Gathering insights on the forest from the trees: a new metric for financial conditions

By incorporating the Harvey accumulator into the large approximate dynamic factor framework of Doz et al. (2006), we are able to construct a coincident index of financial conditions from a large unbalanced panel of mixed frequency financial indicators. We relate our financial conditions index, or FCI, to the concept of a "financial crisis" using Markov-switching techniques. After demonstrating the ability of the index to capture "crisis" periods in U.S. financial history, we present several policy-geared threshold rules for the FCI using Receiver Operator Characteristics (ROC) curve analysis.Financial crises ; Financial markets

Chicago Fed National Activity Index turns ten - analyzing its first decade of performance

This article discusses how the Chicago Fed National Activity Index has performed as a “real-time” indicator of economic activity and related inflationary pressure.

Monitoring financial stability: a financial conditions index approach

Monitoring financial stability requires an understanding of both how traditional and evolving financial markets relate to each other and how they relate to economic conditions. This article describes two new indexes of financial conditions that aim to quantify these relationships.Financial stability ; Financial crises ; Finance

What is the relationship between large deficits and inflation in industrialized countries?

Examining industrialized countries, the authors find that large deficits are not associated with higher inflation contemporaneously, nor are they associated with the emergence of higher inflation in subsequent years. This finding suggests that countries that can afford large deficits have built solid reputations and institutions supporting a sound monetary policy and the reversion to a stable fiscal regime.

A Practitioner's Guide and MATLAB Toolbox for Mixed Frequency State Space Models

The use of mixed frequency data is now common in many applications, ranging from the analysis of high frequency financial time series to large cross-sections of macroeconomic time series. In this article, we show how state space methods can easily facilitate both estimation and inference in these settings. After presenting a unified treatment of the state space approach to mixed frequency data modeling, we provide a series of applications to demonstrate how our MATLAB toolbox can make the estimation and post-processing of these models straightforward

DataSHIELD – new directions and dimensions

In disciplines such as biomedicine and social sciences, sharing and combining sensitive individual-level data is often prohibited by ethical-legal or governance constraints and other barriers such as the control of intellectual property or the huge sample sizes. DataSHIELD (Data Aggregation Through Anonymous Summary-statistics from Harmonised Individual-levEL Databases) is a distributed approach that allows the analysis of sensitive individual-level data from one study, and the co-analysis of such data from several studies simultaneously without physically pooling them or disclosing any data. Following initial proof of principle, a stable DataSHIELD platform has now been implemented in a number of epidemiological consortia. This paper reports three new applications of DataSHIELD including application to post-publication sensitive data analysis, text data analysis and privacy protected data visualisation. Expansion of DataSHIELD analytic functionality and application to additional data types demonstrate the broad applications of the software beyond biomedical sciences

Cryogenic Memory Architecture Integrating Spin Hall Effect based Magnetic Memory and Superconductive Cryotron Devices

One of the most challenging obstacles to realizing exascale computing is minimizing the energy consumption of L2 cache, main memory, and interconnects to that memory. For promising cryogenic computing schemes utilizing Josephson junction superconducting logic, this obstacle is exacerbated by the cryogenic system requirements that expose the technology's lack of high-density, high-speed and power-efficient memory. Here we demonstrate an array of cryogenic memory cells consisting of a non-volatile three-terminal magnetic tunnel junction element driven by the spin Hall effect, combined with a superconducting heater-cryotron bit-select element. The write energy of these memory elements is roughly 8 pJ with a bit-select element, designed to achieve a minimum overhead power consumption of about 30%. Individual magnetic memory cells measured at 4 K show reliable switching with write error rates below $10^{-6}$, and a 4x4 array can be fully addressed with bit select error rates of $10^{-6}$. This demonstration is a first step towards a full cryogenic memory architecture targeting energy and performance specifications appropriate for applications in superconducting high performance and quantum computing control systems, which require significant memory resources operating at 4 K.Comment: 10 pages, 6 figures, submitte

MIDA boronates are hydrolysed fast and slow by two different mechanisms

MIDA boronates (N-methylimidodiacetic boronic acid esters) serve as an increasingly general platform for small-molecule construction based on building blocks, largely because of the dramatic and general rate differences with which they are hydrolysed under various basic conditions. Yet the mechanistic underpinnings of these rate differences have remained unclear, which has hindered efforts to address the current limitations of this chemistry. Here we show that there are two distinct mechanisms for this hydrolysis: one is base mediated and the other neutral. The former can proceed more than three orders of magnitude faster than the latter, and involves a rate-limiting attack by a hydroxide at a MIDA carbonyl carbon. The alternative 'neutral' hydrolysis does not require an exogenous acid or base and involves rate-limiting B-N bond cleavage by a small water cluster, (H2O)n. The two mechanisms can operate in parallel, and their relative rates are readily quantified by (18)O incorporation. Whether hydrolysis is 'fast' or 'slow' is dictated by the pH, the water activity and the mass-transfer rates between phases. These findings stand to enable, in a rational way, an even more effective and widespread utilization of MIDA boronates in synthesis

Gathering Insights on the Forest from the Trees: A New Metric for Financial Conditions

By incorporating the Harvey accumulator into the large approximate dynamic factor framework of Doz et al. (2006), we are able to construct a coincident index of financial conditions from a large unbalanced panel of mixed frequency financial indicators. We relate our financial conditions index, or FCI, to the concept of a financial crisis using Markov-switching techniques. After demonstrating the ability of the index to capture crisis periods in U.S. financial history, we present several policy-geared threshold rules for the FCI using Receiver Operator Characteristics (ROC) curve analysis