Connection between sea surface anomalies and atmospheric quasi-stationary waves

Large scale, quasi-stationary atmospheric waves (QSWs) are known to be strongly connected with extreme events and general weather conditions. Yet, despite their importance, there is still a lack of understanding about what drives variability in QSW. This study is a step towards this goal, and identifies three statistically significant connections between QSWs and sea surface anomalies (temperature and ice cover) by applying a maximum covariance analysis technique to reanalysis data (1979-2015). The two most dominant connections are linked to the El Ni\~no Southern Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation. They confirm the expected relationship between QSWs and anomalous surface conditions in the tropical Pacific and the North Atlantic, but they cannot be used to infer a driving mechanism or predictability from the sea surface temperature or the sea ice cover to the QSW. The third connection, in contrast, occurs between late winter to early spring Atlantic sea ice concentrations and anomalous QSW patterns in the following late summer to early autumn. This new finding offers a pathway for possible long term predictability of late summer QSW occurrence

Sub-seasonal forecasts of demand and wind power and solar power generation for 28 European countries

Electricity systems are becoming increasingly exposed to weather. The need for high-quality meteorological forecasts for managing risk across all timescales has therefore never been greater. This paper seeks to extend the uptake of meteorological data in the power systems modelling community to include probabilistic meteorological forecasts at sub-seasonal lead times. Such forecasts are growing in skill and are receiving considerable attention in power system risk management and energy trading. Despite this interest, these forecasts are rarely evaluated in power system terms, and technical barriers frequently prohibit use by non-meteorological specialists.This paper therefore presents data produced through a new EU climate services programme Subseasonal-to-seasonal forecasting for Energy (S2S4E). The data correspond to a suite of well-documented, easy-to-use, self-consistent daily and nationally aggregated time series for wind power, solar power and electricity demand across 28 European countries. The data are accessible from https://doi.org/10.17864/1947.275 (Gonzalez et al., 2020). The data include a set of daily ensemble reforecasts from two leading forecast systems spanning 20 years (ECMWF, an 11-member ensemble, with twice-weekly starts for 1996–2016, totalling 22 880 forecasts) and 11 years (NCEP, a 12-member lagged-ensemble, constructed to match the start dates from the ECMWF forecast from 1999–2010, totalling 14 976 forecasts). The reforecasts contain multiple plausible realisations of daily weather and power data for up to 6 weeks in the future.To the authors’ knowledge, this is the first time a fully calibrated and post-processed daily power system forecast set has been published, and this is the primary purpose of this paper. A brief review of forecast skill in each of the individual primary power system properties and a composite property is presented, focusing on the winter season. The forecast systems contain additional skill over climatological expectation for weekly-average forecasts at extended lead times, though this skill depends on the nature of the forecast metric considered. This highlights the need for greater collaboration between the energy and meteorological research communities to develop applications, and it is hoped that publishing these data and tools will support this

The structural history and mineralization controls of the world-class Geita Hill gold deposit, Geita Greenstone Belt, Tanzania

The Geita Hill gold deposit is located in the Archean Geita Greenstone Belt and is one of the largest gold deposits in East Africa. The Geita Greenstone Belt experienced a complex deformation and intrusive history that is well illustrated and preserved in and around the Geita Hill gold deposit. Deformation involved early stages of ductile shearing and folding (D1 to D5), during which episodic emplacement of large diorite intrusive complexes, sills, and dykes occurred. These ductile deformation phases were followed by the development of brittle-ductile shear zones and faults (D6 to D8). The last stages of deformation were accompanied by voluminous felsic magmatism involving the intrusion of felsic porphyry dykes, within the greenstone belt, and the emplacement of large granitic bodies now forming the margins of the greenstone belt. Early, folded lamprophyre dykes, and later lamprophyre dykes, crosscutting the folded sequence are common, although volumetrically insignificant. The gold deposit formed late during the tectonic history of the greenstone belt, post-dating ductile deformation and synchronous with the development of brittle-ductile shear zones that overprinted earlier structural elements. The main mineralizing process involved sulfide replacement of magnetite-rich layers in ironstone and locally the replacement of ferromagnesian phases and magnetite in the diorite intrusions. The intersection between the brittle-ductile (D6) Geita Hill Shear Zone and different structural elements of ductile origin (e.g., fold hinges), and the contact between banded ironstone and folded diorite dykes and sills provided the optimal sites for gold mineralization

Effective theories of scattering with an attractive inverse-square potential and the three-body problem

A distorted-wave version of the renormalisation group is applied to scattering by an inverse-square potential and to three-body systems. In attractive three-body systems, the short-distance wave function satisfies a Schroedinger equation with an attractive inverse-square potential, as shown by Efimov. The resulting oscillatory behaviour controls the renormalisation of the three-body interactions, with the renormalisation-group flow tending to a limit cycle as the cut-off is lowered. The approach used here leads to single-valued potentials with discontinuities as the bound states are cut off. The perturbations around the cycle start with a marginal term whose effect is simply to change the phase of the short-distance oscillations, or the self-adjoint extension of the singular Hamiltonian. The full power counting in terms of the energy and two-body scattering length is constructed for short-range three-body forces.Comment: 19 pages (RevTeX), 2 figure

Future changes in atmospheric rivers and their implications for winter flooding in Britain

Within the warm conveyor belt of extra-tropical cyclones, atmospheric rivers (ARs) are the key synoptic features which deliver the majority of poleward water vapour transport, and are associated with episodes of heavy and prolonged rainfall. ARs are responsible for many of the largest winter floods in the mid-latitudes resulting in major socioeconomic losses; for example, the loss from United Kingdom (UK) flooding in summer/winter 2012 is estimated to be about $1.6 billion in damages. Given the well-established link between ARs and peak river flows for the present day, assessing how ARs could respond under future climate projections is of importance in gauging future impacts from flooding. We show that North Atlantic ARs are projected to become stronger and more numerous in the future scenarios of multiple simulations from five state-of-the-art global climate models (GCMs) in the fifth Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The increased water vapour transport in projected ARs implies a greater risk of higher rainfall totals and therefore larger winter floods in Britain, with increased AR frequency leading to more flood episodes. In the high emissions scenario (RCP8.5) for 2074–2099 there is an approximate doubling of AR frequency in the five GCMs. Our results suggest that the projected change in ARs is predominantly a thermodynamic response to warming resulting from anthropogenic radiative forcing

Relativistic Calculation of the Meson Spectrum: a Fully Covariant Treatment Versus Standard Treatments

A large number of treatments of the meson spectrum have been tried that consider mesons as quark - anti quark bound states. Recently, we used relativistic quantum "constraint" mechanics to introduce a fully covariant treatment defined by two coupled Dirac equations. For field-theoretic interactions, this procedure functions as a "quantum mechanical transform of Bethe-Salpeter equation". Here, we test its spectral fits against those provided by an assortment of models: Wisconsin model, Iowa State model, Brayshaw model, and the popular semi-relativistic treatment of Godfrey and Isgur. We find that the fit provided by the two-body Dirac model for the entire meson spectrum competes with the best fits to partial spectra provided by the others and does so with the smallest number of interaction functions without additional cutoff parameters necessary to make other approaches numerically tractable. We discuss the distinguishing features of our model that may account for the relative overall success of its fits. Note especially that in our approach for QCD, the resulting pion mass and associated Goldstone behavior depend sensitively on the preservation of relativistic couplings that are crucial for its success when solved nonperturbatively for the analogous two-body bound-states of QED.Comment: 75 pages, 6 figures, revised content

Rossby wave dynamics of the North Pacific extra-tropical response to El Niño: importance of the basic state in coupled GCMs

The extra-tropical response to El Nino in a "low" horizontal resolution coupled climate model, typical of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change fourth assessment report simulations, is shown to have serious systematic errors. A high resolution configuration of the same model has a much improved response that is similar to observations. The errors in the low resolution model are traced to an incorrect representation of the atmospheric teleconnection mechanism that controls the extra-tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs) during El Nino. This is due to an unrealistic atmospheric mean state, which changes the propagation characteristics of Rossby waves. These erroneous upper tropospheric circulation anomalies then induce erroneous surface circulation features over the North Pacific. The associated surface wind speed and direction errors create erroneous surface flux and upwelling anomalies which finally lead to the incorrect extra-tropical SST response to El Nino in the low resolution model. This highlights the sensitivity of the climate response to a single link in a chain of complex climatic processes. The correct representation of these processes in the high resolution model indicates the importance of horizontal resolution in resolving such processes

Creating a proof-of-concept climate service to assess future renewable energy mixes in Europe: an overview of the C3S ECEM project

The EU Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) European Climatic Energy Mixes (ECEM) has produced, in close collaboration with prospective users, a proof-of-concept climate service, or Demonstrator, designed to enable the energy industry and policy makers assess how well different energy supply mixes in Europe will meet demand, over different time horizons (from seasonal to long-term decadal planning), focusing on the role climate has on the mixes. The concept of C3S ECEM, its methodology and some results are presented here. The first part focuses on the construction of reference data sets for climate variables based on the ERA-Interim reanalysis. Subsequently, energy variables were created by transforming the bias-adjusted climate variables using a combination of statistical and physically-based models. A comprehensive set of measured energy supply and demand data was also collected, in order to assess the robustness of the conversion to energy variables. Climate and energy data have been produced both for the historical period (1979–2016) and for future projections (from 1981 to 2100, to also include a past reference period, but focusing on the 30 year period 2035–2065). The skill of current seasonal forecast systems for climate and energy variables has also been assessed. The C3S ECEM project was designed to provide ample opportunities for stakeholders to convey their needs and expectations, and assist in the development of a suitable Demonstrator. This is the tool that collects the output produced by C3S ECEM and presents it in a user-friendly and interactive format, and it therefore constitutes the essence of the C3S ECEM proof-of-concept climate service

Extratropical cyclones and the projected decline of winter Mediterranean precipitation in the CMIP5 models

The Mediterranean region has been identified as a climate change "hot-spot" due to a projected reduction in precipitation and fresh water availability which has potentially large socio-economic impacts. To increase confidence in these projections, it is important to physically understand how this precipitation reduction occurs. This study quantifies the impact on winter Mediterranean precipitation due to changes in extratropical cyclones in 17 CMIP5 climate models. In each model, the extratropical cyclones are objectively tracked and a simple approach is applied to identify the precipitation associated to each cyclone. This allows us to decompose the Mediterranean precipitation reduction into a contribution due to changes in the number of cyclones and a contribution due to changes in the amount of precipitation generated by each cyclone. The results show that the projected Mediterranean precipitation reduction in winter is strongly related to a decrease in the number of Mediterranean cyclones. However, the contribution from changes in the amount of precipitation generated by each cyclone are also locally important: in the East Mediterranean they amplify the precipitation trend due to the reduction in the number of cyclones, while in the North Mediterranean they compensate for it. Some of the processes that determine the opposing cyclone precipitation intensity responses in the North and East Mediterranean regions are investigated by exploring the CMIP5 inter-model spread

Quantifying the sensitivity of European power systems to energy scenarios and climate change projections

Climate simulations consistently show an increase in European near-surface air temperature by the late 21st century, although projections for near-surface wind speeds and irradiance differ between models, and are accompanied by large natural variability. These factors make it difficult to estimate the effects of physical climate change on power system planning. Here, the impact of climate change on future European power systems is estimated. We show for the first time how a set of divergent future power system scenarios lead to marked differences in Europe’s total energy balance (demand-net-renewable supply) by 2050, which dominate over the uncertainty associated with climate change (~50% and ~5% respectively). However, within any given power system scenario, national power systems may be subject to considerable impacts from climate change, particularly for seasonal differences between renewable resources (e.g., wind power may be impacted by ~20% or more). There is little agreement between climate models in terms of the spatio-temporal pattern of these impacts, and even in the direction of change for wind and solar. More thorough consideration of climate uncertainty is therefore needed, as it is likely to be of great importance for robust future power system planning and design