Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Background: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. Methods: We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defi ned criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors—the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted causespecifi c DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Findings: Between 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25%. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25% over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57·8% (95% CI 56·6–58·8) of global deaths and 41·2% (39·8–42·8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211·8 million [192·7 million to 231·1 million] global DALYs), smoking (148·6 million [134·2 million to 163·1 million]), high fasting plasma glucose (143·1 million [125·1 million to 163·5 million]), high BMI (120·1 million [83·8 million to 158·4 million]), childhood undernutrition (113·3 million [103·9 million to 123·4 million]), ambient particulate matter (103·1 million [90·8 million to 115·1 million]), high total cholesterol (88·7 million [74·6 million to 105·7 million]), household air pollution (85·6 million [66·7 million to 106·1 million]), alcohol use (85·0 million [77·2 million to 93·0 million]), and diets high in sodium (83·0 million [49·3 million to 127·5 million]). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient defi ciencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood undernutrition declined steadily with SDI; low physical activity, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. In 119 countries, metabolic risks, such as high BMI and fasting plasma glucose, contributed the most attributable DALYs in 2015. Regionally, smoking still ranked among the leading five risk factors for attributable DALYs in 109 countries; childhood underweight and unsafe sex remained primary drivers of early death and disability in much of sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation: Declines in some key environmental risks have contributed to declines in critical infectious diseases. Some risks appear to be invariant to SDI. Increasing risks, including high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, drug use, and some occupational exposures, contribute to rising burden from some conditions, but also provide opportunities for intervention. Some highly preventable risks, such as smoking, remain major causes of attributable DALYs, even as exposure is declining. Public policy makers need to pay attention to the risks that are increasingly major contributors to global burden

The Economic Impact of Blindness in Europe

Purpose: To estimate the annual loss of productivity from blindness and moderate to severe visual impairment (MSVI) in the population aged >50 years in the European Union (EU). Methods: We estimated the cost of lost productivity using three simple models reported in the literature based on (1) minimum wage (MW), (2) gross national income (GNI), and (3) purchasing power parity-adjusted gross domestic product (GDP-PPP) losses. In the first two models, assumptions included that all individuals worked until 65 years of age, and that half of all visual impairment cases in the >50-year age group would be in those aged between 50 and 65 years. Loss of productivity was estimated to be 100% for blind individuals and 30% for those with MSVI. None of these models included direct medical costs related to visual impairment. Results: The estimated number of blind people in the EU population aged >50 years is ~1.28 million, with a further 9.99 million living with MSVI. Based on the three models, the estimated cost of blindness is €7.81 billion, €6.29 billion and €17.29 billion and that of MSVI €18.02 billion, €24.80 billion and €39.23 billion, with their combined costs €25.83 billion, €31.09 billion and €56.52 billion, respectively. The estimates from the MW and adjusted GDP-PPP models were generally comparable, whereas the GNI model estimates were higher, probably reflecting the lack of adjustment for unemployment. Conclusion: The cost of blindness and MSVI in the EU is substantial. Wider use of available cost-effective treatment and prevention strategies may reduce the burden significantly

A Comparison of Reach-to-Grasp and Transport-to-Place Performance in Participants With Age-Related Macular Degeneration and Glaucoma

PURPOSE: To compare visually guided manual prehension in participants with primarily central field loss (CFL) due to age-related macular degeneration and peripheral visual field loss (PFL) due to glaucoma. This study extends current literature by comparing directly "reach-to-grasp" performance, and presents a new task of "transport-to-place" the object accurately to a new location. Data were compared to age-matched controls. METHODS: Three-dimensional motion data were collected from 17 glaucoma participants with PFL, 17 participants with age-related macular degeneration CFL and 10 age-matched control participants. Participants reached toward and grasped a cylindrical object (reach-to-grasp), and then transported and placed (transport-to-place) it at a different (predefined) peripheral location. Various kinematic indices were measured. Correlation analyses explored relationships between visual function and kinematic data. RESULTS: In the reach-to-grasp phase, CFL patients exhibited significantly longer movement and reaction times when compared to PFL participants and controls. Central field loss participants also took longer to complete the movement and made more online movements in the latter part of the reach. During the transport-to-place phase, CFL participants showed increased deceleration times, longer movement trajectory, and increased vertical wrist displacement. Central field loss also showed higher errors in placing the object at a predefined location. A number of kinematic indices correlated significantly to central visual function indices (P < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Significant differences in performance exist between CFL and PFL participants. Various indices correlated significantly with loss in acuity and contrast sensitivity (CS), suggesting that performance is more dependent on central visual function irrespective of underlying pathology

World blindness and visual impairment: despite many successes, the problem is growing

Over the last 30 years, there has been a reduction in the proportion of people with visual impairment and blindness worldwide. However, growing and ageing populations mean that the challenge of eliminating avoidable blindness is now bigger than ever before

The optic nerve head in glaucoma

All types of glaucoma involve glaucomatous optic neuropathy. The key to detection and management of glaucoma is understanding how to examine the optic nerve head (ONH). This article addresses the following issues: • How to examine the ONH • Normal characteristics of the ONH • Characteristics of a glaucomatous ONH • How to tell if the glaucomatous optic neuropathy is getting worse

Global estimates on the number of people blind or visually impaired by Uncorrected Refractive Error: A meta-analysis from 2000 to 2020

BackgroundUncorrected refractive error (URE) is a readily treatable cause of visual impairment (VI). This study provides updated estimates of global and regional vision loss due to URE, presenting temporal change for VISION 2020MethodsData from population-based eye disease surveys from 1980–2018 were collected. Hierarchical models estimated prevalence (95% uncertainty intervals [UI]) of blindness (presenting visual acuity (VA) &lt; 3/60) and moderate-to-severe vision impairment (MSVI; 3/60 ≤ presenting VA &lt; 6/18) caused by URE, stratified by age, sex, region, and year. Near VI prevalence from uncorrected presbyopia was defined as presenting near VA &lt; N6/N8 at 40 cm when best-corrected distance (VA ≥ 6/12).ResultsIn 2020, 3.7 million people (95%UI 3.10–4.29) were blind and 157 million (140–176) had MSVI due to URE, a 21.8% increase in blindness and 72.0% increase in MSVI since 2000. Age-standardised prevalence of URE blindness and MSVI decreased by 30.5% (30.7–30.3) and 2.4% (2.6–2.2) respectively during this time. In 2020, South Asia GBD super-region had the highest 50+ years age-standardised URE blindness (0.33% (0.26–0.40%)) and MSVI (10.3% (8.82–12.10%)) rates. The age-standardized ratio of women to men for URE blindness was 1.05:1.00 in 2020 and 1.03:1.00 in 2000. An estimated 419 million (295–562) people 50+ had near VI from uncorrected presbyopia, a +75.3% (74.6–76.0) increase from 2000ConclusionsThe number of cases of VI from URE substantively grew, even as age-standardised prevalence fell, since 2000, with a continued disproportionate burden by region and sex. Global population ageing will increase this burden, highlighting urgent need for novel approaches to refractive service delivery

The Risks and Benefits of Myopia Control

The prevalence of myopia is increasing around the world, stimulating interest in 3 methods to slow its progression. The primary justification for slowing myopia progression is to 4 reduce the risk of vision loss through sight-threatening ocular pathology in later life. The paper 5 analyzes whether the potential benefits of slowing myopia progression by one diopter justify the 6 potential risks associated with treatments

Diurnal Intraocular Pressure and the Relationship With Swept-Source OCT–Derived Anterior Chamber Dimensions in Angle Closure: The IMPACT Study

Purpose: To evaluate diurnal intraocular pressure (DIOP) among individuals with Primary Angle Closure (PAC) or Primary Angle Closure Suspect (PACS). Additionally the hypothesis that greater DIOP fluctuation is related to smaller angle parameters was investigated. Methods: 40 Caucasian newly referred untreated patients with bilateral PAC or PACS were recruited. Intraocular pressure (IOP) was measured hourly between 09.00 and 16.00 with Goldmann applanation tonometry. DIOP fluctuation was defined as difference between maximum and minimum IOP. Angle Opening Distance, AOD; Trabecular-Iris Angle (TIA); Angle Recess Area (ARA); Trabecular Iris Space Area (TISA) were measured with AS-OCT (CASIA) in dark (0.3-0.5 lux) and light (170-200 lux) on the same day as DIOP measurements in eight angle sections. Results: IOP declined as the day progressed (p<0.001), unrelated to presence of PAS. At each timepoint, eyes with PAS (n=31) had significantly higher IOPs than eyes without PAS (n=49; p=0.043). DIOP fluctuation varied from 1.50 mmHg to 14.50 mmHg (mean 5.99 mmHg, SD 2.70 mmHg). DIOP fluctuation was unrelated to PAS. Multiple-predictor models investigating association of angle dimensions and greater DIOP fluctuation were statistically significant for AOD 750 (light), ARA 750 (light and dark), TISA 500 (light), TISA 750 (light), TIA 500 (light) and TIA 750 (light and dark). Conclusions: DIOP variation has clinical implications given that IOP level is used to distinguish between diagnostic categories of PACS and PAC. OCT angle parameter measurements may predict for magnitude of IOP diurnal fluctuations in at-risk patients, which may be clinical useful when considering a clinical intervention

Ocular coherence tomography-measured changes over time in anterior chamber angle and diurnal intraocular pressure after laser iridotomy: IMPACT study

Importance: The change in the anatomical dimensions over time and the effect on diurnal intraocular pressure following laser peripheral iridotomy is poorly understood. Background: To evaluate change over time in anterior chamber angle anatomy following laser peripheral iridotomy (LPI) in patients with primary angle closure compared to control eyes. Additionally, the effect of LPI on diurnal intraocular pressure (DIOP) fluctuation was investigated. Design: Longitudinal, prospective, double-randomised research study. Participants: Adults with suspected angle closure or angle closure diagnosis referred to hospital services in the United Kingdom. Methods: Thirty-nine patients newly diagnosed with bilateral primary angle closure/suspects (PAC/PACS) received LPI to one eye and changes in angle morphology were measured over 8 sections with swept source AS-OCT. The other eye acted as control with intraocular pressure (IOP) measured hourly. Main outcome measures: Angle opening distance (AOD), trabecular–iris angle (TIA), angle recess area (ARA), and trabecular–iris space area (TISA) at 500 m and 750 m from scleral spur Results: There was an increase in all angle parameters following LPI, which was maintained for 6 months (e.g inferotemporal segment AOD500 0.041mm (p=0.008) at 1 week and 0.039mm (p=0.003) at 6 months) following LPI. Greatest effect at 6 months post-LPI was observed opposite the iridotomy site in the inferior/inferotemporal sections (AOD500 0.039mm, p=0.003 and AOD750 0.075mm, p=0.002). There were no statistically significant differences for the overall DIOP fluctuation values in the treated group at 6 months post-LPI compared to baseline. Conclusions and Relevance: LPI widened all angle sections with maximum effect observed in the site opposite the iridotomy. Angle changes were maintained up to 6 months after LPI treatment without any statistically significant change in DIOP fluctuation

Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. METHODS: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. FINDINGS: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. INTERPRETATION: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030