A global evaluation of multi-model ensemble tropical cyclone track probability forecasts

At the Met Office, dynamic ensemble forecasts from the Met Office Global and Regional Ensemble Prediction System (MOGREPS-G), the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Ensemble (ECMWF ENS) and National Centers for Environmental Prediction Global Ensemble Forecast System (NCEP GEFS) global ensemble forecast models are post-processed to identify and track tropical cyclones. The ensemble members from each model are also combined into a 108-member multi-model ensemble. Track probability forecasts are produced for named tropical cyclones showing the probability of a location being within 120km of a named tropical cyclone at any point in the next 7-days, and also broken down in to each 24-hour forecast period. This paper presents the verification of these named-storm track probabilities over a two-year period across all global tropical cyclone basins, and compares the results from basin to basin. The combined multi-model ensemble is found to increase the skill and value of the track probability forecasts over the best-performing individual ensemble (ECMWF ENS), for both overall 7-day track probability forecasts and 24-hour track probabilities. Basin-based and storm-based verification illustrates that the best performing individual ensemble can change from basin to basin and from storm to storm, but that the multi-model ensemble adds skill in every basin, and is also able to match the best performing individual ensemble in terms of overall probabilistic forecast skill in several high-profile case studies. This study helps to illustrate the potential value and skill to be gained if operational tropical cyclone forecasting can continue to migrate away from a deterministic-focused forecasting environment to one where the probabilistic situation-based uncertainty information provided by the dynamic multi-model ensembles can be incorporated into operational forecasts and warnings

Migrating Mule Deer: Effects of Anthropogenically Altered Landscapes

Background: Migration is an adaptive strategy that enables animals to enhance resource availability and reduce risk of predation at a broad geographic scale. Ungulate migrations generally occur along traditional routes, many of which have been disrupted by anthropogenic disturbances. Spring migration in ungulates is of particular importance for conservation planning, because it is closely coupled with timing of parturition. The degree to which oil and gas development affects migratory patterns, and whether ungulate migration is sufficiently plastic to compensate for such changes, warrants additional study to better understand this critical conservation issue. Methodology/Principal Findings: We studied timing and synchrony of departure from winter range and arrival to summer range of female mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) in northwestern Colorado, USA, which has one of the largest natural-gas reserves currently under development in North America. We hypothesized that in addition to local weather, plant phenology, and individual life-history characteristics, patterns of spring migration would be modified by disturbances associated with natural-gas extraction. We captured 205 adult female mule deer, equipped them with GPS collars, and observed patterns of spring migration during 2008–2010. Conclusions/Significance: Timing of spring migration was related to winter weather (particularly snow depth) and access to emerging vegetation, which varied among years, but was highly synchronous across study areas within years. Additionally, timing of migration was influenced by the collective effects of anthropogenic disturbance, rate of travel, distance traveled, and body condition of adult females. Rates of travel were more rapid over shorter migration distances in areas of high natural-gas development resulting in the delayed departure, but early arrival for females migrating in areas with high development compared with less-developed areas. Such shifts in behavior could have consequences for timing of arrival on birthing areas, especially where mule deer migrate over longer distances or for greater durations

Prospects for Determining the Mass Distributions of Galaxy Clusters on Large Scales Using Weak Gravitational Lensing

For more than two decades, the Navarro, Frenk, and White (NFW) model has stood the test of time; it has been used to describe the distribution of mass in galaxy clusters out to their outskirts. Stacked weak lensing measurements of clusters are now revealing the distribution of mass out to and beyond their virial radii, where the NFW model is no longer applicable. In this study we assess how well the parameterised Diemer & Kravstov (DK) density profile describes the characteristic mass distribution of galaxy clusters extracted from cosmological simulations. This is determined from stacked synthetic lensing measurements of the 50 most massive clusters extracted from the Cosmo-OWLS simulations, using the Dark Matter Only run and also the run that most closely matches observations. The characteristics of the data reflect the Weighing the Giants survey and data from the future Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST). In comparison with the NFW model, the DK model favored by the stacked data, in particular for the future LSST data, where the number density of background galaxies is higher. The DK profile depends on the accretion history of clusters which is specified in the current study. Eventually however subsamples of galaxy clusters with qualities indicative of disparate accretion histories could be studied

UV-optical from space

The following subject areas are covered: (1) the science program (star formation and origins of planetary systems; structure and evolution of the interstellar medium; stellar population; the galactic and extragalactic distance scale; nature of galaxy nuclei, AGNs, and QSOs; formation and evolution of galaxies at high redshifts; and cosmology); (2) implementation of the science program; (3) the observatory-class missions (HST; LST - the 6m successor to HST; and next-generation 16m telescope); (4) moderate and small missions (Delta-class Explorers; imaging astrometric interferometer; small Explorers; optics development and demonstrations; and supporting ground-based capabilities); (5) prerequisites - the current science program (Lyman-FUSE; HTS optimization; the near-term science program; data analysis, modeling, and theory funding; and archives); (6) technologies for the next century; and (7) lunar-based telescopes and instruments

Inverse Compton Scattering as the Source of Diffuse EUV Emission in the Coma Cluster of Galaxies

We have examined the hypothesis that the majority of the diffuse EUV flux in the Coma cluster is due to inverse Compton scattering of low energy cosmic ray electrons (0.16 < epsilon < 0.31 GeV) against the 3K black-body background. We present data on the two-dimensional spatial distribution of the EUV flux and show that these data provide strong support for a non-thermal origin for the EUV flux. However, we show that this emission cannot be produced by an extrapolation to lower energies of the observed synchrotron radio emitting electrons and an additional component of low energy cosmic ray electrons is required.Comment: 11 pages, 5 figure

UV and EUV Instruments

We describe telescopes and instruments that were developed and used for astronomical research in the ultraviolet (UV) and extreme ultraviolet (EUV) regions of the electromagnetic spectrum. The wavelength ranges covered by these bands are not uniquely defined. We use the following convention here: The EUV and UV span the regions ~100-912 and 912-3000 Angstroem respectively. The limitation between both ranges is a natural choice, because the hydrogen Lyman absorption edge is located at 912 Angstroem. At smaller wavelengths, astronomical sources are strongly absorbed by the interstellar medium. It also marks a technical limit, because telescopes and instruments are of different design. In the EUV range, the technology is strongly related to that utilized in X-ray astronomy, while in the UV range the instruments in many cases have their roots in optical astronomy. We will, therefore, describe the UV and EUV instruments in appropriate conciseness and refer to the respective chapters of this volume for more technical details.Comment: To appear in: Landolt-Boernstein, New Series VI/4A, Astronomy, Astrophysics, and Cosmology; Instruments and Methods, ed. J.E. Truemper, Springer-Verlag, Berlin, 201

Far Ultraviolet Absolute Flux of alpha Virginis

We present the far ultraviolet spectrum of alpha Virginis taken with EURD spectrograph on-board MINISAT-01. The spectral range covered is from ~900 to 1080 A with 5 A spectral resolution. We have fitted Kurucz models to IUE spectra of alpha Vir and compared the extension of the model to our wavelengths with EURD data. This comparison shows that EURD fluxes are consistent with the prediction of the model within 20-30%, depending on the reddening assumed. EURD fluxes are consistent with Voyager observations but are ~60% higher than most previous rocket observations of alpha Vir.Comment: 13 pages, 4 figures. Submitted to The Astrophysical Journa

Towards Autopoietic Computing

A key challenge in modern computing is to develop systems that address complex, dynamic problems in a scalable and efficient way, because the increasing complexity of software makes designing and maintaining efficient and flexible systems increasingly difficult. Biological systems are thought to possess robust, scalable processing paradigms that can automatically manage complex, dynamic problem spaces, possessing several properties that may be useful in computer systems. The biological properties of self-organisation, self-replication, self-management, and scalability are addressed in an interesting way by autopoiesis, a descriptive theory of the cell founded on the concept of a system's circular organisation to define its boundary with its environment. In this paper, therefore, we review the main concepts of autopoiesis and then discuss how they could be related to fundamental concepts and theories of computation. The paper is conceptual in nature and the emphasis is on the review of other people's work in this area as part of a longer-term strategy to develop a formal theory of autopoietic computing.Comment: 10 Pages, 3 figure

Implications of a Nonthermal Origin of the Excess EUV Emission from the Coma Cluster of Galaxies

The inverse Compton (IC) interpretation of the excess EUV emission, that was recently reported from several clusters of galaxies, suggests that the amount of relativistic electrons in the intracluster medium is highly significant, W_e>10^{61} erg. Considering Coma as the prototype galaxy cluster of nonthermal radiation, we discuss implications of the inverse Compton origin of the excess EUV fluxes in the case of low intracluster magnetic fields of order 0.1 muG, as required for the IC interpretation of the observed excess hard X-ray flux, and in the case of high fields of order 1 muG as suggested by Faraday rotation measurements. Although for such high intracluster fields the excess hard X-rays will require an explanation other than by the IC effect, we show that the excess EUV flux can be explained by the IC emission of a `relic' population of electrons driven into the incipient intracluster medium at the epoch of starburst activity by galactic winds, and later on reenergized by adiabatic compression and/or large-scale shocks transmitted through the cluster as the consequence of more recent merger events. For high magnetic fields B > 1 muG the interpretation of the radio fluxes of Coma requires a second population of electrons injected recently. They can be explained as secondaries produced by a population of relativistic protons. We calculate the fluxes of gamma-rays to be expected in both the low and high magnetic field scenarios, and discuss possibilities to distinguish between these two principal options by future gamma-ray observations.Comment: LaTeX, 6 figures; accepted for publication in Ap