Forecasting for day-ahead offshore maintenance scheduling under uncertainty

Offshore wind farm maintenance operations are complex and dangerous, and as such are subject to strict safety constraints. In addition, crew and vessels must be scheduled in advance for both planned and reactive maintenance operations. Meteorological forecasts on many time-scales are used to inform scheduling decisions, but are imperfect. Short-term maintenance scheduling is therefore a problem of decision-making under uncertainty. This paper proposes a probabilistic approach to the short-term scheduling problem based on a cost-loss model for individual maintenance missions, and probabilistic forecasts of appropriate access windows. This approach is found to increase the utilisation of possible access windows compared to using deterministic decision rules. The impact of forecasting on the availability and operational costs of oshore wind is then examined using a Monte Carlo-based cost model. This has quantified the impact on availability and revenue performance under a range of site conditions

Chemical transport model ozone simulations for spring 2001 over the western Pacific:comparisons with TRACE-P lidar, ozonesondes, and Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer columns

Two closely related chemical transport models (CTMs) employing the same high-resolution meteorological data (similar to180 km x similar to180 km x similar to600 m) from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts are used to simulate the ozone total column and tropospheric distribution over the western Pacific region that was explored by the NASA Transport and Chemical Evolution over the Pacific (TRACE-P) measurement campaign in February-April 2001. We make extensive comparisons with ozone measurements from the lidar instrument on the NASA DC-8, with ozonesondes taken during the period around the Pacific Rim, and with TOMS total column ozone. These demonstrate that within the uncertainties of the meteorological data and the constraints of model resolution, the two CTMs (FRSGC/UCI and Oslo CTM2) can simulate the observed tropospheric ozone and do particularly well when realistic stratospheric ozone photochemistry is included. The greatest differences between the models and observations occur in the polluted boundary layer, where problems related to the simplified chemical mechanism and inadequate horizontal resolution are likely to have caused the net overestimation of about 10 ppb mole fraction. In the upper troposphere, the large variability driven by stratospheric intrusions makes agreement very sensitive to the timing of meteorological features

Cumulus cloud venting of mixed layer ozone

Observations are presented which substantiate the hypothesis that significant vertical exchange of ozone and aerosols occurs between the mixed layer and the free troposphere during cumulus cloud convective activity. The experiments utilized the airborne Ultra-Violet Differential Absorption Lidar (UV-DIAL) system. This system provides simultaneous range resolved ozone concentration and aerosol backscatter profiles with high spatial resolution. Evening transects were obtained in the downwind area where the air mass had been advected. Space-height analyses for the evening flight show the cloud debris as patterns of ozone typically in excess of the ambient free tropospheric background. This ozone excess was approximately the value of the concentration difference between the mixed layer and free troposphere determined from independent vertical soundings made by another aircraft in the afternoon

Development of a high-altitude airborne dial system: The Lidar Atmospheric Sensing Experiment (LASE)

The ability of a Differential Absorption Lidar (DIAL) system to measure vertical profiles of H2O in the lower atmosphere was demonstrated both in ground-based and airborne experiments. In these experiments, tunable lasers were used that required real-time experimenter control to locate and lock onto the atmospheric H2O absorption line for the DIAL measurements. The Lidar Atmospheric Sensing Experiment (LASE) is the first step in a long-range effort to develop and demonstrate an autonomous DIAL system for airborne and spaceborne flight experiments. The LASE instrument is being developed to measure H2O, aerosol, and cloud profiles from a high-altitude ER-2 (extended range U-2) aircraft. The science of the LASE program, the LASE system design, and the expected measurement capability of the system are discussed

A review of very short-term wind and solar power forecasting

Installed capacities of wind and solar power have grown rapidly over recent years, and the pool of literature on very short-term (minutes- to hours-ahead) wind and solar forecasting has grown in line with this. This paper reviews established and emerging approaches to provide an up-to-date view of the field. Knowledge transfer between wind and solar forecasting has benefited the field and is discussed, and new opportunities are identified, particularly regarding use of remote sensing technology. Forecasting methodologies and study design are compared and recommendations for high quality, reproducible results are presented. In particular, the choice of suitable benchmarks and use of sufficiently long datasets is highlighted. A case study of three distinct approaches to probabilistic wind power forecasting is presented using an open dataset. The case study provides an example of exemplary forecast evaluation, and open source code allows for its reproduction and use in future work

An assessment of ozone photochemistry in the extratropical western North Pacific: Impact of continental outflow during the late winter/early spring

This study examines the influence of photochemical processes on tropospheric ozone distributions over the extratropical western North Pacific. The analysis presented ere is based on data collected during the Pacific Exploratory Mission-West Phase B (PEM-West B) field study conducted in February-March 1994. Sampling in the study region involved altitudes of 0-12 km and latitudes of 10°S to 50°N. The extratropical component of the data set (i.e., 20-50°N) was defined by markedly different photochemical environments north and south of 30°N. This separation was clearly defined by an abrupt decrease in the tropopause height near 30°N and a concomitant increase in total O3 column density. This shift in overhead O3 led to highly reduced rates of O3 formation and destruction for the 30-50°N latitude regime. Both latitude ranges, however, stili exhibited net O3 production at all altitudes. Of special significance was the finding that net O3 production prevailed even at boundary layer and lower free tropospheric altitudes (e.g., < 4 km), a condition uncommon to Pacific marine environments. These results reflect the strong impact of continental outflow of O3 precursors (e.g., NO and NMHCs) into the northwestern Pacific Basin. Comparisons with PEM-West A, which sampled the same region in a different season (September-October), revealed major differences at altitudes below 4 km, the altitude range most influenced by continental outflow. The resulting net rate of increase in the tropospheric O3 column for PEM-West B was 1-3% per day, while for PEM-West A it was approximately zero. Unique to the PEM-West B study is the finding that even under wintertime conditions substantial column production of tropospheric O3 can occur at subtropical and mid-latitudes. While such impacts may not be totally unexpected at near coast locations, the present study suggests that the impact from continental outflow on the marine BL could extend out to distances of more than 2000 km from the Asian Pacific Rim

Implications of large scale shifts in tropospheric NOx levels in the remote tropical Pacific

A major observation recorded during NASA's western Pacific Exploratory Mission (PEM-West B) was the large shift in tropical NO levels as a function of geographical location. High-altitude NO levels exceeding 100 pptv were observed during portions of tropical flights 5-8, while values almost never exceeded 20 pptv during tropical flights 9 and 10. The geographical regions encompassing these two flight groupings are here labeled "high" and "low" NOx regimes. A comparison of these two regimes, based on back trajectories and chemical tracers, suggests that air parcels in both were strongly influenced by deep convection. The low NOx regime appears to have been predominantly impacted by marine convection, whereas the high NOx regime shows evidence of having been more influenced by deep convection over a continental land mass. DMSP satellite observations point strongly toward lightning as the major source of NOx in the latter regime. Photochemical ozone formation in the high NOx regime exceeded that for low NOx by factors of 2 to 6, whereas O3 destruction in the low NOx regime exceeded that for high NOx by factors of up to 3. Taking the tropopause height to be 17 km, estimates of the net photochemical effect on the O3 column revealed that the high NOx regime led to a small net production. By contrast, the low NOx regime was shown to destroy O3 at the rate of 3.4% per day. One proposed mechanism for off-setting this projected large deficit would involve the transport of O3 rich midlatitude air into the tropics. Alternatively, it is suggested that O3 within the tropics may be overall near self-sustaining with respect to photochemical activity. This scenario would require that some tropical regions, unsampled at the time of PEM-B, display significant net column O3 production, leading to an overall balanced budget for the "greater" tropical Pacific basin. Details concerning the chemical nature of such regimes are discussed

In situ measurements of tropospheric volcanic plumes in Ecuador and Colombia during TC^4

A NASA DC-8 research aircraft penetrated tropospheric gas and aerosol plumes sourced from active volcanoes in Ecuador and Colombia during the Tropical Composition, Cloud and Climate Coupling (TC^4) mission in July–August 2007. The likely source volcanoes were Tungurahua (Ecuador) and Nevado del Huila (Colombia). The TC^4 data provide rare insight into the chemistry of volcanic plumes in the tropical troposphere and permit a comparison of SO_2 column amounts measured by the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) on the Aura satellite with in situ SO_2 measurements. Elevated concentrations of SO_2, sulfate aerosol, and particles were measured by DC-8 instrumentation in volcanic outflow at altitudes of 3–6 km. Estimated plume ages range from ~2 h at Huila to ~22–48 h downwind of Ecuador. The plumes contained sulfate-rich accumulation mode particles that were variably neutralized and often highly acidic. A significant fraction of supermicron volcanic ash was evident in one plume. In-plume O_3 concentrations were ~70%–80% of ambient levels downwind of Ecuador, but data are insufficient to ascribe this to O_3 depletion via reactive halogen chemistry. The TC^4 data record rapid cloud processing of the Huila volcanic plume involving aqueous-phase oxidation of SO_2 by H_2O_2, but overall the data suggest average in-plume SO_2 to sulfate conversion rates of ~1%–2% h^(−1). SO_2 column amounts measured in the Tungurahua plume (~0.1–0.2 Dobson units) are commensurate with average SO_2 columns retrieved from OMI measurements in the volcanic outflow region in July 2007. The TC^4 data set provides further evidence of the impact of volcanic emissions on tropospheric acidity and oxidizing capacity