Investigation of transmisison error, friction and wear in anti-backlash involute gear transmissions

NR 2014080

When will hybrid technologies dominate the heavy-duty vehicle market? : Forecasting Using Innovation Diffusion Models

Hybrid-electric technologies have recently been introduced into the market for heavy-duty vehicles (HDVs). However, challenging an established technology with a new and untried technology is difficult, also under the best conditions. Forecasting is a vital tool in product portfolio management, since it provides guidance on how much resources a firm should allocate on new innovative projects and products and when and where to enter the market. Therefore, this thesis forecasts the market penetration of hybrid HDVs in Europe by usage of innovation diffusion models – based on three different market scenarios assuming no, some and considerable incentives or legislative CO2 for HDVs. Hybrid-electric, hydraulic hybrid and flywheel hybrid vehicles are considered and an analogical approach is used based on sales data for radial tyres, disc brakes and anti-lock braking systems. The result from a non-linear regression analysis indicated that innovation diffusion models of mixed influence are capable of predicting future market demand, not only of hybrid HDVs, but also of other HDVs with new innovative technologies or solutions. Therefore, it was suggested that innovation diffusion modeling should be a standard tool in the strategic planning of a HDV firm’s all new innovative products. All market scenarios resulted in a rather low diffusion speed of hybrid HDVs during the first ten years, but the speed increased then rapidly during the next ten years such that 40-50 percent of the HDV market was penetrated in 2030. In the most hybrid-friendly scenario, the market was nearly fully penetrated after 50 years since the first introduction in 2010, while in the least hybrid-friendly scenario additional ten years was needed to fully penetrate the HDV market. The forecasts may be affected by possible pre-diffusion, the emergence of a dominant design or the diffusion acceleration effect. One of the major challenges of using innovation diffusion models for sales forecasting of hybrid HDVs, was to find appropriate and sufficient analogous sales data. Therefore, Thomas (1985) analogous approach was further developed to be more focused on finding analogous sales data from internal, external or public sources

Radionuclide wiggle matching reveals a nonsynchronous early Holocene climate oscillation in Greenland and western Europe around a grand solar minimum

Several climate oscillations have been reported from the early Holocene superepoch, the best known of which is the Preboreal oscillation (PBO). It is still unclear how the PBO and the number of climate oscillations observed in Greenland ice cores and European terrestrial records are related to one another. This is mainly due to uncertainties in the chronologies of the records. Here, we present new, high-resolution Be-10 concentration data from the varved Meerfelder Maar sediment record in Germany, spanning the period 11 310-11 000 years BP. These new data allow us to synchronize this well-studied record, as well as Greenland ice core records, with the IntCal13 timescale via radionuclide wiggle matching. In doing so, we show that the climate oscillations identified in Greenland and Europe between 11 450 and 11 000 years BP were not synchronous but terminated and began, respectively, with the onset of a grand solar minimum. A similar spatial anomaly pattern is found in a number of modeling studies on solar forcing of climate in the North Atlantic region. We further postulate that freshwater delivery to the North Atlantic would have had the potential to amplify solar forcing through a slowdown of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) reinforcing surface air temperature anomalies in the region

Wind regime changes in the Euro-Atlantic region driven by late-Holocene Grand Solar Minima

© 2022 Springer Nature Switzerland AG. This is the accepted manuscript version of an article which has been published in final form at https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06388-wUnderstanding atmospheric response to radiative forcing, including the intensity and distribution of wind patterns is critical as this might have important implications in the coming decades. Long-term episodes of reduced solar activity (i.e. Grand Solar Minima, GSM) have triggered rapid climate change in the past, recorded in proxy-based records, including varved sediments from Meerfelder Maar, Germany, where the Homeric GSM (~ 2800 years ago) was studied. This study reconstructs windy conditions during the same GSM from Diss Mere, another varved record in England, to support the solar-wind linkage in the North Atlantic-European region. We use diatoms as proxies for windiness and support the palaeolimnological and palaeoclimate interpretation with a multi-proxy approach, including sedimentological, geochemical, and biological (chironomids and pollen) evidence. The diatom assemblage documents a shift from Pantocsekiella ocellata dominance to Stephanodiscus parvus and Lindavia comta, indicating a shift to more turbulent waters from ~ 2767 ± 28, linked to increased windiness. This shift is synchronous with changes in 14C production, linked to solar activity changes during the GSM. Both proxy records reflect a rapid and synchronous atmospheric response (i.e. stronger winds) at the onset and during the GSM in the North Atlantic and continental Europe. In order to test whether this solar-wind linkage is consistent during other GSMs and to understand the underlying climate dynamics, we analyse the wind response to solar forcing at the two study sites during the Little Ice Age, a period that includes several GSMs. For this, we have used a reconstruction based on a 1200-year-long simulation with an isotope-enabled climate model. Our study suggests that wind anomalies in the North Atlantic-European sector may relate to an anomalous atmospheric circulation in response to long-term solar forcing leading to north-easterlies modulated by the East Atlantic pattern.Peer reviewe

New insights into the genetic etiology of Alzheimer’s disease and related dementias

Characterization of the genetic landscape of Alzheimer’s disease (AD) and related dementias (ADD) provides a unique opportunity for a better understanding of the associated pathophysiological processes. We performed a two-stage genome-wide association study totaling 111,326 clinically diagnosed/‘proxy’ AD cases and 677,663 controls. We found 75 risk loci, of which 42 were new at the time of analysis. Pathway enrichment analyses confirmed the involvement of amyloid/tau pathways and highlighted microglia implication. Gene prioritization in the new loci identified 31 genes that were suggestive of new genetically associated processes, including the tumor necrosis factor alpha pathway through the linear ubiquitin chain assembly complex. We also built a new genetic risk score associated with the risk of future AD/dementia or progression from mild cognitive impairment to AD/dementia. The improvement in prediction led to a 1.6- to 1.9-fold increase in AD risk from the lowest to the highest decile, in addition to effects of age and the APOE ε4 allele