On insurance and health risks

Health risk can be defined as the likelihood of a negative health consequence occurring due to a specific event, disease or condition. Its consequences can be strongly detrimental to individuals and society and managing health risks is a central concern for individuals and governments

The effect of long-term care public benefits and insurance on informal care from outside the household: Empirical evidence from Italy and Spain

This article uses cross-sectional data from the Survey of Health, Ageing, and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) database to test the effect of both long-term care (LTC) public benefits and insurance on the receipt of informal care provided by family members living outside the household in Italy and Spain. The choice of Italy and Spain comes from the fact that informal care is rather similar in these two countries while their respective public LTC financing systems are different. Our results support the hypothesis of LTC public support decreasing the receipt of informal care for Spain while reject it for Italy. They tend to confirm that the effect of public benefits on informal care depends on the typology of public coverage for LTC whereby access to proportional benefits negatively influences informal care receipt while access to cash benefits exerts a positive effect. Our results also suggest that private LTC insurance complements the public LTC financing system in place

Multidimensional Gaussian sums arising from distribution of Birkhoff sums in zero entropy dynamical systems

A duality formula, of the Hardy and Littlewood type for multidimensional Gaussian sums, is proved in order to estimate the asymptotic long time behavior of distribution of Birkhoff sums $S_n$ of a sequence generated by a skew product dynamical system on the $\mathbb{T}^2$ torus, with zero Lyapounov exponents. The sequence, taking the values $\pm 1$, is pairwise independent (but not independent) ergodic sequence with infinite range dependence. The model corresponds to the motion of a particle on an infinite cylinder, hopping backward and forward along its axis, with a transversal acceleration parameter $\alpha$. We show that when the parameter $\alpha /\pi$ is rational then all the moments of the normalized sums $E((S_n/\sqrt{n})^k)$, but the second, are unbounded with respect to n, while for irrational $\alpha /\pi$, with bounded continuous fraction representation, all these moments are finite and bounded with respect to n.Comment: To be published in J. Phys.

Fractalization of Torus Revisited as a Strange Nonchaotic Attractor

Fractalization of torus and its transition to chaos in a quasi-periodically forced logistic map is re-investigated in relation with a strange nonchaotic attractor, with the aid of functional equation for the invariant curve. Existence of fractal torus in an interval in parameter space is confirmed by the length and the number of extrema of the torus attractor, as well as the Fourier mode analysis. Mechanisms of the onset of fractal torus and the transition to chaos are studied in connection with the intermittency.Comment: Latex file ( figures will be sent electronically upon request):submitted to Phys.Rev. E (1996

Towards generalized measures grasping CA dynamics

In this paper we conceive Lyapunov exponents, measuring the rate of separation between two initially close configurations, and Jacobians, expressing the sensitivity of a CA's transition function to its inputs, for cellular automata (CA) based upon irregular tessellations of the n-dimensional Euclidean space. Further, we establish a relationship between both that enables us to derive a mean-field approximation of the upper bound of an irregular CA's maximum Lyapunov exponent. The soundness and usability of these measures is illustrated for a family of 2-state irregular totalistic CA

Chaotic oscillations in a map-based model of neural activity

We propose a discrete time dynamical system (a map) as phenomenological model of excitable and spiking-bursting neurons. The model is a discontinuous two-dimensional map. We find condition under which this map has an invariant region on the phase plane, containing chaotic attractor. This attractor creates chaotic spiking-bursting oscillations of the model. We also show various regimes of other neural activities (subthreshold oscillations, phasic spiking etc.) derived from the proposed model

Demographic change and conflict in Northern Ireland: reconciling qualitative and quantitative evidence

Recent large-N quantitative studies have failed to uncover a link between demographic change and conflict. This seems to refute quite powerful qualitative evidence from small-scale case studies that such a relationship exists. This article attempts to reconcile the conflicting evidence by revealing how population change—in this case a major decline in the size of the Protestant majority—matters for violent conflict, but not in a direct way. In addition, relationships differ by level of geography. In the case of Northern Ireland, no significant quantitative association exists between ethnic change and violence. This holds across both geographic units and years. However, there is a significant association between ethnic demography and Protestant mobilization into the Orange Order across counties. This in turn is related to Protestant resistance to reforms aimed at extending civil rights to the Catholic population during the Stormont period. This stance was a major factor in generating Catholic support for IRA violence. Moreover, in specific locations, a direct link between Protestant population decline relative to Catholics and loyalist violence against Catholics is evident. Hence demography matters, but in conjunction with other factors, and several steps upstream from the outbreak of violence

The epidemiological transition in Antananarivo, Madagascar: an assessment based on death registers (1900–2012)

Background: Madagascar today has one of the highest life expectancies in sub-Saharan Africa, despite being among the poorest countries in the continent. There are relatively few detailed accounts of the epidemiological transition in this country due to the lack of a comprehensive death registration system at the national level. However, in Madagascar's capital city, death registration was established around the start of the 20th century and is now considered virtually complete. Objective: We provide an overview of trends in all-cause and cause-specific mortality in Antananarivo to document the timing and pace of the mortality decline and the changes in the cause-of-death structure. Design: Death registers covering the period 1976–2012 were digitized and the population at risk of dying was estimated from available censuses and surveys. Trends for the period 1900–1976 were partly reconstructed from published sources. Results: The crude death rate stagnated around 30‰ until the 1940s in Antananarivo. Mortality declined rapidly after the World War II and then resurged again in the 1980s as a result of the re-emergence of malaria and the collapse of Madagascar's economy. Over the past 30 years, impressive gains in life expectancy have been registered thanks to the unabated decline in child mortality, despite political instability, a lasting economic crisis and the persistence of high rates of chronic malnutrition. Progress in adult survival has been more modest because reductions in infectious diseases and diseases of the respiratory system have been partly offset by increases in cardiovascular diseases, neoplasms, and other diseases, particularly at age 50 years and over. Conclusions: The transition in Antananarivo has been protracted and largely dependent on anti-microbial and anti-parasitic medicine. The capital city now faces a double burden of communicable and non-communicable diseases. The ongoing registration of deaths in the capital generates a unique database to evaluate the performance of the health system and measure intervention impacts