Multivariate discrimination and the Higgs + W/Z search

A systematic method for optimizing multivariate discriminants is developed and applied to the important example of a light Higgs boson search at the Tevatron and the LHC. The Significance Improvement Characteristic (SIC), defined as the signal efficiency of a cut or multivariate discriminant divided by the square root of the background efficiency, is shown to be an extremely powerful visualization tool. SIC curves demonstrate numerical instabilities in the multivariate discriminants, show convergence as the number of variables is increased, and display the sensitivity to the optimal cut values. For our application, we concentrate on Higgs boson production in association with a W or Z boson with H -> bb and compare to the irreducible standard model background, Z/W + bb. We explore thousands of experimentally motivated, physically motivated, and unmotivated single variable discriminants. Along with the standard kinematic variables, a number of new ones, such as twist, are described which should have applicability to many processes. We find that some single variables, such as the pull angle, are weak discriminants, but when combined with others they provide important marginal improvement. We also find that multiple Higgs boson-candidate mass measures, such as from mild and aggressively trimmed jets, when combined may provide additional discriminating power. Comparing the significance improvement from our variables to those used in recent CDF and DZero searches, we find that a 10-20% improvement in significance against Z/W + bb is possible. Our analysis also suggests that the H + W/Z channel with H -> bb is also viable at the LHC, without requiring a hard cut on the W/Z transverse momentum.Comment: 41 pages, 5 tables, 29 figure

Unrelated Helpers in a Primitively Eusocial Wasp: Is Helping Tailored Towards Direct Fitness?

The paper wasp Polistes dominulus is unique among the social insects in that nearly one-third of co-foundresses are completely unrelated to the dominant individual whose offspring they help to rear and yet reproductive skew is high. These unrelated subordinates stand to gain direct fitness through nest inheritance, raising the question of whether their behaviour is adaptively tailored towards maximizing inheritance prospects. Unusually, in this species, a wealth of theory and empirical data allows us to predict how unrelated subordinates should behave. Based on these predictions, here we compare helping in subordinates that are unrelated or related to the dominant wasp across an extensive range of field-based behavioural contexts. We find no differences in foraging effort, defense behaviour, aggression or inheritance rank between unrelated helpers and their related counterparts. Our study provides no evidence, across a number of behavioural scenarios, that the behaviour of unrelated subordinates is adaptively modified to promote direct fitness interests

Environmental and Parental Influences on Offspring Health and Growth in Great Tits (Parus major)

PMCID: PMC3728352This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited

Protecting eyewitness evidence: Examining the efficacy of a self-administered interview tool

Given the crucial role of eyewitness evidence, statements should be obtained as soon as possible after an incident. This is not always achieved due to demands on police resources. Two studies trace the development of a new tool, the Self-Administered Interview (SAI), designed to elicit a comprehensive initial statement. In Study 1, SAI participants reported more correct details than participants who provided a free recall account, and performed at the same level as participants given a Cognitive Interview. In Study 2, participants viewed a simulated crime and half recorded their statement using the SAI. After a delay of 1 week, all participants completed a free recall test. SAI participants recalled more correct details in the delayed recall task than control participants

Generalized Theorems for Nonlinear State Space Reconstruction

Takens' theorem (1981) shows how lagged variables of a single time series can be used as proxy variables to reconstruct an attractor for an underlying dynamic process. State space reconstruction (SSR) from single time series has been a powerful approach for the analysis of the complex, non-linear systems that appear ubiquitous in the natural and human world. The main shortcoming of these methods is the phenomenological nature of attractor reconstructions. Moreover, applied studies show that these single time series reconstructions can often be improved ad hoc by including multiple dynamically coupled time series in the reconstructions, to provide a more mechanistic model. Here we provide three analytical proofs that add to the growing literature to generalize Takens' work and that demonstrate how multiple time series can be used in attractor reconstructions. These expanded results (Takens' theorem is a special case) apply to a wide variety of natural systems having parallel time series observations for variables believed to be related to the same dynamic manifold. The potential information leverage provided by multiple embeddings created from different combinations of variables (and their lags) can pave the way for new applied techniques to exploit the time-limited, but parallel observations of natural systems, such as coupled ecological systems, geophysical systems, and financial systems. This paper aims to justify and help open this potential growth area for SSR applications in the natural sciences

Knee-clicks and visual traits indicate fighting ability in eland antelopes: multiple messages and back-up signals

Abstract Background Given the costs of signalling, why do males often advertise their fighting ability to rivals using several signals rather than just one? Multiple signalling theories have developed largely in studies of sexual signals, and less is known about their applicability to intra-sexual communication. We here investigate the evolutionary basis for the intricate agonistic signalling system in eland antelopes, paying particular attention to the evolutionary phenomenon of loud knee-clicking. Results A principal components analysis separated seven male traits into three groups. The dominant frequency of the knee-clicking sound honestly indicated body size, a main determinant of fighting ability. In contrast, the dewlap size increased with estimated age rather than body size, suggesting that, by magnifying the silhouette of older bulls disproportionately, the dewlap acts as an indicator of age-related traits such as fighting experience. Facemask darkness, frontal hairbrush size and body greyness aligned with a third underlying variable, presumed to be androgen-related aggression. A longitudinal study provided independent support of these findings. Conclusion The results show that the multiple agonistic signals in eland reflect three separate components of fighting ability: (1) body size, (2) age and (3) presumably androgen-related aggression, which is reflected in three backup signals. The study highlights how complex agonistic signalling systems can evolve through the simultaneous action of several selective forces, each of which favours multiple signals. Specifically, loud knee-clicking is discovered to be an honest signal of body size, providing an exceptional example of the potential for non-vocal acoustic communication in mammals.</p

The international synchronisation of business cycles: the role of animal spirits

Business cycles among industrial countries are highly correlated. We develop a two-country behavioral macroeconomic model where the synchronization of the business cycle is produced endogenously. The main channel of synchronization occurs through a propagation of “animal spirits”, i.e. waves of optimism and pessimism that become correlated internationally. We find that this propagation occurs with relatively low levels of trade integration. We do not need a correlation of exogenous shocks to generate synchronization. We also empirically test the main predictions of the model

Variance in Centrality within Rock Hyrax Social Networks Predicts Adult Longevity

BACKGROUND: In communal mammals the levels of social interaction among group members vary considerably. In recent years, biologists have realized that within-group interactions may affect survival of the group members. Several recent studies have demonstrated that the social integration of adult females is positively associated with infant survival, and female longevity is affected by the strength and stability of the individual social bonds. Our aim was to determine the social factors that influence adult longevity in social mammals. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: As a model system, we studied the social rock hyrax (Procavia capensis), a plural breeder with low reproductive skew, whose groups are mainly composed of females. We applied network theory using 11 years of behavioral data to quantify the centrality of individuals within groups, and found adult longevity to be inversely correlated to the variance in centrality. In other words, animals in groups with more equal associations lived longer. Individual centrality was not correlated with longevity, implying that social tension may affect all group members and not only the weakest or less connected ones. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our novel findings support previous studies emphasizing the adaptive value of social associations and the consequences of inequality among adults within social groups. However, contrary to previous studies, we suggest that it is not the number or strength of associations that an adult individual has (i.e. centrality) that is important, but the overall configuration of social relationships within the group (i.e. centrality SD) that is a key factor in influencing longevity

Early Warning Signals for Critical Transitions: A Generalized Modeling Approach

Critical transitions are sudden, often irreversible, changes that can occur in a large variety of complex systems; signals that warn of critical transitions are therefore highly desirable. We propose a new method for early warning signals that integrates multiple sources of information and data about the system through the framework of a generalized model. We demonstrate our proposed approach through several examples, including a previously published fisheries model. We regard our method as complementary to existing early warning signals, taking an approach of intermediate complexity between model-free approaches and fully parameterized simulations. One potential advantage of our approach is that, under appropriate conditions, it may reduce the amount of time series data required for a robust early warning signal

Elevated Ratio of Urinary Metabolites of Thromboxane and Prostacyclin Is Associated with Adverse Cardiovascular Events in ADAPT

Results from prevention trials, including the Alzheimer's Disease Anti-inflammatory Prevention Trial (ADAPT), have fueled discussion about the cardiovascular (CV) risks associated with non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs). We tested the hypotheses that (i) adverse CV events reported among ADAPT participants (aged 70 years and older) are associated with increased ratio of urine 11-dehydrothromboxane B2 (Tx-M) to 2′3-donor–6-keto-PGF1 (PGI-M) attributable to NSAID treatments; (ii) coincident use of aspirin (ASA) would attenuate NSAID-induced changes in Tx-M/PGI-M ratio; and (iii) use of NSAIDs and/or ASA would not alter urine or plasma concentrations of F2-isoprostanes (IsoPs), in vivo biomarkers of free radical damage. We quantified urine Tx-M and PGI-M, and urine and plasma F2-IsoPs from 315 ADAPT participants using stable isotope dilution assays with gas chromatography/mass spectrometry, and analyzed these data by randomized drug assignment and self-report compliance as well as ASA use. Adverse CV events were significantly associated with higher urine Tx-M/PGI-M ratio, which seemed to derive mainly from lowered PGI-M. Participants taking ASA alone had reduced urine Tx-M/PGI-M compared to no ASA or NSAID; however, participants taking NSAIDs plus ASA did not have reduced urine Tx-M/PGI-M ratio compared to NSAIDs alone. Neither NSAID nor ASA use altered plasma or urine F2-IsoPs. These data suggest a possible mechanism for the increased risk of CV events reported in ADAPT participants assigned to NSAIDs, and suggest that the changes in the Tx-M/PGI-M ratio was not substantively mitigated by coincident use of ASA in individuals 70 years or older