Will more of the same achieve malaria elimination? Results from an integrated macroeconomic epidemiological demographic model

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from the publisher via the DOI in this recordThe data underlying the model framework are available from the authors on request and selected parameters are also tabulated in the methods paper,22 and from the Malaria Atlas Project http:// www.map.ox.ac.uk/Historic levels of funding have reduced the global burden of malaria in recent years. Questions remain, however, as to whether scaling up interventions, in parallel with economic growth, has made malaria elimination more likely today than previously. The consequences of “trying but failing” to eliminate malaria are also uncertain. Reduced malaria exposure decreases the acquisition of semi-immunity during childhood, a necessary phase of the immunological transition that occurs on the pathway to malaria elimination. During this transitional period, the risk of malaria resurgence increases as proportionately more individuals across all age-groups are less able to manage infections by immune response alone. We developed a robust model that integrates the effects of malaria transmission, demography, and macroeconomics in the context of Plasmodium falciparum malaria within a hyperendemic environment. We analyzed the potential for existing interventions, alongside economic development, to achieve malaria elimination. Simulation results indicate that a 2% increase in future economic growth will increase the US$5.1 billion cumulative economic burden of malaria in Ghana to US$7.2 billion, although increasing regional insecticide-treated net coverage rates by 25% will lower malaria reproduction numbers by just 9%, reduce population-wide morbidity by −0.1%, and reduce prevalence from 54% to 46% by 2034. As scaling up current malaria control tools, combined with economic growth, will be insufficient to interrupt malaria transmission in Ghana, high levels of malaria control should be maintained and investment in research and development should be increased to maintain the gains of the past decade and to minimize the risk of resurgence, as transmission dropsMedical Research Council (MRC

Measurements of the velocity distribution for granular flow in a Couette cell

© 2018 American Physical Society. In this paper, magnetic resonance velocimetry is used to measure the spatially resolved velocity and velocity fluctuations for granular flow in a Couette cell for four different particle sizes. The largest particles studied (dp=1.7mm) showed significant slip at the inner wall. The remaining particles showed no slip and all exhibit the same behavior in the profiles of the mean velocity and variance of velocity. The measurements demonstrate that the velocity and variance in velocity scale with the inner wall velocity U; the variance does not scale with U2. The experimental data were compared with a kinetic theory based model of granular flow and a hydrodynamic model. It was found that the shear rate scales with an exponent of 1.5-2.0 with respect to the velocity fluctuations (uy2), compared with the value of 1.0 expected from kinetic theory. The difference in the exponent is consistent with the effect of collective dynamics as described by the hydrodynamic model

The macro-economic effects of health co-benefits associated with climate change mitigation strategies

The UK government has specific targets for greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction to lower the risk of dangerous climate change. Strategies to reduce GHG emissions are sometimes perceived as expensive and difficult to implement but previous work has demonstrated significant potential health co-benefits from ‘Active Travel and low carbon driving’, ‘Housing Insulation/Ventilation’, and ‘Healthy Diet’ scenarios which may be attractive to policymakers. Here a Computable General Equilibrium model is used to assess the financial effects of such health co-benefits on the wider economy including changes in labour force, social security payments and healthcare costs averted. Results suggest that for all scenarios the financial impacts of the health co-benefits will be positive and increased active travel in particular is likely to make a substantial contribution, largely due to health care costs averted. Strategies to reduce GHG emissions and improve health are likely to result in substantial and increasing positive contributions to the economy which may offset some potential economic costs and thereby be seen more favourably in times of economic austerity

The impact of Covid-19, associated behaviours and policies on the UK economy: A computable general equilibrium model

This is the final version. Available on open access from Elsevier via the DOI in this record. We estimate the potential impact of COVID-19 on the United Kingdom economy, including direct disease effects, preventive public actions and associated policies. A sectoral, whole-economy macroeconomic model was linked to a population-wide epidemiological demographic model to assess the potential macroeconomic impact of COVID-19, together with policies to mitigate or suppress the pandemic by means of home quarantine, school closures, social distancing and accompanying business closures. Our simulations indicate that, assuming a clinical attack rate of 48% and a case fatality ratio of 1.5%, COVID-19 alone would impose a direct health-related economic burden of £39.6bn (1.73% of GDP) on the UK economy. Mitigation strategies imposed for 12 weeks reduce case fatalities by 29%, but the total cost to the economy is £308bn (13.5% of GDP); £66bn (2.9% of GDP) of which is attributable to labour lost from working parents during school closures, and £201bn (8.8% of GDP) of which is attributable to business closures. Suppressing the pandemic over a longer period of time may reduce deaths by 95%, but the total cost to the UK economy also increases to £668bn (29.2% of GDP), where £166bn (7.3% of GDP) is attributable to school closures and 502bn (21.9% of GDP) to business closures. Our analyses suggest Covid-19 has the potential to impose unprecedented economic costs on the UK economy, and whilst public actions are necessary to minimise mortality, the duration of school and business closures are key to determining the economic cost. The initial economic support package promised by the UK government may be proportionate to the costs of mitigating Covid-19, but without alternative measures to reduce the scale and duration of school and business closures, the economic support may be insufficient to compensate for longer term suppression of the pandemic which could generate an even greater health impact through major recession.EU Horizon 202

Output from VIP cells of the mammalian central clock regulates daily physiological rhythms

The suprachiasmatic nucleus (SCN) circadian clock is critical for optimising daily cycles in mammalian physiology and behaviour. The roles of the various SCN cell types in communicating timing information to downstream physiological systems remain incompletely understood, however. In particular, while vasoactive intestinal polypeptide (VIP) signalling is essential for SCN function and whole animal circadian rhythmicity, the specific contributions of VIP cell output to physiological control remains uncertain. Here we reveal a key role for SCN VIP cells in central clock output. Using multielectrode recording and optogenetic manipulations, we show that VIP neurons provide coordinated daily waves of GABAergic input to target cells across the paraventricular hypothalamus and ventral thalamus, supressing their activity during the mid to late day. Using chemogenetic manipulation, we further demonstrate specific roles for this circuitry in the daily control of heart rate and corticosterone secretion, collectively establishing SCN VIP cells as influential regulators of physiological timing

Hardness characterisation of grey cast iron and its tribological performance in a contact lubricated with soybean oil

The effect of hardness of grey cast iron flat specimen on its wear and friction on the contact were characterised with the presence of vegetable oil as biolubricant. Prior to the tribological test, the as - received grey cast iron flat specimen hardness was characterised. Friction and wear tests were then conducted using a ball - on - flat reciprocating sliding contact. The one - way analysis of variance (ANOVA) was used to determine the significance of friction and wear data with a 95% significance level. The wear scars after the test were then characterised by surface roughness and wear mechanism. The microstructure and elemental analysis we re also reported. The average value of hardness was 210 HV with a large difference between minimum (185 HV) and maximum (250 HV) values. The friction and wear performance of grey cast iron specimens with soybean oil varied with its hardness. The specimens with higher hardness gave lower friction coefficient and greater wear resistance than the lower hardness specimens. The difference in coefficient of friction produced between high hardness specimens (COF = 0.122) and low hardness specimens (COF = 0.140) wa s 17%. In terms of mass loss, the low hardness 2 specimens (mass loss = 50.38 mg) and the high hardness specimens (mass loss = 12.90 mg) produced a difference of 74%. It is shown that, with soybean oil lubricant, the grey cast iron specimen can produce wide range of tribological data especially on mass loss due to its hardness distribution. The influence of soybean oil lubrication in this work is less in improving the wear resistance (about 7%), but greater for friction reduction (about 24%) compared to an un lubricated grey cast iron surface. The hardness of grey cast iron specimen is an important parameter that needs to be specifically measured and controlled on the contact due to wide hardness distribution of grey cast iron may produce variation in tribologi cal data

Synergies for Improving Oil Palm Production and Forest Conservation in Floodplain Landscapes

Lowland tropical forests are increasingly threatened with conversion to oil palm as global demand and high profit drives crop expansion throughout the world’s tropical regions. Yet, landscapes are not homogeneous and regional constraints dictate land suitability for this crop. We conducted a regional study to investigate spatial and economic components of forest conversion to oil palm within a tropical floodplain in the Lower Kinabatangan, Sabah, Malaysian Borneo. The Kinabatangan ecosystem harbours significant biodiversity with globally threatened species but has suffered forest loss and fragmentation. We mapped the oil palm and forested landscapes (using object-based-image analysis, classification and regression tree analysis and on-screen digitising of high-resolution imagery) and undertook economic modelling. Within the study region (520,269 ha), 250,617 ha is cultivated with oil palm with 77% having high Net-Present-Value (NPV) estimates ($413/ha?yr–$637/ha?yr); but 20.5% is under-producing. In fact 6.3% (15,810 ha) of oil palm is commercially redundant (with negative NPV of $-299/ha?yr-$-65/ha?yr) due to palm mortality from flood inundation. These areas would have been important riparian or flooded forest types. Moreover, 30,173 ha of unprotected forest remain and despite its value for connectivity and biodiversity 64% is allocated for future oil palm. However, we estimate that at minimum 54% of these forests are unsuitable for this crop due to inundation events. If conversion to oil palm occurs, we predict a further 16,207 ha will become commercially redundant. This means that over 32,000 ha of forest within the floodplain would have been converted for little or no financial gain yet with significant cost to the ecosystem. Our findings have globally relevant implications for similar floodplain landscapes undergoing forest transformation to agriculture such as oil palm. Understanding landscape level constraints to this crop, and transferring these into policy and practice, may provide conservation and economic opportunities within these seemingly high opportunity cost landscapes

Incident venous thromboembolic events in the Prospective Study of Pravastatin in the Elderly at Risk (PROSPER)

<p>Background: Venous thromboembolic events (VTE), including deep venous thrombosis and pulmonary embolism, are common in older age. It has been suggested that statins might reduce the risk of VTE however positive results from studies of middle aged subjects may not be generalisable to elderly people. We aimed to determine the effect of pravastatin on incident VTE in older people; we also studied the impact of clinical and plasma risk variables.</p> <p>Methods: This study was an analysis of incident VTE using data from the Prospective Study of Pravastatin in the Elderly at Risk (PROSPER), a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial of pravastatin in men and women aged 70-82. Mean follow-up was 3.2 years. Risk for VTE was examined in non-warfarin treated pravastatin (n = 2834) and placebo (n = 2865) patients using a Cox's proportional hazard model, and the impact of other risk factors assessed in a multivariate forward stepwise regression analysis. Baseline clinical characteristics, blood biochemistry and hematology variables, plasma levels of lipids and lipoproteins, and plasma markers of inflammation and adiposity were compared. Plasma markers of thrombosis and hemostasis were assessed in a nested case (n = 48) control (n = 93) study where the cohort was those participants, not on warfarin, for whom data were available.</p> <p>Results: There were 28 definite cases (1.0%) of incident VTE in the pravastatin group recipients and 20 cases (0.70%) in placebo recipients. Pravastatin did not reduce VTE in PROSPER compared to placebo [unadjusted hazard ratio (95% confidence interval) 1.42 (0.80, 2.52) p = 0.23]. Higher body mass index (BMI) [1.09 (1.02, 1.15) p = 0.0075], country [Scotland vs Netherlands 4.26 (1.00, 18.21) p = 0.050 and Ireland vs Netherlands 6.16 (1.46, 26.00) p = 0.013], lower systolic blood pressure [1.35 (1.03, 1.75) p = 0.027] and lower baseline Mini Mental State Examination (MMSE) score [1.19 (1.01, 1.41) p = 0.034] were associated with an increased risk of VTE, however only BMI, country and systolic blood pressure remained significant on multivariate analysis. In a nested case control study of definite VTE, plasma Factor VIII levels were associated with VTE [1.52 (1.01, 2.28), p = 0.044]. However no other measure of thrombosis and haemostasis was associated with increased risk of VTE.</p> <p>Conclusions: Pravastatin does not prevent VTE in elderly people at risk of vascular disease. Blood markers of haemostasis and inflammation are not strongly predictive of VTE in older age however BMI, country and lower systolic blood pressure are independently associated with VTE risk.</p&gt

Mutation at the Evi1 locus in Junbo mice causes susceptibility to otitis media

Otitis media ( OM), inflammation of the middle ear, remains the most common cause of hearing impairment in children. It is also the most common cause of surgery in children in the developed world. There is evidence from studies of the human population and mouse models that there is a significant genetic component predisposing to OM, yet nothing is known about the underlying genetic pathways involved in humans. We identified an N-ethyl-N-nitrosourea-induced dominant mouse mutant Junbo with hearing loss due to chronic suppurative OM and otorrhea. This develops from acute OM that arises spontaneously in the postnatal period, with the age of onset and early severity dependent on the microbiological status of the mice and their air quality. We have identified the causal mutation, a missense change in the C-terminal zinc finger region of the transcription factor Evi1. This protein is expressed in middle ear basal epithelial cells, fibroblasts, and neutrophil leukocytes at postnatal day 13 and 21 when inflammatory changes are underway. The identification and characterization of the Junbo mutant elaborates a novel role for Evi1 in mammalian disease and implicates a new pathway in genetic predisposition to OM