A Systematic Approach to Determining the Identifiability of Multistage Carcinogenesis Models

Peer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/137771/1/risa12684_am.pdfhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/137771/2/risa12684.pd

Phenotypic variations in persistence and infectivity between and within environmentally transmitted pathogen populations impact population-level epidemic dynamics

Abstract Background Human pathogens transmitted through environmental pathways are subject to stress and pressures outside of the host. These pressures may cause pathogen pathovars to diverge in their environmental persistence and their infectivity on an evolutionary time-scale. On a shorter time-scale, a single-genotype pathogen population may display wide variation in persistence times and exhibit biphasic decay. Methods We use a transmission modeling framework to develop an infectious disease model with biphasic pathogen decay. We take a differential algebra approach to assessing model identifiability, calculate basic reproduction numbers by the next generation method, and use simulation to explore model dynamics. Results For both long and short time-scales, we demonstrate that epidemic-potential-preserving trade-offs have implications for epidemic dynamics: less infectious, more persistent pathogens cause epidemics to progress more slowly than more infectious, less persistent (labile) pathogens, even when the overall risk is the same. Using identifiability analysis, we show that the usual disease surveillance data does not sufficiently inform these underlying pathogen population dynamics, even when combined with basic environmental monitoring data. However, risk could be indirectly ascertained by developing methods to separately monitor labile and persistent subpopulations. Alternatively, determining the relative infectivity of persistent pathogen subpopulations and the rates of phenotypic conversion will help ascertain how much disease risk is associated with the long tails of biphasic decay. Conclusion A better understanding of persistence–infectivity trade-offs and associated dynamics can improve our ecological understanding of environmentally transmitted pathogens, as well as our risk assessment and disease control strategies.https://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/149181/1/12879_2019_Article_4054.pd

Effect of Daily Antenatal Iron Supplementation on Plasmodium Infection in Kenyan Women: A Randomized Clinical Trial.

IMPORTANCE: Anemia affects most pregnant African women and is predominantly due to iron deficiency, but antenatal iron supplementation has uncertain health benefits and can increase the malaria burden. OBJECTIVE: To measure the effect of antenatal iron supplementation on maternal Plasmodium infection risk, maternal iron status, and neonatal outcomes. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Randomized placebo-controlled trial conducted October 2011 through April 2013 in a malaria endemic area among 470 rural Kenyan women aged 15 to 45 years with singleton pregnancies, gestational age of 13 to 23 weeks, and hemoglobin concentration of 9 g/dL or greater. All women received 5.7 mg iron/day through flour fortification during intervention, and usual intermittent preventive treatment against malaria was given. INTERVENTIONS: Supervised daily supplementation with 60 mg of elemental iron (as ferrous fumarate, n = 237 women) or placebo (n = 233) from randomization until 1 month postpartum. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Primary outcome was maternal Plasmodium infection at birth. Predefined secondary outcomes were birth weight and gestational age at delivery, intrauterine growth, and maternal and infant iron status at 1 month after birth. RESULTS: Among the 470 participating women, 40 women (22 iron, 18 placebo) were lost to follow-up or excluded at birth; 12 mothers were lost to follow-up postpartum (5 iron, 7 placebo). At baseline, 190 of 318 women (59.7%) were iron-deficient. In intention-to-treat analysis, comparison of women who received iron vs placebo, respectively, yielded the following results at birth: Plasmodium infection risk: 50.9% vs 52.1% (crude difference, -1.2%, 95% CI, -11.8% to 9.5%; P = .83); birth weight: 3202 g vs 3053 g (crude difference, 150 g, 95% CI, 56 to 244; P = .002); birth-weight-for-gestational-age z score: 0.52 vs 0.31 (crude difference, 0.21, 95% CI, -0.11 to 0.52; P = .20); and at 1 month after birth: maternal hemoglobin concentration: 12.89 g/dL vs 11.99 g/dL (crude difference, 0.90 g/dL, 95% CI, 0.61 to 1.19; P < .001); geometric mean maternal plasma ferritin concentration: 32.1 µg/L vs 14.4 µg/L (crude difference, 123.4%, 95% CI, 85.5% to 169.1%; P < .001); geometric mean neonatal plasma ferritin concentration: 163.0 µg/L vs 138.7 µg/L (crude difference, 17.5%, 95% CI, 2.4% to 34.8%; P = .02). Serious adverse events were reported for 9 and 12 women who received iron and placebo, respectively. There was no evidence that intervention effects on Plasmodium infection risk were modified by intermittent preventive treatment use. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Among rural Kenyan women with singleton pregnancies, administration of daily iron supplementation, compared with administration of placebo, resulted in no significant differences in overall maternal Plasmodium infection risk. Iron supplementation led to increased birth weight. TRIAL REGISTRATION: clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT01308112

The learning curve associated with the introduction of the subcutaneous implantable defibrillator

Aims: The subcutaneous implantable cardioverter defibrillator (S-ICD) was introduced to overcome complications related to transvenous leads. Adoption of the S-ICD requires implanters to learn a new implantation technique. The aim of this study was to assess the learning curve for S-ICD implanters with respect to implant-related complications, procedure time, and inappropriate shocks (IASs). Methods and results: In a pooled cohort from two clinical S-ICD databases, the IDE Trial and the EFFORTLESS Registry, complications, IASs at 180 days follow-up and implant procedure duration were assessed. Patients were grouped in quartiles based on experience of the implanter and Kaplan-Meier estimates of complication and IAS rates were calculated. A total of 882 patients implanted in 61 centres by 107 implanters with a median of 4 implants (IQR 1,8) were analysed. There were a total of 59 patients with complications and 48 patients with IAS. The complication rate decreased significantly from 9.8% in Quartile 1 (least experience) to 5.4% in Quartile 4 (most experience) (P = 0.02) and non-significantly for IAS from 7.9 to 4.8% (P = 0.10). Multivariable analysis demonstrated a hazard ratio of 0.78 (P = 0.045) for complications and 1.01 (P = 0.958) for IAS. Dual-zone programming increased with experience of the individual implanter (P 13 implants). Conclusion: There is a short and significant learning curve associated with physicians adopting the S-ICD. Performance stab

Fluctuating optimum and temporally variable selection on breeding date in birds and mammals

International audienceTemporal variation in natural selection is predicted to strongly impact the evolution and demography of natural populations, with consequences for the rate of adaptation, evolution of plasticity, and extinction risk. Most of the theory underlying these predictions assumes a moving optimum phenotype, with predictions expressed in terms of the temporal variance and autocorrelation of this optimum. However, empirical studies seldom estimate patterns of fluctuations of an optimum phenotype, precluding further progress in connecting theory with observations. To bridge this gap, we assess the evidence for temporal variation in selection on breeding date by modeling a fitness function with a fluctuating optimum, across 39 populations of 21 wild animals, one of the largest compilations of long-term datasets with individual measurements of trait and fitness components. We find compelling evidence for fluctuations in the fitness function, causing temporal variation in the magnitude, but not the direction of selection. However, fluctuations of the optimum phenotype need not directly translate into variation in selection gradients, because their impact can be buffered by partial tracking of the optimum by the mean phenotype. Analyzing individuals that reproduce in consecutive years, we find that plastic changes track movements of the optimum phenotype across years, especially in bird species, reducing temporal variation in directional selection. This suggests that phenological plasticity has evolved to cope with fluctuations in the optimum, despite their currently modest contribution to variation in selection

Hyponatremia and hospital outcomes among patients with pneumonia: a retrospective cohort study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Community-acquired (CAP) and nosocomial pneumonias contribute substantially to morbidity and hospital resource utilization. Hyponatremia, occurring in >1/4 of patients with CAP, is associated with greater disease severity and worsened outcomes.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>To explore how hyponatremia is associated with outcomes in hospitalized patients with pneumonia, we analyzed a large administrative database with laboratory component from January 2004 to December 2005. Hyponatremia was defined as at least two [Na⁺] < 135 mEq/L within 24 hours of admission value.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Of 7,965 patients with pneumonia, 649 (8.1%) with hyponatremia were older (72.4 ± 15.7 vs. 68.0 ± 22.0, p < 0.01), had a higher mean Deyo-Charlson Comorbidity Index Score (1.7 ± 1.7 vs. 1.6 ± 1.6, p = 0.02), and higher rates of ICU (10.0% vs. 6.3%, p < 0.001) and MV (3.9% vs. 2.3%, p = 0.01) in the first 48 hours of hospitalization than patients with normal sodium. Hyponatremia was associated with an increased ICU (6.3 ± 5.6 vs. 5.3 ± 5.1 days, p = 0.07) and hospital lengths of stay (LOS, 7.6 ± 5.3 vs. 7.0 ± 5.2 days, p < 0.001) and a trend toward increased hospital mortality (5.4% vs. 4.0%, p = 0.1). After adjusting for confounders, hyponatremia was associated with an increased risk of ICU (OR 1.58, 95% CI 1.20–2.08), MV (OR 1.75 95% CI 1.13–2.69), and hospital death (OR 1.3, 95% CI 0.90–1.87) and with increases of 0.8 day to ICU and 0.3 day to hospital LOS, and over $1,300 to total hospital costs.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Hyponatremia is common among hospitalized patients with pneumonia and is associated with worsened clinical and economic outcomes. Studies in this large population are needed to explore whether prompt correction of [Na⁺] may impact these outcomes.</p

Genetic variants in RBFOX3 are associated with sleep latency

Time to fall asleep (sleep latency) is a major determinant of sleep quality. Chronic, long sleep latency is a major characteristic of sleep-onset insomnia and/or delayed sleep phase syndrome. In this study we aimed to discover common polymorphisms that contribute to the genetics of sleep latency. We performed a meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies (GWAS) including 2 572 737 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) established in seven European cohorts including 4242 individuals. We found a cluster of three highly correlated variants (rs9900428, rs9907432 and rs7211029) in the RNA-binding protein fox-1 homolog 3 gene (RBFOX3) associated with sleep latency (P-values=5.77 × 10-08, 6.59 × 10- 08 and 9.17 × 10- 08). These SNPs were replicated in up to 12 independent populations including 30 377 individuals (P-values=1.5 × 10- 02, 7.0 × 10- 03 and 2.5 × 10- 03; combined meta-analysis P-values=5.5 × 10-07, 5.4 × 10-07 and 1.0 × 10-07). A functional prediction of RBFOX3 based on co-expression with other genes shows that this gene is predominantly expressed in brain (P-value=1.4 × 10-316) and the central nervous system (P-value=7.5 × 10- 321). The predicted function of RBFOX3 based on co-expression analysis with other genes shows that this gene is significantly involved in the release cycle of neurotransmitte