Stochastic Processes Are Key Determinants of Short-Term Evolution in Influenza A Virus

Understanding the evolutionary dynamics of influenza A virus is central to its surveillance and control. While immune-driven antigenic drift is a key determinant of viral evolution across epidemic seasons, the evolutionary processes shaping influenza virus diversity within seasons are less clear. Here we show with a phylogenetic analysis of 413 complete genomes of human H3N2 influenza A viruses collected between 1997 and 2005 from New York State, United States, that genetic diversity is both abundant and largely generated through the seasonal importation of multiple divergent clades of the same subtype. These clades cocirculated within New York State, allowing frequent reassortment and generating genome-wide diversity. However, relatively low levels of positive selection and genetic diversity were observed at amino acid sites considered important in antigenic drift. These results indicate that adaptive evolution occurs only sporadically in influenza A virus; rather, the stochastic processes of viral migration and clade reassortment play a vital role in shaping short-term evolutionary dynamics. Thus, predicting future patterns of influenza virus evolution for vaccine strain selection is inherently complex and requires intensive surveillance, whole-genome sequencing, and phenotypic analysis

Calcium control of triphasic hippocampal STDP

Bush D, Jin Y. Calcium control of triphasic hippocampal STDP. Journal of Computational Neuroscience. 2012;33(3):495-514.Synaptic plasticity is believed to represent the neural correlate of mammalian learning and memory function. It has been demonstrated that changes in synaptic conductance can be induced by approximately synchronous pairings of pre- and post- synaptic action potentials delivered at low frequencies. It has also been established that NMDAr-dependent calcium influx into dendritic spines represents a critical signal for plasticity induction, and can account for this spike-timing dependent plasticity (STDP) as well as experimental data obtained using other stimulation protocols. However, subsequent empirical studies have delineated a more complex relationship between spike-timing, firing rate, stimulus duration and post-synaptic bursting in dictating changes in the conductance of hippocampal excitatory synapses. Here, we present a detailed biophysical model of single dendritic spines on a CA1 pyramidal neuron, describe the NMDAr-dependent calcium influx generated by different stimulation protocols, and construct a parsimonious model of calcium driven kinase and phosphatase dynamics that dictate the probability of stochastic transitions between binary synaptic weight states in a Markov model. We subsequently demonstrate that this approach can account for a range of empirical observations regarding the dynamics of synaptic plasticity induced by different stimulation protocols, under regimes of pharmacological blockade and metaplasticity. Finally, we highlight the strengths and weaknesses of this parsimonious, unified computational synaptic plasticity model, discuss differences between the properties of cortical and hippocampal plasticity highlighted by the experimental literature, and the manner in which further empirical and theoretical research might elucidate the cellular basis of mammalian learning and memory function

Meta-analysis of individual-patient data from EVAR-1, DREAM, OVER and ACE trials comparing outcomes of endovascular or open repair for abdominal aortic aneurysm over 5 years.

BACKGROUND: The erosion of the early mortality advantage of elective endovascular aneurysm repair (EVAR) compared with open repair of abdominal aortic aneurysm remains without a satisfactory explanation. METHODS: An individual-patient data meta-analysis of four multicentre randomized trials of EVAR versus open repair was conducted to a prespecified analysis plan, reporting on mortality, aneurysm-related mortality and reintervention. RESULTS: The analysis included 2783 patients, with 14 245 person-years of follow-up (median 5·5 years). Early (0-6 months after randomization) mortality was lower in the EVAR groups (46 of 1393 versus 73 of 1390 deaths; pooled hazard ratio 0·61, 95 per cent c.i. 0·42 to 0·89; P = 0·010), primarily because 30-day operative mortality was lower in the EVAR groups (16 deaths versus 40 for open repair; pooled odds ratio 0·40, 95 per cent c.i. 0·22 to 0·74). Later (within 3 years) the survival curves converged, remaining converged to 8 years. Beyond 3 years, aneurysm-related mortality was significantly higher in the EVAR groups (19 deaths versus 3 for open repair; pooled hazard ratio 5·16, 1·49 to 17·89; P = 0·010). Patients with moderate renal dysfunction or previous coronary artery disease had no early survival advantage under EVAR. Those with peripheral artery disease had lower mortality under open repair (39 deaths versus 62 for EVAR; P = 0·022) in the period from 6 months to 4 years after randomization. CONCLUSION: The early survival advantage in the EVAR group, and its subsequent erosion, were confirmed. Over 5 years, patients of marginal fitness had no early survival advantage from EVAR compared with open repair. Aneurysm-related mortality and patients with low ankle : brachial pressure index contributed to the erosion of the early survival advantage for the EVAR group. Trial registration numbers: EVAR-1, ISRCTN55703451; DREAM (Dutch Randomized Endovascular Aneurysm Management), NCT00421330; ACE (Anévrysme de l'aorte abdominale, Chirurgie versus Endoprothèse), NCT00224718; OVER (Open Versus Endovascular Repair Trial for Abdominal Aortic Aneurysms), NCT00094575