Recent changes of water discharge and sediment load in the Yellow River basin, China

The Yellow River basin contributes approximately 6% of the sediment load from all river systems globally, and the annual runoff directly supports 12% of the Chinese population. As a result, describing and understanding recent variations of water discharge and sediment load under global change scenarios are of considerable importance. The present study considers the annual hydrologic series of the water discharge and sediment load of the Yellow River basin obtained from 15 gauging stations (10 mainstream, 5 tributaries). The Mann-Kendall test method was adopted to detect both gradual and abrupt change of hydrological series since the 1950s. With the exception of the area draining to the Upper Tangnaihai station, results indicate that both water discharge and sediment load have decreased significantly (p<0.05). The declining trend is greater with distance downstream, and drainage area has a significant positive effect on the rate of decline. It is suggested that the abrupt change of the water discharge from the late 1980s to the early 1990s arose from human extraction, and that the abrupt change in sediment load was linked to disturbance from reservoir construction.Geography, PhysicalGeosciences, MultidisciplinarySCI(E)43ARTICLE4541-5613

A regional Bayesian POT model for flood frequency analysis

Flood frequency analysis is usually based on the fitting of an extreme value distribution to the local streamflow series. However, when the local data series is short, frequency analysis results become unreliable. Regional frequency analysis is a convenient way to reduce the estimation uncertainty. In this work, we propose a regional Bayesian model for short record length sites. This model is less restrictive than the index flood model while preserving the formalism of "homogeneous regions". The performance of the proposed model is assessed on a set of gauging stations in France. The accuracy of quantile estimates as a function of the degree of homogeneity of the pooling group is also analysed. The results indicate that the regional Bayesian model outperforms the index flood model and local estimators. Furthermore, it seems that working with relatively large and homogeneous regions may lead to more accurate results than working with smaller and highly homogeneous regions

Radio emission from Supernova Remnants

The explosion of a supernova releases almost instantaneously about 10^51 ergs of mechanic energy, changing irreversibly the physical and chemical properties of large regions in the galaxies. The stellar ejecta, the nebula resulting from the powerful shock waves, and sometimes a compact stellar remnant, constitute a supernova remnant (SNR). They can radiate their energy across the whole electromagnetic spectrum, but the great majority are radio sources. Almost 70 years after the first detection of radio emission coming from a SNR, great progress has been achieved in the comprehension of their physical characteristics and evolution. We review the present knowledge of different aspects of radio remnants, focusing on sources of the Milky Way and the Magellanic Clouds, where the SNRs can be spatially resolved. We present a brief overview of theoretical background, analyze morphology and polarization properties, and review and critical discuss different methods applied to determine the radio spectrum and distances. The consequences of the interaction between the SNR shocks and the surrounding medium are examined, including the question of whether SNRs can trigger the formation of new stars. Cases of multispectral comparison are presented. A section is devoted to reviewing recent results of radio SNRs in the Magellanic Clouds, with particular emphasis on the radio properties of SN 1987A, an ideal laboratory to investigate dynamical evolution of an SNR in near real time. The review concludes with a summary of issues on radio SNRs that deserve further study, and analyzing the prospects for future research with the latest generation radio telescopes.Comment: Revised version. 48 pages, 15 figure

Climate change and the long-term viability of the World’s busiest heavy haul ice road

Climate models project that the northern high latitudes will warm at a rate in excess of the global mean. This will pose severe problems for Arctic and sub-Arctic infrastructure dependent on maintaining low temperatures for structural integrity. This is the case for the economically important Tibbitt to Contwoyto Winter Road (TCWR)—the world’s busiest heavy haul ice road, spanning 400 km across mostly frozen lakes within the Northwest Territories of Canada. In this study, future climate scenarios are developed for the region using statistical downscaling methods. In addition, changes in lake ice thickness are projected based on historical relationships between measured ice thickness and air temperatures. These projections are used to infer the theoretical operational dates of the TCWR based on weight limits for trucks on the ice. Results across three climate models driven by four RCPs reveal a considerable warming trend over the coming decades. Projected changes in ice thickness reveal a trend towards thinner lake ice and a reduced time window when lake ice is at sufficient thickness to support trucks on the ice road, driven by increasing future temperatures. Given the uncertainties inherent in climate modelling and the resultant projections, caution should be exercised in interpreting the magnitude of these scenarios. More certain is the direction of change, with a clear trend towards winter warming that will reduce the operation time window of the TCWR. This illustrates the need for planners and policymakers to consider future changes in climate when planning annual haulage along the TCWR

Nanoceria Inhibit the Development and Promote the Regression of Pathologic Retinal Neovascularization in the Vldlr Knockout Mouse

Many neurodegenerative diseases are known to occur and progress because of oxidative stress, the presence of reactive oxygen species (ROS) in excess of the cellular defensive capabilities. Age related macular degeneration (AMD), diabetic retinopathy (DR) and inherited retinal degeneration share oxidative stress as a common node upstream of the blinding effects of these diseases. Knockout of the Vldlr gene results in a mouse that develops intraretinal and subretinal neovascular lesions within the first month of age and is an excellent model for a form of AMD called retinal angiomatous proliferation (RAP). Cerium oxide nanoparticles (nanoceria) catalytically scavenge ROS by mimicking the activities of superoxide dismutase and catalase. A single intravitreal injection of nanoceria into the Vldlr-/- eye was shown to inhibit: the rise in ROS in the Vldlr-/- retina, increases in vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) in the photoreceptor layer, and the formation of intraretinal and subretinal neovascular lesions. Of more therapeutic interest, injection of nanoceria into older mice (postnatal day 28) resulted in the regression of existing vascular lesions indicating that the pathologic neovessels require the continual production of excessive ROS. Our data demonstrate the unique ability of nanoceria to prevent downstream effects of oxidative stress in vivo and support their therapeutic potential for treatment of neurodegenerative diseases such as AMD and DR

Changes in the variability and periodicity of precipitation in Scotland

This paper analyses the temporal and spatial changes in the amount and variability of rainfall in Scotland. The sequential Mann–Kendall test reveals that total annual precipitation has increased across Scotland since the 1970s with increasing trends in variability beginning between the mid-1960s and the mid-1970s. Whilst temporally consistent increasing trends in precipitation totals prevail in the West, many weather stations in the East have experienced subsequent trend turning points in the following two decades, explaining the larger magnitude of the trends in western Scotland in recent decades. Trend analyses on six measures of rainfall variability indicate an increase in rainfall variability during the period 1961–2000, as measured by the intra-annual variance, the winter to summer precipitation ratio and the annual cumulative sum range, with decreasing trends observed in the number of dry days. Periodicities associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation could explain the observed temporal variability of rainfall

The Peripheral Binding of 14-3-3γ to Membranes Involves Isoform-Specific Histidine Residues

Mammalian 14-3-3 protein scaffolds include seven conserved isoforms that bind numerous phosphorylated protein partners and regulate many cellular processes. Some 14-3-3-isoforms, notably γ, have elevated affinity for membranes, which might contribute to modulate the subcellular localization of the partners and substantiate the importance of investigating molecular mechanisms of membrane interaction. By applying surface plasmon resonance we here show that the binding to phospholipid bilayers is stimulated when 14-3-3γ is complexed with its partner, a peptide corresponding to the Ser19-phosphorylated N-terminal region of tyrosine hydroxylase. Moreover, membrane interaction is dependent on salts of kosmotropic ions, which also stabilize 14-3-3γ. Electrostatic analysis of available crystal structures of γ and of the non-membrane-binding ζ-isoform, complemented with molecular dynamics simulations, indicate that the electrostatic potential distribution of phosphopeptide-bound 14-3-3γ is optimal for interaction with the membrane through amphipathic helices at the N-terminal dimerization region. In addition, His158, and especially His195, both specific to 14-3-3γ and located at the convex lateral side, appeared to be pivotal for the ligand induced membrane interaction, as corroborated by site-directed mutagenesis. The participation of these histidine residues might be associated to their increased protonation upon membrane binding. Overall, these results reveal membrane-targeting motifs and give insights on mechanisms that furnish the 14-3-3γ scaffold with the capacity for tuned shuffling from soluble to membrane-bound states.This work was supported by grants from the Norwegian Cancer Society (to ØH), Junta de Andalucía, grant CVI-02483 (to JMSR), The Research Council of Norway (grant 185181 to A.M.), the Western Norway Health Authorities (grant 911618 to A.M.) and The Kristian Gerhard Jebsen Foundation (to AM)

An economic model of long-term use of celecoxib in patients with osteoarthritis

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Previous evaluations of the cost-effectiveness of the cyclooxygenase-2 selective inhibitor celecoxib (Celebrex, Pfizer Inc, USA) have produced conflicting results. The recent controversy over the cardiovascular (CV) risks of rofecoxib and other coxibs has renewed interest in the economic profile of celecoxib, the only coxib now available in the United States. The objective of our study was to evaluate the long-term cost-effectiveness of celecoxib compared with nonselective nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (nsNSAIDs) in a population of 60-year-old osteoarthritis (OA) patients with average risks of upper gastrointestinal (UGI) complications who require chronic daily NSAID therapy.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We used decision analysis based on data from the literature to evaluate cost-effectiveness from a modified societal perspective over patients' lifetimes, with outcomes expressed as incremental costs per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained. Sensitivity tests were performed to evaluate the impacts of advancing age, CV thromboembolic event risk, different analytic horizons and alternate treatment strategies after UGI adverse events.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Our main findings were: 1) the base model incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) for celecoxib versus nsNSAIDs was $31,097 per QALY; 2) the ICER per QALY was$19,309 for a model in which UGI ulcer and ulcer complication event risks increased with advancing age; 3) the ICER per QALY was $17,120 in sensitivity analyses combining serious CV thromboembolic event (myocardial infarction, stroke, CV death) risks with base model assumptions.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Our model suggests that chronic celecoxib is cost-effective versus nsNSAIDs in a population of 60-year-old OA patients with average risks of UGI events.</p

Evidence-based Kernels: Fundamental Units of Behavioral Influence

This paper describes evidence-based kernels, fundamental units of behavioral influence that appear to underlie effective prevention and treatment for children, adults, and families. A kernel is a behavior–influence procedure shown through experimental analysis to affect a specific behavior and that is indivisible in the sense that removing any of its components would render it inert. Existing evidence shows that a variety of kernels can influence behavior in context, and some evidence suggests that frequent use or sufficient use of some kernels may produce longer lasting behavioral shifts. The analysis of kernels could contribute to an empirically based theory of behavioral influence, augment existing prevention or treatment efforts, facilitate the dissemination of effective prevention and treatment practices, clarify the active ingredients in existing interventions, and contribute to efficiently developing interventions that are more effective. Kernels involve one or more of the following mechanisms of behavior influence: reinforcement, altering antecedents, changing verbal relational responding, or changing physiological states directly. The paper describes 52 of these kernels, and details practical, theoretical, and research implications, including calling for a national database of kernels that influence human behavior