Complete information pivotal-voter model with asymmetric group size

We study the equilibria of the standard pivotal-voter participation game between two groups of voters of asymmetric sizes (majority and minority), as originally proposed by Palfrey and Rosenthal (Public Choice 41(1):7–53, 1983). We find a unique equilibrium wherein the minority votes with certainty and the majority votes with probability in (0,1); we prove that this is the only equilibrium in which voters of only one group play a pure strategy, and we provide sufficient conditions for its existence. Equilibria where voters of both groups vote with probability in (0, 1) are analyzed numerically

Complete information pivotal-voter model with asymmetric group size and asymmetric benefits

We analyse a standard pivotal-voter model under majority rule, with two rival groups of players, each preferring one of two public policies and simultaneously deciding whether to cast a costly vote, as in Palfrey and Rosenthal (1983). We allow the benefit of the favorite public policy to differ across groups and impose an intuitive refinement, namely that voting probabilities are continuous in the cost of voting to pin down a unique equilibrium. The unique continuous equilibrium depends on a key threshold that compares the sizes of the two groups

Social capital, communication channels and opinion formation

We study how different forms of social capital lead to different distributions of multidimensional opinions by affecting the channels through which individuals communicate. We develop a model to compare and contrast the evolution of opinions between societies whose members communicate through bonding associations (i.e., which bond similar people together) and societies where communication is through bridging associations (i.e., which bridge the gap among different people). Both processes converge towards opinion distributions where there are groups within which there is consensus in all issues. Bridging processes are more likely to lead to society-wide consensus and converge to distributions that have, on average, fewer opinion groups. The latter result holds even when the confidence bound that allows successful communication in the bridging process is much smaller than the respective bound in the bonding process

How influential is ballot design in elections?

We exploit an original dataset from a referendum in Peru to study the influence of voting "arrangements" on electoral outcomes. The relative importance of these arrangements (e.g., ballot design) with respect to the fundamentals (e.g., ideology, candidates' quality) has not been measured. After controlling for a comprehensive set of politicians' characteristics, we estimate unbiased ballot order effects making use of the within party variation in outcomes. We estimate a non-linear probability model and we create counterfactuals to conclude that ballot design not only may have changed the electoral results but also has a greater importance than candidates' ideology, education, experience and party affiliation

Heteropolyacids supported on zirconia-doped γ, θ and α alumina: A physicochemical assessment and characterisation of supported solid acids

In this paper we carry out a surface study of promising supported solid acid catalysts commonly used for the production of high value chemicals derived from glycerol. In particular, γ, θ and α alumina (Al2O3) were modified by (i) grafting with 5 wt% zirconia, (ii) doping with 30 wt% silicotungstic acid (STA), and (iii) using both zirconia and STA. The aim is to rationalise the effect of these different parameters on structural properties and surface adsorption through a comprehensive multi-technique approach, including recently developed NMR relaxation techniques. XRD and laser Raman spectroscopy confirmed a strong interaction between STA and the γ-/θ-Al2O3 resulting in a distortion of the supported STA Keggin structure relative to that of bulk STA. Conversely, a much weaker interaction between the supported STA and α-Al2O3 was measured. NMR relaxation demonstrated that the STA doping increases the adsorption properties of the catalyst, particularly for γ-/θ-Al2O3. For catalysts based on α-Al2O3, such effect was negligible. Thermogravimetric/differential thermogravimetry (TGA/DTG) analysis suggested that zirconia-grafted and non-grafted θ-Al2O3 and γ-Al2O3 are suitable materials for increasing the thermal stability of STA whereas α-Al2O3 (both grafted and non-grafted) does not improve the thermal stability of STA

Incorporating dose effects in network meta-analysis

Systematic reviews with network meta-analysis that ignore potential dose effects could limit the applicability and validity of review findings. This article aims to help content experts (eg, clinicians), methodologists, and statisticians better understand how to incorporate dose effects in network meta-analysis. Three models are described that make different clinical and statistical assumptions about how to model dose effects. This article also illustrates the importance of dose effects in understanding the potential risk of harm in people with dementia from cerebrovascular events associated with atypical antipsychotic drug use (quetiapine, olanzapine, and risperidone) and the potential risk of harm in people with nausea and headache associated with cholinesterase inhibitor use (donepezil, galantamine, and rivastigmine). Finally, important considerations when choosing between different network meta-analysis models incorporating dose effects are discussed

Multi-insecticide resistant malaria vectors in the field remain susceptible to malathion, despite the presence of Ace1 point mutations

Insecticide resistance in Anopheles mosquitoes is seriously threatening the success of insecticide-based malaria vector control. Surveillance of insecticide resistance in mosquito populations and identifying the underlying mechanisms enables optimisation of vector control strategies. Here, we investigated the molecular mechanisms of insecticide resistance in three Anopheles coluzzii field populations from southern Cote d'Ivoire, including Agboville, Dabou and Tiassale. All three populations were resistant to bendiocarb, deltamethrin and DDT, but not or only very weakly resistant to malathion. The absence of malathion resistance is an unexpected result because we found the acetylcholinesterase mutation Ace1-G280S at high frequencies, which would typically confer cross-resistance to carbamates and organophosphates, including malathion. Notably, Tiassale was the most susceptible population to malathion while being the most resistant one to the pyrethroid deltamethrin. The resistance ratio to deltamethrin between Tiassale and the laboratory reference colony was 1,800 fold. By sequencing the transcriptome of individual mosquitoes, we found numerous cytochrome P450-dependent monooxygenases - including CYP6M2, CYP6P2, CYP6P3, CYP6P4 and CYP6P5 - overexpressed in all three field populations. This could be an indication for negative cross-resistance caused by overexpression of pyrethroid-detoxifying cytochrome P450s that may activate pro-insecticides, thereby increasing malathion susceptibility. In addition to the P450s, we found several overexpressed carboxylesterases, glutathione S-transferases and other candidates putatively involved in insecticide resistance

Retrieval of individual patient data depended on study characteristics : a randomized controlled trial

OBJECTIVE: To examine the effect of providing a financial incentive to authors of randomized clinical trials (RCTs) to obtain individual patient data (IPD). STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: Parallel-group RCT with authors identified in the RCTs eligible for two systematic reviews. The authors were randomly allocated to the intervention (financial incentive with several contact approaches) or control group (using the same contact approaches). Studied outcomes: proportion of authors who provided IPD, time to obtain IPD, and completeness of IPD received. RESULTS: Of the 129 authors contacted, 37 authors suggested or contacted a person/funder providing relevant details or showed interest to collaborate, while 45 authors directed us to contact a person/funder, lacked resources/time, did not have ownership/approval to share the IPD, or claimed IPD was too old. None of the authors shared their IPD. We contacted 17 sponsors and received two complete IPD datasets from one sponsor. The time to obtain IPD was >1 year after a sponsor's positive response. Common barriers included study identification, data ownership, limited data access, and required IPD licenses. CONCLUSIONS: IPD sharing may depend on study characteristics, including funding type, study size, study risk of bias, and treatment effect, but not on providing a financial incentive. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Clinical Trials.gov (NCT02569411), registered on October 5th, 2015