School's Out: Seasonal Variation in the Movement Patterns of School Children.

School children are core groups in the transmission of many common infectious diseases, and are likely to play a key role in the spatial dispersal of disease across multiple scales. However, there is currently little detailed information about the spatial movements of this epidemiologically important age group. To address this knowledge gap, we collaborated with eight secondary schools to conduct a survey of movement patterns of school pupils in primary and secondary schools in the United Kingdom. We found evidence of a significant change in behaviour between term time and holidays, with term time weekdays characterised by predominately local movements, and holidays seeing much broader variation in travel patterns. Studies that use mathematical models to examine epidemic transmission and control often use adult commuting data as a proxy for population movements. We show that while these data share some features with the movement patterns reported by school children, there are some crucial differences between the movements of children and adult commuters during both term-time and holidays.AJK was supported by the Medical Research Council (fellowship MR/K021524/1, http://www.mrc.ac.uk/) and the RAPIDD program of the Science & Technology Directorate, Department of Homeland Security, and the Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health (http://www.fic.nih.gov/about/staff/pages​/epidemiology-population.aspx#rapidd). AJKC was supported by the Alborada Trust (http://www.alboradatrust.com/). KTDE was supported by the NIHR (CDF-2011-04- 019, http://www.nihr.ac.uk/). The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.This is the final version. It was first published by PLOS at http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0128070#

Towards computerizing intensive care sedation guidelines: design of a rule-based architecture for automated execution of clinical guidelines

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Computerized ICUs rely on software services to convey the medical condition of their patients as well as assisting the staff in taking treatment decisions. Such services are useful for following clinical guidelines quickly and accurately. However, the development of services is often time-consuming and error-prone. Consequently, many care-related activities are still conducted based on manually constructed guidelines. These are often ambiguous, which leads to unnecessary variations in treatments and costs.</p> <p>The goal of this paper is to present a semi-automatic verification and translation framework capable of turning manually constructed diagrams into ready-to-use programs. This framework combines the strengths of the manual and service-oriented approaches while decreasing their disadvantages. The aim is to close the gap in communication between the IT and the medical domain. This leads to a less time-consuming and error-prone development phase and a shorter clinical evaluation phase.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A framework is proposed that semi-automatically translates a clinical guideline, expressed as an XML-based flow chart, into a Drools Rule Flow by employing semantic technologies such as ontologies and SWRL. An overview of the architecture is given and all the technology choices are thoroughly motivated. Finally, it is shown how this framework can be integrated into a service-oriented architecture (SOA).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The applicability of the Drools Rule language to express clinical guidelines is evaluated by translating an example guideline, namely the sedation protocol used for the anaesthetization of patients, to a Drools Rule Flow and executing and deploying this Rule-based application as a part of a SOA. The results show that the performance of Drools is comparable to other technologies such as Web Services and increases with the number of decision nodes present in the Rule Flow. Most delays are introduced by loading the Rule Flows.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The framework is an effective solution for computerizing clinical guidelines as it allows for quick development, evaluation and human-readable visualization of the Rules and has a good performance. By monitoring the parameters of the patient to automatically detect exceptional situations and problems and by notifying the medical staff of tasks that need to be performed, the computerized sedation guideline improves the execution of the guideline.</p

Cross-validated stepwise regression for identification of novel non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor resistance associated mutations

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Linear regression models are used to quantitatively predict drug resistance, the phenotype, from the HIV-1 viral genotype. As new antiretroviral drugs become available, new resistance pathways emerge and the number of resistance associated mutations continues to increase. To accurately identify which drug options are left, the main goal of the modeling has been to maximize predictivity and not interpretability. However, we originally selected linear regression as the preferred method for its transparency as opposed to other techniques such as neural networks. Here, we apply a method to lower the complexity of these phenotype prediction models using a 3-fold cross-validated selection of mutations.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Compared to standard stepwise regression we were able to reduce the number of mutations in the reverse transcriptase (RT) inhibitor models as well as the number of interaction terms accounting for synergistic and antagonistic effects. This reduction in complexity was most significant for the non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI) models, while maintaining prediction accuracy and retaining virtually all known resistance associated mutations as first order terms in the models. Furthermore, for etravirine (ETR) a better performance was seen on two years of unseen data. By analyzing the phenotype prediction models we identified a list of forty novel NNRTI mutations, putatively associated with resistance. The resistance association of novel variants at known NNRTI resistance positions: 100, 101, 181, 190, 221 and of mutations at positions not previously linked with NNRTI resistance: 102, 139, 219, 241, 376 and 382 was confirmed by phenotyping site-directed mutants.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>We successfully identified and validated novel NNRTI resistance associated mutations by developing parsimonious resistance prediction models in which repeated cross-validation within the stepwise regression was applied. Our model selection technique is computationally feasible for large data sets and provides an approach to the continued identification of resistance-causing mutations.</p

Weaning practices in phenylketonuria vary between health professionals in Europe

Background: In phenylketonuria (PKU), weaning is considered more challenging when compared to feeding healthy infants. The primary aim of weaning is to gradually replace natural protein from breast milk or standard infant formula with solids containing equivalent phenylalanine (Phe). In addition, a Phe-free second stage L-amino acid supplement is usually recommended from around 6 months to replace Phe-free infant formula. Our aim was to assess different weaning approaches used by health professionals across Europe. Methods: A cross sectional questionnaire (survey monkey (R)) composed of 31 multiple and single choice questions was sent to European colleagues caring for inherited metabolic disorders (IMD). Centres were grouped into geographical regions for analysis. Results: Weaning started at 17-26 weeks in 85% (n=81/95) of centres, > 26 weeks in 12% (n=11/95) and 26 weeks. First solids were mainly low Phe vegetables (59%, n=56/95) and fruit (34%, n=32/95). A Phe exchange system to allocate dietary Phe was used by 52% (n=49/95) of centres predominantly from Northern and Southern Europe and 48% (n=46/95) calculated most Phe containing food sources (all centres in Eastern Europe and the majority from Germany and Austria). Some centres used a combination of both methods. A second stage Phe-free L-amino acid supplement containing a higher protein equivalent was introduced by 41% (n=39/95) of centres at infant age 26-36 weeks (mainly from Germany, Austria, Northern and Eastern Europe) and 37% (n=35/95) at infant age > 1y mainly from Southern Europe. 53% (n=50/95) of centres recommended a second stage Phe-free L-amino acid supplement in a spoonable or semi-solid form. Conclusions: Weaning strategies vary throughout European PKU centres. There is evidence to suggest that different infant weaning strategies may influence longer term adherence to the PKU diet or acceptance of Phe-free L-amino acid supplements; rendering prospective long-term studies important. It is essential to identify an effective weaning strategy that reduces caregiver burden but is associated with acceptable dietary adherence and optimal infant feeding development.Peer reviewe

Evaluation of Convalescent Plasma for Ebola Virus Disease in Guinea

: In the wake of the recent outbreak of Ebola virus disease (EVD) in several African countries, the World Health Organization prioritized the evaluation of treatment with convalescent plasma derived from patients who have recovered from the disease. We evaluated the safety and efficacy of convalescent plasma for the treatment of EVD in Guinea. : In this nonrandomized, comparative study, 99 patients of various ages (including pregnant women) with confirmed EVD received two consecutive transfusions of 200 to 250 ml of ABO-compatible convalescent plasma, with each unit of plasma obtained from a separate convalescent donor. The transfusions were initiated on the day of diagnosis or up to 2 days later. The level of neutralizing antibodies against Ebola virus in the plasma was unknown at the time of administration. The control group was 418 patients who had been treated at the same center during the previous 5 months. The primary outcome was the risk of death during the period from 3 to 16 days after diagnosis with adjustments for age and the baseline cycle-threshold value on polymerase-chain-reaction assay; patients who had died before day 3 were excluded. The clinically important difference was defined as an absolute reduction in mortality of 20 percentage points in the convalescent-plasma group as compared with the control group. : A total of 84 patients who were treated with plasma were included in the primary analysis. At baseline, the convalescent-plasma group had slightly higher cycle-threshold values and a shorter duration of symptoms than did the control group, along with a higher frequency of eye redness and difficulty in swallowing. From day 3 to day 16 after diagnosis, the risk of death was 31% in the convalescent-plasma group and 38% in the control group (risk difference, -7 percentage points; 95% confidence interval [CI], -18 to 4). The difference was reduced after adjustment for age and cycle-threshold value (adjusted risk difference, -3 percentage points; 95% CI, -13 to 8). No serious adverse reactions associated with the use of convalescent plasma were observed. : The transfusion of up to 500 ml of convalescent plasma with unknown levels of neutralizing antibodies in 84 patients with confirmed EVD was not associated with a significant improvement in survival. (Funded by the European Union's Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Program and others; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT02342171.).<br/

Early feeding practices in infants with phenylketonuria across Europe

Background: In infants with phenylketonuria (PKU), dietary management is based on lowering and titrating phenylalanine (Phe) intake from breast milk or standard infant formula in combination with a Phe-free infant formula in order to maintain blood Phe levels within target range. Professionals use different methods to feed infants with PKU and our survey aimed to document practices across Europe. Methods: We sent a cross sectional, survey monkey (R) questionnaire to European health professionals working in IMD. It contained 31 open and multiple-choice questions. The results were analysed according to different geographical regions. Results: Ninety-five centres from 21 countries responded. Over 60% of centres commenced diet in infants by age 10 days, with 58% of centres implementing newborn screening by day 3 post birth. At diagnosis, infant hospital admission occurred in 61% of metabolic centres, mainly in Eastern, Western and Southern Europe. Breastfeeding fell sharply following diagnosis with only 30% of women still breast feeding at 6 months. 53% of centres gave pre-measured Phe-free infant formula before each breast feed and 23% alternated breast feeds with Phe-free infant formula. With standard infant formula feeds, measured amounts were followed by Phe-free infant formula to satiety in 37% of centres (n = 35/95), whereas 44% (n = 42/95) advised mixing both formulas together. Weaning commenced between 17 and 26 weeks in 85% centres, >= 26 weeks in 12% and <17 weeks in 3%. Discussion: This is the largest European survey completed on PKU infant feeding practices. It is evident that practices varied widely across Europe, and the practicalities of infant feeding in PKU received little focus in the PKU European Guidelines (2017). There are few reports comparing different feeding techniques with blood Phe control, Phe fluctuations and growth. Controlled prospective studies are necessary to assess how different infant feeding practices may influence longer term feeding development.Peer reviewe