Inferring Long-term Dynamics of Ecological Communities Using Combinatorics

In an increasingly changing world, predicting the fate of species across the globe has become a major concern. Understanding how the population dynamics of various species and communities will unfold requires predictive tools that experimental data alone can not capture. Here, we introduce our combinatorial framework, Widespread Ecological Networks and their Dynamical Signatures (WENDyS) which, using data on the relative strengths of interactions and growth rates within a community of species predicts all possible long-term outcomes of the community. To this end, WENDyS partitions the multidimensional parameter space (formed by the strengths of interactions and growth rates) into a finite number of regions, each corresponding to a unique set of coarse population dynamics. Thus, WENDyS ultimately creates a library of all possible outcomes for the community. On the one hand, our framework avoids the typical ``parameter sweeps'' that have become ubiquitous across other forms of mathematical modeling, which can be computationally expensive for ecologically realistic models and examples. On the other hand, WENDyS opens the opportunity for interdisciplinary teams to use standard experimental data (i.e., strengths of interactions and growth rates) to filter down the possible end states of a community. To demonstrate the latter, here we present a case study from the Indonesian Coral Reef. We analyze how different interactions between anemone and anemonefish species lead to alternative stable states for the coral reef community, and how competition can increase the chance of exclusion for one or more species. WENDyS, thus, can be used to anticipate ecological outcomes and test the effectiveness of management (e.g., conservation) strategies.Comment: 25 pages, 9 figure

Resource allocation by the marine cyanobacterium Synechococcus WH8102 in response to different nutrient supply ratios

Differences in relative availability of nitrate vs. phosphate may contribute to regional variations in plankton elemental stoichiometry. As a representative of the globally abundant marine Synechococcus, strain WH8102 was grown in 16 chemostats up to 52  d at a fixed growth rate with nitrogen–phosphorus ratios (N : Psupply) of 1–50. Initially, the phosphate and nitrate concentrations in the vessel decreased when the respective nutrient was limiting. Cell growth generally stabilized, although several chemostats had apparent oscillations in biomass. We observed extensive plasticity in the elemental content and ratios. N : Pcell matched the supply values between N : Psupply 5 and 20. The C : Pcell followed a similar trend. In contrast, the mean C : Ncell was 6.8 and did not vary as a function of supply ratios. We also observed that induction of alkaline phosphatase, the fraction of P allocated to nucleic acids, and the lipid sulfoquinovosyldiacylglycerol : phosphatidyglycerol ratio inversely correlated with P availability. Our results suggest that this extensive plasticity in the elemental content and ratios depends both on the external nutrient availability as well as past growth history. Thus, our study provides a quantitative understanding of the regulation of the elemental stoichiometry of an abundant ocean phytoplankton lineage

Quantitative Analysis of Bloggers Collective Behavior Powered by Emotions

Large-scale data resulting from users online interactions provide the ultimate source of information to study emergent social phenomena on the Web. From individual actions of users to observable collective behaviors, different mechanisms involving emotions expressed in the posted text play a role. Here we combine approaches of statistical physics with machine-learning methods of text analysis to study emergence of the emotional behavior among Web users. Mapping the high-resolution data from digg.com onto bipartite network of users and their comments onto posted stories, we identify user communities centered around certain popular posts and determine emotional contents of the related comments by the emotion-classifier developed for this type of texts. Applied over different time periods, this framework reveals strong correlations between the excess of negative emotions and the evolution of communities. We observe avalanches of emotional comments exhibiting significant self-organized critical behavior and temporal correlations. To explore robustness of these critical states, we design a network automaton model on realistic network connections and several control parameters, which can be inferred from the dataset. Dissemination of emotions by a small fraction of very active users appears to critically tune the collective states

Self-organization without conservation: true or just apparent scale-invariance?

The existence of true scale-invariance in slowly driven models of self-organized criticality without a conservation law, as forest-fires or earthquake automata, is scrutinized in this paper. By using three different levels of description - (i) a simple mean field, (ii) a more detailed mean-field description in terms of a (self-organized) branching processes, and (iii) a full stochastic representation in terms of a Langevin equation-, it is shown on general grounds that non-conserving dynamics does not lead to bona fide criticality. Contrarily to conserving systems, a parameter, which we term "re-charging" rate (e.g. the tree-growth rate in forest-fire models), needs to be fine-tuned in non-conserving systems to obtain criticality. In the infinite size limit, such a fine-tuning of the loading rate is easy to achieve, as it emerges by imposing a second separation of time-scales but, for any finite size, a precise tuning is required to achieve criticality and a coherent finite-size scaling picture. Using the approaches above, we shed light on the common mechanisms by which "apparent criticality" is observed in non-conserving systems, and explain in detail (both qualitatively and quantitatively) the difference with respect to true criticality obtained in conserving systems. We propose to call this self-organized quasi-criticality (SOqC). Some of the reported results are already known and some of them are new. We hope the unified framework presented here helps to elucidate the confusing and contradictory literature in this field. In a second accompanying paper, we shall discuss the implications of the general results obtained here for models of neural avalanches in Neuroscience for which self-organized scale-invariance in the absence of conservation has been claimed.Comment: 40 pages, 7 figures

Simplest nonequilibrium phase transition into an absorbing state

We study in further detail particle models displaying a boundary-induced absorbing state phase transition [Phys. Rev. E. {\bf 65}, 046104 (2002) and Phys. Rev. Lett. {\bf 100}, 165701 (2008)] . These are one-dimensional systems consisting of a single site (the boundary) where creation and annihilation of particles occur and a bulk where particles move diffusively. We study different versions of these models, and confirm that, except for one exactly solvable bosonic variant exhibiting a discontinuous transition and trivial exponents, all the others display non-trivial behavior, with critical exponents differing from their mean-field values, representing a universality class. Finally, the relation of these systems with a $(0+1)$-dimensional non-Markovian process is discussed.Comment: 9 pages, 7 figures, minor change

Quasi-Neutral theory of epidemic outbreaks

Some epidemics have been empirically observed to exhibit outbreaks of all possible sizes, i.e., to be scalefree or scale-invariant. Different explanations for this finding have been put forward; among them there is a model for "accidental pathogens" which leads to power-law distributed outbreaks without apparent need of parameter fine tuning. This model has been claimed to be related to self-organized criticality, and its critical properties have been conjectured to be related to directed percolation. Instead, we show that this is a (quasi) neutral model, analogous to those used in Population Genetics and Ecology, with the same critical behavior as the voter-model, i.e. the theory of accidental pathogens is a (quasi)-neutral theory. This analogy allows us to explain all the system phenomenology, including generic scale invariance and the associated scaling exponents, in a parsimonious and simple way.Comment: 13 pages, 6 figures Accepted for publication in PLoS ONE the text have been modified in orden to improve the figure's resolutio

Patchiness and Demographic Noise in Three Ecological Examples

Understanding the causes and effects of spatial aggregation is one of the most fundamental problems in ecology. Aggregation is an emergent phenomenon arising from the interactions between the individuals of the population, able to sense only -at most- local densities of their cohorts. Thus, taking into account the individual-level interactions and fluctuations is essential to reach a correct description of the population. Classic deterministic equations are suitable to describe some aspects of the population, but leave out features related to the stochasticity inherent to the discreteness of the individuals. Stochastic equations for the population do account for these fluctuation-generated effects by means of demographic noise terms but, owing to their complexity, they can be difficult (or, at times, impossible) to deal with. Even when they can be written in a simple form, they are still difficult to numerically integrate due to the presence of the "square-root" intrinsic noise. In this paper, we discuss a simple way to add the effect of demographic stochasticity to three classic, deterministic ecological examples where aggregation plays an important role. We study the resulting equations using a recently-introduced integration scheme especially devised to integrate numerically stochastic equations with demographic noise. Aimed at scrutinizing the ability of these stochastic examples to show aggregation, we find that the three systems not only show patchy configurations, but also undergo a phase transition belonging to the directed percolation universality class.Comment: 20 pages, 5 figures. To appear in J. Stat. Phy

Diffusion in stochastic sandpiles

We study diffusion of particles in large-scale simulations of one-dimensional stochastic sandpiles, in both the restricted and unrestricted versions. The results indicate that the diffusion constant scales in the same manner as the activity density, so that it represents an alternative definition of an order parameter. The critical behavior of the unrestricted sandpile is very similar to that of its restricted counterpart, including the fact that a data collapse of the order parameter as a function of the particle density is only possible over a very narrow interval near the critical point. We also develop a series expansion, in inverse powers of the density. for the collective diffusion coefficient in a variant of the stochastic sandpile in which the toppling rate at a site with $n$ particles is $n(n-1)$, and compare the theoretical prediction with simulation results.Comment: 21 page

A theoretical foundation for multi-scale regular vegetation patterns

Self-organized regular vegetation patterns are widespread and thought to mediate ecosystem functions such as productivity and robustness, but the mechanisms underlying their origin and maintenance remain disputed. Particularly controversial are landscapes of overdispersed (evenly spaced) elements, such as North American Mima mounds, Brazilian murundus, South African heuweltjies, and, famously, Namibian fairy circles. Two competing hypotheses are currently debated. On the one hand, models of scale-dependent feedbacks, whereby plants facilitate neighbours while competing with distant individuals, can reproduce various regular patterns identified in satellite imagery. Owing to deep theoretical roots and apparent generality, scale-dependent feedbacks are widely viewed as a unifying and near-universal principle of regular-pattern formation despite scant empirical evidence. On the other hand, many overdispersed vegetation patterns worldwide have been attributed to subterranean ecosystem engineers such as termites, ants, and rodents. Although potentially consistent with territorial competition, this interpretation has been challenged theoretically and empirically and (unlike scale-dependent feedbacks) lacks a unifying dynamical theory, fuelling scepticism about its plausibility and generality. Here we provide a general theoretical foundation for self-organization of social-insect colonies, validated using data from four continents, which demonstrates that intraspecific competition between territorial animals can generate the large-scale hexagonal regularity of these patterns. However, this mechanism is not mutually exclusive with scale-dependent feedbacks. Using Namib Desert fairy circles as a case study, we present field data showing that these landscapes exhibit multi-scale patterning-previously undocumented in this system-that cannot be explained by either mechanism in isolation. These multi-scale patterns and other emergent properties, such as enhanced resistance to and recovery from drought, instead arise from dynamic interactions in our theoretical framework, which couples both mechanisms. The potentially global extent of animal-induced regularity in vegetation-which can modulate other patterning processes in functionally important ways-emphasizes the need to integrate multiple mechanisms of ecological self-organization