Rentabilitätsvergleiche im Umlage- und Kapitaldeckungsverfahren : Konzepte, empirische Ergebnisse, sozialpolitische Konsequenzen

Die demographischen Veränderungen sind Auslöser einer grundsätzlicheren Debatte über Alterssicherungsverfahren, nämlich der Wahl eines effizienten Finanzierungsverfahrens der Altersvorsorge. Im Zentrum der Debatte steht immer wieder der Renditevergleich zwischen dem Umlage- und dem Kapitaldeckungsverfahren. Ihm gilt dieses Papier. Er ist keineswegs so einfach, wie es oft suggeriert wird, da Versicherungs- und Risikoaspekte, vor allem aber das Übergangsproblem berücksichtigt werden müssen. Der vorliegende Beitrag stellt den wirtschaftstheoretischen Hintergrund mit den wichtigsten relevanten Konzepten dar und präsentiert empirische Schätzungen zur heutigen und Simulationsergebnisse zur zukünftigen Entwicklung der relevanten Renditen. Wir schließen mit den sozialpolitischen Konsequenzen für eine reformierte Altersvorsorge

Polymorphisms in the WNK1 gene are asociated with blood pressure variation and urinary potassium excretion

WNK1 - a serine/threonine kinase involved in electrolyte homeostasis and blood pressure (BP) control - is an excellent candidate gene for essential hypertension (EH). We and others have previously reported association between WNK1 and BP variation. Using tag SNPs (tSNPs) that capture 100% of common WNK1 variation in HapMap, we aimed to replicate our findings with BP and to test for association with phenotypes relating to WNK1 function in the British Genetics of Hypertension (BRIGHT) study case-control resource (1700 hypertensive cases and 1700 normotensive controls). We found multiple variants to be associated with systolic blood pressure, SBP (7/28 tSNPs min-p = 0.0005), diastolic blood pressure, DBP (7/28 tSNPs min-p = 0.002) and 24 hour urinary potassium excretion (10/28 tSNPs min-p = 0.0004). Associations with SBP and urine potassium remained significant after correction for multiple testing (p = 0.02 and p = 0.01 respectively). The major allele (A) of rs765250, located in intron 1, demonstrated the strongest evidence for association with SBP, effect size 3.14 mmHg (95%CI:1.23–4.9), DBP 1.9 mmHg (95%CI:0.7–3.2) and hypertension, odds ratio (OR: 1.3 [95%CI: 1.0–1.7]).We genotyped this variant in six independent populations (n = 14,451) and replicated the association between rs765250 and SBP in a meta-analysis (p = 7×10−3, combined with BRIGHT data-set p = 2×10−4, n = 17,851). The associations of WNK1 with DBP and EH were not confirmed. Haplotype analysis revealed striking associations with hypertension and BP variation (global permutation p10 mmHg reduction) and risk for hypertension (OR<0.60). Our data indicates that multiple rare and common WNK1 variants contribute to BP variation and hypertension, and provide compelling evidence to initiate further genetic and functional studies to explore the role of WNK1 in BP regulation and EH

Survival in dialysis patients is not different between patients with diabetes as primary renal disease and patients with diabetes as a co-morbid condition

On dialysis, survival among patients with diabetes mellitus is inferior to survival of non-diabetic patients. We hypothesized that patients with diabetes as primary renal disease have worse survival compared to patients with diabetes as a co-morbid condition and aimed to compare all-cause mortality between these patient groups. Data were collected from the Netherlands Cooperative Study on the Adequacy of Dialysis (NECOSAD), a multicenter, prospective cohort study in which new patients with end stage renal disease (ESRD) were monitored until transplantation or death. Patients with diabetes as primary cause of ESRD were compared with patients with diabetes as co-morbid condition and both of these patient groups were compared to patients without diabetes. Analysis was performed using Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression. Fifteen % of the patients had diabetic nephropathy as primary renal disease (N = 281); 6% had diabetes as co-morbid condition (N = 107) and 79% had no diabetes (N = 1465). During follow-up 42% of patients (N = 787) died. Compared to non-diabetic patients, mortality risk was increased for both patients with diabetes as primary renal disease HR: 1.9 (95% CI 1.6, 2.3) and for patients with diabetes as co-morbid condition HR: 1.7 (95% CI 1.3, 2.2). Mortality was not significantly higher in patients with diabetes as primary renal disease compared to patients with diabetes as co-morbid condition (HR 1.06; 95% CI 0.79, 1.43). This study in patients with ESRD showed no survival difference between patients with diabetes as primary renal disease and patients with diabetes as a co-morbid condition. Both conditions were associated with increased mortality risk compared to non-diabetic patient

Reliability of clinical tests to evaluate nerve function and mechanosensitivity of the upper limb peripheral nervous system

BACKGROUND: Clinical tests to assess peripheral nerve disorders can be classified into two categories: tests for afferent/efferent nerve function such as nerve conduction (bedside neurological examination) and tests for increased mechanosensitivity (e.g. upper limb neurodynamic tests (ULNTs) and nerve palpation). Reliability reports of nerve palpation and the interpretation of neurodynamic tests are scarce. This study therefore investigated the intertester reliability of nerve palpation and ULNTs. ULNTs were interpreted based on symptom reproduction and structural differentiation. To put the reliability of these tests in perspective, a comparison with the reliability of clinical tests for nerve function was made. METHODS: Two experienced clinicians examined 31 patients with unilateral arm and/or neck pain. The examination included clinical tests for nerve function (sensory testing, reflexes and manual muscle testing (MMT)) and mechanosensitivity (ULNTs and palpation of the median, radial and ulnar nerve). Kappa statistics were calculated to evaluate intertester reliability. A meta-analysis determined an overall kappa for the domains with multiple kappa values (MMT, ULNT, palpation). We then compared the difference in reliability between the tests of mechanosensitivity and nerve function using a one-sample t-test. RESULTS: We observed moderate to substantial reliability for the tests for afferent/efferent nerve function (sensory testing: kappa = 0.53; MMT: kappa = 0.68; no kappa was calculated for reflexes due to a lack of variation). Tests to investigate mechanosensitivity demonstrated moderate reliability (ULNT: kappa = 0.45; palpation: kappa = 0.59). When compared statistically, there was no difference in reliability for tests for nerve function and mechanosensitivity (p = 0.06). CONCLUSION: This study demonstrates that clinical tests which evaluate increased nerve mechanosensitivity and afferent/efferent nerve function have comparable moderate to substantial reliability. To further investigate the clinometric properties of these tests, more studies are needed to evaluate their validity

Promoting advance planning for health care and research among older adults: A randomized controlled trial

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Family members are often required to act as substitute decision-makers when health care or research participation decisions must be made for an incapacitated relative. Yet most families are unable to accurately predict older adult preferences regarding future health care and willingness to engage in research studies. Discussion and documentation of preferences could improve proxies' abilities to decide for their loved ones. This trial assesses the efficacy of an advance planning intervention in improving the accuracy of substitute decision-making and increasing the frequency of documented preferences for health care and research. It also investigates the financial impact on the healthcare system of improving substitute decision-making.</p> <p>Methods/Design</p> <p>Dyads (<it>n </it>= 240) comprising an older adult and his/her self-selected proxy are randomly allocated to the experimental or control group, after stratification for type of designated proxy and self-report of prior documentation of healthcare preferences. At baseline, clinical and research vignettes are used to elicit older adult preferences and assess the ability of their proxy to predict those preferences. Responses are elicited under four health states, ranging from the subject's current health state to severe dementia. For each state, we estimated the public costs of the healthcare services that would typically be provided to a patient under these scenarios. Experimental dyads are visited at home, twice, by a specially trained facilitator who communicates the dyad-specific results of the concordance assessment, helps older adults convey their wishes to their proxies, and offers assistance in completing a guide entitled <it>My Preferences </it>that we designed specifically for that purpose. In between these meetings, experimental dyads attend a group information session about <it>My Preferences</it>. Control dyads attend three monthly workshops aimed at promoting healthy behaviors. Concordance assessments are repeated at the end of the intervention and 6 months later to assess improvement in predictive accuracy and cost savings, if any. Copies of completed guides are made at the time of these assessments.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>This study will determine whether the tested intervention guides proxies in making decisions that concur with those of older adults, motivates the latter to record their wishes in writing, and yields savings for the healthcare system.</p> <p>Trial Registration</p> <p><a href="http://www.controlled-trials.com/ISRCTN89993391">ISRCTN89993391</a></p

High Risks of Losing Genetic Diversity in an Endemic Mauritian Gecko: Implications for Conservation

Genetic structure can be a consequence of recent population fragmentation and isolation, or a remnant of historical localised adaptation. This poses a challenge for conservationists since misinterpreting patterns of genetic structure may lead to inappropriate management. Of 17 species of reptile originally found in Mauritius, only five survive on the main island. One of these, Phelsuma guimbeaui (lowland forest day gecko), is now restricted to 30 small isolated subpopulations following severe forest fragmentation and isolation due to human colonisation. We used 20 microsatellites in ten subpopulations and two mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) markers in 13 subpopulations to: (i) assess genetic diversity, population structure and genetic differentiation of subpopulations; (ii) estimate effective population sizes and migration rates of subpopulations; and (iii) examine the phylogenetic relationships of haplotypes found in different subpopulations. Microsatellite data revealed significant population structure with high levels of genetic diversity and isolation by distance, substantial genetic differentiation and no migration between most subpopulations. MtDNA, however, showed no evidence of population structure, indicating that there was once a genetically panmictic population. Effective population sizes of ten subpopulations, based on microsatellite markers, were small, ranging from 44 to 167. Simulations suggested that the chance of survival and allelic diversity of some subpopulations will decrease dramatically over the next 50 years if no migration occurs. Our DNA-based evidence reveals an urgent need for a management plan for the conservation of P. guimbeaui. We identified 18 threatened and 12 viable subpopulations and discuss a range of management options that include translocation of threatened subpopulations to retain maximum allelic diversity, and habitat restoration and assisted migration to decrease genetic erosion and inbreeding for the viable subpopulations

Prediction of disability-free survival in healthy older people

Prolonging survival in good health is a fundamental societal goal. However, the leading determinants of disability-free survival in healthy older people have not been well established. Data from ASPREE, a bi-national placebo-controlled trial of aspirin with 4.7 years median follow-up, was analysed. At enrolment, participants were healthy and without prior cardiovascular events, dementia or persistent physical disability. Disability-free survival outcome was defined as absence of dementia, persistent disability or death. Selection of potential predictors from amongst 25 biomedical, psychosocial and lifestyle variables including recognized geriatric risk factors, utilizing a machine-learning approach. Separate models were developed for men and women. The selected predictors were evaluated in a multivariable Cox proportional hazards model and validated internally by bootstrapping. We included 19,114 Australian and US participants aged ≥65 years (median 74 years, IQR 71.6–77.7). Common predictors of a worse prognosis in both sexes included higher age, lower Modified Mini-Mental State Examination score, lower gait speed, lower grip strength and abnormal (low or elevated) body mass index. Additional risk factors for men included current smoking, and abnormal eGFR. In women, diabetes and depression were additional predictors. The biased-corrected areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves for the final prognostic models at 5 years were 0.72 for men and 0.75 for women. Final models showed good calibration between the observed and predicted risks. We developed a prediction model in which age, cognitive function and gait speed were the strongest predictors of disability-free survival in healthy older people. Trial registration Clinicaltrials.gov (NCT01038583