Gemini Planet Imager observational calibrations XV: instrument calibrations after six years on sky

The Gemini Planet Imager (GPI) is a high-contrast adaptive optics instrument designed to detect and characterize substellar companions and circumstellar debris disks around nearby young stars using infrared integral field spectroscopy and polarimetry. GPI has been in routine operations at Gemini South for the past six years. Because precise astrometry and photometry of exoplanets is critical to GPI's science, we undertook extensive efforts both in-lab and on-sky to refine the astrometric and photometric calibration of the instrument. We describe revisions to the GPI Data Reduction Pipeline (DRP) that account for these revised calibrations, and that fix several issues identified over the previous six years, including some subtle issues affecting astrometric calibrations caused by a drift of the instrument’s clock. These calibrations are critical for the interpretation of observations obtained with GPI, and for a comparison with measurements from other high-contrast imaging instruments

Gemini Planet Imager observational calibrations XV: instrument calibrations after six years on sky

The Gemini Planet Imager (GPI) is a high-contrast adaptive optics instrument designed to detect and characterize substellar companions and circumstellar debris disks around nearby young stars using infrared integral field spectroscopy and polarimetry. GPI has been in routine operations at Gemini South for the past six years. Because precise astrometry and photometry of exoplanets is critical to GPI's science, we undertook extensive efforts both in-lab and on-sky to refine the astrometric and photometric calibration of the instrument. We describe revisions to the GPI Data Reduction Pipeline (DRP) that account for these revised calibrations, and that fix several issues identified over the previous six years, including some subtle issues affecting astrometric calibrations caused by a drift of the instrument’s clock. These calibrations are critical for the interpretation of observations obtained with GPI, and for a comparison with measurements from other high-contrast imaging instruments

How many are at increased risk of severe COVID-19 disease? Rapid global, regional and national estimates for 2020

BackgroundThe risk of severe COVID-19 disease is known to be higher in older individuals and those with underlying health conditions. Understanding the number of individuals at increased risk of severe COVID-19 illness, and how this varies between countries may inform the design of possible strategies to shield those at highest risk.MethodsWe estimated the number of individuals at increased risk of severe COVID-19 disease by age (5-year age groups), sex and country (n=188) based on prevalence data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study for 2017 and United Nations population estimates for 2020. We also calculated the number of individuals without an underlying condition that could be considered at-risk because of their age, using thresholds from 50-70 years. The list of underlying conditions relevant to COVID-19 disease was determined by mapping conditions listed in GBD to the guidelines published by WHO and public health agencies in the UK and US. We analysed data from two large multimorbidity studies to determine appropriate adjustment factors for clustering and multimorbidity.ResultsWe estimate that 1.7 (1.0 - 2.4) billion individuals (22% [15-28%] of the global population) are at increased risk of severe COVID-19 disease. The share of the population at increased risk ranges from 16% in Africa to 31% in Europe. Chronic kidney disease (CKD), cardiovascular disease (CVD), diabetes and chronic respiratory disease (CRD) were the most prevalent conditions in males and females aged 50+ years. African countries with a high prevalence of HIV/AIDS and Island countries with a high prevalence of diabetes, also had a high share of the population at increased risk. The prevalence of multimorbidity (&gt;1 underlying conditions) was three times higher in Europe than in Africa (10% vs 3%).ConclusionBased on current guidelines and prevalence data from GBD, we estimate that one in five individuals worldwide has a condition that is on the list of those at increased risk of severe COVID-19 disease. However, for many of these individuals the underlying condition will be undiagnosed or not severe enough to be captured in health systems, and in some cases the increase in risk may be quite modest. There is an urgent need for robust analyses of the risks associated with different underlying conditions so that countries can identify the highest risk groups and develop targeted shielding policies to mitigate the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic.Research in contextEvidence before this studyAs the COVID-19 pandemic evolves, countries are considering policies of ‘shielding’ the most vulnerable, but there is currently very limited evidence on the number of individuals that might need to be shielded. Guidelines on who is currently believed to be at increased risk of severe COVID-19 illness have been published online by the WHO and public health agencies in the UK and US. We searched PubMed (“Risk factors” AND “COVID-19”) without language restrictions, from database inception until April 5, 2020, and identified 62 studies published between Feb 15, 2020 and March 20, 2020. Evidence from China, Italy and the USA indicates that older individuals, males and those with underlying conditions, such as CVD, diabetes and CRD, are at greater risk of severe COVID-19 illness and death.Added value of this studyThis study combines evidence from large international databases and new analysis of large multimorbidity studies to inform policymakers about the number of individuals that may be at increased risk of severe COVID-19 illness in different countries. We developed a tool for rapid assessments of the number and percentage of country populations that would need to be targeted under different shielding policies.Implications of all the available evidenceQuantifying how many and who is at increased risk of severe COVID-19 illness is critical to help countries design more effective interventions to protect vulnerable individuals and reduce pressure on health systems. This information can also inform a broader assessment of the health, social and economic implications of shielding various groups.</jats:sec

Global, regional, and national estimates of the population at increased risk of severe COVID-19 due to underlying health conditions in 2020: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: The risk of severe COVID-19 if an individual becomes infected is known to be higher in older individuals and those with underlying health conditions. Understanding the number of individuals at increased risk of severe COVID-19 and how this varies between countries should inform the design of possible strategies to shield or vaccinate those at highest risk. METHODS: We estimated the number of individuals at increased risk of severe disease (defined as those with at least one condition listed as "at increased risk of severe COVID-19" in current guidelines) by age (5-year age groups), sex, and country for 188 countries using prevalence data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 and UN population estimates for 2020. The list of underlying conditions relevant to COVID-19 was determined by mapping the conditions listed in GBD 2017 to those listed in guidelines published by WHO and public health agencies in the UK and the USA. We analysed data from two large multimorbidity studies to determine appropriate adjustment factors for clustering and multimorbidity. To help interpretation of the degree of risk among those at increased risk, we also estimated the number of individuals at high risk (defined as those that would require hospital admission if infected) using age-specific infection-hospitalisation ratios for COVID-19 estimated for mainland China and making adjustments to reflect country-specific differences in the prevalence of underlying conditions and frailty. We assumed males were twice at likely as females to be at high risk. We also calculated the number of individuals without an underlying condition that could be considered at increased risk because of their age, using minimum ages from 50 to 70 years. We generated uncertainty intervals (UIs) for our estimates by running low and high scenarios using the lower and upper 95% confidence limits for country population size, disease prevalences, multimorbidity fractions, and infection-hospitalisation ratios, and plausible low and high estimates for the degree of clustering, informed by multimorbidity studies. FINDINGS: We estimated that 1·7 billion (UI 1·0-2·4) people, comprising 22% (UI 15-28) of the global population, have at least one underlying condition that puts them at increased risk of severe COVID-19 if infected (ranging from 66% of those aged 70 years or older). We estimated that 349 million (186-787) people (4% [3-9] of the global population) are at high risk of severe COVID-19 and would require hospital admission if infected (ranging from <1% of those younger than 20 years to approximately 20% of those aged 70 years or older). We estimated 6% (3-12) of males to be at high risk compared with 3% (2-7) of females. The share of the population at increased risk was highest in countries with older populations, African countries with high HIV/AIDS prevalence, and small island nations with high diabetes prevalence. Estimates of the number of individuals at increased risk were most sensitive to the prevalence of chronic kidney disease, diabetes, cardiovascular disease, and chronic respiratory disease. INTERPRETATION: About one in five individuals worldwide could be at increased risk of severe COVID-19, should they become infected, due to underlying health conditions, but this risk varies considerably by age. Our estimates are uncertain, and focus on underlying conditions rather than other risk factors such as ethnicity, socioeconomic deprivation, and obesity, but provide a starting point for considering the number of individuals that might need to be shielded or vaccinated as the global pandemic unfolds. FUNDING: UK Department for International Development, Wellcome Trust, Health Data Research UK, Medical Research Council, and National Institute for Health Research

Vitamin D receptor polymorphisms and survival in patients with cutaneous melanoma: a population-based study

Factors known to affect melanoma survival include age at presentation, sex and tumor characteristics. Polymorphisms also appear to modulate survival following diagnosis. Result from other studies suggest that vitamin D receptor (VDR) polymorphisms (SNPs) impact survival in patients with glioma, renal cell carcinoma, lung, breast, prostate and other cancers; however, a comprehensive study of VDR polymorphisms and melanoma-specific survival is lacking. We aimed to investigate whether VDR genetic variation influences survival in patients with cutaneous melanoma. The analysis involved 3566 incident single and multiple primary melanoma cases enrolled in the international population-based Genes, Environment, and Melanoma Study. Melanoma-specific survival outcomes were calculated for each of 38 VDR SNPs using a competing risk analysis after adjustment for covariates. There were 254 (7.1%) deaths due to melanoma during the median 7.6 years follow-up period. VDR SNPs rs7299460, rs3782905, rs2239182, rs12370156, rs2238140, rs7305032, rs1544410 (BsmI) and rs731236 (TaqI) each had a statistically significant (trend P values < 0.05) association with melanoma-specific survival in multivariate analysis. One functional SNP (rs2239182) remained significant after adjustment for multiple testing using the Monte Carlo method. None of the SNPs associated with survival were significantly associated with Breslow thickness, ulceration or mitosis. These results suggest that the VDR gene may influence survival from melanoma, although the mechanism by which VDR exerts its effect does not seem driven by tumor aggressiveness. Further investigations are needed to confirm our results and to understand the relationship between VDR and survival in the combined context of tumor and host characteristics

Parent-of-origin-specific allelic associations among 106 genomic loci for age at menarche.

Age at menarche is a marker of timing of puberty in females. It varies widely between individuals, is a heritable trait and is associated with risks for obesity, type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease, breast cancer and all-cause mortality. Studies of rare human disorders of puberty and animal models point to a complex hypothalamic-pituitary-hormonal regulation, but the mechanisms that determine pubertal timing and underlie its links to disease risk remain unclear. Here, using genome-wide and custom-genotyping arrays in up to 182,416 women of European descent from 57 studies, we found robust evidence (P < 5 × 10(-8)) for 123 signals at 106 genomic loci associated with age at menarche. Many loci were associated with other pubertal traits in both sexes, and there was substantial overlap with genes implicated in body mass index and various diseases, including rare disorders of puberty. Menarche signals were enriched in imprinted regions, with three loci (DLK1-WDR25, MKRN3-MAGEL2 and KCNK9) demonstrating parent-of-origin-specific associations concordant with known parental expression patterns. Pathway analyses implicated nuclear hormone receptors, particularly retinoic acid and γ-aminobutyric acid-B2 receptor signalling, among novel mechanisms that regulate pubertal timing in humans. Our findings suggest a genetic architecture involving at least hundreds of common variants in the coordinated timing of the pubertal transition

Genetic Control of mRNA Splicing as a Potential Mechanism for Incomplete Penetrance of Rare Coding Variants

Exonic variants present some of the strongest links between genotype and phenotype. However, these variants can have significant inter-individual pathogenicity differences, known as variable penetrance. In this study, we propose a model where genetically controlled mRNA splicing modulates the pathogenicity of exonic variants. By first cataloging exonic inclusion from RNA-sequencing data in GTEx V8, we find that pathogenic alleles are depleted on highly included exons. Using a large-scale phased whole genome sequencing data from the TOPMed consortium, we observe that this effect may be driven by common splice-regulatory genetic variants, and that natural selection acts on haplotype configurations that reduce the transcript inclusion of putatively pathogenic variants, especially when limiting to haploinsufficient genes. Finally, we test if this effect may be relevant for autism risk using families from the Simons Simplex Collection, but find that splicing of pathogenic alleles has a penetrance reducing effect here as well. Overall, our results indicate that common splice-regulatory variants may play a role in reducing the damaging effects of rare exonic variants