Spatial heterogeneity in projected leprosy trends in India

Background: Leprosy is caused by infection with Mycobacterium leprae and is characterized by peripheral nerve damage and skin lesions. The disease is classified into paucibacillary (PB) and multibacillary (MB) leprosy. The 2012 London Declaration formulated the following targets for leprosy control: (1) global interruption of transmission or elimination by 2020, and (2) reduction of grade-2 disabilities in newly detected cases to below 1 per million population at a global level by 2020. Leprosy is treatable, but diagnosis, access to treatment and treatment adherence (all necessary to curtail transmission) represent major challenges. Globally, new case detection rates for leprosy have remained fairly stable in the past decade, with India responsible for more than half of cases reported annually. Methods: We analyzed publicly available data from the Indian Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, and fit linear mixed-effects regression models to leprosy case detection trends reported at the district level. We assessed correlation of the new district-level case detection rate for leprosy with several state-level regressors: TB incidence, BCG coverage, fraction of cases exhibiting grade 2 disability at diagnosis, fraction of cases in children, and fraction multibacillary. Results: Our analyses suggest an endemic disease in very slow decline, with substantial spatial heterogeneity at both district and state levels. Enhanced active case finding was associated with a higher case detection rate. Conclusions: Trend analysis of reported new detection rates from India does not support a thesis of rapid progress in leprosy control

Introduction of rubella-containing-vaccine to Madagascar: implications for roll-out and local elimination

Few countries in Africa currently include rubella-containing vaccination (RCV) in their immunization schedule. The Global Alliance for Vaccines Initiative (GAVI) recently opened a funding window that has motivated more widespread roll-out of RCV. As countries plan RCV introductions, an understanding of the existing burden, spatial patterns of vaccine coverage, and the impact of patterns of local extinction and reintroduction for rubella will be critical to developing effective programmes. As one of the first countries proposing RCV introduction in part with GAVI funding, Madagascar provides a powerful and timely case study. We analyse serological data from measles surveillance systems to characterize the epidemiology of rubella in Madagascar. Combining these results with data on measles vaccination delivery, we develop an age-structured model to simulate rubella vaccination scenarios and evaluate the dynamics of rubella and the burden of congenital rubella syndrome (CRS) across Madagascar. We additionally evaluate the drivers of spatial heterogeneity in age of infection to identify focal locations where vaccine surveillance should be strengthened and where challenges to successful vaccination introduction are expected. Our analyses indicate that characteristics of rubella in Madagascar are in line with global observations, with an average age of infection near 7 years, and an impact of frequent local extinction with reintroductions causing localized epidemics. Modelling results indicate that introduction of RCV into the routine programme alone may initially decrease rubella incidence but then result in cumulative increases in the burden of CRS in some regions (and transient increases in this burden in many regions). Deployment of RCV with regular supplementary campaigns will mitigate these outcomes. Results suggest that introduction of RCV offers a potential for elimination of rubella in Madagascar, but also emphasize both that targeted vaccination is likely to be a lynchpin of this success, and the public health vigilance that this introduction will require

Disentangling serology to elucidate henipa- and filovirus transmission in Madagascar fruit bats.

Bats are reservoirs for emerging human pathogens, including Hendra and Nipah henipaviruses and Ebola and Marburg filoviruses. These viruses demonstrate predictable patterns in seasonality and age structure across multiple systems; previous work suggests that they may circulate in Madagascar's endemic fruit bats, which are widely consumed as human food. We aimed to (a) document the extent of henipa- and filovirus exposure among Malagasy fruit bats, (b) explore seasonality in seroprevalence and serostatus in these bat populations and (c) compare mechanistic hypotheses for possible transmission dynamics underlying these data. To this end, we amassed and analysed a unique dataset documenting longitudinal serological henipa- and filovirus dynamics in three Madagascar fruit bat species. We uncovered serological evidence of exposure to Hendra-/Nipah-related henipaviruses in Eidolon dupreanum, Pteropus rufus and Rousettus madagascariensis, to Cedar-related henipaviruses in E. dupreanum and R. madagascariensis and to Ebola-related filoviruses in P. rufus and R. madagascariensis. We demonstrated significant seasonality in population-level seroprevalence and individual serostatus for multiple viruses across these species, linked to the female reproductive calendar. An age-structured subset of the data highlighted evidence of waning maternal antibodies in neonates, increasing seroprevalence in young and decreasing seroprevalence late in life. Comparison of mechanistic epidemiological models fit to these data offered support for transmission hypotheses permitting waning antibodies but retained immunity in adult-age bats. Our findings suggest that bats may seasonally modulate mechanisms of pathogen control, with consequences for population-level transmission. Additionally, we narrow the field of candidate transmission hypotheses by which bats are presumed to host and transmit potentially zoonotic viruses globally.National Geographic Society (Young Explorer’s and Waitt grants to CEB) PIVOT (research grant to CEB) National Science Foundation (Dissertation Improvement Grant and Graduate Research Fellowship to CEB) Princeton University (Walbridge Research Fund Grant to CEB; Center for Health and Well-being Grant to CJM) a Biological Defense Research Directorate of the Naval Medical Research Center and the Department of Health and Human Services, National Institutes of Health (research grant AI054715 to CCB) Queensland Government Accelerate Postdoctoral Research Fellowship to AJP The Alborada Trust (JLNW

Jet production in charged current deep inelastic e⁺p scatteringat HERA

The production rates and substructure of jets have been studied in charged current deep inelastic e⁺p scattering for Q² > 200 GeV² with the ZEUS detector at HERA using an integrated luminosity of 110.5 pb⁻¹. Inclusive jet cross sections are presented for jets with transverse energies E_{T}^{jet} > 5 GeV. Measurements of the mean subjet multiplicity, 〈n_{sbj}〉, of the inclusive jet sample are presented. Predictions based on parton-shower Monte Carlo models and next-to-leading-order QCD calculations are compared to the measurements. The value of α_{s} (M_{z}), determined from 〈n_{sbj}〉 at y_{cut} = 10⁻² for jets with 25 < E_{T}^{jet} < 119 GeV, is α_{s} (M_{z}) = 0.1202 ± 0.0052 (stat.)_{-0.0019}^{+0.0060} (syst.)_{-0.0053}^{+0.0065} (th.). The mean subjet multiplicity as a function of Q² is found to be consistent with that measured in NC DIS

Multijet production in neutral current deep inelastic scattering at HERA and determination of α_{s}

Multijet production rates in neutral current deep inelastic scattering have been measured in the range of exchanged boson virtualities 10 5 GeV and –1 < η_{LAB}^{jet} < 2.5. Next-to-leading-order QCD calculations describe the data well. The value of the strong coupling constant α_{s} (M_{z}), determined from the ratio of the trijet to dijet cross sections, is α_{s} (M_{z}) = 0.1179 ± 0.0013 (stat.)_{-0.0046}^{+0.0028}(exp.)_{-0.0046}^{+0.0028}(th.)

Author Correction: Ecology, evolution and spillover of coronaviruses from bats.

In the past two decades, three coronaviruses with ancestral origins in bats have emerged and caused widespread outbreaks in humans, including severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Since the first SARS epidemic in 2002–2003, the appreciation of bats as key hosts of zoonotic coronaviruses has advanced rapidly. More than 4,000 coronavirus sequences from 14 bat families have been identified, yet the true diversity of bat coronaviruses is probably much greater. Given that bats are the likely evolutionary source for several human coronaviruses, including strains that cause mild upper respiratory tract disease, their role in historic and future pandemics requires ongoing investigation. We review and integrate information on bat–coronavirus interactions at the molecular, tissue, host and population levels. We identify critical gaps in knowledge of bat coronaviruses, which relate to spillover and pandemic risk, including the pathways to zoonotic spillover, the infection dynamics within bat reservoir hosts, the role of prior adaptation in intermediate hosts for zoonotic transmission and the viral genotypes or traits that predict zoonotic capacity and pandemic potential. Filling these knowledge gaps may help prevent the next pandemic

Applications of VirScan to broad serological profiling of bat reservoirs for emerging zoonoses

IntroductionBats are important providers of ecosystem services such as pollination, seed dispersal, and insect control but also act as natural reservoirs for virulent zoonotic viruses. Bats host multiple viruses that cause life-threatening pathology in other animals and humans but, themselves, experience limited pathological disease from infection. Despite bats’ importance as reservoirs for several zoonotic viruses, we know little about the broader viral diversity that they host. Bat virus surveillance efforts are challenged by difficulties of field capture and the limited scope of targeted PCR- or ELISA-based molecular and serological detection. Additionally, virus shedding is often transient, thus also limiting insights gained from nucleic acid testing of field specimens. Phage ImmunoPrecipitation Sequencing (PhIP-Seq), a broad serological tool used previously to comprehensively profile viral exposure history in humans, offers an exciting prospect for viral surveillance efforts in wildlife, including bats.MethodsHere, for the first time, we apply PhIP-Seq technology to bat serum, using a viral peptide library originally designed to simultaneously assay exposures to the entire human virome.ResultsUsing VirScan, we identified past exposures to 57 viral genera—including betacoronaviruses, henipaviruses, lyssaviruses, and filoviruses—in semi-captive Pteropus alecto and to nine viral genera in captive Eonycteris spelaea. Consistent with results from humans, we find that both total peptide hits (the number of enriched viral peptides in our library) and the corresponding number of inferred past virus exposures in bat hosts were correlated with poor bat body condition scores and increased with age. High and low body condition scores were associated with either seropositive or seronegative status for different viruses, though in general, virus-specific age-seroprevalence curves defied assumptions of lifelong immunizing infection, suggesting that many bat viruses may circulate via complex transmission dynamics.DiscussionOverall, our work emphasizes the utility of applying biomedical tools, like PhIP-Seq, first developed for humans to viral surveillance efforts in wildlife, while highlighting opportunities for taxon-specific improvements

An NLO QCD analysis of inclusive cross-section and jet-production data from the ZEUS experiment

The ZEUS inclusive differential cross-section data from HERA, for charged and neutral current processes taken with e+ and e- beams, together with differential cross-section data on inclusive jet production in e+ p scattering and dijet production in \gamma p scattering, have been used in a new NLO QCD analysis to extract the parton distribution functions of the proton. The input of jet data constrains the gluon and allows an accurate extraction of \alpha_s(M_Z) at NLO; \alpha_s(M_Z) = 0.1183 \pm 0.0028(exp.) \pm 0.0008(model) An additional uncertainty from the choice of scales is estimated as \pm 0.005. This is the first extraction of \alpha_s(M_Z) from HERA data alone.Comment: 37 pages, 14 figures, to be submitted to EPJC. PDFs available at http://durpdg.dur.ac.uk/hepdata in LHAPDFv

Measurement of inclusive D*+- and associated dijet cross sections in photoproduction at HERA

Inclusive photoproduction of D*+- mesons has been measured for photon-proton centre-of-mass energies in the range 130 < W < 280 GeV and a photon virtuality Q^2 < 1 GeV^2. The data sample used corresponds to an integrated luminosity of 37 pb^-1. Total and differential cross sections as functions of the D* transverse momentum and pseudorapidity are presented in restricted kinematical regions and the data are compared with next-to-leading order (NLO) perturbative QCD calculations using the "massive charm" and "massless charm" schemes. The measured cross sections are generally above the NLO calculations, in particular in the forward (proton) direction. The large data sample also allows the study of dijet production associated with charm. A significant resolved as well as a direct photon component contribute to the cross section. Leading order QCD Monte Carlo calculations indicate that the resolved contribution arises from a significant charm component in the photon. A massive charm NLO parton level calculation yields lower cross sections compared to the measured results in a kinematic region where the resolved photon contribution is significant.Comment: 32 pages including 6 figure

Measurement of event shapes in deep inelastic scattering at HERA

Inclusive event-shape variables have been measured in the current region of the Breit frame for neutral current deep inelastic ep scattering using an integrated luminosity of 45.0 pb^-1 collected with the ZEUS detector at HERA. The variables studied included thrust, jet broadening and invariant jet mass. The kinematic range covered was 10 < Q^2 < 20,480 GeV^2 and 6.10^-4 < x < 0.6, where Q^2 is the virtuality of the exchanged boson and x is the Bjorken variable. The Q dependence of the shape variables has been used in conjunction with NLO perturbative calculations and the Dokshitzer-Webber non-perturbative corrections (`power corrections') to investigate the validity of this approach.Comment: 7+25 pages, 6 figure