The occupation of a box as a toy model for the seismic cycle of a fault

We illustrate how a simple statistical model can describe the quasiperiodic occurrence of large earthquakes. The model idealizes the loading of elastic energy in a seismic fault by the stochastic filling of a box. The emptying of the box after it is full is analogous to the generation of a large earthquake in which the fault relaxes after having been loaded to its failure threshold. The duration of the filling process is analogous to the seismic cycle, the time interval between two successive large earthquakes in a particular fault. The simplicity of the model enables us to derive the statistical distribution of its seismic cycle. We use this distribution to fit the series of earthquakes with magnitude around 6 that occurred at the Parkfield segment of the San Andreas fault in California. Using this fit, we estimate the probability of the next large earthquake at Parkfield and devise a simple forecasting strategy.Comment: Final version of the published paper, with an erratum and an unpublished appendix with some proof

Preliminary Report on the 22 December 2003, M 6.5 San Simeon, California Earthquake

The Mw 6.5 San Simeon earthquake struck the central California coast on 22 December 2003 at 19:15:56 UTC (11:15:56 am local time.) The epicenter was located 11 km northeast of the town of San Simeon, and 39 km west-northwest of Paso Robles (Figure 1), as reported by the California Integrated Seismic Network (CISN, the California region of the Advanced National Seismic System [ANSS]). The mainshock nucleated at 35.702°N, 121.108°W and a depth of 7.1 km, and the rupture propagated unilaterally to the southeast. The strong directivity of the rupture resulted in a concentration of damage and aftershock..

Temporal change in groundwater level following the 1999 (Mw = 7.5) Chi-Chi earthquake, Taiwan

We examine the post-seismic change in the groundwater level following the 1999 (Mw = 7.5) Chi-Chi earthquake in central Taiwan, as recorded by a network of 70 evenly distributed hydrological stations over a large alluvial fan near the epicenter. Four types of post-seismic responses may be distinguished: In type 1, the groundwater level declined exponentially with time following a coseismic rise. This was the most common response in the study area and occurred in unconsolidated sediments on the Choshui River fan. In type 2, the groundwater level rose exponentially with time following a coseismic fall. This occurred in the deformed and fractured sedimentary rocks in the foothills near the Chelungpu fault that ruptured in the Chi-Chi earthquake. In type 3, the groundwater level continued to decline with time following a coseismic fall. This also occurred in the deformed and fractured sedimentary rocks near the ruptured fault. Finally, in type 4, the groundwater level, following a coseismic rise, stayed at the same level or even rose with time before it eventually declined. This occurred mostly in unconsolidated sediments along the coast of central Taiwan and along the Peikang Stream. We analyze these post-seismic responses by using a one-dimensional model. Together with the results from well test, the analysis show that the type 1 response may be explained by an aquifer model with coseismic recharge and post-seismic subhorizontal discharge across a length of 500-5,000 m; the type 2 response may be explained by a model of coseismic discharge and post-seismic recharge from surface water; the type 3 response may be explained by a model of coseismic discharge and post-seismic subhorizontal discharge across a length of 500-5,000 m; and the type 4 response may be explained by a model of coseismic recharge and sustained post-seismic recharge from surface water. The characteristic time for the post-seismic changes is similar to that for the groundwater-level decline during dry seasons before the earthquake, suggesting that there was no earthquake-induced changes in the aquifer properties (i.e., hydraulic conductivity), confirming the earlier results from recession analyses of the post-seismic streamflow elsewhere after several earthquakes

Disturbance of deep-sea environments induced by the M9.0 Tohoku Earthquake

The impacts of the M9.0 Tohoku Earthquake on deep-sea environment were investigated 36 and 98 days after the event. The light transmission anomaly in the deep-sea water after 36 days became atypically greater (∼35%) and more extensive (thickness ∼1500 m) near the trench axis owing to the turbulent diffusion of fresh seafloor sediment, coordinated with potential seafloor displacement. In addition to the chemical influx associated with sediment diffusion, an influx of 13C-enriched methane from the deep sub-seafloor reservoirs was estimated. This isotopically unusual methane influx was possibly triggered by the earthquake and its aftershocks that subsequently induced changes in the sub-seafloor hydrogeologic structures. The whole prokaryotic biomass and the development of specific phylotypes in the deep-sea microbial communities could rise and fall at 36 and 98 days, respectively, after the event. We may capture the snap shots of post-earthquake disturbance in deep-sea chemistry and microbial community responses

The Mw = 6.3, November 21, 2004, Les Saintes earthquake (Guadeloupe): Tectonic setting, slip model and static stress changes,

International audienceOn November 21, 2004, a magnitude 6.3 earthquake occurred offshore, 10 km south of Les Saintes archipelago in Guadeloupe (French West Indies). There were more than 30000 aftershocks recorded in the following two years, most of them at shallow depth near the islands of the archipelago. The main shock and its main aftershock of February 14, 2005 (Mw = 5.8) ruptured a NE-dipping normal fault (Roseau fault), mapped and identified as active from high-resolution bathymetric data a few years before. This fault belongs to an arc-parallel en echelon fault system that follows the inner edge of the northern part of the Lesser Antilles arc, accommodating the sinistral component of oblique convergence between the North American and Caribbean plates. The distribution of aftershocks and damage (destruction and landslides) are consistent with the main fault plane location and attitude. The slip model of the main shock, obtained by inverting jointly global broadband and local strong motion records, is characterized by two main slip zones located 5 to 10 km to the SE and NW of the hypocenter. The main shock is shown to have increased the Coulomb stress at the tips of the ruptured plane by more than 4 bars where most of the aftershocks occurred, implying that failures on fault system were mainly promoted by static stress changes. The earthquake also had an effect on volcanic activity since the Boiling Lake in Dominica drained twice, probably as a result of the extensional strain induced by the earthquake and its main aftershock