Exploring uncertainty of Amazon dieback in a perturbed parameter Earth system ensemble

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Wiley via the DOI in this recordThe future of the Amazon rainforest is unknown due to uncertainties in projected climate change and the response of the forest to this change (forest resiliency). Here, we explore the effect of some uncertainties in climate and land surface processes on the future of the forest, using a perturbed physics ensemble of HadCM3C. This is the first time Amazon forest changes are presented using an ensemble exploring both land vegetation processes and physical climate feedbacks in a fully coupled modelling framework. Under three different emissions scenarios, we measure the change in the forest coverage by the end of the 21st century (the transient response) and make a novel adaptation to a previously used method known as "dry-season resilience" to predict the long-term committed response of the forest, should the state of the climate remain constant past 2100. Our analysis of this ensemble suggests that there will be a high chance of greater forest loss on longer timescales than is realized by 2100, especially for mid-range and low emissions scenarios. In both the transient and predicted committed responses, there is an increasing uncertainty in the outcome of the forest as the strength of the emissions scenarios increases. It is important to note however, that very few of the simulations produce future forest loss of the magnitude previously shown under the standard model configuration. We find that low optimum temperatures for photosynthesis and a high minimum leaf area index needed for the forest to compete for space appear to be precursors for dieback. We then decompose the uncertainty into that associated with future climate change and that associated with forest resiliency, finding that it is important to reduce the uncertainty in both of these if we are to better determine the Amazon's outcome.Chris Boulton was supported by a PhD studentship provided by the University of Exeter. The contributions to this work from Ben Booth and Peter Good were supported by the Joint UK DECC/Defra Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme (GA01101)

Feeling the Earthship house: eliciting a perspective of posterity through immersive virtual reality

Purpose: The surging cost of living and shortage of affordable and sustainable homes fuel the global housing crisis. Earthship buildings are marketed as the epitome of affordable and sustainable alternative housing. This paper aimed to elicit the perception of Earthship buildings among youngsters in the United Kingdom using immersive virtual reality technology. Additionally, the impact of virtual reality on perception compared with two-dimensional drawings was investigated in the study. Design/methodology/approach: A three-phase, experiment-based survey was adopted: Phase 1: literature review, Earthship house model conception and the virtual environment creation; Phase 2: two-dimensional drawing-based pre-visualisation survey; Phase 3: virtual reality–based post-visualisation survey. Findings: The findings indicated that youngsters had a remarkable, positive change in attitude towards the uptake of the Earthship houses after virtual reality visualisation. In contrast, sustainability experts shared more concerns regarding the concept's viability in the United Kingdom, even after the virtual reality visualisation. However, both youngsters and experts agreed with the pre-eminence of virtual reality over two-dimensional drawings. Originality/value: The lack of awareness about Earthship buildings for posterity was noted in previous studies, which could be attributed to there being very few Earthship buildings in the United Kingdom. The importance of this awareness among youngsters cannot be over-emphasised since youngsters are affected most by the shortage of affordable and sustainable homes. This gap was addressed by enlightening the youth about Earthship houses and imparting awareness through near-real-life virtual reality visualisation

Increasing Iron and Zinc in Pre-Menopausal Women and Its Effects on Mood and Cognition: A Systematic Review.

Iron and zinc are essential minerals often present in similar food sources. In addition to the adverse effects of frank iron and zinc-deficient states, iron insufficiency has been associated with impairments in mood and cognition. This paper reviews current literature on iron or zinc supplementation and its impact on mood or cognition in pre-menopausal women. Searches included MEDLINE complete, Excerpta Medica Database (EMBASE), psychINFO, psychARTICLES, pubMED, ProQuest Health and Medical Complete Academic Search complete, Scopus and ScienceDirect. Ten randomized controlled trials and one non-randomized controlled trial were found to meet the inclusion criteria. Seven studies found improvements in aspects of mood and cognition after iron supplementation. Iron supplementation appeared to improve memory and intellectual ability in participants aged between 12 and 55 years in seven studies, regardless of whether the participant was initially iron insufficient or iron-deficient with anaemia. The review also found three controlled studies providing evidence to suggest a role for zinc supplementation as a treatment for depressive symptoms, as both an adjunct to traditional antidepressant therapy for individuals with a diagnosis of major depressive disorder and as a therapy in its own right in pre-menopausal women with zinc deficiency. Overall, the current literature indicates a positive effect of improving zinc status on enhanced cognitive and emotional functioning. However, further study involving well-designed randomized controlled trials is needed to identify the impact of improving iron and zinc status on mood and cognition

On the Computational Complexity of Vertex Integrity and Component Order Connectivity

The Weighted Vertex Integrity (wVI) problem takes as input an $n$-vertex graph $G$, a weight function $w:V(G)\to\mathbb{N}$, and an integer $p$. The task is to decide if there exists a set $X\subseteq V(G)$ such that the weight of $X$ plus the weight of a heaviest component of $G-X$ is at most $p$. Among other results, we prove that: (1) wVI is NP-complete on co-comparability graphs, even if each vertex has weight $1$; (2) wVI can be solved in $O(p^{p+1}n)$ time; (3) wVI admits a kernel with at most $p^3$ vertices. Result (1) refutes a conjecture by Ray and Deogun and answers an open question by Ray et al. It also complements a result by Kratsch et al., stating that the unweighted version of the problem can be solved in polynomial time on co-comparability graphs of bounded dimension, provided that an intersection model of the input graph is given as part of the input. An instance of the Weighted Component Order Connectivity (wCOC) problem consists of an $n$-vertex graph $G$, a weight function $w:V(G)\to \mathbb{N}$, and two integers $k$ and $l$, and the task is to decide if there exists a set $X\subseteq V(G)$ such that the weight of $X$ is at most $k$ and the weight of a heaviest component of $G-X$ is at most $l$. In some sense, the wCOC problem can be seen as a refined version of the wVI problem. We prove, among other results, that: (4) wCOC can be solved in $O(\min\{k,l\}\cdot n^3)$ time on interval graphs, while the unweighted version can be solved in $O(n^2)$ time on this graph class; (5) wCOC is W[1]-hard on split graphs when parameterized by $k$ or by $l$; (6) wCOC can be solved in $2^{O(k\log l)} n$ time; (7) wCOC admits a kernel with at most $kl(k+l)+k$ vertices. We also show that result (6) is essentially tight by proving that wCOC cannot be solved in $2^{o(k \log l)}n^{O(1)}$ time, unless the ETH fails.Comment: A preliminary version of this paper already appeared in the conference proceedings of ISAAC 201

Why prospective registration of systematic reviews makes sense

Prospective registration of systematic reviews promotes transparency, helps reduce potential for bias and serves to avoid unintended duplication of reviews. Registration offers advantages to many stakeholders in return for modest additional effort from the researchers registering their reviews

Opinions of small and medium UK construction companies on environmental management systems

Pressure to reduce the environmental impact of construction activities has increased, such that a paradigm shift is required. This paper presents stakeholder opinions of environmental management systems as a means for the construction industry to respond to these issues. Using a previous approach (Shen and Tam, 2002) the views of small and medium construction companies were sought, using questionnaires to ask respondents to reveal their perceived benefits and barriers of implementing the ISO 14000 suite of environmental management standards in the UK. Detailed statistical analysis showed environmental management systems can sometimes produce quantifiable benefits to organisations in terms of cost reduction. However, from a contractors’ view, the greatest benefit was a reduction in environmental impact outweighing financial benefits. Findings also demonstrated numerous barriers, both internal and external, to an organisation exist regarding adoption and use of environment management systems. The most critical barrier was that cost savings do not always balance with the expense of implementation. Furthermore, waste minimisation at design stage is viewed as most important. In general, the opinions gauged in this study indicated short-term profits are normally considered more imperative than long-term gains. Therefore, despite a need to focus on developing strategies for removing or reducing the challenges of environmental management systems, the reality is that they may not be the panacea to sustainable development, as is often touted

The epidemiology of kidney disease in people of African ancestry with HIV in the UK

Background: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality globally. The risk of CKD is increased in people of African ancestry and with Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) infection. Methods: We conducted a cross-sectional study investigating the relationship between region of ancestry (East, Central, South or West Africa) and kidney disease in people of sub-Saharan African ancestry with HIV in the UK between May 2018 and February 2020. The primary outcome was renal impairment (estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR] of 50 mg/mmol), and biopsy-confirmed HIV-associated nephropathy (HIVAN), focal segmental glomerulosclerosis (FSGS) or arterionephrosclerosis. Multivariable robust Poisson regression estimated the effect of region of African ancestry on kidney disease outcomes. Findings: Of the 2468 participants (mean age 48.1 [SD 9.8] years, 62% female), 193 had renal impairment, 87 stage 5 CKD, 126 proteinuria, and 43 HIVAN/FSGS or arterionephrosclerosis. After adjusting for demographic characteristics, HIV and several CKD risk factors and with East African ancestry as referent, West African ancestry was associated with renal impairment (prevalence ratio [PR] 2.06 [95% CI 1.40–3.04]) and stage 5 CKD (PR 2.23 [1.23–4.04]), but not with proteinuria (PR 1.27 [0.78–2.05]). West African ancestry (as compared to East/South African ancestry) was also strongly associated with a diagnosis of HIVAN/FSGS or arterionephrosclerosis on kidney biopsy (PR 6.44 [2.42–17.14]). Interpretation: Our results indicate that people of West African ancestry with HIV are at increased risk of kidney disease. Although we cannot rule out the possibility of residual confounding, geographical region of origin appears to be a strong independent risk factor for CKD as the association did not appear to be explained by several demographic, HIV or renal risk factors

Decellularisation and Histological Characterisation of Porcine Peripheral Nerves

Peripheral nerve injuries affect a large proportion of the global population, often causing significant morbidity and loss of function. Current treatment strategies include the use of implantable nerve guide conduits (NGC’s) to direct regenerating axons between the proximal and distal ends of the nerve gap. However, NGC’s are limited in their effectiveness at promoting regeneration Current NGCs are not suitable as substrates for supporting either neuronal or Schwann cell growth, as they lack an architecture similar to that of the native extracellular matrix (ECM) of the nerve. The aim of this study was to create an acellular porcine peripheral nerve using a novel decellularisation protocol, in order to eliminate the immunogenic cellular components of the tissue, while preserving the three-dimensional histoarchitecture and ECM components. Porcine peripheral nerve (sciatic branches were decellularised using a low concentration (0.1 %; w/v) sodium dodecyl sulphate in conjunction with hypotonic buffers and protease inhibitors, and then sterilised using 0.1 % (v/v) peracetic acid. Quantitative and qualitative analysis revealed a ≥95 % (w/w) reduction in DNA content as well as preservation of the nerve fascicles and connective tissue. Acellular nerves were shown to have retained key ECM components such as collagen, laminin and fibronectin. Slow strain rate to failure testing demonstrated the biomechanical properties of acellular nerves to be comparable to fresh controls. In conclusion, we report the production of a biocompatible, biomechanically functional acellular scaffold, which may have use in peripheral nerve repair

In-cell NMR characterization of the secondary structure populations of a disordered conformation of α-Synuclein within E. coli cells

α-Synuclein is a small protein strongly implicated in the pathogenesis of Parkinson’s disease and related neurodegenerative disorders. We report here the use of in-cell NMR spectroscopy to observe directly the structure and dynamics of this protein within E. coli cells. To improve the accuracy in the measurement of backbone chemical shifts within crowded in-cell NMR spectra, we have developed a deconvolution method to reduce inhomogeneous line broadening within cellular samples. The resulting chemical shift values were then used to evaluate the distribution of secondary structure populations which, in the absence of stable tertiary contacts, are a most effective way to describe the conformational fluctuations of disordered proteins. The results indicate that, at least within the bacterial cytosol, α-synuclein populates a highly dynamic state that, despite the highly crowded environment, has the same characteristics as the disordered monomeric form observed in aqueous solution