Performance of the ARPA-SMR limited-area ensemble prediction system: two flood cases

The performance of the ARPA-SMR Limited-area Ensemble Prediction System (LEPS), generated by nesting a limited-area model on selected members of the ECMWF targeted ensemble, is evaluated for two flood events that occurred during September 1992. The predictability of the events is studied for forecast times ranging from 2 to 4 days. The extent to which floods localised in time and space can be forecast at high resolution in probabilistic terms was investigated. Rainfall probability maps generated by both LEPS and ECMWF targeted ensembles are compared for different precipitation thresholds in order to assess the impact of enhanced resolution. At all considered forecast ranges, LEPS performs better, providing a more accurate description of the event with respect to the spatio-temporal location, as well as its intensity. In both flood cases, LEPS probability maps turn out to be a very valuable tool to assist forecasters to issue flood alerts at different forecast ranges. It is also shown that at the shortest forecast range, the deterministic prediction provided by the limited area model, when run in a higher-resolution configuration, provides a very accurate rainfall pattern and a good quantitative estimate of the total rainfall deployed in the flooded regions

The Soverato flood in Southern Italy: performance of global and limited-area ensemble forecasts

The predictability of the flood event affecting Soverato (Southern Italy) in September 2000 is investigated by considering three different configurations of ECMWF ensemble: the operational Ensemble Prediction System (EPS), the targeted EPS and a high-resolution version of EPS. For each configuration, three successive runs of ECMWF ensemble with the same verification time are grouped together so as to generate a highly-populated "super-ensemble". Then, five members are selected from the super-ensemble and used to provide initial and boundary conditions for the integrations with a limited-area model, whose runs generate a Limited-area Ensemble Prediction System (LEPS). The relative impact of targeting the initial perturbations against increasing the horizontal resolution is assessed for the global ensembles as well as for the properties transferred to LEPS integrations, the attention being focussed on the probabilistic prediction of rainfall over a localised area. At the 108, 84 and 60- hour forecast ranges, the overall performance of the global ensembles is not particularly accurate and the best results are obtained by the high-resolution version of EPS. The LEPS performance is very satisfactory in all configurations and the rainfall maps show probability peaks in the correct regions. LEPS products would have been of great assistance to issue flood risk alerts on the basis of limited-area ensemble forecasts. For the 60-hour forecast range, the sensitivity of the results to the LEPS ensemble size is discussed by comparing a 5-member against a 51-member LEPS, where the limited-area model is nested on all EPS members. Little sensitivity is found as concerns the detection of the regions most likely affected by heavy precipitation, the probability peaks being approximately the same in both configurations

Mental disorders and work integration: a retrospective study in a northern italian town.

OBJECTIVES: THE PRESENT STUDY WAS CONDUCTED IN A VOCATIONAL INTEGRATION SERVICE OF A NORTHERN ITALIAN TOWN WITH TWO MAJOR AIMS: to assess vocational integration programs undertaken from 1(st) January 2004 to 1(st) January 2007; and to identify job tenure-associated predictors. METHODS: This is a retrospective study; we collected data such as gender, age, duration, type and outcome of the vocational integration program, and number of interventions performed by the vocational integration service. Self-report questionnaires were also used to assess the satisfaction of users, caregivers, practitioners, and of the company contacts involved in the study. RESULTS: The service has enrolled 84 users during the observation period. Out of these users, 64.3% of them still had their jobs after three years. Users, caregivers and company contacts expressed high levels of satisfaction for the support received by the vocational integration service. The company expressed less satisfaction for the collaboration received by the Departments of Mental Health (DMHs) that coached the users. The only variable associated to the outcome was the number of interventions that the users received before their placement on the job. CONCLUSIONS: Despite all the limits of this study, its results show that the chance of taking advantage of a supported job placement service has likely proven itself effective in helping people with mental disorders to obtain and maintain a competitive employment. Our results, however, also point to the necessity of implementing newer strategies meant to develop a greater integration among all services dealing with mentally ill people

Atmospheric predictability revisited

This article examines the potential to improve numerical weather prediction (NWP) by estimating upper and lower bounds on predictability by re-visiting the original study of Lorenz (1982) but applied to the most recent version of the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) forecast system, for both the deterministic and ensemble prediction systems (EPS). These bounds are contrasted with an older version of the same NWP system to see how they have changed with improvements to the NWP system. The computations were performed for the earlier seasons of DJF 1985/1986 and JJA 1986 and the later seasons of DJF 2010/2011 and JJA 2011 using the 500-hPa geopotential height field. Results indicate that for this field, we may be approaching the limit of deterministic forecasting so that further improvements might only be obtained by improving the initial state. The results also show that predictability calculations with earlier versions of the model may overestimate potential forecast skill, which may be due to insufficient internal variability in the model and because recent versions of the model are more realistic in representing the true atmospheric evolution. The same methodology is applied to the EPS to calculate upper and lower bounds of predictability of the ensemble mean forecast in order to explore how ensemble forecasting could extend the limits of the deterministic forecast. The results show that there is a large potential to improve the ensemble predictions, but for the increased predictability of the ensemble mean, there will be a trade-off in information as the forecasts will become increasingly smoothed with time. From around the 10-d forecast time, the ensemble mean begins to converge towards climatology. Until this point, the ensemble mean is able to predict the main features of the large-scale flow accurately and with high consistency from one forecast cycle to the next. By the 15-d forecast time, the ensemble mean has lost information with the anomaly of the flow strongly smoothed out. In contrast, the control forecast is much less consistent from run to run, but provides more detailed (unsmoothed) but less useful information

Conformational altered p53 affects neuronal function: relevance for the response to toxic insult and growth-associated protein 43 expression

The role of p53 in neurodegenerative diseases is essentially associated with neuronal death. Recently an alternative point of view is emerging, as altered p53 conformation and impaired protein function have been found in fibroblasts and blood cells derived from Alzheimer's disease patients. Here, using stable transfected SH-SY5Y cells overexpressing APP751wt (SY5Y-APP) we demonstrated that the expression of an unfolded p53 conformation compromised neuronal functionality. In particular, these cells showed (i) augmented expression of amyloid precursor protein (APP) and its metabolites, including the C-terminal fragments C99 and C83 and β-amyloid peptide (ii) high levels of oxidative markers, such as 4-hydroxy-2-nonenal Michael-adducts and 3-nitro-tyrosine and (iii) altered p53 conformation, mainly due to nitration of its tyrosine residues. The consequences of high-unfolded p53 expression resulted in loss of p53 pro-apoptotic activity, and reduction of growth-associated protein 43 (GAP-43) mRNA and protein levels. The role of unfolded p53 in cell death resistance and lack of GAP-43 transcription was demonstrated by ZnCl(2) treatment. Zinc supplementation reverted p53 wild-type tertiary structure, increased cells sensitivity to acute cytotoxic injury and GAP-43 levels in SY5Y-APP clone

Theory and computation of covariant Lyapunov vectors

Lyapunov exponents are well-known characteristic numbers that describe growth rates of perturbations applied to a trajectory of a dynamical system in different state space directions. Covariant (or characteristic) Lyapunov vectors indicate these directions. Though the concept of these vectors has been known for a long time, they became practically computable only recently due to algorithms suggested by Ginelli et al. [Phys. Rev. Lett. 99, 2007, 130601] and by Wolfe and Samelson [Tellus 59A, 2007, 355]. In view of the great interest in covariant Lyapunov vectors and their wide range of potential applications, in this article we summarize the available information related to Lyapunov vectors and provide a detailed explanation of both the theoretical basics and numerical algorithms. We introduce the notion of adjoint covariant Lyapunov vectors. The angles between these vectors and the original covariant vectors are norm-independent and can be considered as characteristic numbers. Moreover, we present and study in detail an improved approach for computing covariant Lyapunov vectors. Also we describe, how one can test for hyperbolicity of chaotic dynamics without explicitly computing covariant vectors.Comment: 21 pages, 5 figure

Is psychiatric residential facility discharge possible and predictable? A multivariate analytical approach applied to a prospective study in Italy

A growing number of severely ill patients require long-term care in non-hospital residential facilities (RFs). Despite the magnitude of this development, longitudinal studies surveying fairly large resident samples and yielding important information on this population have been very few

Ejaculation-sparing thulium laser enucleation of the prostate (ES-ThuLEP): outcomes on a large cohort

Purpose: To assess the effects of a new ejaculation-sparing thulium laser enucleation of the prostate (ES-ThuLEP) technique on sexual functions and micturition, in patients with lower urinary tract symptoms secondary to benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH) and to evaluate how the surgical technique of ES-ThuLEP can lead to ejaculation preservation. Methods: A prospective study was carried out between January 2015 and January 2018 on patients with surgical indication for BPH, who wished to preserve ejaculation. The patients were treated with ES-ThuLEP and were evaluated before and 3 and 6 months after surgery. Three validated questionnaires (ICIQ-MLUTSsex, IIEF-5 and IPSS) were used to assess changes in ejaculation, erectile function and urinary symptoms. Uroflowmetry (Qmax and Qavg), post-void residual volume and voided volume were also evaluated, to assess micturition improvement. Patients with moderate to severe erectile dysfunction were excluded. Statistical analysis was performed with the Student\u2019s t test, Chi-square test and logistic regression analysis. Results: Two hundred and eighty three patients were enrolled. Ejaculation was spared in 203 and 219 patients at 3 and 6 months after surgery. No significant differences were observed between erectile function before and after surgery: baseline IIEF-5 = 16.2 \ub1 4.47 vs 16.7 \ub1 2.9 (p = 0.419) and 17.7 \ub1 3.2 (p = 0.410) at 3 and 6 months. Significant improvement in urinary symptoms was achieved: baseline IPSS = 19.4 \ub1 7.24 vs 5.8 \ub1 4.3 (p = 0.032) and 3.9 \ub1 4.1 (p = 0.029) at 3 and 6 months. Conclusion: ES-ThuLEP effectively preserved ejaculation in over two thirds of the patients without compromising micturition improvement or erectile function. ES-ThuLEP could be a valid treatment option for BPH in young and sexually active men