Critical fluctuations in cortical models near instability

Australian Research Council, the National Health and Medical Research Council, the Brain Network Recovery Group Grant JSMF22002082, and Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research (NWO #451–10-030

Unpacking pathways to diversified livelihoods from projects in Pacific Island coastal fisheries

Livelihood diversification has become an integral focus of policies and investments aiming to reduce poverty, vulnerability, and pressure on fishery resources in coastal communities around the globe. In this regard, coastal fisheries in the Pacific Islands have long been a sector where livelihood diversification has featured prominently. Yet, despite the widespread promotion and international investment in this strategy, the ability of externally funded livelihood diversification projects to facilitate improved resource management and rural development outcomes often remains inconsistent. We argue these inconsistencies can be attributed to a conceptual ambiguity stemming from a lack of attention and awareness to the complexity of livelihood diversification. There is still much to learn about the process of livelihood diversification, both in its theoretical conceptualizations and its practical applications. Herein, we utilize a common diversity framework to clarify some of this ambiguity by distinguishing three diversification pathways. These pathways are illustrated using an ideal–typical Pacific Island coastal household and supported by examples provided in the literature that detail livelihood diversification projects in the Pacific. Through this perspective, we seek a more nuanced understanding of what is meant within the policy and practice goal of livelihood diversification. Thereby enabling more targeted and deliberate planning for development investments that facilitates outcomes in support of sustainable livelihoods

Modeling Patient-Specific Dose-Function Response for Enhanced Characterization of Personalized Functional Damage

PURPOSE: Functional-guided radiation therapy (RT) plans have the potential to limit damage to normal tissue and reduce toxicity. Although functional imaging modalities have continued to improve, a limited understanding of the functional response to radiation and its application to personalized therapy has hindered clinical implementation. The purpose of this study was to retrospectively model the longitudinal, patient-specific dose-function response in non-small cell lung cancer patients treated with RT to better characterize the expected functional damage in future, unknown patients. METHODS AND MATERIALS: Perfusion single-photon emission computed tomography/computed tomography scans were obtained at baseline (n = 81), midtreatment (n = 74), 3 months post-treatment (n = 51), and 1 year post-treatment (n = 26) and retrospectively analyzed. Patients were treated with conventionally fractionated RT or stereotactic body RT. Normalized perfusion single-photon emission computed tomography voxel intensity was used as a surrogate for local lung function. A patient-specific logistic model was applied to each individual patient's dose-function response to characterize functional reduction at each imaging time point. Patient-specific model parameters were averaged to create a population-level logistic dose-response model. RESULTS: A significant longitudinal decrease in lung function was observed after RT by analyzing the voxelwise change in normalized perfusion intensity. Generated dose-function response models represent the expected voxelwise reduction in function, and the associated uncertainty, for an unknown patient receiving conventionally fractionated RT or stereotactic body RT. Differential treatment responses based on the functional status of the voxel at baseline suggest that initially higher functioning voxels are damaged at a higher rate than lower functioning voxels. CONCLUSIONS: This study modeled the patient-specific dose-function response in patients with non-small cell lung cancer during and after radiation treatment. The generated population-level dose-function response models were derived from individual patient assessment and have the potential to inform functional-guided treatment plans regarding the expected functional lung damage. This type of patient-specific modeling approach can be applied broadly to other functional response analyses to better capture intrapatient dependencies and characterize personalized functional damage

Prediction of Radiation Esophagitis in Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer Using Clinical Factors, Dosimetric Parameters, and Pretreatment Cytokine Levels

Radiation esophagitis (RE) is a common adverse event associated with radiotherapy for non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). While plasma cytokine levels have been correlated with other forms of radiation-induced toxicity, their association with RE has been less well studied. We analyzed data from 126 patients treated on 4 prospective clinical trials. Logistic regression models based on combinations of dosimetric factors [maximum dose to 2 cubic cm (D2cc) and generalized equivalent uniform dose (gEUD)], clinical variables, and pretreatment plasma levels of 30 cytokines were developed. Cross-validated estimates of area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and log likelihood were used to assess prediction accuracy. Dose-only models predicted grade 3 RE with AUC values of 0.750 (D2cc) and 0.727 (gEUD). Combining clinical factors with D2cc increased the AUC to 0.779. Incorporating pretreatment cytokine measurements, modeled as direct associations with RE and as potential interactions with the dose-esophagitis association, produced AUC values of 0.758 and 0.773, respectively. D2cc and gEUD correlated with grade 3 RE with odds ratios (ORs) of 1.094/Gy and 1.096/Gy, respectively. Female gender was associated with a higher risk of RE, with ORs of 1.09 and 1.112 in the D2cc and gEUD models, respectively. Older age was associated with decreased risk of RE, with ORs of 0.992/year and 0.991/year in the D2cc and gEUD models, respectively. Combining clinical with dosimetric factors but not pretreatment cytokine levels yielded improved prediction of grade 3 RE compared to prediction by dose alone. Such multifactorial modeling may prove useful in directing radiation treatment planning

Radiation-induced lung toxicity in non-small-cell lung cancer: Understanding the interactions of clinical factors and cytokines with the dose-toxicity relationship

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Current methods to estimate risk of radiation-induced lung toxicity (RILT) rely on dosimetric parameters. We aimed to improve prognostication by incorporating clinical and cytokine data, and to investigate how these factors may interact with the effect of mean lung dose (MLD) on RILT. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Data from 125 patients treated from 2004 to 2013 with definitive radiotherapy for stages I-III NSCLC on four prospective clinical trials were analyzed. Plasma levels of 30 cytokines were measured pretreatment, and at 2 and 4weeks midtreatment. Penalized logistic regression models based on combinations of MLD, clinical factors, and cytokine levels were developed. Cross-validated estimates of log-likelihood and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) were used to assess accuracy. RESULTS: In prognosticating grade 3 or greater RILT by MLD alone, cross-validated log-likelihood and AUC were -28.2 and 0.637, respectively. Incorporating clinical features and baseline cytokine levels increased log-likelihood to -27.6 and AUC to 0.669. Midtreatment cytokine data did not further increase log-likelihood or AUC. Of the 30 cytokines measured, higher levels of 13 decreased the effect of MLD on RILT, corresponding to a lower odds ratio for RILT per Gy MLD, while higher levels of 4 increased the association. CONCLUSIONS: Although the added prognostic benefit from cytokine data in our model was modest, understanding how clinical and biologic factors interact with the MLD-RILT relationship represents a novel framework for understanding and investigating the multiple factors contributing to radiation-induced toxicity

Tyrosine kinase inhibitor sensitive PDGFR. mutations in GIST:Two cases and review of the literature

Gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GISTs) are rare mesenchymal malignancies of the gastrointestinal tract. Most GISTs harbor a c-KIT (80%) or a PDGFR alpha (10%) mutation that leads to constitutive activation of the tyrosine kinase receptor. Response to treatment with tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKIs) is dependent on mutational status of the tumor. The most common mutation in PDGFR alpha, D842V, is known to be imatinib resistant. Almost all other PDGFR alpha mutations are imatinib sensitive. We describe two patients with a PDGFR alpha exon 18 mutated GIST responding to treatment with TKIs. One of these patients has a p.M844_S847 deletion, not previously described in relation with TKI treatment response. Mutations in circulating tumor DNA were detectable with digital droplet PCR in serial plasma samples taken during treatment and correlated with treatment response of both patients. Computer 3D-modeling of the PDGFR alpha kinase domain of these two variants revealed no direct interference in imatinib or sunitinib binding and no effect in its activity in contrast to the reported structure of the imatinib resistant D842V mutation. An overview is given of the literature regarding the evidence of patients with different PDGFR alpha mutated GISTs on response to TKIs. The findings emphasize the use of mutational analysis in GIST to provide patients personalized treatment. Detection of mutations in plasma is feasible and can provide real-time information concerning treatment response. We suggest to register GIST patients with these uncommon mutations in a prospective international database to understand the tumor biology and obtain more evidence of such mutations to predict treatment response

Improved prediction of radiation pneumonitis by combining biological and radiobiological parameters using a data-driven Bayesian network analysis

Grade 2 and higher radiation pneumonitis (RP2) is a potentially fatal toxicity that limits efficacy of radiation therapy (RT). We wished to identify a combined biomarker signature of circulating miRNAs and cytokines which, along with radiobiological and clinical parameters, may better predict a targetable RP2 pathway. In a prospective clinical trial of response-adapted RT for patients (n = 39) with locally advanced non-small cell lung cancer, we analyzed patients\u27 plasma, collected pre- and during RT, for microRNAs (miRNAs) and cytokines using array and multiplex enzyme linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA), respectively. Interactions between candidate biomarkers, radiobiological, and clinical parameters were analyzed using data-driven Bayesian network (DD-BN) analysis. We identified alterations in specific miRNAs (miR-532, -99b and -495, let-7c, -451 and -139-3p) correlating with lung toxicity. High levels of soluble tumor necrosis factor alpha receptor 1 (sTNFR1) were detected in a majority of lung cancer patients. However, among RP patients, within 2 weeks of RT initiation, we noted a trend of temporary decline in sTNFR1 (a physiological scavenger of TNFα) and ADAM17 (a shedding protease that cleaves both membrane-bound TNFα and TNFR1) levels. Cytokine signature identified activation of inflammatory pathway. Using DD-BN we combined miRNA and cytokine data along with generalized equivalent uniform dose (gEUD) to identify pathways with better accuracy of predicting RP2 as compared to either miRNA or cytokines alone. This signature suggests that activation of the TNFα-NFκB inflammatory pathway plays a key role in RP which could be specifically ameliorated by etanercept rather than current therapy of non-specific leukotoxic corticosteroids

Individual Participant Data Network Meta-Analysis of Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy or Chemoradiotherapy in Esophageal or Gastroesophageal Junction Carcinoma

PURPOSE: The optimal neoadjuvant treatment for resectable carcinoma of the thoracic esophagus (TE) or gastroesophageal junction (GEJ) remains a matter of debate. We performed an individual participant data (IPD) network meta-analysis (NMA) of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) to study the effect of chemotherapy or chemoradiotherapy, with a focus on tumor location and histology subgroups. PATIENTS AND METHODS: All, published or unpublished, RCTs closed to accrual before December 31, 2015 and having compared at least two of the following strategies were eligible: upfront surgery (S), chemotherapy followed by surgery (CS), and chemoradiotherapy followed by surgery (CRS). All analyses were conducted on IPD obtained from investigators. The primary end point was overall survival (OS). The IPD-NMA was analyzed by a one-step mixed-effect Cox model adjusted for age, sex, tumor location, and histology. The NMA was registered in PROSPERO (CRD42018107158). RESULTS: IPD were obtained for 26 of 35 RCTs (4,985 of 5,807 patients) corresponding to 12 comparisons for CS-S, 12 for CRS-S, and four for CRS-CS. CS and CRS led to increased OS when compared with S with hazard ratio (HR) = 0.86 (0.75 to 0.99), P = .03 and HR = 0.77 (0.68 to 0.87), P &lt; .001 respectively. The NMA comparison of CRS versus CS for OS gave a HR of 0.90 (0.74 to 1.09), P = .27 (consistency P = .26, heterogeneity P = .0038). For CS versus S, a larger effect on OS was observed for GEJ versus TE tumors (P = .036). For the CRS versus S and CRS versus CS, a larger effect on OS was observed for women (P = .003, .012, respectively). CONCLUSION:Neoadjuvant chemotherapy and chemoradiotherapy were consistently better than S alone across histology, but with some variation in the magnitude of treatment effect by sex for CRS and tumor location for CS. A strong OS difference between CS and CRS was not identified.</p

Neoadjuvant cisplatin and fluorouracil versus epirubicin, cisplatin, and capecitabine followed by resection in patients with oesophageal adenocarcinoma (UK MRC OE05): an open-label, randomised phase 3 trial.

BACKGROUND: Neoadjuvant chemotherapy before surgery improves survival compared with surgery alone for patients with oesophageal cancer. The OE05 trial assessed whether increasing the duration and intensity of neoadjuvant chemotherapy further improved survival compared with the current standard regimen. METHODS: OE05 was an open-label, phase 3, randomised clinical trial. Patients with surgically resectable oesophageal adenocarcinoma classified as stage cT1N1, cT2N1, cT3N0/N1, or cT4N0/N1 were recruited from 72 UK hospitals. Eligibility criteria included WHO performance status 0 or 1, adequate respiratory, cardiac, and liver function, white blood cell count at least 3 × 10(9) cells per L, platelet count at least 100 × 10(9) platelets per L, and a glomerular filtration rate at least 60 mL/min. Participants were randomly allocated (1:1) using a computerised minimisation program with a random element and stratified by centre and tumour stage, to receive two cycles of cisplatin and fluorouracil (CF; two 3-weekly cycles of cisplatin [80 mg/m(2) intravenously on day 1] and fluorouracil [1 g/m(2) per day intravenously on days 1-4]) or four cycles of epirubicin, cisplatin, and capecitabine (ECX; four 3-weekly cycles of epirubicin [50 mg/m(2)] and cisplatin [60 mg/m(2)] intravenously on day 1, and capecitabine [1250 mg/m(2)] daily throughout the four cycles) before surgery, stratified according to centre and clinical disease stage. Neither patients nor study staff were masked to treatment allocation. Two-phase oesophagectomy with two-field (abdomen and thorax) lymphadenectomy was done within 4-6 weeks of completion of chemotherapy. The primary outcome measure was overall survival, and primary and safety analyses were done in the intention-to-treat population. This trial is registered with the ISRCTN registry (number 01852072) and ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT00041262), and is completed. FINDINGS: Between Jan 13, 2005, and Oct 31, 2011, 897 patients were recruited and 451 were assigned to the CF group and 446 to the ECX group. By Nov 14, 2016, 327 (73%) of 451 patients in the CF group and 302 (68%) of 446 in the ECX group had died. Median survival was 23·4 months (95% CI 20·6-26·3) with CF and 26·1 months (22·5-29·7) with ECX (hazard ratio 0·90 (95% CI 0·77-1·05, p=0·19). No unexpected chemotherapy toxicity was seen, and neutropenia was the most commonly reported event (grade 3 or 4 neutropenia: 74 [17%] of 446 patients in the CF group vs 101 [23%] of 441 people in the ECX group). The proportions of patients with postoperative complications (224 [56%] of 398 people for whom data were available in the CF group and 233 [62%] of 374 in the ECX group; p=0·089) were similar between the two groups. One patient in the ECX group died of suspected treatment-related neutropenic sepsis. INTERPRETATION: Four cycles of neoadjuvant ECX compared with two cycles of CF did not increase survival, and cannot be considered standard of care. Our study involved a large number of centres and detailed protocol with comprehensive prospective assessment of health-related quality of life in a patient population confined to people with adenocarcinomas of the oesophagus and gastro-oesophageal junction (Siewert types 1 and 2). Alternative chemotherapy regimens and neoadjuvant chemoradiation are being investigated to improve outcomes for patients with oesophageal carcinoma. FUNDING: Cancer Research UK and Medical Research Council Clinical Trials Unit at University College London

Peptide-Pulsed Dendritic Cells Induce the Hepatitis C Viral Epitope-Specific Responses of Naïve Human T Cells

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is a major cause of liver disease. Spontaneous resolution of infection is associated with broad, MHC class I- (CD8+) and class II-restricted (CD4+) T cell responses to multiple viral epitopes. Only 20% of patients clear infection spontaneously, however, most develop chronic disease. The response to chemotherapy varies; therapeutic vaccination offers an additional treatment strategy. To date, therapeutic vaccines have demonstrated only limited success in clinical trials. Vector-mediated vaccination with multi-epitope-expressing DNA constructs provides an improved approach. Highly-conserved, HLA-A2-restricted HCV epitopes and HLA-DRB1-restricted immunogenic consensus sequences (ICS, each composed of multiple overlapping and highly conserved epitopes) were predicted using bioinformatics tools and synthesized as peptides. HLA binding activity was determined in competitive binding assays. Immunogenicity and the ability of each peptide to stimulate naïve human T cell recognition and IFN-γ production were assessed in cultures of total PBMCs and in co-cultures composed of peptide-pulsed dendritic cells (DCs) and purified T lymphocytes, cell populations derived from normal blood donors. Essentially all predicted HLA-A2-restricted epitopes and HLA-DRB1-restricted ICS exhibited HLA binding activity and the ability to elicit immune recognition and IFN-γ production by naïve human T cells. The ability of DCs pulsed with these highly-conserved HLA-A2- and -DRB1-restricted peptides to induce naïve human T cell reactivity and IFN-γ production ex vivo demonstrates the potential efficacy of a multi-epitope-based HCV vaccine targeted to dendritic cells