Interaction of ENSO-driven Flood Variability and Anthropogenic Changes in Driving Channel Evolution: Corryong/ Nariel Creek, Australia

This is an Accepted Manuscript of an article published by Taylor & Francis in Australian Geographer on 03/09/2015, available online: 10.1080/00049182.2015.1048595Understanding the relative contributions of climatic and anthropogenic drivers of channel change are important to inform river management, especially in the context of environmental change. This global debate is especially pertinent in Australia as catchments have been severely altered since recent European settlement, and there is also strong evidence of cyclical climate variability controlling environmental systems. Corryong/Nariel Creek is an ideal setting to further study the interaction between climate and anthropogenic changes on channel evolution as it has experienced both significant periods of flood and drought, controlled by the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and extensive anthropogenic changes. Since European settlement the floodplain has been completely cleared, the riparian zone almost entirely invaded by willows, and every reach of the channel has experienced some form of direct channel modification. Through the combined analysis of channel evolution, climate changes and anthropogenic history of the river it was found that both the ENSO-driven climate and anthropogenic drivers are significant, although at different scales of channel change. Significant straightening in response to land clearing in the early twentieth century occurred before any records of direct channel modifications. Following this, most river management works were in response to instabilities created in the clearing period, or to instabilities created by flooding triggering a new phase of instability in reaches which had already undergone stabilisation works. Overall, human activities triggered channel instability via land clearing, and management works since then generally exacerbated erosion during high flows that are driven by climate fluctuations. This research raises the interesting question of whether rivers in Australia have become more responsive to the ENSO cycle since the clearing of catchment and riparian vegetation, or whether the past response to climate variability was different

Semi-arid zone caves:Evaporation and hydrological controls on δ¹⁸O drip water composition and implications for speleothem paleoclimate reconstructions

Oxygen isotope ratios in speleothems may be affected by external processes that are independent of climate, such as karst hydrology and kinetic fractionation. Consequently, there has been a shift towards characterising and understanding these processes through cave monitoring studies, particularly focussing on temperate zones where precipitation exceeds evapotranspiration. Here, we investigate oxygen isotope systematics at Wellington Caves in semi-arid, SE Australia, where evapotranspiration exceeds precipitation. We use a novel D2O isotopic tracer in a series of artificial irrigations, supplemented by pre-irrigation data comprised four years of drip monitoring and three years of stable isotope analysis of both drip waters and rainfall. This study reveals that: (1) evaporative processes in the unsaturated zone dominate the isotopic composition of drip waters; (2) significant soil zone ‘wetting up’ is required to overcome soil moisture deficits in order to achieve infiltration, which is highly dependent on antecedent hydro-climatic conditions; (3) lateral flow, preferential flow and sorption in the soil zone are important in redistributing subsurface zone water; (4) isotopic breakthrough curves suggest clear evidence of piston-flow at some drip sites where an older front of water discharged prior to artificial irrigation water; and (5) water residence times in a shallow vadose zone (<2 m) are highly variable and can exceed six months. Oxygen isotope speleothem records from semi-arid regions are therefore more likely to contain archives of alternating paleo-aridity and paleo-recharge, rather than paleo-rainfall e.g. the amount effect or mean annual. Speleothem-forming drip waters will be dominated by evaporative enrichment, up to ∼3‰ in the context of this study, relative to precipitation-weighted mean annual rainfall. The oxygen isotope variability of such coeval records may further be influenced by flow path and storage in the unsaturated zone that is not only drip specific but also influenced by internal cave climatic conditions, which may vary spatially in the cave

Resilience, vulnerability and adaptive capacity of an inland rural town prone to flooding: a climate change adaptation case study of Charleville, Queensland, Australia

Australia is currently experiencing climate change effects in the form of higher temperatures and more frequent extreme events, such as floods. Floods are its costliest form of natural disaster accounting for losses estimated at over $300 million per annum. This article presents an historical case study of climate adaptation of an Australian town that is subject to frequent flooding. Charleville is a small, inland rural town in Queensland situated on an extensive flood plain, with no significant elevated areas available for relocation. The study aimed to gain an understanding of the vulnerability, resilience and adaptive capacity of this community by studying the 2008 flood event. Structured questionnaires were administered in personal interviews in February 2010 to householders and businesses affected by the 2008 flood, and to institutional personnel servicing the region (n=91). Data were analysed using appropriate quantitative and qualitative techniques. Charleville was found to be staunchly resilient, with high levels of organisation and cooperation, and well-developed and functioning social and institutional networks. The community is committed to remaining in the town despite the prospect of continued future flooding. Its main vulnerabilities included low levels of insurance cover (32% residents, 43% businesses had cover) and limited monitoring data to warn of impending flooding. Detailed flood modelling and additional river height gauging stations are needed to enable more targeted evacuations. Further mitigation works (eg., investigate desilting Bradley’s Gully and carry out an engineering assessment) and more affordable insurance products are needed. Regular information on how residents can prepare for floods and the roles different organisations play are suggested. A key finding was that residents believe they have a personal responsibility for preparation and personal mitigation activities, and these activities contribute substantially to Charleville’s ability to respond to and cope with flood events. More research into the psychological impacts of floods is recommended. Charleville is a valuable representation of climate change adaptation and how communities facing natural disasters should organise and operate

Comparative study of conceptual versus distributed hydrologic modelling to evaluate the impact of climate change on future runoff in unregulated catchments

The application of two distinctively different hydrologic models, (conceptual-HBV) and (distributed-BTOPMC), was compared to simulate the future runoff across three unregulated catchments of the Australian Hydrologic Reference Stations (HRSs) namely Harvey catchment in WA, Beardy and Goulburn catchments in NSW. These catchments have experienced significant runoff reduction during the last decades due to climate change and human activities. The Budyko-elasticity method was employed to assign the influences of human activities and climate change on runoff variations. After estimating the contribution of climate change in runoff reduction from the past runoff regime, the downscaled future climate signals from a multi-model ensemble of eight GCMs of the CMIP5 under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios were used to simulate the future daily runoff at the three HRSs for the mid-(2046–2065) and late-(2080–2099) 21st-century. Results show that the conceptual model performs better than the distributed model in capturing the observed streamflow across the three contributing catchments. The performance of the models was relatively compatible in the overall direction of future streamflow change, regardless of the magnitude, and incompatible regarding the change in the direction of high and low flows for both future climate scenarios. Both models predicted a decline in wet and dry season's streamflow across the three catchments

Restoration thinning accelerates structural development and carbon sequestration in an endangered Australian ecosystem

P>1. Restoration thinning involves the selective removal of stems in woody ecosystems to restore historical or ecologically desirable ecosystem structure and processes. Thinning may also accelerate carbon sequestration in dense regenerating forests. This study considers restoration thinning effects on both structural development and carbon sequestration in a regenerating forest ecosystem

Synergistic satellite assessment of global vegetation health in relation to ENSO‐induced droughts and pluvials

We used environmental metrics developed from multi-source satellite observations to quantify the global influence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events on surface wetting and drying anomalies, and their impact on vegetation health. The environmental metrics included a microwave surface wetness index (ASWI) incorporating near-surface atmospheric vapor pressure deficit (VPD), volumetric soil moisture (VSM), and land surface fractional water cover (FW) derived from Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR) observations, and the vegetation health index (VHI) derived from NOAA Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) observations. The combined ASWI and VHI analysis reveals complex ENSO related impacts on the distribution of water availability to plant communities, and variable vegetation sensitivity to associated drought and pluvial events. A delayed VHI response to changes in surface wetness (up to 3.4 months) was observed, whereby the ASWI may provide an effective forecast predictor of climate impacts on vegetation health. The intense 2015/2016 El Niño event coincided with strong ASWI and VHI latitudinal correspondence (R ≥ 0.73). The cascading impacts of climate anomalies on water cycle components and vegetation were further investigated over ENSO-sensitive sub-regions including Amazonia, Australia, southern Africa, and the South American Paraná delta region. The ASWI component information linked the effect of drought and pluvial events on vegetation health to underlying changes in surface water inundation, soil moisture and atmospheric moisture deficits. The new satellite-based assessments reveal the global complexity of ENSO-related impacts on surface water storages, and the influence of these climate and hydrologic perturbations on ecosystem productivity.</p