The effects of changes in consumption composition and growth in recycling on decoupling household consumption from its waste footprint

Worldwide, household consumption has significantly increased in the last decades while its composition has significantly changed. In France, economic growth (and therefore consumption growth) is a political objective. On the contrary, waste policies rather target reduction, in particular as to waste generation and waste disposal. Accordingly, decoupling household consumption growth from its waste footprint is a requirement to simultaneously achieve economic and waste policy targets. In this context, this study aims at assessing the effects of both changes in the composition of consumption and growth in recycling rates on the waste footprint of French households. Three models are combined. Firstly, the macro-econometric model “NEMESIS” is used to elaborate prospective economic scenarios by 2020. Three scenarios of economic trajectories for France are built, exclusively modifying the total volume of household consumption. In the meantime, three scenarios of consumption patterns are built, respectively assuming that i) composition remains constant from 2008 to 2020, ii) trends in consumption observed from 1980 to 2010 apply to the period 2008-2020, iii) some final consumption expenditures increase at arbitrarily chosen rates. Moreover, two models are specifically designed in order to calculate the waste footprint of French household consumption in these cases of economic scenarios by 2020. In the first place, an Input-Output model extended to waste is built in order to quantify waste from economic activities induced by household consumption. Quantities of waste to treatments are also differentiated in the model, so that scenarios of recycling can be implemented together with economic scenarios. Secondly a complementary coefficient-based model is built to compute waste generation and treatment (in ktonnes of waste) as a function of household consumption (in Meuros). The results highlight that if consumption trends observed over the last 30 years continue over the period 2008-2020, then they would favor “relative” decoupling between consumption and waste footprint in terms of dry recyclables, mixed wastes and organic wastes, and “absolute” decoupling in terms of mineral wastes. Three scenarios of recycling are additionally assessed in the framework of the economic scenarios, respectively considering the increase in recycling of source-sorted waste fractions, the increase in recovery at sorting centers and the increase in source-segregation. This assessment highlights that the increase in recycling rates would globally limit the effects of consumption growth on the demand for non-mineral waste disposal induced by French households over the period 2008-2020. However, changes in production structures would be additionally required in order to significantly decouple household consumption from its “waste disposal footprint” over the period 2008-2020. Please click Additional Files below to see the full abstract

How do system-wide net-zero scenarios compare to sector model pathways for the EU? A novel approach based on benchmark indicators and index decomposition analyses

The use of scenarios and quantitative modelling to identify pathways for energy system transformations in line with the Paris targets is well established in the field of energy and climate policy. The resulting decarbonization pathways depend on both assumptions and the type of model used (e.g., integrated assessment models, energy system, macro-econometric or bottom-up sector models). The objective of this article is to analyze how energy demand sectors in system-wide net-zero scenarios for the EU compare to the results of sector-specific models. To this end, a novel approach referred to as “sectoral benchmarking” is developed and applied, combining the application of standard indicators such as energy intensity, electrification rate or carbon intensity with an index decomposition analysis. The combined approach allows visualizing how system-wide decarbonization pathways differ from the sector models\u27 pathways by bringing the model output in a harmonized format for an efficient comparison. The analysis compares pathways from four different modelling tools: two European system models, one of which is an energy system model (EU TIMES) and the other a macro-econometric model (NEMESIS); as well as two sector-specific models, for transport (ALADIN) and for the industry and building sectors (FORECAST). We evaluate the system model\u27s net-zero scenarios by comparing them to a corridor given by the sector models\u27 current policy and net-zero emission scenarios. This corridor represents what the sector models deem as plausible from their bottom-up perspective within the boundaries of current policies and ambitions to reach net-zero

Strategies for Sustainable Urban Development and Urban-Rural Linkages

An important driving force behind urban expansion is the growth of the urban population. But for Europe, this is not a sufficient explanation. The major trend is that European cities have become much less compact. Since the mid-1950s European cities have expanded on average by 78%, whereas the population has grown by only 33%. In the PLUREL project - an integrated project within the EU’s 6th Research Framework Programme - more than 100 researchers from 15 countries analysed the impacts of urban land consumption at a pan-European level and, through six European and one Chinese case studies, identified how land use conflicts and the pressure towards periurban areas can be strategically managed in different development and regulatory contexts. To summarise, the following strategies were identified as important steps towards more sustainable urban-rural futures: (i) better coordination of transport, land use and open space planning; (ii) urban containment and densification – development of a green compact city; (iii) preservation of blue and green infrastructure; and (iv) preservation of agricultural land and the promotion of local production. The need also remains to strengthen governance at the regional level while at the pan-European level there is clearly a need for more policy attention to be given to urban-rural linkages

Développement d'un module d'utilisation des sols pour le modèle économique appliqué NEMESIS : application des politiques européennes

This thesis aims to develop a land use module for the applied economic model NEMESIS which is a detailed model for European Union. This dissertation also proposes the use of the land use module with the NEMESIS model in order to analyse the effects of European policies especially their economic and land use impact. The first chapter describes, on one hand, the construction of a database on land use and, on another hand, explain the development of a land use module for the EU countries by using agricultural land supply and demand but also an modelling of urban land use. The second chapter regards, using two applications, the problem of scenario construction in applied modelling. A first scenario, constructed with an extrapolating approach, is presented and analysed. This scenario is also used as reference scenario for the assessment of European policies. A second application shows four scenario developed using an imaginative approach i.e. assuming different possibilities for the future change in main drivers. The third chapter presents and describes the functioning of four linked models which is used for the economic and environmental assessment of a European agriculture liberalisation with re-allocation of released funds either by consumer tax rebate or a subsidy to R&D investments. The linked models included (i) the NEMESIS model, (ii) the CAPRI model a detailed agricultural model, (iii) the EFISCEN model, a forest resource management model and(iv) the Dyna-CLUE model, a detailed model for land use allocation. Finally, the last chapter presents, after the construction of indicators about nutrient use in agriculture, the economic assessment of two European policies: firstly, a biodiversity conservation policy in forest area or in agricultural land and secondly a biofuel development policy at European level.Cette thèse a pour objet le développement d’un module d’utilisation des sols compatible avec le modèle NEMESIS, qui est un modèle économique détaillé de l’Union Européenne. Cette thèse a également pour objectif d’utiliser conjointement le modèle NEMESIS et le module d’allocation des sols pour analyser les effets de plusieurs politiques européennes et notamment leurs impacts sur l’économie et l’utilisation des sols. Le premier chapitre décrit d’une part la construction de la base de données d’utilisation des sols et d’autre part, explique le développement du module d’allocation des sols au niveau des États de l’Union Européenne, en utilisant des fonctions d’offre et de demande de terre agricole et un modèle d’expansion des terres urbaines. Le second chapitre traite, au travers de deux applications, du problème de la construction de scénarios en modélisation appliquée. Un premier scénario, construit suivant une approche dite tendancielle, est présenté de façon détaillée et analysé. Ce scénario sert également de référence pour les évaluations des politiques européennes. Une seconde application propose quatre scénarios élaborés suivant une approche dite « imaginative», c’est-à-dire en imaginant différentes possibilités d’évolution contrastée des principales variables motrices de la croissance économiques. Le troisième chapitre présente la construction et le fonctionnement d’une combinaison de différents modèles ou « chaîne de modèles ». Celle-ci sera utilisée pour l’évaluation économique et environnementale d’une politique de libéralisation de l’agriculture européenne avec ré-allocation des fonds aux contribuables ou à l’aide à la recherche et développement. Cette « chaîne de modèles » combinele modèle NEMESIS avec un modèle agricole détaillé (CAPRI), un modèle de gestion des forêts (EFISCEN )et un modèle détaillé d’allocation des sols (Dyna-CLUE). Enfin le dernier, et quatrième chapitre, présente, après la construction d’indicateurs sur l’utilisation des nutriments dans l’agriculture, l’évaluation des conséquences économiques de deux politiques européennes : d’une part, une politique de biodiversité caractérisée par l’augmentation des forêts protégées ou par une production agricole extensive et d’autre part une politique de soutien au développement des biocarburants au niveau européen

Scénarios de diminution du nucléaire : conséquences sur l’économie et l’emploi

Dans cet article, nous proposons une évaluation macroéconomique, pour la France, d'une réduction à 50 % de la part du nucléaire dans le mix électrique à l'horizon 2030 en l'isolant des politiques favorisant l'efficacité énergétique. Par rapport à un scénario de maintien du nucléaire, cette politique conduit tout d'abord à un supplément de croissance tiré par les dépenses d'investissement, suivi par une contraction du PIb de 0,6 %, à l'horizon 2030, en raison des effets prix

L’impact de la place du nucléaire en France sur les emplois

Avec une industrie représentant 0,7 % du PIB français et quelque 125 000 emplois, fournissant plus des trois quarts de la production électrique française, la place de l’industrie nucléaire, en France, est très importante. un changement majeur dans le mix électrique français, en défaveur de l’énergie nucléaire, entraînerait une perte d’emploi dans la filière, perte d’emploi qui serait néanmoins compensée par le développement des filières de substitution (EnR et thermique). L’effet net sur l’emploi (création ou destruction) résulterait d’une part de la capacité de la France à nationaliser la chaine de valeur dans ces nouvelles filières et d’autre part de l’impact sur le maintien de la capacité de l’industrie nucléaire française à exporter. Néanmoins, les conséquences sur l’emploi d’une sortie rapide du nucléaire se manifesteraient principalement par les effets induits. Ainsi, une augmentation des prix de l’électricité associée à une sortie du nucléaire aurait un impact d’une ampleur beaucoup plus importante sur l’emploi en France que les simples effets directs dans l’industrie électrique française

Forecasting of the Photovoltaic Electricity Production on a Sail Ship by Taking Account Shadow Effects

International audienceAutonomous sailing robots have virtually no duration limit in operation because the main source of energy, for propulsion, is the wind. This paper focuses on the IBOAT3, a 1.8 meters long sailing robot ship developed at ISAE-SUPAERO. The onboard electronic consumption (actuators, GPS, ...) is supplied by a Li-ion battery. A 100 W photovoltaic panel mounted on the roof is used to recharge the battery. Unfortunately, shadows of the sail decrease the amount of energy given by the sun. This paper deals with the forecasting of the harvestable electric power taking account the trajectory, the wind and different factors that may have an impact on the journey across the ocean

Assessment of the French metals demand induced by national consumption and its associated environmental footprint

International audienceTwo main characteristics of the circular economy (CE), as defined in the French strategy of energy transition towards a CE, are a resource efficient economy and a low carbon economy. To assess strategies to be implemented towards a CE, both of these characteristics have to be simultaneously assessed to avoid burden shifting. The aim of this work is to show how environmentally extended multiregional input output approaches (EEMRIO) can be used to do so. EEMRIO databases were developed to take into account the environmental impacts of international trades; they consist in the coupling of two tables respectively describing the industries interdependencies in a given region along with the interregional interdependencies and the environmental interventions related to each industry. In this work, the EEMRIO databases WIOD and EXIOBASE v3 are used to determine both the metal and carbon footprints due to metal extraction and production (namely the "metal carbon") induced by the French domestic consumption. Given their characteristics and their mathematical handling, the EEMRIO allow to access different types of results: the metal footprint and the metal carbon content of the products and services consumed domestically by France and the metal footprint and the metal carbon content of the economic activities induced by French domestic consumption. Following these indicators with WIOD, from 1995 to 2009, the total metal footprint of the French domestic consumption raised from 101 megatons to 143 megatons while the metal carbon footprint decreased from 38.6 megatons CO2eq to 32.9 megatons CO2eq. Moreover, most CO2 due to metal processing is emitted in France (the similar assessment performed with EXIOBASE v3 shows that this is due to iron and steel industries) while metals are no longer extracted in the French territory. As it is a bit more disaggregated, EXIOBASE v3 allows a more specific assessment of the metal sectors and its impacts, for example construction related products that contributes the most both to the metal footprint and to the metal carbon content. EEMRIO permits the environmental assessment of the consumption flux in a national or regional level. Here the assessment was made on metals, but studies on material and carbon footprints can also be made on other products or services. One of the main drawback of EEMRIO, that has to be kept in mind when assessing consumption scenarios, is the age of the data available in publicly available databases

Renewable Energy and Power Quality Journal (RE&PQJ) Forecasting of the Photovoltaic Electricity Production on a Sail Ship by Taking Account Shadow Effects

Autonomous sailing robots have virtually no duration limit in operation because the main source of energy, for propulsion, is the wind. This paper focuses on the IBOAT3, a 1.8 meters long sailing robot ship developed at ISAE-SUPAERO. The onboard electronic consumption (actuators, GPS, ...) is supplied by a Li-ion battery. A 100 W photovoltaic panel mounted on the roof is used to recharge the battery. Unfortunately, shadows of the sail decrease the amount of energy given by the sun. This paper deals with the forecasting of the harvestable electric power taking account the trajectory, the wind and different factors that may have an impact on the journey across the ocean