Keynesian Dynamics and the Wage-Price Spiral:Estimating and Analyzing a Baseline Disequilibrium Approach

In this paper, we reformulate the theoretical baseline DAS-AD model of Asada, Chen, Chiarella and Flaschel (2004) to allow for its somewhat simplified empirical estimation. The model now exhibits a Taylor interest rate rule in the place of an LM curve and a dynamic IS curve and dynamic employment adjustment. It is based on sticky wages and prices, perfect foresight of current inflation rates and adaptive expectations concerning the inflation climate in which the economy is operating. The implied nonlinear 6D model of real markets disequilibrium dynamics avoids striking anomalies of the old Neoclassical synthesis and can be usefully compared with the model of the new Neoclassical Synthesis when the latter is based on both staggered prices and wages. It exhibits typical Keynesian feedback structures with asymptotic stability of its steady state for low adjustment speeds and with cyclical loss of stability -- by way of Hopf bifurcations -- when certain adjustment speeds are made sufficiently large. In the second part we provide system estimates of the equations of the model in order to study its stability features based on empirical parameter estimates with respect to its various feedback channels. Based on these estimates we find that the dynamics is strongly convergent around the steady state, but will loose this feature if the inflationary climate variable adjusts sufficiently fast. We also study to which extent more active interest rate feedback rules or downward wage rigidity can stabilize the dynamics in the large when the steady state is made locally repelling by a faster adjustment of inflationary expectations. We find support for the orthodox view that (somewhat restricted) money wage flexibility is the most important stabilizer in this framework, while monetary policy should allow for sufficient steady state inflation in order to avoid stability problems in areas of the phase space where wages are still not very flexible in a downward directionDAS-DAD growth, wage and price Phillips curves, nonlinear estimation, stability, economic breakdown, persistent cycles, monetary policy.

The earth's climate at the end of the century

Local climate is dependent on the global climate. Here, a global picture on climate change is presented using predictions from the EC-Earth simulations for the end of the century. The results indicate a general rise in annual mean temperature everywhere: 2-4 degrees (global average), 1-6 degrees (over Europe) and 1-4 degrees (Ireland). Changes in precipitation are more varied: large increases (>100%) at high northern latitudes and in the equatorial Pacific but decreases of more than 50% over the subtropics; winters in Europe are predicted to be up to 20% wetter and summers up to 20% drier. Changes in extremes are also presented in this chapter

Stock market, interest rate and output: a model and estimation for US time series data

Stock market, interest rate and output: a model and estimation for US time series dat

Extended-spectrum β-lactamase-producing and AmpC-producing Escherichia coli from livestock and companion animals, and their putative impact on public health: a global perspective

AbstractThe possible zoonotic spread of antimicrobial-resistant bacteria is controversial. This review discusses global molecular epidemiological data combining both analyses of the chromosomal background, using multilocus sequence typing (MLST), and analyses of plasmid (episomal) extended-spectrum β-lactamase (ESBL)/AmpC genes in Escherichia coli present in humans and animals. For consideration of major epidemiological differences, animals were separated into livestock and companion animals. MLST revealed the existence of ESBL-producing isolates thoughout the E. coli population, with no obvious association with any ancestral EcoR group. A similar distribution of major ESBL/AmpC types was apparent only in human isolates, regardless of their geographical origin from Europe, Asia, or the Americas, whereas in animals this varied extensively between animal groups and across different geographical areas. In contrast to the diversity of episomal ESBL/AmpC types, isolates from human and animals mainly shared identical sequence types (STs), suggesting transmission or parallel micro-evolution. In conclusion, the opinion that animal ESBL-producing E. coli is a major source of human infections is oversimplified, and neglects a highly complex scenario

Do sequential lineups impair underlying discriminability?

© 2020, The Author(s). Debate regarding the best way to test and measure eyewitness memory has dominated the eyewitness literature for more than 30 years. We argue that resolution of this debate requires the development and application of appropriate measurement models. In this study we developed models of simultaneous and sequential lineup presentations and used these to compare these procedures in terms of underlying discriminability and response bias, thereby testing a key prediction of diagnostic feature detection theory, that underlying discriminability should be greater for simultaneous than for stopping-rule sequential lineups. We fit the models to the corpus of studies originally described by Palmer and Brewer (2012, Law and Human Behavior, 36(3), 247–255), to data from a new experiment and to eight recent studies comparing simultaneous and sequential lineups. We found that although responses tended to be more conservative for sequential lineups there was little or no difference in underlying discriminability between the two procedures. We discuss the implications of these results for the diagnostic feature detection theory and other kinds of sequential lineups used in current jurisdictions

The impact of the climate change on discharge of Suir River Catchment (Ireland) under different climate scenarios

International audienceThe impact of climate change on local discharge variability is investigated in the Suir River Catchment which is located in the south-east of Ireland. In this paper, the Rossby Centre Regional Atmospheric Model (RCA) is driven by different global climate data sets. For the past climate (1961?2000), the model is driven by ECMWF reanalysis (ERA-40) data as well as by the output of the general circulation models (GCM's) ECHAM4 and ECHAM5. For the future simulation (2021?2060), the model is driven by two GCM scenarios: ECHAM4_B2 and ECHAM5_A2. To investigate the influence of changed future climate on local discharge, the precipitation of the model output is used as input for the HBV hydrological model. The calibration and validation results of our ERA-40 driven present day simulation shows that the HBV model can reproduce the discharge fairly well, except the extreme discharge is systematically underestimated by about 15?20%. Altogether the application of a high resolution regional climate model in connection with a conceptual hydrological model is capable of capturing the local variability of river discharge for present-day climate using boundary values assimilated with observations such as ERA-40 data. However, using GCM data to drive RCA and HBV suggests, that there is still large uncertainty connected with the GCM formulation: For present day climate the validation of the ECHAM4 and ECHAM5 driven simulations indicates stronger discharge compared to the observations due to overprediction of precipitation, especially for the ECHAM5 driven simulation in the summer season. Whereas according to the ECHAM4_B2 scenario the discharge generally increases ? most pronounced in the wet winter time, there are only slight increases in winter and considerable decreases in summer according to the ECHAM5_A2 scenario. This also leads to a different behaviour in the evolution of return levels of extreme discharge events: Strong increases according to the ECHAM4_B2 scenario and slight decreases according to the ECHAM5_A2 scenario

Effects of a Four-Week High-Dosage Zinc Oxide Supplemented Diet on Commensal Escherichia coli of Weaned Pigs

Strategies to reduce economic losses associated with post-weaning diarrhea in pig farming include high-level dietary zinc oxide supplementation. However, excessive usage of zinc oxide in the pig production sector was found to be associated with accumulation of multidrug resistant bacteria in these animals, presenting an environmental burden through contaminated manure. Here we report on zinc tolerance among a random selection of intestinal Escherichia coli comprising of different antibiotic resistance phenotypes and sampling sites isolated during a controlled feeding trial from 16 weaned piglets: In total, 179 isolates from “pigs fed with high zinc concentrations” (high zinc group, [HZG]: n = 99) and a corresponding “control group” ([CG]: n = 80) were investigated with regard to zinc tolerance, antimicrobial- and biocide susceptibilities by determining minimum inhibitory concentrations (MICs). In addition, in silico whole genome screening (WGSc) for antibiotic resistance genes (ARGs) as well as biocide- and heavy metal tolerance genes was performed using an in-house BLAST-based pipeline. Overall, porcine E. coli isolates showed three different ZnCl2 MICs: 128 μg/ml (HZG, 2%; CG, 6%), 256 μg/ml (HZG, 64%; CG, 91%) and 512 μg/ml ZnCl2 (HZG, 34%, CG, 3%), a unimodal distribution most likely reflecting natural differences in zinc tolerance associated with different genetic lineages. However, a selective impact of the zinc-rich supplemented diet seems to be reasonable, since the linear mixed regression model revealed a statistically significant association between “higher” ZnCl2 MICs and isolates representing the HZG as well as “lower ZnCl2 MICs” with isolates of the CG (p = 0.005). None of the zinc chloride MICs was associated with a particular antibiotic-, heavy metal- or biocide- tolerance/resistance phenotype. Isolates expressing the 512 μg/ml MIC were either positive for ARGs conferring resistance to aminoglycosides, tetracycline and sulfamethoxazole-trimethoprim, or harbored no ARGs at all. Moreover, WGSc revealed a ubiquitous presence of zinc homeostasis and – detoxification genes, including zitB, zntA, and pit. In conclusion, we provide evidence that zinc-rich supplementation of pig feed selects for more zinc tolerant E. coli, including isolates harboring ARGs and biocide- and heavy metal tolerance genes – a putative selective advantage considering substances and antibiotics currently used in industrial pork production systems

Cultivating healthy skepticism towards help-seeking advertisements: Dispelling the illusion of unique invulnerability

Poster PresentationBackground: Consumers are, possibly, unaware of the distinction between an industry-sponsored and a government-sponsored help-seeking ad. In order for consumers to make an informed assessment of a help-seeking ad, they need to be educated about this distinction. Methods: We report on two experiments (n Experiment 1 = 113, n Experiment 2 = 111) that investigated the impact of an educational intervention that was delivered online. Results: Intervention group participants had better odds of correctly identifying the sponsor and had greater skepticism towards pharmaceutical advertising compared to the control group. Intervention group participants were less likely to regard the ad as valuable and were more likely to view the ad as advertising, only when it was industry-sponsored. Conclusion: Our research has demonstrated that consumers do not differentiate between an industry-sponsored and a government-sponsored help-seeking ad. The use of a simple educational intervention can increase a person’s motivation to examine these ads more critically and help mitigate this problem.Brennan Ong, Carolyn Semmler, Peter Richard Mansfieldhttp://spspmeeting.org/2014/General-Info.asp

Predicting overprecision in range estimation

Theme for 2016: Recognizing and representing eventsOverprecision (overconfidence in interval estimation) is a bias with clear implications for economic outcomes in industries reliant on forecasting possible ranges for future prices and unknown states of nature - such as mineral and petroleum exploration. Prior research has shown the ranges people provide are too narrow given the knowledge they have – that is, they underestimate uncertainty and are overconfident in their knowledge. The underlying causes of this bias are, however, still unclear and individual differences research has shed little light on traits predictive of susceptibility. Taking this as a starting point, this paper directly contrasts the Naïve Sampling Model and Informativeness-Accuracy Tradeoff accounts of overprecision – seeing which better predicts performance in an interval estimation task. This was achieved by identifying traits associated with these theories – Short Term Memory and Need for Cognitive Closure, respectively. Analyses indicate that NFCC but not STM predicts interval width and thus, potentially, impacts overprecision.Matthew Kaesler, Matthew B. Welsh, Carolyn Semmle