Forecasting Inflation using Economic Indicators: the Case of France

In order to provide short run forecasts of headline and core HICP inflation for France, we assess the forecasting performance of a large set of economic indicators, individually and jointly, as well as using dynamic factor models. We run out-of-sample forecasts implementing the Stock and Watson (1999) methodology. It turns out that, according to usual statistical criteria, the combination of several indicators -in particular those derived from surveys- provides better results than dynamic factor models, even after pre-selection of the variables included in the panel. However, factors included in VAR models exhibit more stable forecasting performance over time. Results for HICP excluding unprocessed food and energy are very encouraging. Moreover, we show that it is possible to use forecasts on this indicator to project overall inflation.Inflation ; Out-of-sample forecast ; Indicator models ; Dynamic factor models ; Phillips curve.

Floral ontogeny in Dialiinae (Caesalpinioideae: Cassieae), a study in organ loss and instability

AbstractThe Caesalpinioideae are widely variable in their floral ontogeny, and among caesalpinioids, members of the polyphyletic tribe Cassieae are particularly diverse. Within the Cassieae, the monophyletic Dialiinae clade is also marked by a high degree of organ loss, particularly in the largest genus, Dialium. The purpose of this work is to explore the ontogeny of several previously undocumented species of the diverse Dialiinae clade, with the goal of building a more complete picture of floral development and evolution in this group and especially within Dialium. We have documented the floral ontogeny of six species of the Dialiinae; four from Dialium, as well as Poeppigia procera and Mendoravia dumaziana. Mode and timing of organ initiation were mostly consistent across the Dialium species studied. With the exception of Dialium dinklagei, which undergoes helical calyx initiation, all flowers initiated sepals bidirectionally. In the instances of both gains and losses of floral organs in Dialium, one trend is apparent — an absence of abaxial organs. Gains in both sepals and stamens occur in the adaxial median position, while stamens and petals which are lost are always the ventral-most organs. Organ initiation in Poeppigia and Mendoravia is unlike that seen in Dialium. Poeppigia shows a ventral to dorsal unidirectional sepal initiation, while both Poeppigia and Mendoravia display near-synchronous initiation of the corolla and staminal whorls. The taxa examined here exemplify the apparent lack of developmental canalisation seen in caesalpinioid legumes. This ontogenetic plasticity is reflective of the morphological diversity shown by flowers across the subfamily, representing what has been described as an “experimental” phase in legume floral evolution

The development and evaluation of the cardiovascular assessment screening program

BACKGROUND: An exploratory mixed methods study, with the philosophical basis of pragmatism and interpretive description, was used to develop, implement, and evaluate an intervention called the Cardiovascular Assessment Screening Program (CASP) to address the underutilization of clinical practice guidelines for cardiovascular screening. The Knowledge-to-Action (KTA) Framework with guideline adaptation was used to guide the study. METHODS: In phase 1, the qualitative study, ten interviews and five focus groups were conducted with healthcare providers (HCPs), managers, and the public to gain different perspectives to inform the development of CASP. In phase 2, the quantitative study, CASP was tested in a randomized controlled trial (RCT) with eight nurse practitioners (NPs) and 167 patients aged 40-74 years without previously diagnosed cardiovascular disease (CVD). The intervention group implemented CASP while the control group provided usual care. Phase 3 integration examined the results from phases 1 and 2. RESULTS: From the focus groups and interviews conducted in the qualitative phase, themes emerged related to the barriers to, facilitators of, and strategies for CVD screening in the local context. The Theoretical Domains Framework (TDF) was applied to the themes to identify relevant behaviour change techniques and modes of delivery, from which specific intervention components for CASP were developed. Findings from Phase 2, the RCT, showed a statistically and clinically significant difference between the NP intervention group compared to the control group in terms of comprehensiveness of screening, RR = 43.9, 95% CI [13.4, 144.2], p < .0001. The NPs in the intervention group were able to identify multiple risk factors; determine their patients’ level of CVD risk; identify NPs’ and patients’ priorities for action; and encourage individualized goal-setting with patients for heart health. In Phase 3, the integration of results from phases 1 and 2 confirmed and refined strategies for knowledge translation. The mixed methods study results are reported in Manuscript 1, while Manuscript 2 focuses primarily on Phase 2, the results from the RCT. Manuscript 3 discusses strategies to address recruitment issues of HCPs such as nurses and NPs, as participants in research studies. CONCLUSION: CASP was effective and can be used by HCPs and patients for CVD screening and management utilizing current guidelines to identify risk factors and promote relevant actions to reduce CVD risk and promote healthy aging

Influence of Aerobic Exercise on Ghrelin-o-Acyltransferase in Normal Weight and Obese Adults: A Pilot Study

Please see the pdf version of the abstract

Second-generation antihistamines: a study of poisoning in children

The toxicity of second-generation antihistamines after an overdose by a child is still unknown. The objective of this study is to use data from Poisons Centres in France to describe the toxicity profile of second-generation antihistamines for children and to compare the severity of poisoning observed from these with a first-generation antihistamine. This was a retrospective, multi-centre and observational study focusing on human cases of single-substance exposure to a second-generation antihistamine and to mequitazine, reported between 1 January 2001 and 31 December 2016 in Poisons Centres in France. From a total of 9403 children included, 5980 were exposed to a second-generation antihistamine and 3423 were exposed to mequitazine. The severity of exposure to second-generation antihistamines in children is low: among the children followed until a known outcome, 9% of children were symptomatic and in 97% of cases, the symptoms shown were of a minor-level severity (primarily drowsiness or restlessness). Depending on the substance, children who ingested doses 16 to 69 times the maximum recommended therapeutic dose remained asymptomatic. No deaths or severe symptoms were observed. No cases of lengthening of the QT interval or arrhythmias were identified. Mequitazine led to more symptoms than other substances (14.8% symptomatic children vs. 7.5%, Odd ratio (OR): 2.3 (2.0-2.6), p &lt; 0.0001), more symptoms of moderate intensity (1.4 vs. 0.2%, OR: 8.3 (4.1-18.5), p &lt; 0.0001) and more hospitalisation (19.1 vs. 8.7%, OR: 2.5, 95% CI: (2.2-2.8), p &lt; 0.0001). The severity of poisoning from second-generation antihistamines appears to be low among children and considerably lower than poisoning caused by mequitazine

Second order perturbation theory for embedded eigenvalues

We study second order perturbation theory for embedded eigenvalues of an abstract class of self-adjoint operators. Using an extension of the Mourre theory, under assumptions on the regularity of bound states with respect to a conjugate operator, we prove upper semicontinuity of the point spectrum and establish the Fermi Golden Rule criterion. Our results apply to massless Pauli-Fierz Hamiltonians for arbitrary coupling.Comment: 30 pages, 2 figure

Effect of gas properties on the dynamics of the electrical slope asymmetry effect in capacitive plasmas : comparison of Ar, H2 and CF4

Tailored voltage excitation waveforms provide an efficient control of the ion energy (through the electrical asymmetry effect) in capacitive plasmas by varying the 'amplitude' asymmetry of the waveform. In this work, the effect of a 'slope' asymmetry of the waveform is investigated by using sawtooth-like waveforms, through which the sheath dynamic can be manipulated. A remarkably different discharge dynamic is found for Ar, H2, and CF4 gases, which is explained by the different dominant electron heating mechanisms and plasma chemistries. In comparison to Argon we find that the electrical asymmetry can even be reversed by using an electronegative gas such as CF4. Phase resolved optical emission spectroscopy measurements, probing the spatiotemporal distribution of the excitation rate show excellent agreement with the results of particle-in-cell simulations, confirming the high degree of correlation between the excitation rates with the dominant heating mechanisms in the various gases. It is shown that, depending on the gas used, sawtooth-like voltage waveforms may cause a strong asymmetry