Maximum likelihood analysis of systematic errors in interferometric observations of the cosmic microwave background

We investigate the impact of instrumental systematic errors in interferometric measurements of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) temperature and polarization power spectra. We simulate interferometric CMB observations to generate mock visibilities and estimate power spectra using the statistically optimal maximum likelihood technique. We define a quadratic error measure to determine allowable levels of systematic error that do not induce power spectrum errors beyond a given tolerance. As an example, in this study we focus on differential pointing errors. The effects of other systematics can be simulated by this pipeline in a straightforward manner. We find that, in order to accurately recover the underlying B-modes for r=0.01 at 28<l<384, Gaussian-distributed pointing errors must be controlled to 0.7^\circ rms for an interferometer with an antenna configuration similar to QUBIC, in agreement with analytical estimates. Only the statistical uncertainty for 28<l<88 would be changed at ~10% level. With the same instrumental configuration, we find the pointing errors would slightly bias the 2-\sigma upper limit of the tensor-to-scalar ratio r by ~10%. We also show that the impact of pointing errors on the TB and EB measurements is negligibly small.Comment: 10 pages, 4 figures, accepted for publication in ApJS. Includes improvements in clarity of presentation and Fig.4 added, in response to refere

Systematic Effects in Interferometric Observations of the CMB Polarization

The detection of the primordial $B$-mode spectrum of the polarized cosmic microwave background (CMB) signal may provide a probe of inflation. However, observation of such a faint signal requires excellent control of systematic errors. Interferometry proves to be a promising approach for overcoming such a challenge. In this paper we present a complete simulation pipeline of interferometric observations of CMB polarization, including systematic errors. We employ two different methods for obtaining the power spectra from mock data produced by simulated observations: the maximum likelihood method and the method of Gibbs sampling. We show that the results from both methods are consistent with each other, as well as, within a factor of 6, with analytical estimates. Several categories of systematic errors are considered: instrumental errors, consisting of antenna gain and antenna coupling errors, and beam errors, consisting of antenna pointing errors, beam cross-polarization and beam shape (and size) errors. In order to recover the tensor-to-scalar ratio, $r$, within a 10% tolerance level, which ensures the experiment is sensitive enough to detect the $B$-signal at $r=0.01$ in the multipole range $28 < \ell < 384$, we find that, for a QUBIC-like experiment, Gaussian-distributed systematic errors must be controlled with precisions of $|g_{rms}| = 0.1$ for antenna gain, $|\epsilon_{rms}| = 5 \times 10^{-4}$ for antenna coupling, $\delta_{rms} \approx 0.7^\circ$ for pointing, $\zeta_{rms} \approx 0.7^\circ$ for beam shape, and $\mu_{rms} = 5 \times 10^{-4}$ for beam cross-polarization.Comment: 15 pages, 6 figures, submitted to ApJ

Bayesian Inference of Polarized CMB Power Spectra from Interferometric Data

Detection of B-mode polarization of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) radiation is one of the frontiers of observational cosmology. Because they are an order of magnitude fainter than E-modes, it is quite a challenge to detect B-modes. Having more manageable systematics, interferometers prove to have a substantial advantage over imagers in detecting such faint signals. Here, we present a method for Bayesian inference of power spectra and signal reconstruction from interferometric data of the CMB polarization signal by using the technique of Gibbs sampling. We demonstrate the validity of the method in the flat-sky approximation for a simulation of an interferometric observation on a finite patch with incomplete uv-plane coverage, a finite beam size and a realistic noise model. With a computational complexity of O(n^{3/2}), n being the data size, Gibbs sampling provides an efficient method for analyzing upcoming cosmology observations.Comment: 8 pages, 8 figures, expanded discussion and edited to match ApJS approved version, acknowledgments update

Bayesian semi-blind component separation for foreground removal in interferometric 21-cm observations

We present in this paper a new Bayesian semi-blind approach for foreground removal in observations of the 21-cm signal with interferometers. The technique, which we call HIEMICA (HI Expectation-Maximization Independent Component Analysis), is an extension of the Independent Component Analysis (ICA) technique developed for two-dimensional (2D) CMB maps to three-dimensional (3D) 21-cm cosmological signals measured by interferometers. This technique provides a fully Bayesian inference of power spectra and maps and separates the foregrounds from signal based on the diversity of their power spectra. Only relying on the statistical independence of the components, this approach can jointly estimate the 3D power spectrum of the 21-cm signal and, the 2D angular power spectrum and the frequency dependence of each foreground component, without any prior assumptions about foregrounds. This approach has been tested extensively by applying it to mock data from interferometric 21-cm intensity mapping observations under idealized assumptions of instrumental effects. We also discuss the impact when the noise properties are not known completely. As a first step toward solving the 21 cm power spectrum analysis problem we compare the semi-blind HIEMICA technique with the commonly used Principal Component Analysis (PCA). Under the same idealized circumstances the proposed technique provides significantly improved recovery of the power spectrum. This technique can be applied straightforwardly to all 21-cm interferometric observations, including epoch of reionization measurements, and can be extended to single-dish observations as well.Comment: 18 pages, 7 figures, added some discussions about the impact of noise misspecificatio

Key Dimension 4: Environmental Waste Security

Asia and the Pacific shows a positive trend in strengthening water security with the number of water insecure countries dropping to 29 from 38 in 2013, according to this latest edition of the Asian Water Development Outlook (AWDO). Despite this progress, enormous challenges in water security remain. Asia is home to half of the world’s poorest people. Water for agriculture continues to consume 80% of water resources. A staggering 1.7 billion people lack access to basic sanitation. With a predicted population of 5.2 billion by 2050 and 22 megacities by 2030, the region’s finite water resources will be under enormous pressure—especially with increasing climate variability. Recent estimates indicate up to 3.4 billion people could be living in water-stressed areas of Asia by 2050. With a Sustainable Development Goal dedicated to water and sanitation for all, AWDO 2016 is a tool to help assess the region’s progress in meeting this ambitious target

Metamaterials: optical activity without chirality

We report that the classical phenomenon of optical activity, which is traditionally associated with chirality (helicity) of organic molecules, proteins, and inorganic structures, can be observed in artificial planar media which exhibit neither 3D nor 2D chirality. We observe the effect in the microwave and optical parts of the spectrum at oblique incidence to regular arrays of nonchiral subwavelength metamolecules in the form of strong circular dichroism and birefringence indistinguishable from those of chiral three-dimensional media

Statistical Arbitrage and Information Flow in an Electricity Balancing Market

Motivated by the events following a natural experiment in 2015, when the market rules for electricity spot trading were changed in Britain, we analyse the operational effects of market participants responding to price incentives for spillage and shortage positions in a single price, real-time market. We develop an analytical model for optimal real-time decisions by generators and speculators based upon forecasts of the conditional distribution of the total system imbalance between instantaneous supply and demand. From this, we examine the effects of time delays in information transparency for the consequent statistical arbitrage positions. We backtested this model empirically to the Austrian system imbalance settlements process within the German/Austrian integrated market. Results suggest that permitting additional intraday flexibility from a physical generator or a non-physical trader can be beneficial for the agents themselves, the system operator and market efficiency

Observational constraints on the spectral index of the cosmological curvature perturbation

We evaluate the observational constraints on the spectral index $n$, in the context of the $\Lambda$CDM hypothesis which represents the simplest viable cosmology. We first take $n$ to be practically scale-independent. Ignoring reionization, we find at a nominal 2-$\sigma$ level $n\simeq 1.0 \pm 0.1$. If we make the more realisitic assumption that reionization occurs when a fraction $f\sim 10^{-5}$ to 1 of the matter has collapsed, the 2-$\sigma$ lower bound is unchanged while the 1-$\sigma$ bound rises slightly. These constraints are compared with the prediction of various inflation models. Then we investigate the two-parameter scale-dependent spectral index, predicted by running-mass inflation models, and find that present data allow significant scale-dependence of $n$, which occurs in a physically reasonable regime of parameter space.Comment: ReVTeX, 15 pages, 5 figures and 3 tables, uses epsf.sty Improved treatment of reionization and small bug fixed in the constant n case; more convenient parameterization and better treatment of the n dependence in the CMB anisotropy for the running mass case; conclusions basically unchanged; references adde

Preheating in Supersymmetric Hybrid Inflation

We study preheating in a general class of supersymmetric hybrid inflation model. Supersymmetry leads to only one coupling constant in the potential and thus only one natural frequency of oscillation for the homogeneous fields, whose classical evolution consequently differs from that of a general (non-supersymmetric) hybrid model. We emphasise the importance of mixing effects in these models which can significantly change the rate of production of particles. We perform a general study of the rate of production of the particles associated with the homogeneous fields, and show how preheating is efficient in producing these quanta. Preheating of other particle species will be model dependent, and in order to investigate this we consider a realistic working model of supersymmetric hybrid inflation which solves the strong-CP problem via an approximate Peccei-Quinn symmetry, which was proposed by us previously. We study axion production in this model and show that properly taking into account the mixing between the fields suppresses the axion production, yet enhances the production of other particles. Finally we demonstrate the importance of backreaction effects in this model which have the effect of shutting off axion production, leaving the axion safely within experimental bounds.Comment: 37 pages, Latex, 11 eps figures, 14 ps (colour) figure