Disease transmission models for public health decision making: analysis of epidemic and endemic conditions caused by waterborne pathogens.

Developing effective policy for environmental health issues requires integrating large collections of information that are diverse, highly variable, and uncertain. Despite these uncertainties in the science, decisions must be made. These decisions often have been based on risk assessment. We argue that two important features of risk assessment are to identify research needs and to provide information for decision making. One type of information that a model can provide is the sensitivity of making one decision over another on factors that drive public health risk. To achieve this goal, a risk assessment framework must be based on a description of the exposure and disease processes. Regarding exposure to waterborne pathogens, the appropriate framework is one that explicitly models the disease transmission pathways of pathogens. This approach provides a crucial link between science and policy. Two studies--a Giardia risk assessment case study and an analysis of the 1993 Milwaukee, Wisconsin, Cryptosporidium outbreak--illustrate the role that models can play in policy making

Patterns of Use of Human Papillomavirus and Other Adolescent Vaccines in the United States

AbstractPurposeThe purpose of the study was to describe the patterns of use of universally recommended adolescent vaccines in the United States.MethodsWe identified 11-year-olds using the MarketScan insurance claims database (2009–2014). Human papillomavirus (HPV), tetanus-diphtheria-acellular pertussis (Tdap), and meningococcal (MenACWY) vaccination claims were identified using diagnosis and procedure codes. Generalized linear models estimated vaccination incidence rates and correlates of adolescent vaccination and timely vaccination.ResultsAmong 1,691,223 adolescents, receipt of Tdap (52.1%) and MenACWY (45.8%) vaccinations exceeded receipt of HPV vaccination (18.4%). While both sexes had similar Tdap and MenACWY vaccination proportions, girls received HPV vaccination more frequently than boys (21.9% vs. 15.1%). Adolescents received HPV vaccination later (mean age: 11.8 years) than Tdap or MenACWY vaccination (mean age: 11.2 years for both). Half of vaccinated adolescents received Tdap and MenACWY vaccination only; however, coadministration with HPV vaccine increased with birth cohort. Western adolescents had the highest incidence rates of HPV vaccination, and Southern adolescents had the lowest. Rural adolescents were less likely than urban adolescents to receive each vaccination except in the Northeast, where they were more likely to receive HPV vaccination (incidence rate ratio: 1.09, 95% confidence interval: 1.2005–1.13). Timely HPV vaccination was associated with female sex, urbanicity, Western residence, and later birth cohort.ConclusionsHPV vaccination occurred later than Tdap or MenACWY vaccination and was less frequent in boys and rural adolescents. Girls, Western and urban residents, and younger birth cohorts were more likely to receive timely HPV vaccination. Vaccine coadministration increased over time and may encourage timely and complete vaccination coverage

Timing and predictors of severe rotavirus gastroenteritis among unvaccinated infants in low- and middle-income countries

Delays in rotavirus vaccine schedule could improve performance in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). However, delaying the first dose could be detrimental if infants experience severe rotavirus gastroenteritis (RVGE) early in life. Our objective was to describe the timing and predictors of severe RVGE in unvaccinated children in LMICs. We analysed the placebo arms from two clinical trials (cohort 1: NCT00241644; cohort 2: NCT00362648). We estimated the rate, cumulative incidence (per 1000 infants) and age distribution of severe RVGE episodes. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the association between baseline factors and severe RVGE. Cumulative incidence at 6 months of age was 23/1000 (95% CI 15-30) in cohort 1 and 6/1000 (95% CI 3-8) in cohort 2. Early antibiotic use (compared with no use) was associated with 2.03 (95% CI 1.18-3.48) and 1.41 (95% CI 0.80-2.51) times the rate of severe RVGE in cohorts 1 and 2, respectively. The cumulative incidence of severe RVGE was low at 6 months of age, suggesting that a 4-week delay in the vaccination schedule may not result in a large number of severe RVGE episodes prior to vaccine receipt. Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2018

Adherence to osteoporosis drugs and fracture prevention: no evidence of healthy adherer bias in a frail cohort of seniors

We examined new users of osteoporosis drugs among seniors in Pennsylvania and found no evidence of healthy adherer bias on observed associations between adherence to treatment and non-vertebral fracture risk; we document fracture reduction with better adherence to bisphosphonates, yet no fracture reduction with better adherence to calcitonin or raloxifene

Comparative gastrointestinal safety of weekly oral bisphosphonates

Weekly bisphosphonates are the primary agents used to treat osteoporosis. Although these agents are generally well tolerated, serious gastrointestinal adverse events, including hospitalization for gastrointestinal bleed, may arise. We compared the gastrointestinal safety between weekly alendronate and weekly risedronate and found no important difference between new users of these agents

Patterns of Rotavirus Vaccine Uptake and Use in Privately-Insured US Infants, 2006-2010

Rotavirus vaccines are highly effective at preventing gastroenteritis in young children and are now universally recommended for infants in the US. We studied patterns of use of rotavirus vaccines among US infants with commercial insurance. We identified a large cohort of infants in the MarketScan Research Databases, 2006-2010. The analysis was restricted to infants residing in states without state-funded rotavirus vaccination programs. We computed summary statistics and used multivariable regression to assess the association between patient-, provider-, and ecologic-level variables of rotavirus vaccine receipt and series completion. Approximately 69% of 594,117 eligible infants received at least one dose of rotavirus vaccine from 2006-2010. Most infants received the rotavirus vaccines at the recommended ages, but more infants completed the series for monovalent rotavirus vaccine than pentavalent rotavirus vaccine or a mix of the vaccines (87% versus 79% versus 73%, P<0.001). In multivariable analyses, the strongest predictors of rotavirus vaccine series initiation and completion were receipt of the diphtheria, tetanus and acellular pertussis vaccine (Initiation: RR = 7.91, 95% CI = 7.69-8.13; Completion: RR = 1.26, 95% CI = 1.23-1.29), visiting a pediatrician versus family physician (Initiation: RR = 1.51, 95% CI = 1.49-1.52; Completion: RR = 1.13, 95% CI = 1.11-1.14), and living in a large metropolitan versus smaller metropolitan, urban, or rural area. We observed rapid diffusion of the rotavirus vaccine in routine practice; however, approximately one-fifth of infants did not receive at least one dose of vaccine as recently as 2010. Interventions to increase rotavirus vaccine coverage should consider targeting family physicians and encouraging completion of the vaccine series

Clinicians' caseload management behaviours as explanatory factors in patients' length of time on caseloads : a predictive multilevel study in paediatric community occupational therapy

Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Simple estimators of the intensity of seasonal occurrence

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Edwards's method is a widely used approach for fitting a sine curve to a time-series of monthly frequencies. From this fitted curve, estimates of the seasonal intensity of occurrence (i.e., peak-to-low ratio of the fitted curve) can be generated.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We discuss various approaches to the estimation of seasonal intensity assuming Edwards's periodic model, including maximum likelihood estimation (MLE), least squares, weighted least squares, and a new closed-form estimator based on a second-order moment statistic and non-transformed data. Through an extensive Monte Carlo simulation study, we compare the finite sample performance characteristics of the estimators discussed in this paper. Finally, all estimators and confidence interval procedures discussed are compared in a re-analysis of data on the seasonality of monocytic leukemia.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We find that Edwards's estimator is substantially biased, particularly for small numbers of events and very large or small amounts of seasonality. For the common setting of rare events and moderate seasonality, the new estimator proposed in this paper yields less finite sample bias and better mean squared error than either the MLE or weighted least squares. For large studies and strong seasonality, MLE or weighted least squares appears to be the optimal analytic method among those considered.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Edwards's estimator of the seasonal relative risk can exhibit substantial finite sample bias. The alternative estimators considered in this paper should be preferred.</p