The Effects of Twitter Sentiment on Stock Price Returns

Social media are increasingly reflecting and influencing behavior of other complex systems. In this paper we investigate the relations between a well-know micro-blogging platform Twitter and financial markets. In particular, we consider, in a period of 15 months, the Twitter volume and sentiment about the 30 stock companies that form the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) index. We find a relatively low Pearson correlation and Granger causality between the corresponding time series over the entire time period. However, we find a significant dependence between the Twitter sentiment and abnormal returns during the peaks of Twitter volume. This is valid not only for the expected Twitter volume peaks (e.g., quarterly announcements), but also for peaks corresponding to less obvious events. We formalize the procedure by adapting the well-known "event study" from economics and finance to the analysis of Twitter data. The procedure allows to automatically identify events as Twitter volume peaks, to compute the prevailing sentiment (positive or negative) expressed in tweets at these peaks, and finally to apply the "event study" methodology to relate them to stock returns. We show that sentiment polarity of Twitter peaks implies the direction of cumulative abnormal returns. The amount of cumulative abnormal returns is relatively low (about 1-2%), but the dependence is statistically significant for several days after the events

Efficacy and safety of baricitinib or ravulizumab in adult patients with severe COVID-19 (TACTIC-R): a randomised, parallel-arm, open-label, phase 4 trial

Background From early in the COVID-19 pandemic, evidence suggested a role for cytokine dysregulation and complement activation in severe disease. In the TACTIC-R trial, we evaluated the efficacy and safety of baricitinib, an inhibitor of Janus kinase 1 (JAK1) and JAK2, and ravulizumab, a monoclonal inhibitor of complement C5 activation, as an adjunct to standard of care for the treatment of adult patients hospitalised with COVID-19. Methods TACTIC-R was a phase 4, randomised, parallel-arm, open-label platform trial that was undertaken in the UK with urgent public health designation to assess the potential of repurposing immunosuppressants for the treatment of severe COVID-19, stratified by a risk score. Adult participants (aged ≥18 years) were enrolled from 22 hospitals across the UK. Patients with a risk score indicating a 40% risk of admission to an intensive care unit or death were randomly assigned 1:1:1 to standard of care alone, standard of care with baricitinib, or standard of care with ravulizumab. The composite primary outcome was the time from randomisation to incidence (up to and including day 14) of the first event of death, invasive mechanical ventilation, extracorporeal membrane oxygenation, cardiovascular organ support, or renal failure. The primary interim analysis was triggered when 125 patient datasets were available up to day 14 in each study group and we included in the analysis all participants who were randomly assigned. The trial was registered on ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT04390464). Findings Between May 8, 2020, and May 7, 2021, 417 participants were recruited and randomly assigned to standard of care alone (145 patients), baricitinib (137 patients), or ravulizumab (135 patients). Only 54 (39%) of 137 patients in the baricitinib group received the maximum 14-day course, whereas 132 (98%) of 135 patients in the ravulizumab group received the intended dose. The trial was stopped after the primary interim analysis on grounds of futility. The estimated hazard ratio (HR) for reaching the composite primary endpoint was 1·11 (95% CI 0·62–1·99) for patients on baricitinib compared with standard of care alone, and 1·53 (0·88–2·67) for ravulizumab compared with standard of care alone. 45 serious adverse events (21 deaths) were reported in the standard-of-care group, 57 (24 deaths) in the baricitinib group, and 60 (18 deaths) in the ravulizumab group. Interpretation Neither baricitinib nor ravulizumab, as administered in this study, was effective in reducing disease severity in patients selected for severe COVID-19. Safety was similar between treatments and standard of care. The short period of dosing with baricitinib might explain the discrepancy between our findings and those of other trials. The therapeutic potential of targeting complement C5 activation product C5a, rather than the cleavage of C5, warrants further evaluation

Omecamtiv mecarbil in chronic heart failure with reduced ejection fraction, GALACTIC‐HF: baseline characteristics and comparison with contemporary clinical trials

Aims: The safety and efficacy of the novel selective cardiac myosin activator, omecamtiv mecarbil, in patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) is tested in the Global Approach to Lowering Adverse Cardiac outcomes Through Improving Contractility in Heart Failure (GALACTIC‐HF) trial. Here we describe the baseline characteristics of participants in GALACTIC‐HF and how these compare with other contemporary trials. Methods and Results: Adults with established HFrEF, New York Heart Association functional class (NYHA) ≥ II, EF ≤35%, elevated natriuretic peptides and either current hospitalization for HF or history of hospitalization/ emergency department visit for HF within a year were randomized to either placebo or omecamtiv mecarbil (pharmacokinetic‐guided dosing: 25, 37.5 or 50 mg bid). 8256 patients [male (79%), non‐white (22%), mean age 65 years] were enrolled with a mean EF 27%, ischemic etiology in 54%, NYHA II 53% and III/IV 47%, and median NT‐proBNP 1971 pg/mL. HF therapies at baseline were among the most effectively employed in contemporary HF trials. GALACTIC‐HF randomized patients representative of recent HF registries and trials with substantial numbers of patients also having characteristics understudied in previous trials including more from North America (n = 1386), enrolled as inpatients (n = 2084), systolic blood pressure < 100 mmHg (n = 1127), estimated glomerular filtration rate < 30 mL/min/1.73 m2 (n = 528), and treated with sacubitril‐valsartan at baseline (n = 1594). Conclusions: GALACTIC‐HF enrolled a well‐treated, high‐risk population from both inpatient and outpatient settings, which will provide a definitive evaluation of the efficacy and safety of this novel therapy, as well as informing its potential future implementation

Convalescent plasma in patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19 (RECOVERY): a randomised controlled, open-label, platform trial

SummaryBackground Azithromycin has been proposed as a treatment for COVID-19 on the basis of its immunomodulatoryactions. We aimed to evaluate the safety and efficacy of azithromycin in patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19.Methods In this randomised, controlled, open-label, adaptive platform trial (Randomised Evaluation of COVID-19Therapy [RECOVERY]), several possible treatments were compared with usual care in patients admitted to hospitalwith COVID-19 in the UK. The trial is underway at 176 hospitals in the UK. Eligible and consenting patients wererandomly allocated to either usual standard of care alone or usual standard of care plus azithromycin 500 mg once perday by mouth or intravenously for 10 days or until discharge (or allocation to one of the other RECOVERY treatmentgroups). Patients were assigned via web-based simple (unstratified) randomisation with allocation concealment andwere twice as likely to be randomly assigned to usual care than to any of the active treatment groups. Participants andlocal study staff were not masked to the allocated treatment, but all others involved in the trial were masked to theoutcome data during the trial. The primary outcome was 28-day all-cause mortality, assessed in the intention-to-treatpopulation. The trial is registered with ISRCTN, 50189673, and ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04381936.Findings Between April 7 and Nov 27, 2020, of 16 442 patients enrolled in the RECOVERY trial, 9433 (57%) wereeligible and 7763 were included in the assessment of azithromycin. The mean age of these study participants was65·3 years (SD 15·7) and approximately a third were women (2944 [38%] of 7763). 2582 patients were randomlyallocated to receive azithromycin and 5181 patients were randomly allocated to usual care alone. Overall,561 (22%) patients allocated to azithromycin and 1162 (22%) patients allocated to usual care died within 28 days(rate ratio 0·97, 95% CI 0·87–1·07; p=0·50). No significant difference was seen in duration of hospital stay (median10 days [IQR 5 to >28] vs 11 days [5 to >28]) or the proportion of patients discharged from hospital alive within 28 days(rate ratio 1·04, 95% CI 0·98–1·10; p=0·19). Among those not on invasive mechanical ventilation at baseline, nosignificant difference was seen in the proportion meeting the composite endpoint of invasive mechanical ventilationor death (risk ratio 0·95, 95% CI 0·87–1·03; p=0·24).Interpretation In patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19, azithromycin did not improve survival or otherprespecified clinical outcomes. Azithromycin use in patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19 should be restrictedto patients in whom there is a clear antimicrobial indication

Safety and Enhanced Immunogenicity of a Hepatitis B Core Particle Plasmodium falciparum Malaria Vaccine Formulated in Adjuvant Montanide ISA 720 in a Phase I Trial

Highly purified subunit vaccines require potent adjuvants in order to elicit optimal immune responses. In a previous phase I trial, an alum formulation of ICC-1132, a malaria vaccine candidate comprising hepatitis B core (HBc) virus-like particle containing Plasmodium falciparum circumsporozoite (CS) protein epitopes, was shown to elicit Plasmodium falciparum-specific antibody and cellular responses. The present study was designed as a single-blind, escalating-dose phase I trial to evaluate the safety and immunogenicity of single intramuscular doses of ICC-1132 formulated in the more potent water-in-oil adjuvant Montanide ISA 720 (ICC-1132/ISA 720). The vaccine was safe and well tolerated, with transient injection site pain as the most frequent complaint. All vaccinees that received either 20 μg or 50 μg of ICC-1132/ISA 720 developed antiimmunogen and anti-HBc antibodies. The majority of volunteers in these two groups developed sporozoite-specific antibodies, predominantly of opsonizing immunoglobulin G subtypes. Peak titers and persistence of parasite-specific antibody following a single injection of the ISA 720 formulated vaccine were comparable to those obtained following two to three immunizations with alum-adsorbed ICC-1132. Peripheral blood mononuclear cells of ICC-1132/ISA 720 vaccinees proliferated and released cytokines (interleukin 2 and gamma interferon) when stimulated with recombinant P. falciparum CS protein, and CS-specific CD4(+) T-cell lines were established from volunteers with high levels of antibodies to the repeat region. The promising results obtained with a single dose of ICC-1132 formulated in Montanide ISA 720 encourage further clinical development of this malaria vaccine candidate

Assessing the Role and Optimal Duration of Hormonal Treatment in Association with Salvage Radiation Therapy After Radical Prostatectomy: Results from a Multi-Institutional Study

BACKGROUND: The optimal duration of hormonal therapy (HT) when associated with postprostatectomy radiation therapy (RT) remains controversial. OBJECTIVE: To test the impact of HT duration among patients treated with postprostatectomy RT, stratified by clinical and pathologic characteristics. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: The study included 1264 patients who received salvage RT (SRT) to the prostatic and seminal vesicle bed at eight referral centers after radical prostatectomy (RP). Patients received SRT for either rising prostate-specific antigen (PSA) or PSA persistence after RP, defined as PSA ≥0.1ng/ml at 1mo after surgery. Administration of concomitant HT was at the discretion of the treating physician. OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS: The outcome of interest was clinical recurrence (CR) after SRT, as identified by imaging. Multivariable Cox regression analysis was used to test the association between CR and HT duration. We applied an interaction test between HT duration and baseline risk factors to assess the hypothesis that CR-free survival differed by HT duration according to patient profile. Three risk factors were prespecified for evaluation: pT stage ≥pT3b, pathologic Gleason ≥8, and PSA level at SRT >0.5 ng/ml. The relationship between HT duration and CR-free survival rate at 8yr was graphically explored according to the number of risk factors (0 vs 1 vs ≥2). RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS: Overall, 1125 men (89%) received SRT for rising PSA and 139 (11%) were treated for PSA persistence. Concomitant HT was administered to 363 patients (29%), with a median HT duration of 9mo. At median follow-up of 93mo after surgery, 182 patients developed CR. The 8-yr CR-free survival was 92%. On multivariable analysis, HT duration was inversely associated with the risk of CR (hazard ratio 0.95; p=0.022). A total of 531 (42%) patients had none of the prespecified risk factors, while 507 (40%) had one and 226 (18%) had two or more risk factors. The association between HT duration and CR was significantly different by risk factors (0 vs 1, p=0.001; 0 vs ≥2, p<0.0001). We observed a significant effect of HT duration for patients with two or more risk factors, for whom HT administration was beneficial when given for up to 36mo. This effect was attenuated among patients with one risk factor, with concomitant HT slightly beneficial when administered for a shorter time (<12mo). Conversely, for patients with no risk factors, the risk of CR remained low and constant regardless of HT duration. CONCLUSIONS: The oncologic benefit of HT duration among men receiving SRT for increasing PSA after RP depends on their clinical and pathologic characteristics. Our data suggested a significant effect of long-term HT for patients with two or more adverse features. Conversely, short-term HT was sufficient for patients with a single risk factor, whereas patients without any risk factors did not show a significant benefit from concomitant HT. PATIENT SUMMARY: We tested the impact of hormonal therapy (HT) duration during radiation therapy after radical prostatectomy. We identified three risk factors and observed a different impact of HT duration by clinical and pathologic characteristics. Patients with more adverse features benefit from long-term concomitant HT. On the contrary, for patients with a single risk factor, short-term HT may be reasonable. Patients without any risk factors did not show a significant benefit from concomitant HT.status: publishe

Gender, Nationality and Cultural Representations of Ireland: An Irish Woman's Place?

Ireland has struggled with its ‘feminine’ identity throughout its history. The so-called ‘chasmic dichotomy of male and female' is embedded in colonial and postcolonial constructions of Irishness and it continues to manifest itself in contemporary cultural representations of Ireland and Irishness. This study explores issues of gender and nationality via a reading of a 70-second television advertisement for Caffrey's Irish Ale, titled ‘New York’. The article suggests that, although colonial and postcolonial discourse on Ireland continues to perceive the ‘feminine’ in problematic terms, this is gradually changing as Irish women increasingly, in poet Eavan Boland's words, ‘open a window on those silences, those false pastorals, those ornamental reductions’ that have confined us

The impact of preferential trade agreements on governmental repression revisited

Previous research suggests that most treaties are ineffective in ensuring countries' compliance with human rights standards. It has been argued, however, that preferential trade agreements (PTAs) including 'hard' human rights standards can withhold economic benefits and, thus, can have a real potential to substantially reduce human rights violations. The following article questions this as existent work on the effects of PTAs on human rights standards neglects a selection process underlying the implementation of these treaties. Countries being aware of the 'shadow of the future' already take into account what may happen at the succeeding enforcement stage when establishing a particular PTA. This implies that states agree on 'hard' human rights standards in PTAs only if they have a general propensity to abide by human rights in the first place. For testing the empirical implications of their argument, the authors collected new data on PTAs in 1976/77-2009, and employ genetic matching techniques. The results support the theoretical argument that PTAs are unlikely to affect human rights compliance when controlling for the outlined selection problem. © 2012 Springer Science+Business Media New York