Inverse modeling of emissions for local photooxidant pollution: Testing a new methodology with kriging constraints

International audienceA new methodology for the inversion of anthropogenic emissions at a local scale is tested. The inversion constraints are provided by a kriging technique used in air quality forecast in the Paris area, which computes an analyzed concentration field from network measurements and the first-guess simulation of a CTM. The inverse developed here is based on the CHIMERE model and its adjoint to perform 4-D integration. The methodology is validated on synthetic cases inverting emission fluxes. It is shown that the information provided by the analyzed concentrations is sufficient to reach a mathematically acceptable solution to the optimization, even when little information is available in the measurements. As compared to the use of measurements alone or of measurements and a background matrix, the use of kriging leads to a more homogeneous distribution of the corrections, both in space and time. Moreover, it is then possible to double the accuracy of the inversion by performing two kriging-optimization cycles. Nevertheless, kriging analysis cannot compensate for a very important lack of information in the measurements

From Earth to Orbit: An assessment of transportation options

The report assesses the requirements, benefits, technological feasibility, and roles of Earth-to-Orbit transportation systems and options that could be developed in support of future national space programs. Transportation requirements, including those for Mission-to-Planet Earth, Space Station Freedom assembly and operation, human exploration of space, space science missions, and other major civil space missions are examined. These requirements are compared with existing, planned, and potential launch capabilities, including expendable launch vehicles (ELV's), the Space Shuttle, the National Launch System (NLS), and new launch options. In addition, the report examines propulsion systems in the context of various launch vehicles. These include the Advanced Solid Rocket Motor (ASRM), the Redesigned Solid Rocket Motor (RSRM), the Solid Rocket Motor Upgrade (SRMU), the Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME), the Space Transportation Main Engine (STME), existing expendable launch vehicle engines, and liquid-oxygen/hydrocarbon engines. Consideration is given to systems that have been proposed to accomplish the national interests in relatively cost effective ways, with the recognition that safety and reliability contribute to cost-effectiveness. Related resources, including technology, propulsion test facilities, and manufacturing capabilities are also discussed

Instrumental variable analysis using offspring BMI in childhood as an indicator of parental BMI in relation to mortality

Abstract Childhood BMI shows associations with adult mortality, but these may be influenced by effects of ill health in childhood on BMI and later mortality. To avoid this, we used offspring childhood BMI as an instrumental variable (IV) for own BMI in relation to mortality and compared it with conventional associations of own childhood BMI and own mortality. We included 36,097 parent–offspring pairs with measured heights and weights from the Copenhagen School Health Records Register and register-based information on death. Hazard ratios (HR) were estimated using adjusted Cox regression models. For all-cause mortality, per zBMI at age 7 the conventional HR = 1.07 (95%CI: 1.04–1.09) in women and 1.02 (95%CI: 0.92–1.14) in men, whereas the IV HR = 1.23 (95%CI: 1.15–1.32) in women and 1.05 (95%CI: 0.94–1.17) in men. Per zBMI at age 13, the conventional HR = 1.11 (95%CI: 1.08–1.15) in women and 1.03 (95%CI: 0.99–1.06) in men, whereas the IV HR = 1.30 (95%CI: 1.19–1.42) in women and 1.15 (95%CI: 1.04–1.29) in men. Only conventional models showed indications of J-shaped associations. Our IV analyses suggest that there is a causal relationship between BMI and mortality that is positive at both high and low BMI values

Circulating endothelial cell-derived extracellular vesicles mediate the acute phase response and sickness behaviour associated with CNS inflammation.

Brain injury elicits a systemic acute-phase response (APR), which is responsible for co-ordinating the peripheral immunological response to injury. To date, the mechanisms responsible for signalling the presence of injury or disease to selectively activate responses in distant organs were unclear. Circulating endogenous extracellular vesicles (EVs) are increased after brain injury and have the potential to carry targeted injury signals around the body. Here, we examined the potential of EVs, isolated from rats after focal inflammatory brain lesions using IL-1β, to activate a systemic APR in recipient naïve rats, as well as the behavioural consequences of EV transfer. Focal brain lesions increased EV release, and, following isolation and transfer, the EVs were sequestered by the liver where they initiated an APR. Transfer of blood-borne EVs from brain-injured animals was also enough to suppress exploratory behaviours in recipient naïve animals. EVs derived from brain endothelial cell cultures treated with IL-1β also activated an APR and altered behaviour in recipient animals. These experiments reveal that inflammation-induced circulating EVs derived from endothelial cells are able to initiate the APR to brain injury and are sufficient to generate the associated sickness behaviours, and are the first demonstration that EVs are capable of modifying behavioural responses

Exclusionary employment in Britain’s broken labour market

There is growing evidence of the problematic nature of the UK’s ‘flexible labour market’ with rising levels of in-work poverty and insecurity. Yet successive Governments have stressed that paid work is the route to inclusion, focussing attention on the divide between employed and unemployed. Past efforts to measure social exclusion have tended to make the same distinction. The aim of this paper is to apply Levitas et al’s (2007) framework to assess levels of exclusionary employment, i.e. exclusion arising directly from an individual’s labour market situation. Using data from the Poverty and Social Exclusion UK survey, results show that one in three adults in paid work is in poverty, or in insecure or poor quality employment. One third of this group have not seen any progression in their labour market situation in the last five years. The policy focus needs to shift from ‘Broken Britain’ to Britain’s broken labour market

Harnessing the social: state, crisis and (big) society

The paper analyses the UK government’s plans to create a social investment market. The Big Society as political economy is understood as a response to three aspects of a multi-faceted, global crisis: a crisis of capital accumulation; a crisis of social reproduction; and, a fiscal crisis of the state. While the neoliberal state is retreating from the sphere of social reproduction, further off-loading the costs of social reproduction onto the unwaged realms of the home and the community, it is simultaneously engaging in efforts to enable this terrain of social reproduction to be harnessed for profit. Key to this process are specific government policies, the creation of new financial institutions and instruments and the introduction of the metric of ‘social value’. Policies ostensibly aimed at resolving the crisis in ways that empower local communities, actually foster further financialisation and a deepening of capitalist disciplinary logics into the social fabric

Early intervention for adolescents with Patellofemoral Pain Syndrome - a pragmatic cluster randomised controlled trial

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Self-reported knee pain is highly prevalent among adolescents. As much as 50% of the non-specific knee pain may be attributed to Patellofemoral Pain Syndrome (PFPS). In the short term, exercise therapy appears to have a better effect than patient education consisting of written information and general advice on exercise or compared with placebo treatment. But the long-term effect of exercise therapy compared with patient education is conflicting. The purpose of this study is to examine the short- and long-term effectiveness of patient education compared with patient education and multimodal physiotherapy applied at a very early stage of the condition among adolescents.</p> <p>Methods/Design</p> <p>This study is a single blind pragmatic cluster randomised controlled trial. Four upper secondary schools have been invited to participate in the study (approximately 2500 students, aged 15-19 years). Students are asked to answer an online questionnaire regarding musculoskeletal pain. The students who report knee pain are contacted by telephone and offered a clinical examination by a rheumatologist. Subjects who fit the inclusion criteria and are diagnosed with PFPS are invited to participate in the study. A minimum of 102 students with PFPS are then cluster-randomised into two intervention groups based on which school they attend. Both intervention groups receive written information and education. In addition to patient education, one group receives multimodal physiotherapy consisting primarily of neuromuscular training of the muscles around the foot, knee and hip and home exercises.</p> <p>The students with PFPS fill out self-reported questionnaires at baseline, 3, 6, 12 and 24 months after inclusion in the study. The primary outcome measure is perception of recovery measured on a 7-point Likert scale ranging from "completely recovered" to "worse than ever" at 12 months.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>This study is designed to investigate the effectiveness of patient education compared with patient education combined with multimodal physiotherapy. If patient education and multimodal physiotherapy applied at an early stage of Patellofemoral Pain Syndrome proves effective, it may serve as a basis for optimising the clinical pathway for those suffering from the condition, where specific emphasis can be placed on early diagnosis and early treatment.</p> <p>Trial Registration</p> <p>clinicaltrials.gov reference: <a href="http://www.clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT01438762">NCT01438762</a></p

Costs Associated with Low Birth Weight in a Rural Area of Southern Mozambique

BACKGROUND: Low Birth Weight (LBW) is prevalent in low-income countries. Even though the economic evaluation of interventions to reduce this burden is essential to guide health policies, data on costs associated with LBW are scarce. This study aims to estimate the costs to the health system and to the household and the Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) arising from infant deaths associated with LBW in Southern Mozambique. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Costs incurred by the households were collected through exit surveys. Health system costs were gathered from data obtained onsite and from published information. DALYs due to death of LBW babies were based on local estimates of prevalence of LBW (12%), very low birth weight (VLBW) (1%) and of case fatality rates compared to non-LBW weight babies [for LBW (12%) and VLBW (80%)]. Costs associated with LBW excess morbidity were calculated on the incremental number of hospital admissions in LBW babies compared to non-LBW weight babies. Direct and indirect household costs for routine health care were 24.12 US$(CI 95$ (CI 95% 6.33; 10.72). Of the 3,322 live births that occurred in one year in the study area, health system costs associated to LBW (routine health care and excess morbidity) and DALYs were 169,957.61 US$ (CI 95% 144,900.00; 195,500.00) and 2,746.06, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: This first cost evaluation of LBW in a low-income country shows that reducing the prevalence of LBW would translate into important cost savings to the health system and the household. These results are of relevance for similar settings and should serve to promote interventions aimed at improving maternal care