On the mixing properties of piecewise expanding maps under composition with permutations

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from American Institute of Mathematical Sciences via the DOI in this record.We consider the effect on the mixing properties of a piecewise smooth interval map f when its domain is divided into N equal subintervals and f is composed with a permutation of these. The case of the stretch-and-fold map f(x)=mxmod1 for integers m≥2 is examined in detail. We give a combinatorial description of those permutations σ for which σ∘f is still (topologically) mixing, and show that the proportion of such permutations tends to 1 as N→∞. We then investigate the mixing rate of σ∘f (as measured by the modulus of the second largest eigenvalue of the transfer operator). In contrast to the situation for continuous time diffusive systems, we show that composition with a permutation cannot improve the mixing rate of f, but typically makes it worse. Under some mild assumptions on m and N, we obtain a precise value for the worst mixing rate as σ ranges through all permutations; this can be made arbitrarily close to 1 as N→∞ (with m fixed). We illustrate the geometric distribution of the second largest eigenvalues in the complex plane for small m and N, and propose a conjecture concerning their location in general. Finally, we give examples of other interval maps f for which composition with permutations produces different behaviour than that obtained from the stretch-and-fold map

C4 photosynthesis boosts growth by altering physiology, allocation and size.

C4 photosynthesis is a complex set of leaf anatomical and biochemical adaptations that have evolved more than 60 times to boost carbon uptake compared with the ancestral C3 photosynthetic type(1-3). Although C4 photosynthesis has the potential to drive faster growth rates(4,5), experiments directly comparing C3 and C4 plants have not shown consistent effects(1,6,7). This is problematic because differential growth is a crucial element of ecological theory(8,9) explaining C4 savannah responses to global change(10,11), and research to increase C3 crop productivity by introducing C4 photosynthesis(12). Here, we resolve this long-standing issue by comparing growth across 382 grass species, accounting for ecological diversity and evolutionary history. C4 photosynthesis causes a 19-88% daily growth enhancement. Unexpectedly, during the critical seedling establishment stage, this enhancement is driven largely by a high ratio of leaf area to mass, rather than fast growth per unit leaf area. C4 leaves have less dense tissues, allowing more leaves to be produced for the same carbon cost. Consequently, C4 plants invest more in roots than C3 species. Our data demonstrate a general suite of functional trait divergences between C3 and C4 species, which simultaneously drive faster growth and greater investment in water and nutrient acquisition, with important ecological and agronomic implications

Biological sex is associated with heterogeneous responses to IL-6 receptor inhibitor treatment in COVID-19—A retrospective cohort study

COVID-19 is associated with higher inflammatory markers, illness severity and mortality in males compared to females. Differences in immune responses to COVID-19 may underpin sex- specific outcome differences. We hypothesised that anti-IL-6 receptor monoclonal antibodies are associated with heterogenous treatment effects between male and female patients. We conducted a retrospective cohort study assessing the interaction between biological sex and anti-IL-6 receptor antibody treatment with respect to hospital mortality or progression of respiratory failure. We used a Cox proportional hazards regression model to adjust for age, ethnicity, steroid use, baseline C-reactive protein, and COVID-19 variant. We included 1274 patients, of which 58% were male and 15% received anti-IL-6 receptor antibodies. There was a significant interaction between sex and anti-IL-6 receptor antibody use on progression to respiratory failure or death (p = 0.05). For patients who did not receive anti-IL-6 receptor antibodies, the risk of death was slightly higher in males (HR = 1.13 (0.72–1.79)), whereas in patients who did receive anti-IL-6 receptor antibodies, the risk was lower in males (HR = 0.65 (0.32–1.33)). There was a heterogenous treatment effect with anti-IL-6 receptor antibodies between males and females; with anti-IL-6 receptor antibody use having a greater benefit in preventing progression to respiratory failure or death in males (p = 0.05)

Genomic characteristics and clinical effect of the emergent SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 lineage in London, UK: a whole-genome sequencing and hospital-based cohort study

BACKGROUND: Emergence of variants with specific mutations in key epitopes in the spike protein of SARS-CoV-2 raises concerns pertinent to mass vaccination campaigns and use of monoclonal antibodies. We aimed to describe the emergence of the B.1.1.7 variant of concern (VOC), including virological characteristics and clinical severity in contemporaneous patients with and without the variant. METHODS: In this cohort study, samples positive for SARS-CoV-2 on PCR that were collected from Nov 9, 2020, for patients acutely admitted to one of two hospitals on or before Dec 20, 2020, in London, UK, were sequenced and analysed for the presence of VOC-defining mutations. We fitted Poisson regression models to investigate the association between B.1.1.7 infection and severe disease (defined as point 6 or higher on the WHO ordinal scale within 14 days of symptoms or positive test) and death within 28 days of a positive test and did supplementary genomic analyses in a cohort of chronically shedding patients and in a cohort of remdesivir-treated patients. Viral load was compared by proxy, using PCR cycle threshold values and sequencing read depths. FINDINGS: Of 496 patients with samples positive for SARS-CoV-2 on PCR and who met inclusion criteria, 341 had samples that could be sequenced. 198 (58%) of 341 had B.1.1.7 infection and 143 (42%) had non-B.1.1.7 infection. We found no evidence of an association between severe disease and death and lineage (B.1.1.7 vs non-B.1.1.7) in unadjusted analyses (prevalence ratio [PR] 0·97 [95% CI 0·72-1·31]), or in analyses adjusted for hospital, sex, age, comorbidities, and ethnicity (adjusted PR 1·02 [0·76-1·38]). We detected no B.1.1.7 VOC-defining mutations in 123 chronically shedding immunocompromised patients or in 32 remdesivir-treated patients. Viral load by proxy was higher in B.1.1.7 samples than in non-B.1.1.7 samples, as measured by cycle threshold value (mean 28·8 [SD 4·7] vs 32·0 [4·8]; p=0·0085) and genomic read depth (1280 [1004] vs 831 [682]; p=0·0011). INTERPRETATION: Emerging evidence exists of increased transmissibility of B.1.1.7, and we found increased virus load by proxy for B.1.1.7 in our data. We did not identify an association of the variant with severe disease in this hospitalised cohort. FUNDING: University College London Hospitals NHS Trust, University College London/University College London Hospitals NIHR Biomedical Research Centre, Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council

Reduced antibody cross-reactivity following infection with B.1.1.7 than with parental SARS-CoV-2 strains

Background: The degree of heterotypic immunity induced by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) strains is a major determinant of the spread of emerging variants and the success of vaccination campaigns, but remains incompletely understood. Methods: We examined the immunogenicity of SARS-CoV-2 variant B.1.1.7 (Alpha) that arose in the United Kingdom and spread globally. We determined titres of spike glycoprotein-binding antibodies and authentic virus neutralising antibodies induced by B.1.1.7 infection to infer homotypic and heterotypic immunity. Results: Antibodies elicited by B.1.1.7 infection exhibited significantly reduced recognition and neutralisation of parental strains or of the South Africa variant B.1.351 (Beta) than of the infecting variant. The drop in cross-reactivity was significantly more pronounced following B.1.1.7 than parental strain infection. Conclusions: The results indicate that heterotypic immunity induced by SARS-CoV-2 variants is asymmetric

Detection of SARS-CoV-2 infection by saliva and nasopharyngeal sampling in frontline healthcare workers: An observational cohort study

Background The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has caused an unprecedented strain on healthcare systems worldwide, including the United Kingdom National Health Service (NHS). We conducted an observational cohort study of SARS-CoV-2 infection in frontline healthcare workers (HCW) working in an acute NHS Trust during the first wave of the pandemic, to answer emerging questions surrounding SARS-CoV-2 infection, diagnosis, transmission and control. Methods Using self-collected weekly saliva and twice weekly combined oropharyngeal/nasopharyngeal (OP/NP) samples, in addition to self-assessed symptom profiles and isolation behaviours, we retrospectively compared SARS-CoV-2 detection by RT-qPCR of saliva and OP/NP samples. We report the association with contemporaneous symptoms and isolation behaviour. Results Over a 12-week period from 30th March 2020, 40∙0% (n = 34/85, 95% confidence interval 31∙3-51∙8%) HCW had evidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection by surveillance OP/NP swab and/or saliva sample. Symptoms were reported by 47∙1% (n = 40) and self-isolation by 25∙9% (n = 22) participants. Only 44.1% (n = 15/34) participants with SARS-CoV-2 infection reported any symptoms within 14 days of a positive result and only 29∙4% (n = 10/34) reported self-isolation periods. Overall agreement between paired saliva and OP/NP swabs was 93∙4% (n = 211/226 pairs) but rates of positive concordance were low. In paired samples with at least one positive result, 35∙0% (n = 7/20) were positive exclusively by OP/NP swab, 40∙0% (n = 8/20) exclusively by saliva and in only 25∙0% (n = 5/20) were the OP/NP and saliva result both positive. Conclusions HCW are a potential source of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in hospitals and symptom screening will identify the minority of infections. Without routine asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 screening, it is likely that HCW with SARS-CoV-2 infection would continue to attend work. Saliva, in addition to OP/NP swab testing, facilitated ascertainment of symptomatic and asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections. Combined saliva and OP/NP swab sampling would improve detection of SARS-CoV-2 for surveillance and is recommended for a high sensitivity strategy

Tracking SARS-CoV-2 mutations and variants through the COG-UK-Mutation Explorer

COG-UK Mutation Explorer (COG-UK-ME, http://sars2.cvr.gla.ac.uk/cog-uk/-last accessed date 16 March 2022) is a web resource that displays knowledge and analyses on SARS-CoV-2 virus genome mutations and variants circulating in the UK, with a focus on the observed amino acid replacements that have an antigenic role in the context of the human humoral and cellular immune response. This analysis is based on more than 2 million genome sequences (as of March 2022) for UK SARS-CoV-2 data held in the CLIMB-COVID centralised data environment. COG-UK-ME curates these data and displays analyses that are cross-referenced to experimental data collated from the primary literature. The aim is to track mutations of immunological importance that are accumulating in current variants of concern and variants of interest that could alter the neutralising activity of monoclonal antibodies (mAbs), convalescent sera, and vaccines. Changes in epitopes recognised by T cells, including those where reduced T cell binding has been demonstrated, are reported. Mutations that have been shown to confer SARS-CoV-2 resistance to antiviral drugs are also included. Using visualisation tools, COG-UK-ME also allows users to identify the emergence of variants carrying mutations that could decrease the neutralising activity of both mAbs present in therapeutic cocktails, e.g. Ronapreve. COG-UK-ME tracks changes in the frequency of combinations of mutations and brings together the curated literature on the impact of those mutations on various functional aspects of the virus and therapeutics. Given the unpredictable nature of SARS-CoV-2 as exemplified by yet another variant of concern, Omicron, continued surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 remains imperative to monitor virus evolution linked to the efficacy of therapeutics

Recurrent SARS-CoV-2 mutations in immunodeficient patients

Long-term severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections in immunodeficient patients are an important source of variation for the virus but are understudied. Many case studies have been published which describe one or a small number of long-term infected individuals but no study has combined these sequences into a cohesive dataset. This work aims to rectify this and study the genomics of this patient group through a combination of literature searches as well as identifying new case series directly from the COVID-19 Genomics UK (COG-UK) dataset. The spike gene receptor-binding domain and N-terminal domain (NTD) were identified as mutation hotspots. Numerous mutations associated with variants of concern were observed to emerge recurrently. Additionally a mutation in the envelope gene, T30I was determined to be the second most frequent recurrently occurring mutation arising in persistent infections. A high proportion of recurrent mutations in immunodeficient individuals are associated with ACE2 affinity, immune escape, or viral packaging optimisation.There is an apparent selective pressure for mutations that aid cell–cell transmission within the host or persistence which are often different from mutations that aid inter-host transmission, although the fact that multiple recurrent de novo mutations are considered defining for variants of concern strongly indicates that this potential source of novel variants should not be discounted

Spatial growth rate of emerging SARS-CoV-2 lineages in England, September 2020-December 2021

This paper uses a robust method of spatial epidemiological analysis to assess the spatial growth rate of multiple lineages of SARS-CoV-2 in the local authority areas of England, September 2020-December 2021. Using the genomic surveillance records of the COVID-19 Genomics UK (COG-UK) Consortium, the analysis identifies a substantial (7.6-fold) difference in the average rate of spatial growth of 37 sample lineages, from the slowest (Delta AY.4.3) to the fastest (Omicron BA.1). Spatial growth of the Omicron (B.1.1.529 and BA) variant was found to be 2.81× faster than the Delta (B.1.617.2 and AY) variant and 3.76× faster than the Alpha (B.1.1.7 and Q) variant. In addition to AY.4.2 (a designated variant under investigation, VUI-21OCT-01), three Delta sublineages (AY.43, AY.98 and AY.120) were found to display a statistically faster rate of spatial growth than the parent lineage and would seem to merit further investigation. We suggest that the monitoring of spatial growth rates is a potentially valuable adjunct to outbreak response procedures for emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants in a defined population