and their corresponding in vitro engineered cell culture models

Multiscale Feature Analysis of Salivary Gland Branching Morphogenesis

Pattern formation in developing tissues involves dynamic spatio-temporal changes in cellular organization and subsequent evolution of functional adult structures. Branching morphogenesis is a developmental mechanism by which patterns are generated in many developing organs, which is controlled by underlying molecular pathways. Understanding the relationship between molecular signaling, cellular behavior and resulting morphological change requires quantification and categorization of the cellular behavior. In this study, tissue-level and cellular changes in developing salivary gland in response to disruption of ROCK-mediated signaling by are modeled by building cell-graphs to compute mathematical features capturing structural properties at multiple scales. These features were used to generate multiscale cell-graph signatures of untreated and ROCK signaling disrupted salivary gland organ explants. From confocal images of mouse submandibular salivary gland organ explants in which epithelial and mesenchymal nuclei were marked, a multiscale feature set capturing global structural properties, local structural properties, spectral, and morphological properties of the tissues was derived. Six feature selection algorithms and multiway modeling of the data was performed to identify distinct subsets of cell graph features that can uniquely classify and differentiate between different cell populations. Multiscale cell-graph analysis was most effective in classification of the tissue state. Cellular and tissue organization, as defined by a multiscale subset of cell-graph features, are both quantitatively distinct in epithelial and mesenchymal cell types both in the presence and absence of ROCK inhibitors. Whereas tensor analysis demonstrate that epithelial tissue was affected the most by inhibition of ROCK signaling, significant multiscale changes in mesenchymal tissue organization were identified with this analysis that were not identified in previous biological studies. We here show how to define and calculate a multiscale feature set as an effective computational approach to identify and quantify changes at multiple biological scales and to distinguish between different states in developing tissues

m^6A RNA methylation promotes XIST-mediated transcriptional repression

The long non-coding RNA X-inactive specific transcript (XIST) mediates the transcriptional silencing of genes on the X chromosome. Here we show that, in human cells, XIST is highly methylated with at least 78 N^6-methyladenosine (m^6A) residues—a reversible base modification of unknown function in long non-coding RNAs. We show that m^6A formation in XIST, as well as in cellular mRNAs, is mediated by RNA-binding motif protein 15 (RBM15) and its paralogue RBM15B, which bind the m^6A-methylation complex and recruit it to specific sites in RNA. This results in the methylation of adenosine nucleotides in adjacent m^6A consensus motifs. Furthermore, we show that knockdown of RBM15 and RBM15B, or knockdown of methyltransferase like 3 (METTL3), an m^6A methyltransferase, impairs XIST-mediated gene silencing. A systematic comparison of m^6A-binding proteins shows that YTH domain containing 1 (YTHDC1) preferentially recognizes m^6A residues on XIST and is required for XIST function. Additionally, artificial tethering of YTHDC1 to XIST rescues XIST-mediated silencing upon loss of m^6A. These data reveal a pathway of m^6A formation and recognition required for XIST-mediated transcriptional repression

Genetic instability and anti-HPV immune response as drivers of infertility associated with HPV infection

Funding Information: RFBR grant 17–54-30002, Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Russian Federation (Agreement No. 075–15–2019-1660) to Olga Smirnova. Publisher Copyright: © 2021, The Author(s).Human papillomavirus (HPV) is a sexually transmitted infection common among men and women of reproductive age worldwide. HPV viruses are associated with epithelial lesions and cancers. HPV infections have been shown to be significantly associated with many adverse effects in reproductive function. Infection with HPVs, specifically of high-oncogenic risk types (HR HPVs), affects different stages of human reproduction, resulting in a series of adverse outcomes: 1) reduction of male fertility (male infertility), characterized by qualitative and quantitative semen alterations; 2) impairment of couple fertility with increase of blastocyst apoptosis and reduction of endometrial implantation of trophoblastic cells; 3) defects of embryos and fetal development, with increase of spontaneous abortion and spontaneous preterm birth. The actual molecular mechanism(s) by which HPV infection is involved remain unclear. HPV-associated infertility as Janus, has two faces: one reflecting anti-HPV immunity, and the other, direct pathogenic effects of HPVs, specifically, of HR HPVs on the infected/HPV-replicating cells. Adverse effects observed for HR HPVs differ depending on the genotype of infecting virus, reflecting differential response of the host immune system as well as functional differences between HPVs and their individual proteins/antigens, including their ability to induce genetic instability/DNA damage. Review summarizes HPV involvement in all reproductive stages, evaluate the adverse role(s) played by HPVs, and identifies mechanisms of viral pathogenicity, common as well as specific for each stage of the reproduction process.publishersversionPeer reviewe

Why Are Outcomes Different for Registry Patients Enrolled Prospectively and Retrospectively? Insights from the Global Anticoagulant Registry in the FIELD-Atrial Fibrillation (GARFIELD-AF).

Background: Retrospective and prospective observational studies are designed to reflect real-world evidence on clinical practice, but can yield conflicting results. The GARFIELD-AF Registry includes both methods of enrolment and allows analysis of differences in patient characteristics and outcomes that may result. Methods and Results: Patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) and ≥1 risk factor for stroke at diagnosis of AF were recruited either retrospectively (n = 5069) or prospectively (n = 5501) from 19 countries and then followed prospectively. The retrospectively enrolled cohort comprised patients with established AF (for a least 6, and up to 24 months before enrolment), who were identified retrospectively (and baseline and partial follow-up data were collected from the emedical records) and then followed prospectively between 0-18 months (such that the total time of follow-up was 24 months; data collection Dec-2009 and Oct-2010). In the prospectively enrolled cohort, patients with newly diagnosed AF (≤6 weeks after diagnosis) were recruited between Mar-2010 and Oct-2011 and were followed for 24 months after enrolment. Differences between the cohorts were observed in clinical characteristics, including type of AF, stroke prevention strategies, and event rates. More patients in the retrospectively identified cohort received vitamin K antagonists (62.1% vs. 53.2%) and fewer received non-vitamin K oral anticoagulants (1.8% vs . 4.2%). All-cause mortality rates per 100 person-years during the prospective follow-up (starting the first study visit up to 1 year) were significantly lower in the retrospective than prospectively identified cohort (3.04 [95% CI 2.51 to 3.67] vs . 4.05 [95% CI 3.53 to 4.63]; p = 0.016). Conclusions: Interpretations of data from registries that aim to evaluate the characteristics and outcomes of patients with AF must take account of differences in registry design and the impact of recall bias and survivorship bias that is incurred with retrospective enrolment. Clinical Trial Registration: - URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov . Unique identifier for GARFIELD-AF (NCT01090362)