Causation in the Presence of Weak Associations

none1siDespite their observational nature, epidemiologic studies have been used to make inductive inferences about the causes of human diseases. In this context, I mainly consider the term “cause” in its cognitive (explanatory) meaning, that is, by detecting causal factors and identifying mechanisms of diseases...openBoffetta, P.Boffetta, P

Diffusion entropy and waiting time statistics of hard x-ray solar flares

We analyze the waiting time distribution of time distances $\tau$ between two nearest-neighbor flares. This analysis is based on the joint use of two distinct techniques. The first is the direct evaluation of the distribution function $\psi(\tau)$, or of the probability, $\Psi(tau)$, that no time distance smaller than a given $\tau$ is found. We adopt the paradigm of the inverse power law behavior, and we focus on the determination of the inverse power index $\mu$, without ruling out different asymptotic properties that might be revealed, at larger scales, with the help of richer statistics. The second technique, called Diffusion Entropy (DE) method, rests on the evaluation of the entropy of the diffusion process generated by the time series. The details of the diffusion process depend on three different walking rules, which determine the form and the time duration of the transition to the scaling regime, as well as the scaling parameter $\delta$. With the first two rules the information contained in the time series is transmitted, to a great extent, to the transition, as well as to the scaling regime. The same information is essentially conveyed, by using the third rules, into the scaling regime, which, in fact, emerges very quickly after a fast transition process. We show that the significant information hidden within the time series concerns memory induced by the solar cycle, as well as the power index $\mu$. The scaling parameter $\delta$ becomes a simple function of $\mu$, when memory is annihilated. Thus, the three walking rules yield a unique and precise value of $\mu$ if the memory is wisely taken under control, or cancelled by shuffling the data. All this makes compelling the conclusion that $\mu = 2.138 \pm 0.01$.Comment: 23 pages, 13 figure

Pooled Analysis of Alcohol Dehydrogenase Genotypes and Head and Neck Cancer: A HuGE Review

Possession of the fast metabolizing alleles for alcohol dehydrogenase (ADH), ADH1B*2 and ADH1C*1, and the null allele for aldehyde dehydrogenase (ALDH), ALDH2*2, results in increased acetylaldehyde levels and is hypothesized to increase the risk of head and neck cancer. To examine this association, the authors undertook a Human Genome Epidemiology review on these three genes and a pooled analysis of published studies on ADH1C. The majority of Asians had the fast ADH1B*2 and ADH1C*1 alleles, while the majority of Caucasians had the slow ADH1B*1/1 and ADH1C*1/2 genotypes. The ALDH2*2 null allele was frequently observed among Asians, though it was rarely observed in other populations. In a pooled analysis of data from seven case-control studies with a total of 1,325 cases and 1,760 controls, an increased risk of head and neck cancer was not observed for the ADH1C*1/2 genotype (odds ratio = 1.00, 95% confidence interval: 0.81, 1.23) or the ADH1C*1/1 genotype (odds ratio = 1.14, 95% confidence interval: 0.92, 1.41). Increased relative risks of head and neck cancer were reported for the ADH1B*1/1 and ALDH2*1/2 genotypes in several studies. Recommendations for future studies include larger sample sizes and incorporation of relevant ADH and ALDH genes simultaneously, as well as other genes. These considerations suggest the potential for the organization of a consortium of investigators conducting studies in this fiel

Comparison of general obesity and measures of body fat distribution in older adults in relation to cancer risk: meta-analysis of individual participant data of seven prospective cohorts in Europe

Background: We evaluated the associations of anthropometric indicators of general obesity (body mass index, BMI), an established risk factor of various cancer, and body fat distribution (waist circumference, WC; hip circumference, HC; and waist-to- hip ratio, WHR), which may better reflect metabolic complications of obesity, with total obesity-related and site-specific (colorectal and postmenopausal breast) cancer incidence. Methods: This is a meta-analysis of seven prospective cohort studies participating in the CHANCES consortium including 18 668 men and 24 751 women with a mean age of 62 and 63 years, respectively. Harmonised individual participant data from all seven cohorts were analysed separately and alternatively for each anthropometric indicator using multivariable Cox proportional hazards models. Results: After a median follow-up period of 12 years, 1656 first-incident obesity-related cancers (defined as postmenopausal female breast, colorectum, lower oesophagus, cardia stomach, liver, gallbladder, pancreas, endometrium, ovary, and kidney) had occurred in men and women. In the meta-analysis of all studies, associations between indicators of adiposity, per s.d. increment, and risk for all obesity-related cancers combined yielded the following summary hazard ratios: 1.11 (95% CI 1.02–1.21) for BMI, 1.13 (95% CI 1.04–1.23) for WC, 1.09 (95% CI 0.98–1.21) for HC, and 1.15 (95% CI 1.00–1.32) for WHR. Increases in risk for colorectal cancer were 16%, 21%, 15%, and 20%, respectively per s.d. of BMI, WC, HC, and WHR. Effect modification by hormone therapy (HT) use was observed for postmenopausal breast cancer ( P interaction o 0.001), where never HT users showed an B 20% increased risk per s.d. of BMI, WC, and HC compared to ever users. Conclusions: BMI, WC, HC, and WHR show comparable positive associations with obesity-related cancers combined and with colorectal cancer in older adults. For postmenopausal breast cancer we report evidence for effect modification by HT use

Mendelian randomization study of adiposity-related traits and risk of breast, ovarian, prostate, lung and colorectal cancer

Background: Adiposity traits have been associated with risk of many cancers in observational studies, but whether these associations are causal is unclear. Mendelian randomization (MR) uses genetic predictors of risk factors as instrumental variables to eliminate reverse causation and reduce confounding bias. We performed MR analyses to assess the possible causal relationship of birthweight, childhood and adult body mass index (BMI), and waist-hip ratio (WHR) on the risks of breast, ovarian, prostate, colorectal and lung cancers. Methods: We tested the association between genetic risk scores and each trait using summary statistics from published genome-wide association studies (GWAS) and from 51 537 cancer cases and 61 600 controls in the Genetic Associations and Mechanisms in Oncology (GAME-ON) Consortium. Results: We found an inverse association between the genetic score for childhood BMI and risk of breast cancer [odds ratio (OR)=0.71 per standard deviation (s.d.) increase in childhood BMI; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.60, 0.80; P=6.5×10-5). We also found the genetic score for adult BMI to be inversely associated with breast cancer risk (OR=0.66 per s.d. increase in BMI; 95% CI: 0.57, 0.77; P=2.5×10-7), and positively associated with ovarian cancer (OR=1.35; 95% CI: 1.05, 1.72; P=0.017), lung cancer (OR=1.27; 95% CI: 1.09, 1.49; P=2.9×10-3) and colorectal cancer (OR=1.39; 95% CI: 1.06, 1.82, P=0.016). The inverse association between genetically predicted adult BMI and breast cancer risk remained even after adjusting for directional pleiotropy via MR-Egger regression. Conclusions: Findings from this study provide additional understandings of the complex relationship between adiposity and cancer risks. Our results for breast and lung cancer are particularly interesting, given previous reports of effect heterogeneity by menopausal status and smoking status.</p

Smokeless Tobacco Use and the Risk of Head and Neck Cancer: Pooled Analysis of US Studies in the INHANCE Consortium

Previous studies on smokeless tobacco use and head and neck cancer (HNC) have found inconsistent and often imprecise estimates, with limited control for cigarette smoking. Using pooled data from 11 US case-control studies (1981–2006) of oral, pharyngeal, and laryngeal cancers (6,772 cases and 8,375 controls) in the International Head and Neck Cancer Epidemiology (INHANCE) Consortium, we applied hierarchical logistic regression to estimate odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals for ever use, frequency of use, and duration of use of snuff and chewing tobacco separately for never and ever cigarette smokers. Ever use (versus never use) of snuff was strongly associated with HNC among never cigarette smokers (odds ratio (OR) = 1.71, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.08, 2.70), particularly for oral cavity cancers (OR = 3.01, 95% CI: 1.63, 5.55). Although ever (versus never) tobacco chewing was weakly associated with HNC among never cigarette smokers (OR = 1.20, 95% CI: 0.81, 1.77), analyses restricted to cancers of the oral cavity showed a stronger association (OR = 1.81, 95% CI: 1.04, 3.17). Few or no associations between each type of smokeless tobacco and HNC were observed among ever cigarette smokers, possibly reflecting residual confounding by smoking. Smokeless tobacco use appears to be associated with HNC, especially oral cancers, with snuff being more strongly associated than chewing tobacco

Mouthwash use and cancer of the head and neck: a pooled analysis from the International Head and Neck Cancer Epidemiology Consortium

Most mouthwashes contain alcohol, a known cause of head and neck cancer (oral cavity, pharynx, larynx), likely through the carcinogenic activity of acetaldehyde, formed in the oral cavity from alcohol

Mouthwash use and cancer of the head and neck: a pooled analysis from the International Head and Neck Cancer Epidemiology Consortium (INHANCE)

Most mouthwashes contain alcohol, a known cause of head and neck cancer (oral cavity, pharynx, larynx), likely through the carcinogenic activity of acetaldehyde, formed in the oral cavity from alcohol. We carried out a pooled analysis of 8981 cases of head and neck cancer and 10090 controls from 12 case-control studies with comparable information on mouthwash use in the International Head and Neck Cancer Epidemiology Consortium. Logistic regression was used to assess the association of mouthwash use with cancers of the oral cavity, oropharynx, hypopharynx, and larynx, adjusting for study, age, sex, pack-years of tobacco smoking, number of alcoholic drinks/day, and education. Compared with never users of mouthwash, the odds ratio (OR) of all head and neck cancers was 1.01 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.94-1.08] for ever users, based on 12 studies. The corresponding ORs of cancer of the oral cavity and oropharynx were 1.11 (95% CI: 1.00-1.23) and 1.28 (95% CI: 1.06-1.56), respectively. OR for all head and neck cancer was 1.15 (95% CI: 1.01-1.30) for use for more than 35 years, based on seven studies (P for linear trend=0.01), and OR 1.31 (95% CI: 1.09-1.58) for use more than one per day, based on five studies (P for linear trend <0.001). Although limited by the retrospective nature of the study and the limited ability to assess risks of mouthwash use in nonusers of tobacco and alcohol, this large investigation shows potential risks for head and neck cancer subsites and in long-term and frequent users of mouthwash. This pooled analysis provides the most precise estimate of the association between mouthwash use and head and neck cancer

Fruit and vegetable consumption and lung cancer risk: updated information from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)

The association of fruit and vegetable consumption and lung cancer incidence was evaluated using the most recent data from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC), applying a refined statistical approach (calibration) to account for measurement error potentially introduced by using food frequency questionnaire data. Between 1992 and 2000, detailed information on diet and life-style of 478,590 individuals participating in EPIC was collected. During a median follow-up of 6.4 years, 1,126 lung cancer cases were observed. Multivariate Cox proportional hazard models were applied for statistical evaluation. In the whole study population, fruit consumption was significantly inversely associated with lung cancer risk while no association was found for vegetable consumption. In current smokers, however, lung cancer risk significantly decreased with higher vegetable consumption; this association became more pronounced after calibration, the hazard ratio (HR) being 0.78 (95% CI 0.620.98) per 100 g increase in daily vegetable consumption. In comparison, the HR per 100 g fruit was 0.92 (0.85-0.99) in the entire cohort and 0.90 (0.81-0.99) in smokers. Exclusion of cases diagnosed during the first 2 years of follow-up strengthened these associations, the HR being 0.71 (0.55-0.94) for vegetables (smokers) and 0.86 (0.78-0.95) for fruit (entire cohort). Cancer incidence decreased with higher consumption of apples and pears (entire cohort) as well as root vegetables (smokers). In addition to an overall inverse association with fruit intake, the results of this evaluation add evidence for a significant inverse association of vegetable consumption and lung cancer incidence in smokers. (C) 2007 Wiley-Liss, Inc