Impacts of climate change on global agri-food trade

Climate change and trade are closely related. Climate may alter the comparative advantages across countries, which may in turn trigger changes in trade patterns. Trade itself may constitute an adaptation strategy, moving excesses of agri-food supply to regions with shortages, and this in turn may explain changes in land-use. We investigate these linkages, showing that the changes in climate affect counties’ trade value and contribute to reshaping trade patterns. First, we quantify the long-term impacts of climate on the value of agri-food exports, implicitly considering the ability of countries to adapt, and show that higher marginal temperatures and rainfall levels tend to be beneficial for countries’ exports. Following a gravity model approach, we then link the evolving trade patterns to climate change adaptation strategies. We find that the larger the difference in temperatures and rainfall levels between trading partners, the higher the value of bilateral exports. Furthermore, while developed and developing exporters are both sensitive to climate change and to cross-countries heterogeneity in climate, we found their responses to changes in climate to be quite diverse

Mapping potential implications of temporary COVID‐19 export bans for the food supply in importing countries using precrisis trade flows

Despite pleas from international organizations, governments and trade economists to refrain from imposing trade‐distorting measures, over 20 countries have implemented bans on the export of agri‐food products since the onset of the COVID‐19 crisis. These export prohibitions might adversely impact food security and disrupt well‐established global supply chains. We identify importing countries that could potentially be affected by the imposed export bans using a measure of their import dependency during the pre‐pandemic period to illustrate our results on global trade maps. We find that many importers rely on just one country for a significant share of the overall domestic supply of a particular commodity

The Allure of the Illegal: Choice Modeling of Rhino Horn Demand in Vietnam

Using choice modeling, we explore willingness to pay for rhino horn among existing and potential future consumers in Vietnam. We find that wild-sourced horn, harvested humanely from the least rare species, is the most highly valued product. Furthermore, consumers are willing to pay less for rhino horn products under a scenario where international trade is legalized compared to the current situation of illegal trade. We discuss the potential implications of our findings on rhino poaching and international trade policy

The coffee guide

The Coffee Guide is the world's most extensive, hands-on and neutral source of information on the international coffee trade. It covers trade issues relevant to coffee growers, traders, exporters, transportation companies, certifiers, associations and authorities, and other relevant actors. Many in the coffee industry consider it the go-to reference. This fourth edition is directly informed by the coffee industry. It has updated technical information on finance, food safety measures, logistics and contracts. It has redefined quality and data segmentation and expanded digitalization coverage and information related to certifications and supply chain legislation. It also gives prime importance to issues like climate change, coffee price volatility, living wage and the inequitable distribution of power, profit and resources across the supply chain. It aims to be informative, useful and inclusive of all sector stakeholders.Coffee is commercially produced in more than 50 countries, and the world drinks upwards of 3 billion cups a day. The annual income of the coffee sector is estimated to exceed $200 billion. While the number of coffee drinkers continues to rise and producers work hard to keep up with demand, the coffee industry is faced today with unprecedented challenges and shifting dynamics that command change and adaptation. Business as usual is no longer an option. The COVID-19 pandemic has hit actors across the coffee value chain hard and fast. Still reeling from the shock, they are pulling together to survive and rebuild in a more sustainable way. The effects of climate change, while certainly not new, are now more visible than ever – especially in producer countries, which are also the most vulnerable. Environmental, social and economic inequities exist within value chains. Calls for fairer, more ethical systems of trade have become a global priority, shaping consumer trends. Meanwhile, economic developments in some producer countries are changing the geography of consumption and have the world considering new models of trade. New partnerships, technology and greater participation of women and youth are contributing to a constructive evolution of the coffee industry. They alter the way we produce and consume coffee. This guide explores the main forces driving change in the coffee industry and considers what trends are emerging as a result. It also offers an overview of market dynamics, with the latest data as well as examples and information that equip anyone interested in the sector with the right tools to navigate it

Prospective urinary albumin/creatinine ratio for diagnosis, staging, and organ response assessment in renal AL amyloidosis: results from a large cohort of patients

Abstract Objectives Quantification of 24 h-proteinuria is the gold standard for diagnosing, staging, and monitoring of patients with renal AL amyloidosis. However, 24 h-urine collection is cumbersome and may result in preanalytical error. In this prospective study, we investigated the role of urinary albumin/creatinine ratio (UACR) (cut-off: 300 mg/g) identifying renal involvement, evaluated a UACR-based staging system (UACR cut-off: 3,600 mg/g) and assessed whether UACR response (UACR decrease >30% without worsening in eGFR >25%) predicts renal outcome in 531 patients with newly-diagnosed AL amyloidosis. Methods From October 2013 paired 24 h-proteinuria and UACR (on first morning void) were measured in all newly-diagnosed patients with AL amyloidosis. Correlation between 24 h-proteinuria and UACR at baseline was assessed by Pearson's r test. Impact of UACR response on renal outcome was assessed in randomly created testing (n=354) and validation (n=177) cohorts. Results A strong linear correlation was found between 24 h-proteinuria and UACR at baseline (r=0.90; p<0.001). After a median follow-up of 31 months, 57 (11%) patients required dialysis. A UACR-based renal staging system identified three stages with significantly higher dialysis rate at 36 months comparing stage I with stage II and stage II with stage III. Achieving a renal response, according to a UACR-based criterion, resulted in lower dialysis rate in both testing and validation cohorts. Conclusions UACR is a reliable marker for diagnosis, prognosis, and organ response assessment in renal AL amyloidosis and can reliably replace 24 h-proteinuria in clinical trials and individual patients' management

Adaptation to Climate Change: Farmers' Risk Preferences and the Role of Irrigation

We adopt a moment based approach to investigate how individual producers' optimize input usage, in particular irrigation water, taking into account their risk preferences. We rely on a panel data of 122,800 Italian farms, spread over 1981 to 2003. We capture both variation over farms and over time. We show that risk aversion has increased over time, while down-side risk aversion has been more stable and that farmers specializing in different crops exhibit different risk aversion and use irrigation water with diverse efficiency. Higher downside risk aversion is a key determinant in the decision to adopt irrigation technology

Stability of risk attitude, agricultural policies and production shocks: evidence from Italy

This article investigates the stability of farmers’ risk attitude over time. To this end, we estimate responses to changes in agricultural policies and production shocks. We use a unique panel data of over 36,000 Italian farms specialised in cereals, during the period 1989–2009. We find evidence of risk preference changes over time in response to changes in the European Union Common Agricultural Policy and possibly after a drought-induced production shock