Decision making under uncertainty in environmental projects using mathematical simulation modeling

The final publication is available at Springer via http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s12665-016-6135-yIn decision-making processes, reliability and risk aversion play a decisive role. The aim of this study is to perform an uncertainty assessment of the effects of future scenarios of sustainable groundwater pumping strategies on the quantitative and chemical status of an aquifer. The good status of the aquifer is defined according to the terms established by the EU Water Framework Directive (WFD). A decision support systems (DSS) is presented, which makes use of a stochastic inverse model (GC method) and geostatistical approaches to calibrate equally likely realizations of hydraulic conductivity (K) fields for a particular case study. These K fields are conditional to available field data, including hard and soft information. Then, different future scenarios of groundwater pumping strategies are generated, based on historical information and WFD standards, and simulated for each one of the equally likely K fields. The future scenarios lead to different environmental impacts and levels of socioeconomic development of the region and, hence, to a different degree of acceptance among stakeholders. We have identified the different stakeholders implied in the decision-making process, the objectives pursued and the alternative actions that should be considered by stakeholders in a public participation project (PPP). The MonteCarlo simulation provides a highly effective way for uncertainty assessment and allows presenting the results in a simple and understandable way even for non-experts stakeholders. The methodology has been successfully applied to a real case study and lays the foundations to performa PPP and stakeholders' involvement in a decisionmaking process as required by the WFD. The results of the methodology can help the decision-making process to come up with the best policies and regulations for a groundwater system under uncertainty in groundwater parameters and management strategies and involving stakeholders with conflicting interests.Llopis Albert, C.; Palacios Marqués, D.; Merigó -Lindahl, JM. (2016). Decision making under uncertainty in environmental projects using mathematical simulation modeling. Environmental Earth Sciences. 75(19):1-11. doi:10.1007/s12665-016-6135-yS1117519Arhonditsis GB, Perhar G, Zhang W, Massos E, Shi M, Das A (2008) Addressing equifinality and uncertainty in eutrophication models. Water Resour Res 44:W01420. doi: 10.1029/2007WR005862Capilla JE, Llopis-Albert C (2009) Gradual conditioning of non-gaussian transmissivity fields to flow and mass transport data. 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Comput Geosci 16(4):395–440Harbaugh AW, Banta ER, Hill MC and McDonald MG (2000) MODFLOW- 2000, The US geological survey modular groundwater model-user guide to modularization concepts and the groundwater flow process. US Geol. Surv. Open-File Rep 00–92, 12Hu LY (2000) Gradual deformation and iterative calibration of Gaussian related stochastic models. Math Geol 32(1):87–108Jagelke J, Barthel R (2005) Conceptualization and implementation of a regional groundwater model for the Neckar catchment in the framework of an integrated regional model. Adv Geosci 5:105–111Llopis-Albert C (2008) Stochastic inverse modeling conditional to flow, mass transport and secondary information. Universitat Politècnica de València, València. ISBN 978-84-691-9796-7Llopis-Albert C, Capilla JE (2009a) Gradual conditioning of non-gaussian transmissivity fields to flow and mass transport data. Demonstration on a synthetic aquifer. J Hydrol 371:53–55. doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.03.014Llopis-Albert C, Capilla JE (2009b) Gradual conditioning of non-gaussian transmissivity fields to flow and mass transport data. Application to the macrodispersion experiment (MADE-2) site, on Columbus air force base in Mississippi (USA). J Hydrol 371:75–84. doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.03.016Llopis-Albert C, Capilla JE (2010a) Stochastic simulation of non-gaussian 3D conductivity fields in a fractured medium with multiple statistical populations: a case study. J Hydrol Eng 15(7):554–566. doi: 10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0000214Llopis-Albert C, Capilla JE (2010b) Stochastic inverse modeling of hydraulic conductivity fields taking into account independent stochastic structures: a 3D case study. J Hydrol 391:277–288. doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.07.028Llopis-Albert C, Pulido-Velazquez D (2014) Discussion about the validity of sharp-interface models to deal with seawater intrusion in coastal aquifers. Hydrol Process 28(10):3642–3654Llopis-Albert C, Pulido-Velazquez D (2015) Using MODFLOW code to approach transient hydraulic head with a sharp-interface solution. Hydrol Process 29(8):2052–2064. doi: 10.1002/hyp.10354Llopis-Albert C, Palacios-Marqués D, Merigó JM (2014) A coupled stochastic inverse-management framework for dealing with nonpoint agriculture pollution under groundwater parameter uncertainty. J Hydrol 511:10–16. doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.01.021Llopis-Albert C, Merigó JM, Palacios-Marqués D (2015) Structure adaptation in stochastic inverse methods for integrating information. Water Resour Manage 29(1):95–107. doi: 10.1007/s11269-014-0829-2Llopis-Albert C, Merigó JM, Xu Y (2016) A coupled stochastic inverse/sharp interface seawater intrusion approach for coastal aquifers under groundwater parameter uncertainty. J Hydrol 540:774–783. doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.06.065McDonald MG and Harbaugh AW (1988) A modular three-dimensional finite-difference groundwater flow model. US geological survey technical manual of water resources investigation, Book 6, US geological survey, Reston, Virginia, 586Molina JL, Pulido-Velazquez M, Llopis-Albert C, Peña-Haro S (2013) Stochastic hydro-economic model for groundwater quality management using Bayesian networks. Water Sci Technol 67(3):579–586. doi: 10.2166/wst.2012.598Peña-Haro S, Llopis-Albert C, Pulido-Velazquez M (2010) Fertilizer standards for controlling groundwater nitrate pollution from agriculture: El Salobral-Los Llanos case study, Spain. J Hydrol 392:174–187. doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.08.006Peña-Haro S, Pulido-Velazquez M, Llopis-Albert C (2011) Stochastic hydro-economic modeling for optimal management of agricultural groundwater nitrate pollution under hydraulic conductivity uncertainty. Environ Model Softw 26(8):999–1008. doi: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2011.02.010Pulido-Velazquez D, Llopis-Albert C, Peña-Haro S, Pulido-Velazquez M (2011) Efficient conceptual model for simulating the effect of aquifer heterogeneity on natural groundwater discharge to rivers. Adv Water Resour 34(11):1377–1389. doi: 10.1016/j.advwatres.2011.07.010Reichert P, Borsuk M, Hostmann M, Schweizer S, Spörri C, Tockner K, Truffer B (2005) Concepts of decision support for river rehabilitation. Environ Model Softw 22:188–201Wright SAL, Fritsch O (2011) Operationalising active involvement in the EU water framework directive: why, when and how? Ecol Econ 70(12):2268–2274Zhou H, Gómez-Hernández JJ, Li L (2014) Inverse methods in hydrogeology: evolution and recent trends. Adv Water Resour 63:22–37. doi: 10.1016/j.advwatres.2013.10.01

Use of technical computing systems in the context of engineering problems

[EN] This paper presents a teaching innovation project based on applying technical computing systems as a resource to improve learning in the classroom and as a way of evaluating transversal competences (TC). By these means, students analyze complex kinematic and dynamic mechanical systems in the context of the subject Dynamics of Mechanical Systems of the Master’s Degree in Mechatronics Engineering at Universitat Politècnica de València (Spain). We have observed that the use of such tools improves the students learning on the contents of the subject, allows to acquire the transversal competence related to the analysis and problem solving, and enhances the ability to understand concepts intuitively. Furthermore, results clearly show a positive influence on the use of such tools for improving the professional and ethical commitment to the issues raised.Llopis Albert, C.; Rubio Montoya, FJ.; Valle-Falcones, L.; Grima-Olmedo, C. (2020). Use of technical computing systems in the context of engineering problems. Multidisciplinary Journal for Education, Social and Technological Sciences. 7(2):84-99. https://doi.org/10.4995/muse.2020.14283OJS849972Artobolevsky, I.I. 1975. Mechanisms in Modern Engineering Design: A Handbook for Engineers, Designers and Inventors. Seven books. Mir Pubblishers, Moscow.Bloom, B.S. 1956. Taxonomy of Educational Objectives: The Classification of Educational Goals. David McKay Company, p. 201-7.Llopis-Albert, C., Rubio, F., Valero, F. 2015. Improving productivity using a multi-objective optimization of robotic trajectory planning. Journal of Business Research, 68 (7), 1429-1431. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbusres.2015.01.027Llopis-Albert, C., Rubio, F., Valero, F. (2018). Optimization approaches for robot trajectory planning. Multidisciplinary Journal for Education, Social and Technological Sciences, 5(1), 1-16. https://doi.org/10.4995/muse.2018.9867Llopis-Albert, C., Rubio, F., Valero, F. (2019). Fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis applied to the design of a network flow of automated guided vehicles for improving business productivity. Journal of Business Research, 101, 737-742. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbusres.2018.12.076Llopis-Albert, C., Rubio, F., Valero, F., Liao, H., Zeng, S. 2019a. Stochastic inverse finite element modeling for characterization of heterogeneous material properties. Materials Research Express, 6(11), 115806. https://doi.org/10.1088/2053-1591/ab4c72Llopis-Albert, C., Valero, F., Mata, V., Pulloquinga, J.L., Zamora-Ortiz, P., Escarabajal, R.J. 2020. Optimal Reconfiguration of a Parallel Robot for Forward Singularities Avoidance in Rehabilitation Therapies. A Comparison via Different Optimization Methods. Sustainability, 12(14), 5803. https://doi.org/10.3390/su12145803Llopis-Albert, C., Valero, F., Mata, V., Zamora-Ortiz, P., Escarabajal, R.J., Pulloquinga, J.L. 2020a. Optimal Reconfiguration of a Limited Parallel Robot for Forward Singularities Avoidance. Multidisciplinary Journal for Education, Social and Technological Sciences, 7(1), 113-127. https://doi.org/10.4995/muse.2020.13352Rubio, F., Llopis-Albert, C., Valero, F., Suñer, J.L. 2015. Assembly Line Productivity Assessment by Comparing Optimization-Simulation Algorithms of Trajectory Planning for Industrial Robots. Mathematical Problems in Engineering, 10 pages. Article ID 931048. https://doi.org/10.1155/2015/931048Rubio, F., Llopis-Albert, C., Valero, F., & Suñer, J. L. 2016. Industrial robot efficient trajectory generation without collision through the evolution of the optimal trajectory. Robotics and Autonomous Systems, 86, 106-112. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.robot.2016.09.008Rubio, F., Llopis-Albert, C. 2019. Viability of using wind turbines for electricity generation in electric vehicles. 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Water Policies and Conflict Resolution of Public Participation Decision-Making Processes Using Prioritized Ordered Weighted Averaging (OWA) Operators

[EN] There is a growing interest in environmental policies about how to implement public participation engagement in the context of water resources management. This paper presents a robust methodology, based on ordered weighted averaging (OWA) operators, to conflict resolution decision-making problems under uncertain environments due to both information and stakeholders' preferences. The methodology allows integrating heterogeneous interests of the general public and stakeholders on account of their different degree of acceptance or preference and level of influence or power regarding the measures and policies to be adopted, and also of their level of involvement (i.e., information supply, consultation and active involvement). These considerations lead to different environmental and socio-economic outcomes, and levels of stakeholders' satisfaction. The methodology establishes a prioritization relationship over the stakeholders. The individual stakeholders' preferences are aggregated through their associated weights, which depend on the satisfaction of the higher priority decision maker. The methodology ranks the optimal management strategies to maximize the stakeholders' satisfaction. It has been successfully applied to a real case study, providing greater fairness, transparency, social equity and consensus among actors. Furthermore, it provides support to environmental policies, such as the EU Water Framework Directive (WFD), improving integrated water management while covering a wide range of objectives, management alternatives and stakeholders.Llopis Albert, C.; Merigó-Lindahl, JM.; Liao, H.; Xu, Y.; Grima-Olmedo, J.; Grima-Olmedo, C. (2018). Water Policies and Conflict Resolution of Public Participation Decision-Making Processes Using Prioritized Ordered Weighted Averaging (OWA) Operators. 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Segura river basin authority http://www.chsegura.es/Dong JY, Wan SP (2016) A new method for prioritized multi-criteria group decision making with triangular intuitionistic fuzzy numbers. J Intell Fuzzy Syst 30:1719–1733EC (2000). Directive 2000/60/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of October 23 2000 Establishing a Framework for Community Action in the Field of Water Policy. Official Journal of the European Communities, L327/1eL327/72 22.12.2000Jackson S, Tan P-L, Nolan S (2012) Tools to enhance public participation and confidence in the development of the Howard East aquifer water plan, Northern Territory. J Hydrol 474:22–28Jin FF, Ni ZW, Chen HY (2016) Note on “Hesitant fuzzy prioritized operators and their application to multiple attribute decision making”. Knowl-Based Syst 96:115–119Kentel E, Aral MM (2007) Fuzzy Multiobjective Decision-Making Approach for Groundwater Resources Management. 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Integrated assessment of future potential global change scenarios and their hydrological impacts in coastal aquifers - a new tool to analyse management alternatives in the Plana Oropesa-Torreblanca aquifer

[EN] Any change in the components of the water balance in a coastal aquifer, whether natural or anthropogenic, can alter the freshwater-salt water equilibrium. In this sense climate change (CC) and land use and land cover (LULC) change might significantly influence the availability of groundwater resources in the future. These coastal systems demand an integrated analysis of quantity and quality issues to obtain an appropriate assessment of hydrological impacts using density-dependent flow solutions. The aim of this work is to perform an integrated analysis of future potential global change (GC) scenarios and their hydrological impacts in a coastal aquifer, the Plana Oropesa-Torreblanca aquifer. It is a Mediterranean aquifer that extends over 75 km(2) in which important historical LULC changes have been produced and are planned for the future. Future CC scenarios will be defined by using an equi-feasible and non-feasible ensemble of projections based on the results of a multi-criteria analysis of the series generated from several regional climatic models with different downscaling approaches. The hydrological impacts of these CC scenarios combined with future LULC scenarios will be assessed with a chain of models defined by a sequential coupling of rainfall-recharge models, crop irrigation requirements and irrigation return models (for the aquifer and its neighbours that feed it), and a density-dependent aquifer approach. This chain of models, calibrated using the available historical data, allow testing of the conceptual approximation of the aquifer behaviour. They are also fed with series representatives of potential global change scenarios in order to perform a sensitivity analysis regarding future scenarios of rainfall recharge, lateral flows coming from the hydraulically connected neighbouring aquifer, agricultural recharge (taking into account expected future LULC changes) and sea level rise (SLR). The proposed analysis is valuable for improving our knowledge about the aquifer, and so comprises a tool to design sustainable adaptation management strategies taking into account the uncertainty in future GC conditions and their impacts. The results show that GC scenarios produce significant increases in the variability of flow budget components and in the salinity.This research work has been partially supported by the GESINHIMPADAPT project (CGL2013-48424-C2-2-R) with Spanish MINECO funds, the PMAFI/06/14 project with UCAM funds and the Plan de Garantia Juvenil from MINECO, co-financing by BEI and FSE. We would like to thank the Spain02 (AEMET and UC) and CORDEX projects and the Jucar Water Agency (CHJ) for the data provided for this study. We appreciate the valuable comments and suggestions provided by the editor and two anonymous referees.Pulido Velázquez, D.; Renau-Pruñonosa, A.; Llopis Albert, C.; Morell, I.; Collados-Lara, A.; Senent-Aparicio, J.; Leticia Baena-Ruiz (2018). Integrated assessment of future potential global change scenarios and their hydrological impacts in coastal aquifers - a new tool to analyse management alternatives in the Plana Oropesa-Torreblanca aquifer. HYDROLOGY AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES. 22(5):3053-3074. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3053-2018S30533074225Alcalá, F. J. and Custodio, E.: Spatial average aquifer recharge through atmospheric ride mass balance and its uncertainty in continental Spain, Hydrol. Process, 28, 218–236, 2014.Allen, R. G., Pereira, L. 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Antioksidativni učinci N-acetilcisteina, lipoične kiseline, taurina i kurkumina u mišićnom tkivu šarana (Cyprinus carpio L.) tretiranih kadmijem

We investigated the muscle tissue of a teleost Cyprinus carpio L. to find out whether N-acetylcysteine (NAC), alpha-lipoic acid (LA), taurine (TAU), and curcumin (CUR) were able to counteract oxidative stress induced by acute exposure to cadmium (Cd). The muscle tissue was dissected 96 h after a single intraperitoneal injection of Cd (5 mg kg-1) and of antioxidant substances (50 mg kg-1). Using spectrophotometry, we determined the glutathione redox status, lipid peroxidation levels and the activities of superoxide dismutase (SOD), catalase (CAT), glutathione peroxidase (GPx), and glutathione disulphide reductase (GR). Accumulation of Cd in the muscle was analysed using inductively coupled plasma - optical emission spectrometry (ICP-OES). All substances lowered Cd levels in the following order of effi ciency; LA=NAC>TAU=CUR. Cadmium increased SOD activity, but CAT activity declined, regardless of antioxidant treatment. Treatment with CUR induced GPx activity. Treatment with TAU lowered Cd due to higher total glutathione (tGSH). The most effective substances on lipid peroxidation were LA and NAC due to a greater Cd-lowering potential. It seems that the protective role of TAU, LA, and NAC is not necessarily associated with antioxidant enzymes, but rather with their own activity.Cilj istraživanja bio je utvrditi mogu li N-acetilcistein (NAC), α-lipoična kiselina (LA), taurin (TAU) i kurkumin (CUR) svojim antioksidativnim djelovanjem smanjiti razinu oksidativnog stresa u mišićnom tkivu šarana (Cyprinus carpio L.) akutno otrovanih kadmijem. Uzorci mišićnog tkiva skupljeni su 96 h nakon što su ribama intraperitonealno injicirani kadmij (5 mg kg-1) i ispitivani antioksidansi (50 mg kg-1). Primjenom spektrofotometrijskih metoda izmjereni su redoks status glutationa, razine lipidne peroksidacije te aktivnosti enzima superoksid dismutaze (SOD), katalaze (CAT), glutation peroksidaze (GPx) i glutation disulfi d reduktaze (GR). Maseni udio kadmija u mišićnom tkivu izmjeren je s pomoću metode induktivno spregnute plazme – optičke emisijske spektrometrije (ICP-OES). Ispitivani spojevi smanjili su nakupljanje kadmija u tkivu šarana sljedećim redoslijedom: LA=NAC>TAU=CUR. Tretman šarana kadmijem izazvao je porast aktivnosti SOD, ali se aktivnost CAT smanjila bez obzira na primjenu antioksidativnih spojeva. Dodatak CUR pojačao je aktivnost GPx. Dodatak TAU povećao je razinu ukupnoga glutationa te smanjio nakupljanje kadmija. Svi spojevi osim CUR smanjili su razinu lipidne peroksidacije te pretpostavljamo da su LA i NAC pridonijeli detoksifi kaciji kadmija. Rezultati istraživanja upućuju na to da testirani spojevi, osim CUR, imaju antioksidativni učina

A coupled stochastic inverse/sharp interface seawater intrusion approach for coastal aquifers under groundwater parameter uncertainty

© 2016 Elsevier B.V. This paper presents an alternative approach to deal with seawater intrusion problems, that overcomes some of the limitations of previous works, by coupling the well-known SWI2 package for MODFLOW with a stochastic inverse model named GC method. On the one hand, the SWI2 allows a vertically integrated variable-density groundwater flow and seawater intrusion in coastal multi-aquifer systems, and a reduction in number of required model cells and the elimination of the need to solve the advective-dispersive transport equation, which leads to substantial model run-time savings. On the other hand, the GC method allows dealing with groundwater parameter uncertainty by constraining stochastic simulations to flow and mass transport data (i.e., hydraulic conductivity, freshwater heads, saltwater concentrations and travel times) and also to secondary information obtained from expert judgment or geophysical surveys, thus reducing uncertainty and increasing reliability in meeting the environmental standards. The methodology has been successfully applied to a transient movement of the freshwater-seawater interface in response to changing freshwater inflow in a two-aquifer coastal aquifer system, where an uncertainty assessment has been carried out by means of Monte Carlo simulation techniques. The approach also allows partially overcoming the neglected diffusion and dispersion processes after the conditioning process since the uncertainty is reduced and results are closer to available data

Effect of scCO2-brine mixture on injectivity and storage capacity in rock samples of naturally fractured carbonate formations

[EN] The presence of natural fractures in the formation and its degree of heterogeneity condition the injection of CO2 into the aquifer as they affect the migration processes and its storage capacity. In ATAP experimental facility the petrophysical behavior of two carbonate formations was studied, with different proportions of limestone, dolomite, quartz and anhydrite and fissures sealed mainly by potassium aluminosilicates and iron sulphides. Actual storage conditions (135/141 bar and 44/46 degrees C) corresponding to a depth of around 1500 m and continuous injection at a constant flow rate of 1 cc/min of 10% and 15% of HCl, HCl/Acetic (CH3COOH) 10%/10% and scCO2 (supercritical CO2)/brine 50%/50%, was applied to the brine saturated rock samples (core-flooding). Considering laminar flow through the fractures, the flow injected is proportional to the pressure drop according to the "cubic law" that takes into account the width and length of the fractures. This is used to evaluate the injectivity of the storage. The variations in the pressure drop are due to the dragging of detached fines in the dissolution of the carbonates of the filled fissures that can cause their opening or blocking. The efficacy of pure scCO2 enriched brine injection was determined to dissolve the carbonates of the store formation compared to other methods such as the injection of acids used in the oil industry for the stimulation of producing wells. Scanning Electron Microscope (SEM) studies of the injection surfaces and Computerized Tomography (CT) analysis of the samples before and after injection of the acid mixtures have been performed. The dissolution facilitates the injectivity and increases the capacity favoring the tightness of the storage by the phenomenon of controlled dissolution-precipitation of the carbonates.Valle, LM.; Grima, C.; Rodríguez, R.; Llopis-Albert, C. (2020). 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