An investigation into the performance and representation of a stochastic evolutionary neural tree

Copyright Springer.The Stochastic Competitive Evolutionary Neural Tree (SCENT) is a new unsupervised neural net that dynamically evolves a representational structure in response to its training data. Uniquely SCENT requires no initial parameter setting as it autonomously creates appropriate parameterisation at runtime. Pruning and convergence are stochastically controlled using locally calculated heuristics. A thorough investigation into the performance of SCENT is presented. The network is compared to other dynamic tree based models and to a high quality flat clusterer over a variety of data sets and runs

Global patterns and drivers of avian extinctions at the species and subspecies level

Birds have long fascinated scientists and travellers, so their distribution and abundance through time have been better documented than those of other organisms. Many bird species are known to have gone extinct, but information on subspecies extinctions has never been synthesised comprehensively. We reviewed the timing, spatial patterns, trends and causes of avian extinctions on a global scale, identifying 279 ultrataxa (141 monotypic species and 138 subspecies of polytypic species) that have gone extinct since 1500. Species extinctions peaked in the early 20th century, then fell until the mid 20th century, and have subsequently accelerated. However, extinctions of ultrataxa peaked in the second half of the 20th century. This trend reflects a consistent decline in the rate of extinctions on islands since the beginning of the 20th century, but an acceleration in the extinction rate on continents. Most losses (78.7% of species and 63.0% of subspecies) occurred on oceanic islands. Geographic foci of extinctions include the Hawaiian Islands (36 taxa), mainland Australia and islands (29 taxa), the Mascarene Islands (27 taxa), New Zealand (22 taxa) and French Polynesia (19 taxa). The major proximate drivers of extinction for both species and subspecies are invasive alien species (58.2% and 50.7% of species and subspecies, respectively), hunting (52.4% and 18.8%) and agriculture, including non-timber crops and livestock farming (14.9% and 31.9%). In general, the distribution and drivers of subspecific extinctions are similar to those for species extinctions. However, our finding that, when subspecies are considered, the extinction rate has accelerated in recent decades is both novel and alarming

Epide·miology of non-fatal injuries due to external causes in Johannesburg-Soweto Part I. Methodology and materials

In this, the first of two articles examining the epidemiology of non-fatal trauma in Johannesburg-Soweto, we define case inclusion criteria, and discuss the methodology and materials used in this low-cost, hospital-based survey. The survey was conducted between 8 June 1989 and 24 August 1990. Sampling of both inpatient trauma cases and those seen in casualty departments took place in 6 state and 5 private hospitals located within or nearby the Johannesburg magisterial district. Demographic details about each patient, as well as information concerning spatial and temporal details of the incident, involvement of alcohol or drugs, diagnosis, severity of injury, and placement after casualty treatment, were collected by interviewing each patient. Data concerning the age, sex and racial composition of the background population were assembled from a number of sources. After discussing the internal limitations of this methodology, it is concluded that its findings may be of limited use for improving secondary interventions, but are of definite value for trauma prevention programmes

Adapting global biodiversity indicators to the national scale: A Red List Index for Australian birds

The Red List Index (RLI), which uses information from the IUCN Red List to track trends in the projected overall extinction risk of sets of species, is among the indicators adopted by the world’s governments to assess performance under the Convention on Biological Diversity and the United Nations Millennium Development Goals. For greatest impact, such indicators need to be measured and used at a national scale as well as globally. We present the first application of the RLI based on assessments of extinction risk at the national scale using IUCN’s recommended methods, evaluating trends in the status of Australian birds for 1990–2010. We calculated RLIs based on the number of taxa in each Red List category and the number that changed categories between assessments in 1990, 2000 and 2010 as a result of genuine improvement or deterioration in status. A novel comparison between trends at the species and ultrataxon (subspecies or monotypic species) level showed that these were remarkably similar, suggesting that current global RLI trends at the species level may also be a useful surrogate for tracking losses in genetic diversity at this scale, for which no global measures currently exist. The RLI for Australia is declining faster than global rates when migratory shorebirds and seabirds are included, but not when changes resulting from threats in Australia alone are considered. The RLI of oceanic island taxa has declined faster than those on the continent or on continental islands. There were also differences in the performance of different jurisdictions within Australia

Epidemiology of non-fatal injuries due to external causes in Johannesburg-Soweto Part 11. Incidence and determinants

A total of 3535 trauma cases were enumerated in Johannesburg- Soweto between 1989 and 1990 in the course of 271 hospital ward rounds and 43 casualty watches. The overall trauma incidence was 2886 new cases per annum per 100000 population, rising to 19872 for coloured males aged 20 - 24 years and to 8761 for black males aged 20 - 24 years. Overall the malelfemale ratio was 2,9 rising to 6 or more in adolescence (15 - 19) for blacks andcoloureds. There were some 156 new resident cases of trauma daily; half these were victims of interpersonal violence, and coloureds constituted 22% of this group, although forming only 8% of the denominator population. Witluegards to cause, most trauma among blacks and coloureds arose from interpersonal violence and significantly less from transport accidents. Among blacks injured in transport accidents (the majority of which involved motor vehicles) most were pedestrians, whereas most whites injured in such accidents were occupants of vehicles. For all groups trauma was most likely to be incurred 'in the street' although for white and coloured women the home was most dangerous. The implications of these and related findings for treatment and prevention and briefly reviewed

Violence Info methodology

The Violence Prevention Information System (Violence Info) aims to improve access to scientific information about all types of interpersonal violence, including findings on prevalence rates, risk factors, consequences, and prevention and response strategies, through creating a data repository and displaying the information in a user-friendly format on a website. This document details the methodology used to develop the Violence Info data repository and website

An unexpected disruption of the atmospheric quasi-biennial oscillation

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from AAAS via the DOI in this recordWe thank the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts for providing ERA-Interim and Operational Analysis data (www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts) and the Freie Universität Berlin for providing radiosonde data (www.geo.fu-berlin.de/en/met/ag/strat/produkte/qbo). The CMIP5 data was obtained from the British Atmospheric Data Centre (browse.ceda.ac.uk/browse/badc/cmip5). A summary of data used in the study is listed in table S1.One of the most repeatable phenomena seen in the atmosphere, the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) between prevailing eastward and westward wind jets in the equatorial stratosphere (approximately 16 to 50 kilometers altitude), was unexpectedly disrupted in February 2016. An unprecedented westward jet formed within the eastward phase in the lower stratosphere and cannot be accounted for by the standard QBO paradigm based on vertical momentum transport. Instead, the primary cause was waves transporting momentum from the Northern Hemisphere. Seasonal forecasts did not predict the disruption, but analogous QBO disruptions are seen very occasionally in some climate simulations. A return to more typical QBO behavior within the next year is forecast, although the possibility of more frequent occurrences of similar disruptions is projected for a warming climate.S.M.O. was supported by UK Natural Environment Research Council grants NE/M005828/1 and NE/P006779/1. A.A.S., J.R.K., and N.B. were supported by the Joint UK Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy/Defra Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme (GA01101). A.A.S. and J.R.K. were additionally supported by the EU Seventh Framework Programme SPECS (Seasonal-to-decadal climate Prediction for the improvement of European Climate Services) project

An assessment of threats to terrestrial protected areas

Protected areas (PAs) represent a cornerstone of efforts to safeguard biodiversity, and if effective should reduce threats to biodiversity. We present the most comprehensive assessment of threats to terrestrial PAs, based on in-situ data from 1,961 PAs across 149 countries, assessed by PA managers and local stakeholders. Unsustainable hunting was the most commonly reported threat and occurred in 61% of all PAs, followed by disturbance from recreational activities occurring in 55%, and natural system modifications from fire or its suppression in 49%. The number of reported threats was lower in PAs with greater remoteness, higher control of corruption and lower human development scores. The main reported threats in developing countries were linked to overexploitation for resource extraction, while negative impacts from recreational activities dominated in developed countries. Our results show that many of the most serious threats to PAs are difficult to monitor with remote sensing, and highlight the importance of in situ threat data to inform the implementation of more effective biodiversity conservation in the global protected area estate

Explanation in mathematical conversations:An empirical investigation

Analysis of online mathematics forums can help reveal how explanation is used by mathematicians; we contend that this use of explanation may help to provide an informal conceptualization of simplicity. We extracted six conjectures from recent philosophical work on the occurrence and characteristics of explanation in mathematics. We then tested these conjectures against a corpus derived from online mathematical discussions. To this end, we employed two techniques, one based on indicator terms, the other on a random sample of comments lacking such indicators. Our findings suggest that explanation is widespread in mathematical practice and that it occurs not only in proofs but also in other mathematical contexts. Our work also provides further evidence for the utility of empirical methods in addressing philosophical problems

Predicting incident delirium diagnoses using data from primary-care electronic health records

Importance risk factors for delirium in hospital inpatients are well established, but less is known about whether delirium occurring in the community or during an emergency admission to hospital care might be predicted from routine primary-care records. Objectives identify risk factors in primary-care electronic health records (PC-EHR) predictive of delirium occurring in the community or recorded in the initial episode in emergency hospitalisation. Test predictive performance against the cumulative frailty index. Design Stage 1: case-control; Stages 2 and 3: retrospective cohort. Setting clinical practice research datalink: PC-EHR linked to hospital discharge data from England. Subjects Stage 1: 17,286 patients with delirium aged ≥60 years plus 85,607 controls. Stages 2 and 3: patients ≥ 60 years (n = 429,548 in 2015), split into calibration and validation groups. Methods Stage 1: logistic regression to identify associations of 110 candidate risk measures with delirium. Stage 2: calibrating risk factor weights. Stage 3: validation in independent sample using area under the curve (AUC) receiver operating characteristic. Results fifty-five risk factors were predictive, in domains including: cognitive impairment or mental illness, psychoactive drugs, frailty, infection, hyponatraemia and anticholinergic drugs. The derived model predicted 1-year incident delirium (AUC = 0.867, 0.852:0.881) and mortality (AUC = 0.846, 0.842:0.853), outperforming the frailty index (AUC = 0.761, 0.740:0.782). Individuals with the highest 10% of predicted delirium risk accounted for 55% of incident delirium over 1 year. Conclusions a risk factor model for delirium using data in PC-EHR performed well, identifying individuals at risk of new onsets of delirium. This model has potential for supporting preventive interventions