A mechanism for Pacific interdecadal resonances

Pacific interdecadal variability (PIV) is an important large‐scale climate phenomenon. There is growing evidence that PIV contains three spectral resonances: a decadal (13 ± 1‐year) spectral peak, bidecadal (20 ± 5‐year) resonance, and a pentadecadal (60 ± 10‐year) resonance. Although much has been clarified about mechanisms behind PIV, there are still many open questions about the origin of these resonant modes (especially the pentadecadal mode). We describe dynamics in the Pacific basin by a toy (delayed oscillator) model that sheds light on the nature of these resonant peaks. The model suggests that unlike the bidecadal resonance, which results from local atmosphere‐ocean coupling in the extratropics, the pentadecadal and possibly also decadal resonances result from atmospheric and oceanic teleconnections between the extratropics and tropics. We show that a tiny coupling between extratropics and tropics through the ocean tunnel is sufficient to trigger the pentadecadal oscillation in the Pacific basin. Our model also explains (a) the observed three‐period locking between the bidecadal and pentadecadal modes and (b) the synchronization of anomalies in the central eastern tropics and central North Pacific with the opposite relative sign. We conclude that the role of oceanic teleconnections is probably underestimated in the current literature on PIV

Heartbeat of the Southern Oscillation explains ENSO climatic resonances

This is the final version. Available from the publisher via the DOI in this record.The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) nonlinear oscillator phenomenon has a far reaching ~ influence on the climate and human activities. The up to 10 year quasi-period cycle of the El Nino and ~ subsequent La Nina is known to be dominated in the tropics by nonlinear physical interaction of wind with ~ the equatorial waveguide in the Pacific. Long-term cyclic phenomena do not feature in the current theory of the ENSO process. We update the theory by assessing low (>10 years) and high (<10 years) frequency coupling using evidence across tropical, extratropical, and Pacific basin scales. We analyze observations and model simulations with a highly accurate method called Dominant Frequency State Analysis (DFSA) to provide evidence of stable ENSO features. The observational data sets of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), North Pacific Index Anomaly, and ENSO Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly, as well as a theoretical model all confirm the existence of long-term and short-term climatic cycles of the ENSO process with resonance frequencies of {2.5, 3.8, 5, 12–14, 61–75, 180} years. This fundamental result shows long-term and short-term signal coupling with mode locking across the dominant ENSO dynamics. These dominant oscillation frequency dynamics, defined as ENSO frequency states, contain a stable attractor with three frequencies in resonance allowing us to coin the term Heartbeat of the Southern Oscillation due to its characteristic shape. We predict future ENSO states based on a stable hysteresis scenario of short-term and long-term ENSO oscillations over the next century.Natural Environment Research Council (NERC)Plymouth Marine Laboratory (PML

A re-evaluation of the Earth’s surface temperature response to radiative forcing

This is the final version. Available on open access from IOP Publishing via the DOI in this recordData availability statement: All the time-series data used in this analysis is freely available for research: http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/temp/jonescru/jones.html; www.pik-potsdam.de/~mmalte/rcps/; www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/catalog/climind/AMO.html. The models in this paper have been inferred statistically from the data record available when the present study was initiated and they can change over time. The data that support the findings of this study are available upon reasonable request from the authorsThere is much current debate about the way in which the earth's climate and temperature are responding to anthropogenic and natural forcing. In this paper we re-assess the current evidence at the globally averaged level by adopting a generic 'data-based mechanistic' modelling strategy that incorporates statistically efficient parameter estimation. This identifies a low order, differential equation model that explains how the global average surface temperature variation responds to the influences of total radiative forcing (TRF). The model response includes a novel, stochastic oscillatory component with a period of about 55 years (range 51.6–60 years) that appears to be associated with heat energy interchange between the atmosphere and the ocean. These 'quasi-cycle' oscillations, which account for the observed pauses in global temperature increase around 1880, 1940 and 2001, appear to be related to ocean dynamic responses, particularly the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation. The model explains 90% of the variance in the global average surface temperature anomaly and yields estimates of the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) (2.29 compfnC with 5%–95% range 2.11 compfnC to 2.49 compfnC) and the transient climate response (TCR) (1.56 compfnC with 5%–95% range 1.43 compfnC to 1.68 compfnC), both of which are smaller than most previous estimates. When a high level of uncertainty in the TRF is taken into account, the ECS and TCR estimates are unchanged but the ranges are increased to 1.43 compfnC to 3.14 compfnC and 0.99 compfnC to 2.16 compfnC, respectively.Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC)Natural Environment Research Council (NERC)Newton Funded China Services Partnership (CSSP

Ocean net heat flux influences seasonal to interannual patterns of plankton abundance

This is the final version. Available from the publisher via the DOI in this record.Changes in the net heat flux (NHF) into the ocean have profound impacts on global climate. We analyse a long-term plankton time-series and show that the NHF is a critical indicator of ecosystem dynamics. We show that phytoplankton abundance and diversity patterns are tightly bounded by the switches between negative and positive NHF over an annual cycle. Zooplankton increase before the transition to positive NHF in the spring but are constrained by the negative NHF switch in autumn. By contrast bacterial diversity is decoupled from either NHF switch, but is inversely correlated (r = 20.920) with the magnitude of the NHF. We show that the NHF is a robust mechanistic tool for predicting climate change indicators such as spring phytoplankton bloom timing and length of the growing season.Natural Environment Research Council (NERC)European Union: 7th Framework ProgrammeINTERREG IV

Observation of pseudogap behavior in a strongly interacting Fermi gas

Ultracold atomic Fermi gases present an opportunity to study strongly interacting Fermi systems in a controlled and uncomplicated setting. The ability to tune attractive interactions has led to the discovery of superfluidity in these systems with an extremely high transition temperature, near T/T_F = 0.2. This superfluidity is the electrically neutral analog of superconductivity; however, superfluidity in atomic Fermi gases occurs in the limit of strong interactions and defies a conventional BCS description. For these strong interactions, it is predicted that the onset of pairing and superfluidity can occur at different temperatures. This gives rise to a pseudogap region where, for a range of temperatures, the system retains some of the characteristics of the superfluid phase, such as a BCS-like dispersion and a partially gapped density of states, but does not exhibit superfluidity. By making two independent measurements: the direct observation of pair condensation in momentum space and a measurement of the single-particle spectral function using an analog to photoemission spectroscopy, we directly probe the pseudogap phase. Our measurements reveal a BCS-like dispersion with back-bending near the Fermi wave vector k_F that persists well above the transition temperature for pair condensation

Ocean Net Heat Flux Influences Seasonal to Interannual Patterns of Plankton Abundance

Changes in the net heat flux (NHF) into the ocean have profound impacts on global climate. We analyse a long-term plankton time-series and show that the NHF is a critical indicator of ecosystem dynamics. We show that phytoplankton abundance and diversity patterns are tightly bounded by the switches between negative and positive NHF over an annual cycle. Zooplankton increase before the transition to positive NHF in the spring but are constrained by the negative NHF switch in autumn. By contrast bacterial diversity is decoupled from either NHF switch, but is inversely correlated (r=-0.920) with the magnitude of the NHF. We show that the NHF is a robust mechanistic tool for predicting climate change indicators such as spring phytoplankton bloom timing and length of the growing season

Oceanic biogeochemical characteristic maps identified with holistic use of satellite, model and data

This is the final published version.Ocean province level plankton community exhibit heterogeneity across Arctic, Nordic, Atlantic Gyre and Southern Ocean provinces. GreenSeas research is an international FP7 consortium that includes Arctic, Atlantic and Southern Ocean based research teams who are analysing the planktonic ecosystem. We are looking at how the planktonic ecosystem responds to environmental and climate change. Using Earth Observation monitoring data we report new results on identifying generic plankton characteristics observable at a province level, and also touch on spatial and temporal trends that are evident using a holistic analysis framework. Using advanced statistical methods this framework compares and combines Earth Observation information together with an in-situ Oceanic plankton Analytical Database and up to 40 year ocean general circulation biogeochemical model (OGCBM) time series of the equivalent plankton and sea-state measures of this system. Specifically, we outline the use of the GreenSeas Analytical Database, which is a harmonised set of Oceanic in-situ plankton and sea-state measures covering different cruises and time periods. The Analytical Database information ranges from plankton community, primary production, nutrient cycling to physical sea state temperature and salinity measures. The combined analysis utilises current, 10 year+ Earth Observations of ocean colour and sea surface temperature metrics and interprets these together with biogeochemical model outputs from PELAGOS, ERSEM & NORWECOM model runs to help identify planktonic based biomes. Generic planktonic characteristic maps that are equivalently observable in both the Earth Observations and numerical models are reported on. Both ocean surface and sub-surface signals are analysed together with relevant Analytical Database biome extracts. We present the current results of this inter-comparison & discuss challenges of identifying the province level plankton dominance with the satellite, model and data. In particular we discuss the strategic importance of systematically analysing the knowledge present in the existing key long term Oceanic observation platforms through such holistic analysis frameworks. These maps help to enhance and improve current biogeochemical models, our understanding of the plankton community structure and predictions used for future assessment of climate change

Evaluating interdisciplinary research : The elephant in the peer-reviewers’ room

We review a selection of published reports on the evaluation and wider peer-review of interdisciplinary research (IDR), drawing on an in-depth examination of a range of interdisciplinary projects and the work of a UK-based working group of funders and researchers. Our aim is to elucidate best practice. We focus the study on integrative, interdisciplinary projects, rather than those at the level of “multidisciplinary dialogue”. Five areas of evaluation (publishing, research grants, careers, IDR centres, institutions) demonstrate both commonality and difference in the task of measuring added value in IDR collaborations. We find that, although single-discipline peer review processes are poorly suited to address IDR, a framework that starts with the assumption that IDR is a fundamental academic research practice is effective for single-discipline evaluation as well. This article is published as part of a collection on interdisciplinarity

Methods to identify, study and understand End-user participation in HIT development

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Experience has shown that for new health-information-technology (HIT) to be suc-cessful clinicians must obtain <it>positive clinical benefits </it>as a result of its implementation and <it>joint-ownership </it>of the decisions made during the development process. A prerequisite for achieving both success criteria is <it>real </it>end-user-participation. Experience has also shown that further research into developing improved methods to collect more detailed information on social groups participating in HIT development is needed in order to support, facilitate and improve real end-user participation.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A case study of an EHR planning-process in a Danish county from October 2003 until April 2006 was conducted using process-analysis. Three social groups (physicians, IT-professionals and administrators) were identified and studied in the <it>local, present </it>perspective. In order to understand the interactions between the three groups, the <it>national, historic </it>perspective was included through a literature-study. Data were collected through observations, interviews, insight gathered from documents and relevant literature.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In the local, present perspective, the administrator's strategy for the EHR planning process meant that there was no clinical workload-reduction. This was seen as one of the main barriers to the physicians to achieving real influence. In the national, historic perspective, physicians and administrators have had/have different perceptions of the purpose of the patient record and they have both struggled to influence this definition. To date, the administrators have won the battle. This explains the conditions made available for the physicians' participation in this case, which led to their role being reduced to that of clinical consultants - rather than real participants.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>In HIT-development the interests of and the balance of power between the different social groups involved are decisive in determining whether or not the end-users become real participants in the development process. Real end-user-participation is essential for the successful outcome of the process. By combining and developing existing theories and methods, this paper presents an improved method to collect more detailed information on social groups participating in HIT-development and their interaction during the development. This allows HIT management to explore new avenues during the HIT development process in order to support, facilitate and improve real end-user participation.</p

Metastability and Coherence of Repulsive Polarons in a Strongly Interacting Fermi Mixture

Ultracold Fermi gases with tuneable interactions represent a unique test bed to explore the many-body physics of strongly interacting quantum systems. In the past decade, experiments have investigated a wealth of intriguing phenomena, and precise measurements of ground-state properties have provided exquisite benchmarks for the development of elaborate theoretical descriptions. Metastable states in Fermi gases with strong repulsive interactions represent an exciting new frontier in the field. The realization of such systems constitutes a major challenge since a strong repulsive interaction in an atomic quantum gas implies the existence of a weakly bound molecular state, which makes the system intrinsically unstable against decay. Here, we exploit radio-frequency spectroscopy to measure the complete excitation spectrum of fermionic 40K impurities resonantly interacting with a Fermi sea of 6Li atoms. In particular, we show that a well-defined quasiparticle exists for strongly repulsive interactions. For this "repulsive polaron" we measure its energy and its lifetime against decay. We also probe its coherence properties by measuring the quasiparticle residue. The results are well described by a theoretical approach that takes into account the finite effective range of the interaction in our system. We find that a non-zero range of the order of the interparticle spacing results in a substantial lifetime increase. This major benefit for the stability of the repulsive branch opens up new perspectives for investigating novel phenomena in metastable, repulsively interacting fermion systems.Comment: 11 pages, 9 figure