A New Proof and Extension of the Odds-Theorem

There are $n$ independent Bernoulli random variables $I_{k}$ with parameters $p_{k}$ that are observed sequentially. We consider a generalization of the Last-Success-Problem considering $w_{k}$ positive payments if the player successfully predicts that the last "1" occurs in the variable $I_{k}$. We establish the optimal strategy and the expected profit in similar terms to the Odds-Theorem. The proof provided here is an alternative proof to the one Bruss provides in his Odds-Theorem (case $w_{i}=1$) that is even simpler and more elementary than his proof.Comment:

Cash or Food? Which Works Better to Improve Nutrition Status and Treatment Adherence for HIV Patients Starting Antiretroviral Therapy

The overall objective of this DFID-funded study was to understand whether cash or food transfers were more effective for HIV-positive individuals starting antiretroviral therapy (ART) in improving nutrition, health status and adherence to ART. HIV-positive individuals initiating ART at the St Francis Mission Hospital in Katete District, Eastern Province, were randomly allocated to two treatment groups (cash and food), and given a food basket or its cash equivalent monthly, for eight months. Both treatment groups saw significant increases (p-value <0.001) in Body Mass Index (BMI), Household Dietary Diversity Score, good adherence to ART, and in mean CD4 count, but there were no significant differences between the two treatment groups in these measures. The study concluded that the provision of cash or food for eight months when clients start ART confers similar and significantly positive effects in improving clients’ nutrition and health. Providing cash is likely to be more cost-effective

Value and limitations of broad brush surveys used in community-randomized trials in Southern Africa

We describe and reflect on a rapid qualitative survey approach called “Broad Brush Survey” (BBS) used in six community-randomized trials (CRTs)/studies in Zambia and South Africa (2004–2018) to document, compare, classify, and communicate community features systematically for public health and multidisciplinary research ends. BBS is based on a set sequence of participatory qualitative methods and fieldwork carried out prior to a CRT intervention and/or research by social scientists to generate rapid community profiles using four key indicators: physical features, social organization, networks, and community narratives. Profiling makes apparent similarities and differences, enabling comparison across communities and can be facilitated by an ideal model of open-closed systems. Findings have provided practical outputs (e.g., community profiles) and academic opportunities (e.g., community typologies). The BBS approach enables complex social landscapes to be incorporated in CRTs. This method has proven to be useful, adaptable and to have multidisciplinary appeal

Female Genital Schistosomiasis and HIV-1 Incidence in Zambian Women: A Retrospective Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Female genital schistosomiasis (FGS) has been associated with prevalent HIV-1. We estimated the incidence of HIV-1 infection in Zambian women with and without FGS. METHODS: Women (aged 18-31, nonpregnant, sexually active) were invited to participate in this study in January-August 2018 at the final follow-up of the HPTN 071 (PopART) Population Cohort. HIV-1-negative participants at enrollment (n = 492) were included in this analysis, with testing to confirm incident HIV-1 performed in HPTN 071 (PopART). The association of incident HIV-1 infection with FGS (Schistosoma DNA detected by polymerase chain reaction [PCR] in any genital specimen) was assessed with exact Poisson regression. RESULTS: Incident HIV-1 infections were observed in 4.1% (20/492) of participants. Women with FGS were twice as likely to seroconvert as women without FGS but with no statistical evidence for a difference (adjusted rate ratio, 2.16; 95% CI, 0.21-12.30; P = .33). Exploratory analysis suggested an association with HIV-1 acquisition among women with ≥2 positive genital PCR specimens (rate ratio, 6.02; 95% CI, 0.58-34.96; P = .13). CONCLUSIONS: Despite higher HIV seroconversion rates in women with FGS, there was no statistical evidence of association, possibly due to low power. Further longitudinal studies should investigate this association in a setting with higher schistosomiasis endemicity

Projected outcomes of universal testing and treatment in a generalised HIV epidemic in Zambia and South Africa (the HPTN 071 [PopART] trial): a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: The long-term impact of universal home-based testing and treatment as part of universal testing and treatment (UTT) on HIV incidence is unknown. We made projections using a detailed individual-based model of the effect of the intervention delivered in the HPTN 071 (PopART) cluster-randomised trial. METHODS: In this modelling study, we fitted an individual-based model to the HIV epidemic and HIV care cascade in 21 high prevalence communities in Zambia and South Africa that were part of the PopART cluster-randomised trial (intervention period Nov 1, 2013, to Dec 31, 2017). The model represents coverage of home-based testing and counselling by age and sex, delivered as part of the trial, antiretroviral therapy (ART) uptake, and any changes in national guidelines on ART eligibility. In PopART, communities were randomly assigned to one of three arms: arm A received the full PopART intervention for all individuals who tested positive for HIV, arm B received the intervention with ART provided in accordance with national guidelines, and arm C received standard of care. We fitted the model to trial data twice using Approximate Bayesian Computation, once before data unblinding and then again after data unblinding. We compared projections of intervention impact with observed effects, and for four different scenarios of UTT up to Jan 1, 2030 in the study communities. FINDINGS: Compared with standard of care, a 51% (95% credible interval 40-60) reduction in HIV incidence is projected if the trial intervention (arms A and B combined) is continued from 2020 to 2030, over and above a declining trend in HIV incidence under standard of care. INTERPRETATION: A widespread and continued commitment to UTT via home-based testing and counselling can have a substantial effect on HIV incidence in high prevalence communities. FUNDING: National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, US President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief, International Initiative for Impact Evaluation, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, National Institute on Drug Abuse, and National Institute of Mental Health

Factors affecting e-government adoption in Liberia: A practitioner perspective

Globally, e‐government implementation is growing, including in sub‐Saharan Africa, evidenced by the frequently reported benefits of e‐government programs in developed countries. The government of Liberia is pursuing an e‐government agenda to improve governance through the effective and efficient use of technology in the public sector. Liberia, one of the most underdeveloped countries in the world is bedeviled by over 10 years of civil war and most recently an Ebola virus outbreak which created severe human capacity gaps. The government has realized that in order to accelerate development and enhance its peoples' livelihood, it must integrate technology into its public administration procedures. However, the implementation of e‐government in Liberia has had mixed success. The objective of this research is to identify critical factors affecting the implementation of e‐government in Liberia. To achieve this aim, a reflective practitioner approach is employed as a lens to collect and guide the analysis of qualitative data. The data are collected through focus group discussion with senior IT practitioners (CIOs) of Liberia who are leading the delivery of e‐initiatives in Liberia. The factors identified are intended to guide how e‐government initiatives are implemented in Liberia. This research contributes to raising awareness about Liberia's e‐government program

The Heterogeneity of FDI in Sub-Saharan Africa How Do the Horizontal Productivity Effects of Emerging Investors Differ from Those of Traditional Players?

This paper analyzes the horizontal productivity effects of foreign direct investment (FDI) from industrialized and developing countries in 10 sub-Saharan African countries. We establish a unique data set by combining data from the World Bank Enterprise Surveys that allow us to distinguish between foreign investors from sub-Saharan Africa, Asia, Europe, the Middle East, and North Africa. We find strong evidence of horizontal productivity spillovers to domestic firms derived from foreign-firm presence. However, these effects are clearly dependent on domestic firms' absorptive capacity. The largest productivity effects seem to be driven by investors from sub-Saharan Africa. Our analysis also shows that productivity effects differ according to the income level of host countries. Overall, the strongest productivity effects seem to materialize in lower-middle-income countries. These key findings emphasize the increasing importance of emerging investors, beyond the traditional players from industrialized countries, in sub-Saharan Africa