Stress and worry in the 2020 coronavirus pandemic: Relationships to trust and compliance with preventive measures across 48 countries in the COVIDiSTRESS global survey

The COVIDiSTRESS global survey collects data on early human responses to the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic from 173 429 respondents in 48 countries. The open science study was co-designed by an international consortium of researchers to investigate how psychological responses differ across countries and cultures, and how this has impacted behaviour, coping and trust in government efforts to slow the spread of the virus. Starting in March 2020, COVIDiSTRESS leveraged the convenience of unpaid online recruitment to generate public data. The objective of the present analysis is to understand relationships between psychological responses in the early months of global coronavirus restrictions and help understand how different government measures succeed or fail in changing public behaviour. There were variations between and within countries. Although Western Europeans registered as more concerned over COVID-19, more stressed, and having slightly more trust in the governments' efforts, there was no clear geographical pattern in compliance with behavioural measures. Detailed plots illustrating between-countries differences are provided. Using both traditional and Bayesian analyses, we found that individuals who worried about getting sick worked harder to protect themselves and others. However, concern about the coronavirus itself did not account for all of the variances in experienced stress during the early months of COVID-19 restrictions. More alarmingly, such stress was associated with less compliance. Further, those most concerned over the coronavirus trusted in government measures primarily where policies were strict. While concern over a disease is a source of mental distress, other factors including strictness of protective measures, social support and personal lockdown conditions must also be taken into consideration to fully appreciate the psychological impact of COVID-19 and to understand why some people fail to follow behavioural guidelines intended to protect themselves and others from infection. The Stage 1 manuscript associated with this submission received in-principle acceptance (IPA) on 18 May 2020. Following IPA, the accepted Stage 1 version of the manuscript was preregistered on the Open Science Framework at https://osf.io/g2t3b. This preregistration was performed prior to data analysis

Stress and worry in the 2020 coronavirus pandemic: relationships to trust and compliance with preventive measures across 48 countries in the COVIDiSTRESS global survey

The COVIDiSTRESS global survey collects data on early human responses to the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic from 173 429 respondents in 48 countries. The open science study was co-designed by an international consortium of researchers to investigate how psychological responses differ across countries and cultures, and how this has impacted behaviour, coping and trust in government efforts to slow the spread of the virus. Starting in March 2020, COVIDiSTRESS leveraged the convenience of unpaid online recruitment to generate public data. The objective of the present analysis is to understand relationships between psychological responses in the early months of global coronavirus restrictions and help understand how different government measures succeed or fail in changing public behaviour. There were variations between and within countries. Although Western Europeans registered as more concerned over COVID-19, more stressed, and having slightly more trust in the governments' efforts, there was no clear geographical pattern in compliance with behavioural measures. Detailed plots illustrating between-countries differences are provided. Using both traditional and Bayesian analyses, we found that individuals who worried about getting sick worked harder to protect themselves and others. However, concern about the coronavirus itself did not account for all of the variances in experienced stress during the early months of COVID-19 restrictions. More alarmingly, such stress was associated with less compliance. Further, those most concerned over the coronavirus trusted in government measures primarily where policies were strict. While concern over a disease is a source of mental distress, other factors including strictness of protective measures, social support and personal lockdown conditions must also be taken into consideration to fully appreciate the psychological impact of COVID-19 and to understand why some people fail to follow behavioural guidelines intended to protect themselves and others from infection. The Stage 1 manuscript associated with this submission received in-principle acceptance (IPA) on 18 May 2020. Following IPA, the accepted Stage 1 version of the manuscript was preregistered on the Open Science Framework at https://osf.io/g2t3b. This preregistration was performed prior to data analysis

Study of delay differential equations with applications to the regulation of blood platelet production

L’objectif de cette thèse est d’étudier, à l’aide de modèles mathématiques, le mécanisme de régulation qui permet au corps de maintenir une quantité optimale de plaquettes sanguines. Le premier chapitre présente le contexte biologique et mathématique. Dans un second chapitre, un modèle pour la mégacaryopoïèse est introduit qui suppose une régulation ponctuelle par le nombre de plaquettes du taux de différentiation des cellules souches vers la lignée mégacaryocytaire et du nombre de plaquettes produites par mégacaryocyte. Nous montrons que la dynamique de ce modèle est régie par une équation différentielle à retard x'(t) = -?x(t)+f(x(t))g(x(t-t)), et nous obtenons ensuite de nouvelles conditions suffisantes pour la stabilité et l’oscillation des solutions de cette équation. Dans le troisième chapitre, nous analysons un second modèle pour la mégacaryopoïèse qui considère cette fois-ci une régulation opérée en continu uniquement via la vitesse de maturation des mégacaryoblastes. L’analyse de stabilité nécessite d’adapter un cadre pré-existant aux cas où le paramètre de bifurcation n’est pas le retard, et permet de montrer que l’augmentation du taux de mort des mégacaryoblastes conduit à l’apparition de solutions périodiques, en accord avec les observations cliniques de la thrombopénie cyclique amégacaryocytaire. Le dernier chapitre est consacré l’analyse de stabilité d’une équation différentielle à deux retards qui apparait notamment dans le cadre de la mégacaryopoïèse lorsque l’on considère que les plaquettes ont une durée de vie limitéeThe object of this thesis is the study, using mathematical models, of the regulation mechanism maintaining an optimal quantity of blood platelets. The first chapter presents the biological and mathematical context of the thesis. In a second chapter, we introduce a model for megakaryopoiesis assuming a regulation by the platelet quantity of both the differentiation rate of stem cells to the platelet cell line and the amount of platelets produced by each megakaryocyte. We show that the dynamic of this model corresponds to a delay differential equation x'(t) = -?x(t) + f(x(t))g(x(t - t)), and we obtain for this equation new sufficient conditions for stability and for the oscillation of solutions. In a third chapter, we analyze a second model for megakaryopoiesis in which the regulation is continuous through the maturation speed of megakaryocyte progenitors. The stability analysis requires to adapt a pre-existing framework to problems where the bifurcation parameter is not the delay, and allows to show that increasing the death rate of megakaryocyte progenitors leads to the onset of periodic solutions, in agreement with clinical observation of amegakaryocytic cyclical thrombocytopenia. The last chapter covers a differential equation with two delays that appears among others in a model of platelet production which considers that platelet death can both age-independent and age-dependen

Étude d’équations à retard appliquées à la régulation de la production de plaquettes sanguines

The object of this thesis is the study, using mathematical models, of the regulation mechanism maintaining an optimal quantity of blood platelets. The first chapter presents the biological and mathematical context of the thesis. In a second chapter, we introduce a model for megakaryopoiesis assuming a regulation by the platelet quantity of both the differentiation rate of stem cells to the platelet cell line and the amount of platelets produced by each megakaryocyte. We show that the dynamic of this model corresponds to a delay differential equation x'(t) = -?x(t) + f(x(t))g(x(t - t)), and we obtain for this equation new sufficient conditions for stability and for the oscillation of solutions. In a third chapter, we analyze a second model for megakaryopoiesis in which the regulation is continuous through the maturation speed of megakaryocyte progenitors. The stability analysis requires to adapt a pre-existing framework to problems where the bifurcation parameter is not the delay, and allows to show that increasing the death rate of megakaryocyte progenitors leads to the onset of periodic solutions, in agreement with clinical observation of amegakaryocytic cyclical thrombocytopenia. The last chapter covers a differential equation with two delays that appears among others in a model of platelet production which considers that platelet death can both age-independent and age-dependentL’objectif de cette thèse est d’étudier, à l’aide de modèles mathématiques, le mécanisme de régulation qui permet au corps de maintenir une quantité optimale de plaquettes sanguines. Le premier chapitre présente le contexte biologique et mathématique. Dans un second chapitre, un modèle pour la mégacaryopoïèse est introduit qui suppose une régulation ponctuelle par le nombre de plaquettes du taux de différentiation des cellules souches vers la lignée mégacaryocytaire et du nombre de plaquettes produites par mégacaryocyte. Nous montrons que la dynamique de ce modèle est régie par une équation différentielle à retard x'(t) = -?x(t)+f(x(t))g(x(t-t)), et nous obtenons ensuite de nouvelles conditions suffisantes pour la stabilité et l’oscillation des solutions de cette équation. Dans le troisième chapitre, nous analysons un second modèle pour la mégacaryopoïèse qui considère cette fois-ci une régulation opérée en continu uniquement via la vitesse de maturation des mégacaryoblastes. L’analyse de stabilité nécessite d’adapter un cadre pré-existant aux cas où le paramètre de bifurcation n’est pas le retard, et permet de montrer que l’augmentation du taux de mort des mégacaryoblastes conduit à l’apparition de solutions périodiques, en accord avec les observations cliniques de la thrombopénie cyclique amégacaryocytaire. Le dernier chapitre est consacré l’analyse de stabilité d’une équation différentielle à deux retards qui apparait notamment dans le cadre de la mégacaryopoïèse lorsque l’on considère que les plaquettes ont une durée de vie limité