A reliable rainfall–runoff model for flood forecasting: review and application to a semi-urbanized watershed at high flood risk in Italy

Many rainfall–runoff (RR) models are available in the scientific literature. Selecting the best structure and parameterization for a model is not straightforward and depends on a broad number of factors, including climatic conditions, catchment characteristics, temporal/spatial resolution and model objectives. In this study, the RR model 'Modello Idrologico Semi-Distribuito in continuo' (MISDc), mainly developed for flood simulation in Mediterranean basins, was tested on the Seveso basin, which is stressed several times a year by flooding events mainly caused by excessive urbanization. The work summarizes a compendium of the MISDc applications over a wide range of catchments in European countries and then it analyses the performances over the Seveso basin. The results show a good fit behaviour during both the calibration and the validation periods with a Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient index larger than 0.9. Moreover, the median volume and peak discharge errors calculated on several flood events were less than 25%. In conclusion, we can be assured that the reliability and computational speed could make the MISDc model suitable for flood estimation in many catchments of different geographical contexts and land use characteristics. Moreover, MISDc will also be useful for future support of real-time decision-making for flood risk management in the Seveso basin

Cultivation area affects the presence of fungal communities and secondary metabolites in Italian durum wheat grains

In this study, durum wheat kernels harvested in three climatically different Italian cultivation areas (Emilia Romagna, Umbria and Sardinia) in 2015, were analyzed with a combination of different isolation methods to determine their fungal communities, with a focus on Fusarium head blight (FHB) complex composition, and to detect fungal secondary metabolites in the grains. The genus Alternaria was the main component of durum wheat mycobiota in all investigated regions, with the Central Italian cultivation area showing the highest incidence of this fungal genus and of its secondary metabolites. Fusarium was the second most prevalent genus of the fungal community in all cultivation environments, even if regional differences in species composition were detected. In particular, Northern areas showed the highest Fusarium incidence, followed by Central and then Southern cultivation areas. Focusing on the FHB complex, a predominance of Fusarium poae, in particular in Northern and Central cultivation areas, was found. Fusarium graminearum, in the analyzed year, was mainly detected in Emilia Romagna. Because of the highest Fusarium incidence, durum wheat harvested in the Northern cultivation area showed the highest presence of Fusarium secondary metabolites. These results show that durum wheat cultivated in Northern Italy may be subject to a higher FHB infection risk and to Fusarium mycotoxins accumulation

Toward the estimation of river discharge variations using MODIS data in ungauged basins

This study investigates the capability of the Moderate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) to estimate river discharge, even for ungauged sites. Because of its frequent revisits (as little as every 3 h) and adequate spatial resolution (250 m), MODIS bands 1 and 2 have significant potential for mapping the extent of flooded areas and estimating river discharge even for medium-sized basins. Specifically, the different behaviour of water and land in the Near Infrared (NIR) portion of the electromagnetic spectrum is exploited by computing the ratio (C/M) of the MODIS channel 2 reflectance values between two pixels located within (M) and outside (C), but close to, the river. The values of C/M increase with the presence of water and, hence, with discharge. Moreover, in order to reduce the noise effects due to atmospheric contribution, an exponential smoothing filter is applied, thus obtaining C/M⁎. Time series of hourly mean flow velocity and discharge between 2005 and 2011 measured at four gauging stations located along the Po river (Northern Italy) are employed for testing the capability of C/M⁎ to estimate discharge/flow velocity. Specifically, the meanders and urban areas are considered the best locations for the position of the pixels M and C, respectively. Considering the optimal pixels, the agreement between C/M⁎ and discharge/flow velocity is fairly good with values in the range of 0.65–0.77. Additionally, the application to ungauged sites is tested by deriving a unique regional relationship between C/M⁎ and flow velocity valid for the whole Po river and providing only a slight deterioration of the performance. Finally, the sensitivity of the results to the selection of the C and M pixels is investigated by randomly changing their location. Also in this case, the agreement with in situ observations of velocity is fairly satisfactory (r ~ 0.6). The obtained results demonstrate the capability of MODIS to monitor discharge (and flow velocity). Therefore, its application for a larger number of sites worldwide will be the object of future studies

Pathogenic Aβ A2V versus protective Aβ A2T mutation : early stage aggregation and membrane interaction

We investigated the effects of punctual A-to-V and A-to-T mutations in the amyloid precursor protein APP, corresponding to position 2 of A\u3b21\u201342. Those mutations had opposite effects on the onset and progression of Alzheimer disease, the former inducing early AD pathology and the latter protecting against the onset of the disease. We applied Static and Dynamic Light Scattering and Circular Dichroism, to study the different mutants in the early stages of the aggregation process, essential for the disease. Comparative results showed that the aggregation pathways differ in the kinetics and extent of the process, in the size of the aggregates and in the evolution of the secondary structure, resulting in fibrils of different morphology, as seen by AFM. Mutated peptides had comparable toxic effects on N2a cells. Moreover, as assessed by X-ray scattering, all of them displayed disordering effects on the internal structure of mixed phospholipids-gangliosides model membranes

Human skeletal muscle fibre contractile properties and proteomic profile: Adaptations to 3 weeks of unilateral lower limb suspension and active recovery

Following disuse, muscle fibre function goes through adaptations such as a loss of specific force (PO/CSA) and an increase in unloaded shortening velocity, which could be a result of both quantitative changes (i.e. atrophy) and qualitative changes in protein pattern. The underlying mechanisms remain to be clarified. In addition, little is known about the recovery of muscle mass and strength following disuse. In the present study, we report an extensive dataset describing, in detail,the functional and protein content adaptations of skeletal muscle in response to both disuse and re-training. Eight young healthy subjects were subjected to 3 weeks of unilateral lower limb suspension (ULLS), a widely used human model of disuse skeletal muscle atrophy. Needle biopsies samples were taken from the vastus lateralis muscle Pre-ULLS, Post-ULLS and after 3 weeks of recovery during which heavy resistance training was performed. After disuse, cross-sectional area (CSA), PO/CSA and myosin concentration (MC) decreased in both type 1 and 2A skinned muscle fibres. After recovery, CSA and MC returned to levels comparable to those observed before disuse, whereas Po/CSA and unloaded shortening velocity reached a higher level. Myosin heavy chain isoform composition of muscle samples did not differ among the experimental groups. To study the mechanisms underlying such adaptations, a two-dimensional proteomic analysis was performed. ULLS induced a reduction of myofibrillar, metabolic (glycolytic and oxidative) and anti-oxidant defence system protein content. Resistance training was very effective in counteracting ULLS-induced alterations, indicating that long-term ULLS did not prevent the positive effect of exercise on human muscle. © 2015 The Physiological Society

Estimating irrigation water use over the contiguous United States by combining satellite and reanalysis soil moisture data

Effective agricultural water management requires accurate and timely information on the availability and use of irrigation water. However, most existing information on irrigation water use (IWU) lacks the objectivity and spatiotemporal representativeness needed for operational water management and meaningful characterization of land–climate interactions. Although optical remote sensing has been used to map the area affected by irrigation, it does not physically allow for the estimation of the actual amount of irrigation water applied. On the other hand, microwave observations of the moisture content in the top soil layer are directly influenced by agricultural irrigation practices and thus potentially allow for the quantitative estimation of IWU. In this study, we combine surface soil moisture (SM) retrievals from the spaceborne SMAP, AMSR2 and ASCAT microwave sensors with modeled soil moisture from MERRA-2 reanalysis to derive monthly IWU dynamics over the contiguous United States (CONUS) for the period 2013–2016. The methodology is driven by the assumption that the hydrology formulation of the MERRA-2 model does not account for irrigation, while the remotely sensed soil moisture retrievals do contain an irrigation signal. For many CONUS irrigation hot spots, the estimated spatial irrigation patterns show good agreement with a reference data set on irrigated areas. Moreover, in intensively irrigated areas, the temporal dynamics of observed IWU is meaningful with respect to ancillary data on local irrigation practices. State-aggregated mean IWU volumes derived from the combination of SMAP and MERRA-2 soil moisture show a good correlation with statistically reported state-level irrigation water withdrawals (IWW) but systematically underestimate them. We argue that this discrepancy can be mainly attributed to the coarse spatial resolution of the employed satellite soil moisture retrievals, which fails to resolve local irrigation practices. Consequently, higher-resolution soil moisture data are needed to further enhance the accuracy of IWU mapping.</p

El aceite de oliva en nutrición clínica

The different beneficial effects of olive oil have a rational and scientific basis due to advances in the knowledge of lipid metabolism. The evidence that for a similar plasma cholesterol concentration, the rate of cardiovascular deaths is lower in the Mediterranean countries than in other ones, suggests that the beneficial effects of olive oil may not be only related to the known quantitative changes in plasma lipoproteins, but also to other, as yet unknown or little known, anti-atherogenic factors. The peculiarities of olive oil in terms of certain biochemical, biological and nutritional characteristics, open up a field of application in normal clinical practice. The benefits of olive oil in clinical nutrition correlate with its action on lipid metabolism and the cardiovascular system. Even a moderate increase in the ingestion of monounsaturated fats and a reduction in the ingestion of carbohydrates could be more advantageous in those patients with diabetes and hypertriglyceridemia and/or in those where loss of weight is not a priority. Different studies have also demonstrated the benefits of olive oil in different inflammatory and autoimmune diseases, such as rheumatoid arthritis. The chemical composition of extra virgin olive oil contributes to daily requirements of essential fatty acids and active antioxidant nutrients in vitamin E deficiency. This particular and well-balanced situation [oleic acid (18:1 n -9) and minor components in an ideal ratio] undoubtedly has a significant relevance in human clinical nutrition.Los avances en el conocimiento del metabolismo lipídico están permitiendo establecer las bases científicas de los efectos saludables del aceite de oliva. En los países del área Mediterránea, la mortalidad cardiovascular es menor que en otros, aunque la concentración de colesterol en sangre es similar. Es muy probable que la capacidad cardio-protectora del aceite de oliva se relacione con otros factores de riesgo, algunos de los cuales son poco o completamente desconocidos. Las propiedades bioquímicas, biológicas y nutricionales del aceite de oliva son peculiares y permiten su aplicación en la nutrición clínica. Los beneficios del aceite de oliva se correlacionan con su acción sobre el metabolismo lipídico y el sistema cardiovascular. Un aumento moderado en la ingesta de grasa monoinsaturada (aceite de oliva), a expensas de los carbohidratos, es la recomendación en pacientes con diabetes e hipertrigliceridemia. En nutrición clínica, el aceite de oliva también tiene efectos beneficiosos en enfermedades relacionadas con respuestas inflamatorias y autoinmunes, como la artritis reumatoide. La composición química del aceite de oliva virgen extra contribuye a las necesidades diarias de ácidos grasos esenciales y de antioxidantes, especialmente en situaciones patológicas de deficiencia en vitamina E. Sin duda, el aceite de oliva (virgen extra) tiene máxima relevancia, por su contenido de ácido oleico (18:1 n -9) y compuestos minoritarios, en la nutrición clínica

The impact of habitat quality inside protected areas on distribution of the Dominican Republic’s last endemic non-volant land mammals

The Hispaniolan solenodon, Solenodon paradoxus, and Hispaniolan hutia, Plagiodontia aedium, are the Dominican Republic’s only surviving endemic non-volant land mammals, and are high priorities for conservation. The country has an extensive protected area (PA) network designed to maintain habitats and benefit biodiversity, but which faces significant anthropogenic threats likely to detrimentally impact both species. We examined how differences in habitats, forest structure, topography, and human activity influence presence of solenodons and hutias across the Dominican Republic. Systematic surveys of seven PAs were undertaken to record indirect signs, with presence-absence data analyzed using a multi-model inference approach incorporating ecological variables from both field and GIS data. Solenodons were detected relatively frequently, whereas detections of hutias were uncommon. Lower elevations, increased surrounding tree cover, canopy closure, and reduced levels of low vegetation are all associated with increased probability of detecting solenodons, whereas agriculture and mangrove represent poor-quality habitat. Increased canopy closure, tree basal area (indicating older-growth forest), and increased rock substrate (providing more den sites) are associated with increased probability of detecting hutias. Our findings indicated that human activities within PAs are likely to negatively affect both species, and conservation activities should focus on preventing encroachment and conversion of forest to agriculture to maintain high-quality forest habitats. El solenodonte de la Hispaniola, Solenodon paradoxus, y la hutia de la Hispaniola, Plagiodontia aedium, son los únicos mamíferos endémicos terrestres no voladores que sobreviven en la República Dominicana, su conservación es de alta prioridad. El país tiene una extensa red de áreas protegidas (AP) diseñada para mantener hábitats y beneficiar la biodiversidad, pero se enfrenta a amenazas antropogénicas. Sin embargo, no existen datos cuantitativos para evaluar las presiones antropogénicas que amenazan a los solenodontes y las hutias. Examinamos cómo las diferencias en los hábitats, la estructura del bosque, la topografía y la actividad humana influyen la presencia de solenodontes y hutias en toda la República Dominicana. Se realizaron encuestas sistemáticas de siete AP para registrar los signos indirectos de ambas especies, los datos de presencia/ausencia fueron analizados mediante inferencia multimodelo que incorpora variables ecológicas de los datos de campo y Sistema de Información Geográfica. Los Solenodontes se detectaron relativamente frecuentemente, mientras que las detecciones de hutias fueron menos comunes. Las elevaciones más bajas, el aumento de la cubierta arbórea circundante, el cierre del dosel y los niveles reducidos de vegetación baja se asocian con una mayor probabilidad de detectar solenodones. Mientras que la agricultura y los manglares representan un hábitat de mala calidad para el solenodonte. Aumento del cierre del dosel, área basal del árbol (que indica un bosque más antiguo) y un sustrato con mayor proporcion de roca (que proporciona más sitios para madrigueras) se asocian con una mayor probabilidad de detectar hutias. Nuestros hallazgos indican que las actividades humanas dentro de las AP pueden afectar negativamente a ambas especies. Las actividades de conservación deberían enfocarse en mantener hábitats forestales de alta calidad por medio de prevenir la invasión y la conversión de los bosques a agricultura

UGC 7388: a galaxy with two tidal loops

We present the results of spectroscopic and morphological studies of the galaxy UGC7388 with the 8.1-m Gemini North telescope. Judging by its observed characteristics, UGC7388 is a giant late-type spiral galaxy seen almost edge-on. The main body of the galaxy is surrounded by two faint (\mu(B) ~ 24 and \mu(B) ~ 25.5) extended (~20-30 kpc) loop-like structures. A large-scale rotation of the brighter loop about the main galaxy has been detected. We discuss the assumption that the tidal disruption of a relatively massive companion is observed in the case of UGC7388. A detailed study and modeling of the observed structure of this unique galaxy can give important information about the influence of the absorption of massive companions on the galactic disks and about the structure of the dark halo around UGC7388.Comment: 8 pages, 5 figure

Formation of a polar-ring galaxy in a galaxy merger

We numerically investigate stellar and gas dynamics in star-forming and dissipative galaxy mergers between two disk galaxies with specific orbital configurations. We find that violent relaxation combined with gaseous dissipation in galaxy merging transforms two disk galaxies into one S0 galaxy with polar-rings: Both the central S0-like host and the polar-ring component in a polar-ring galaxy are originally disk galaxies. We also find that morphology of the developed polar-rings reflects both the initial orbit configuration of galaxy merging and the initial mass ratio of the two merger progenitor disk galaxies. Based upon these results, we discuss the origin of the fundamental observational properties of polar-ring galaxies, such as the prevalence of S0 galaxies among polar-ring galaxies, the rarity of polar-ring galaxies among S0 galaxies, the dichotomy between narrow polar-rings and annular ones, shapes of polar-ring warps, and an appreciably larger amount of interstellar gas in the polar-ring component.Comment: 42 pages, 19 figures, ApJ in pres