Exploring long-term electrification pathway dynamics: a case study of Ethiopia

The Open Source Spatial Electrification Tool (OnSSET) is extended to provide a long-term geospatial electrification analysis of Ethiopia, focusing on the role of grid- and off-grid technologies to increase residential electricity access under different scenarios. Furthermore, the model explores issues of compatibility between the electricity supply technologies over time. Six potential scenarios towards universal access to electricity in the country are examined based on three pathways; the Ambition pathway sees high demand growth and universal access achieved by 2025, the Slow Down pathway follows a lower demand growth with a slower electrification rate and with a higher share of off-grid technologies, and the Big Business pathway prioritizes grid electricity first for the industrial sector, leading to slower residential electrification. The results show a large focus on grid extension and stand-alone PV deployment for least-cost electrification in case of low grid-generation costs and uninhibited grid expansion. However, in case of a slower grid rollout rate and high demand growth, a more dynamic evolution of the supply system is seen, where mini-grids play an important role in transitional electrification. Similarly, in the case where grid electricity generation comes at a higher cost, mini-grids prove to be cost-competitive with the centralized grid in many areas. Finally, we also show that transitional mini-grids, which are later incorporated into the centralized grid, risk increasing the investments significantly during the periods when these are integrated and mini-grid standards are not successfully implemented. In all cases, existing barriers to decentralized technologies must be removed to ensure off-grid technologies are deployed and potentially integrated with the centralized grid as needed

Quantifying full phenological event distributions reveals simultaneous advances, temporal stability and delays in spring and autumn migration timing in long-distance migratory birds

Acknowledgements We thank all Fair Isle Bird Observatory staff and volunteers for help with data collection and acknowledge the foresight of George Waterston and Ken Williamson in instigating the observatory and census methodology. We thank all current and previous directors of Fair Isle Bird Observatory Trust for their contributions, particularly Dave Okill and Mike Wood for their stalwart support for the long-term data collection and for the current analyses. Dawn Balmer and Ian Newton provided helpful guidance on manuscript drafts. We thank Ally Phillimore and two anonymous referees for helpful comments. This study would have been impossible without the Fair Isle community's invaluable support and patience over many decades, which is very gratefully acknowledged. WTSM and JMR designed and undertook analyses, wrote the paper and contributed to data collection and compilation, MB contributed to analysis and editing, all other authors oversaw and undertook data collection and compilation and contributed to editing.Peer reviewedPostprin

Lifshitz transition enabling superconducting dome around the quantum critical point in TiSe2_2

Superconductivity often emerges as a dome around a quantum critical point (QCP) where long-range order is suppressed to zero temperature. So far, this has been mostly studied in magnetically ordered materials. By contrast, the interplay between charge order and superconductivity at a QCP is not fully understood. Here, we present resistance measurements proving that a dome of superconductivity surrounds the charge-density-wave (CDW) QCP in pristine samples of 1$T$-TiSe$_2$ tuned with hydrostatic pressure. Furthermore, we use quantum oscillation measurements to show that the superconductivity sets in at a Lifshitz transition in the electronic band structure. We use density functional theory to identify the Fermi pockets enabling superconductivity: large electron and hole pockets connected by the CDW wave vector $\vec{Q}$ which emerge upon partial suppression of the zero-pressure CDW gap. Hence, we conclude that superconductivity is of interband type enabled by the presence of hole and electron bands connected by the CDW $\vec{Q}$ vector. Earlier calculations show that interband interactions are repulsive, which suggests that unconventional s$_{\pm}$ superconductivity is realised in TiSe$_2$ - similar to the iron pnictides. These results highlight the importance of Lifshitz transitions in realising unconventional superconductivity and help understand its interaction with CDW order in numerous materials.Comment: 21 pages, 5 figure

Colliding Worlds: Asteroid research and the legitimization of war in space

Accepted versio

Effectiveness of a national quality improvement programme to improve survival after emergency abdominal surgery (EPOCH): a stepped-wedge cluster-randomised trial

Background: Emergency abdominal surgery is associated with poor patient outcomes. We studied the effectiveness of a national quality improvement (QI) programme to implement a care pathway to improve survival for these patients. Methods: We did a stepped-wedge cluster-randomised trial of patients aged 40 years or older undergoing emergency open major abdominal surgery. Eligible UK National Health Service (NHS) hospitals (those that had an emergency general surgical service, a substantial volume of emergency abdominal surgery cases, and contributed data to the National Emergency Laparotomy Audit) were organised into 15 geographical clusters and commenced the QI programme in a random order, based on a computer-generated random sequence, over an 85-week period with one geographical cluster commencing the intervention every 5 weeks from the second to the 16th time period. Patients were masked to the study group, but it was not possible to mask hospital staff or investigators. The primary outcome measure was mortality within 90 days of surgery. Analyses were done on an intention-to-treat basis. This study is registered with the ISRCTN registry, number ISRCTN80682973. Findings: Treatment took place between March 3, 2014, and Oct 19, 2015. 22 754 patients were assessed for elegibility. Of 15 873 eligible patients from 93 NHS hospitals, primary outcome data were analysed for 8482 patients in the usual care group and 7374 in the QI group. Eight patients in the usual care group and nine patients in the QI group were not included in the analysis because of missing primary outcome data. The primary outcome of 90-day mortality occurred in 1210 (16%) patients in the QI group compared with 1393 (16%) patients in the usual care group (HR 1·11, 0·96–1·28). Interpretation: No survival benefit was observed from this QI programme to implement a care pathway for patients undergoing emergency abdominal surgery. Future QI programmes should ensure that teams have both the time and resources needed to improve patient care. Funding: National Institute for Health Research Health Services and Delivery Research Programme

Effectiveness of a national quality improvement programme to improve survival after emergency abdominal surgery (EPOCH): a stepped-wedge cluster-randomised trial

BACKGROUND: Emergency abdominal surgery is associated with poor patient outcomes. We studied the effectiveness of a national quality improvement (QI) programme to implement a care pathway to improve survival for these patients. METHODS: We did a stepped-wedge cluster-randomised trial of patients aged 40 years or older undergoing emergency open major abdominal surgery. Eligible UK National Health Service (NHS) hospitals (those that had an emergency general surgical service, a substantial volume of emergency abdominal surgery cases, and contributed data to the National Emergency Laparotomy Audit) were organised into 15 geographical clusters and commenced the QI programme in a random order, based on a computer-generated random sequence, over an 85-week period with one geographical cluster commencing the intervention every 5 weeks from the second to the 16th time period. Patients were masked to the study group, but it was not possible to mask hospital staff or investigators. The primary outcome measure was mortality within 90 days of surgery. Analyses were done on an intention-to-treat basis. This study is registered with the ISRCTN registry, number ISRCTN80682973. FINDINGS: Treatment took place between March 3, 2014, and Oct 19, 2015. 22 754 patients were assessed for elegibility. Of 15 873 eligible patients from 93 NHS hospitals, primary outcome data were analysed for 8482 patients in the usual care group and 7374 in the QI group. Eight patients in the usual care group and nine patients in the QI group were not included in the analysis because of missing primary outcome data. The primary outcome of 90-day mortality occurred in 1210 (16%) patients in the QI group compared with 1393 (16%) patients in the usual care group (HR 1·11, 0·96-1·28). INTERPRETATION: No survival benefit was observed from this QI programme to implement a care pathway for patients undergoing emergency abdominal surgery. Future QI programmes should ensure that teams have both the time and resources needed to improve patient care. FUNDING: National Institute for Health Research Health Services and Delivery Research Programme

Multiorgan MRI findings after hospitalisation with COVID-19 in the UK (C-MORE): a prospective, multicentre, observational cohort study

Introduction: The multiorgan impact of moderate to severe coronavirus infections in the post-acute phase is still poorly understood. We aimed to evaluate the excess burden of multiorgan abnormalities after hospitalisation with COVID-19, evaluate their determinants, and explore associations with patient-related outcome measures. Methods: In a prospective, UK-wide, multicentre MRI follow-up study (C-MORE), adults (aged ≥18 years) discharged from hospital following COVID-19 who were included in Tier 2 of the Post-hospitalisation COVID-19 study (PHOSP-COVID) and contemporary controls with no evidence of previous COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid antibody negative) underwent multiorgan MRI (lungs, heart, brain, liver, and kidneys) with quantitative and qualitative assessment of images and clinical adjudication when relevant. Individuals with end-stage renal failure or contraindications to MRI were excluded. Participants also underwent detailed recording of symptoms, and physiological and biochemical tests. The primary outcome was the excess burden of multiorgan abnormalities (two or more organs) relative to controls, with further adjustments for potential confounders. The C-MORE study is ongoing and is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04510025. Findings: Of 2710 participants in Tier 2 of PHOSP-COVID, 531 were recruited across 13 UK-wide C-MORE sites. After exclusions, 259 C-MORE patients (mean age 57 years [SD 12]; 158 [61%] male and 101 [39%] female) who were discharged from hospital with PCR-confirmed or clinically diagnosed COVID-19 between March 1, 2020, and Nov 1, 2021, and 52 non-COVID-19 controls from the community (mean age 49 years [SD 14]; 30 [58%] male and 22 [42%] female) were included in the analysis. Patients were assessed at a median of 5·0 months (IQR 4·2–6·3) after hospital discharge. Compared with non-COVID-19 controls, patients were older, living with more obesity, and had more comorbidities. Multiorgan abnormalities on MRI were more frequent in patients than in controls (157 [61%] of 259 vs 14 [27%] of 52; p<0·0001) and independently associated with COVID-19 status (odds ratio [OR] 2·9 [95% CI 1·5–5·8]; padjusted=0·0023) after adjusting for relevant confounders. Compared with controls, patients were more likely to have MRI evidence of lung abnormalities (p=0·0001; parenchymal abnormalities), brain abnormalities (p<0·0001; more white matter hyperintensities and regional brain volume reduction), and kidney abnormalities (p=0·014; lower medullary T1 and loss of corticomedullary differentiation), whereas cardiac and liver MRI abnormalities were similar between patients and controls. Patients with multiorgan abnormalities were older (difference in mean age 7 years [95% CI 4–10]; mean age of 59·8 years [SD 11·7] with multiorgan abnormalities vs mean age of 52·8 years [11·9] without multiorgan abnormalities; p<0·0001), more likely to have three or more comorbidities (OR 2·47 [1·32–4·82]; padjusted=0·0059), and more likely to have a more severe acute infection (acute CRP >5mg/L, OR 3·55 [1·23–11·88]; padjusted=0·025) than those without multiorgan abnormalities. Presence of lung MRI abnormalities was associated with a two-fold higher risk of chest tightness, and multiorgan MRI abnormalities were associated with severe and very severe persistent physical and mental health impairment (PHOSP-COVID symptom clusters) after hospitalisation. Interpretation: After hospitalisation for COVID-19, people are at risk of multiorgan abnormalities in the medium term. Our findings emphasise the need for proactive multidisciplinary care pathways, with the potential for imaging to guide surveillance frequency and therapeutic stratification

Exploring long-term electrification pathway dynamics : a case study of Ethiopia

The Open Source Spatial Electrifcation Tool (OnSSET) is extended to provide a long-term geospatial electrifcationanalysis of Ethiopia, focusing on the role of grid- and of-grid technologies to increase residential electricity access underdiferent scenarios. Furthermore, the model explores issues of compatibility between the electricity supply technologiesover time. Six potential scenarios towards universal access to electricity in the country are examined based on threepathways; the Ambition pathway sees high demand growth and universal access achieved by 2025, the Slow Down pathway follows a lower demand growth with a slower electrifcation rate and with a higher share of of-grid technologies,and the Big Business pathway prioritizes grid electricity frst for the industrial sector, leading to slower residential electrifcation. The results show a large focus on grid extension and stand-alone PV deployment for least-cost electrifcationin case of low grid-generation costs and uninhibited grid expansion. However, in case of a slower grid rollout rate andhigh demand growth, a more dynamic evolution of the supply system is seen, where mini-grids play an important rolein transitional electrifcation. Similarly, in the case where grid electricity generation comes at a higher cost, mini-gridsprove to be cost-competitive with the centralized grid in many areas. Finally, we also show that transitional mini-grids,which are later incorporated into the centralized grid, risk increasing the investments signifcantly during the periodswhen these are integrated and mini-grid standards are not successfully implemented. In all cases, existing barriers todecentralized technologies must be removed to ensure of-grid technologies are deployed and potentially integratedwith the centralized grid as needed.QC 20231006</p

Influence of Electrification Pathways in the Electricity Sector of Ethiopia—Policy Implications Linking Spatial Electrification Analysis and Medium to Long-Term Energy Planning

Ethiopia is a low-income country, with low electricity access (45%) and an inefficient power transmission network. The government aims to achieve universal access and become an electricity exporter in the region by 2025. This study provides an invaluable perspective on different aspects of Ethiopia’s energy transition, focusing on achieving universal access and covering the country’s electricity needs during 2015–2065. We co-developed and investigated three scenarios to examine the policy and technology levels available to the government to meet their national priorities. To conduct this analysis, we soft-linked OnSSET, a modelling tool used for geospatial analysis, with OSeMOSYS, a cost-optimization modelling tool used for medium to long-run energy planning. Our results show that the country needs to diversify its power generation system to achieve universal access and cover its future electricity needs by increasing its overall carbon dioxide emissions and fully exploit hydropower. With the aim of achieving universal access by 2025, the newly electrified population is supplied primarily by the grid (65%), followed by stand-alone (32%) technologies. Similarly, until 2065, most of the electrified people by 2025 will continue to be grid-connected (99%). The country’s exports will increase to 17 TWh by 2065, up from 832 GWh in 2015, leading to a cumulative rise in electricity export revenues of 184 billion USD