North Atlantic seasonal hurricane prediction: underlying science and an evaluation of statistical models

Statistically-based seasonal hurricane outlooks for the North Atlantic were initiated by Colorado State University (CSU) in 1984, and have been issued every year since that time by CSU. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center and the UK-based Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) have the next longest records (1998-present) of continuous outlooks. This chapter describes how these three forecasts have evolved with time, and documents the approaches, the environmental fields, and the lead times which underpin the models’ operation. Some of the environmental parameters used in early seasonal outlooks are no longer employed, but new predictive fields have been found which appear to be more important for seasonal hurricane prediction. An assessment is made of the deterministic skill of the seasonal hurricane outlooks issued in real-time by CSU, NOAA, and TSR between 2003 and 2014. All methods show moderate-to-good skill for early August outlooks (prior to the most active portion of the hurricane season), low-to-moderate skill for outlooks issued in early June, and lesser skill for outlooks issued in early April. Overall, the TSR model has the most skillful predictions of Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), while NOAA has the best named storm predictions issued in early August

Interplay between pleiotropy and secondary selection determines rise and fall of mutators in stress response

Dramatic rise of mutators has been found to accompany adaptation of bacteria in response to many kinds of stress. Two views on the evolutionary origin of this phenomenon emerged: the pleiotropic hypothesis positing that it is a byproduct of environmental stress or other specific stress response mechanisms and the second order selection which states that mutators hitchhike to fixation with unrelated beneficial alleles. Conventional population genetics models could not fully resolve this controversy because they are based on certain assumptions about fitness landscape. Here we address this problem using a microscopic multiscale model, which couples physically realistic molecular descriptions of proteins and their interactions with population genetics of carrier organisms without assuming any a priori fitness landscape. We found that both pleiotropy and second order selection play a crucial role at different stages of adaptation: the supply of mutators is provided through destabilization of error correction complexes or fluctuations of production levels of prototypic mismatch repair proteins (pleiotropic effects), while rise and fixation of mutators occur when there is a sufficient supply of beneficial mutations in replication-controlling genes. This general mechanism assures a robust and reliable adaptation of organisms to unforeseen challenges. This study highlights physical principles underlying physical biological mechanisms of stress response and adaptation

Searching for Exoplanets Using a Microresonator Astrocomb

Detection of weak radial velocity shifts of host stars induced by orbiting planets is an important technique for discovering and characterizing planets beyond our solar system. Optical frequency combs enable calibration of stellar radial velocity shifts at levels required for detection of Earth analogs. A new chip-based device, the Kerr soliton microcomb, has properties ideal for ubiquitous application outside the lab and even in future space-borne instruments. Moreover, microcomb spectra are ideally suited for astronomical spectrograph calibration and eliminate filtering steps required by conventional mode-locked-laser frequency combs. Here, for the calibration of astronomical spectrographs, we demonstrate an atomic/molecular line-referenced, near-infrared soliton microcomb. Efforts to search for the known exoplanet HD 187123b were conducted at the Keck-II telescope as a first in-the-field demonstration of microcombs

A contemporaneous infrared flash from a long gamma-ray burst: an echo from the central engine

The explosion that results in a cosmic gamma-ray burst (GRB) is thought to produce emission from two physical processes -- the activity of the central engine gives rise to the high-energy emission of the burst through internal shocking and the subsequent interaction of the flow with the external environment produces long-wavelength afterglow. While afterglow observations continue to refine our understanding of GRB progenitors and relativistic shocks, gamma-ray observations alone have not yielded a clear picture of the origin of the prompt emission nor details of the central engine. Only one concurrent visible-light transient has been found and was associated with emission from an external shock. Here we report the discovery of infrared (IR) emission contemporaneous with a GRB, beginning 7.2 minutes after the onset of GRB 041219a. Our robotic telescope acquired 21 images during the active phase of the burst, yielding the earliest multi-colour observations of any long-wavelength emission associated with a GRB. Analysis of an initial IR pulse suggests an origin consistent with internal shocks. This opens a new possibility to study the central engine of GRBs with ground-based observations at long wavelengths.Comment: Accepted to Nature on March 1, 2005. 9 pages, 4 figures, nature12.cls and nature1.cls files included. This paper is under press embargo until print publicatio

Positive and negative well-being and objectively measured sedentary behaviour in older adults: evidence from three cohorts

Background: Sedentary behaviour is related to poorer health independently of time spent in moderate to vigorous physical activity. The aim of this study was to investigate whether wellbeing or symptoms of anxiety or depression predict sedentary behaviour in older adults. Method: Participants were drawn from the Lothian Birth Cohort 1936 (LBC1936) (n = 271), and the West of Scotland Twenty-07 1950s (n = 309) and 1930s (n = 118) cohorts. Sedentary outcomes, sedentary time, and number of sit-to-stand transitions, were measured with a three-dimensional accelerometer (activPAL activity monitor) worn for 7 days. In the Twenty-07 cohorts, symptoms of anxiety and depression were assessed in 2008 and sedentary outcomes were assessed ~ 8 years later in 2015 and 2016. In the LBC1936 cohort, wellbeing and symptoms of anxiety and depression were assessed concurrently with sedentary behaviour in 2015 and 2016. We tested for an association between wellbeing, anxiety or depression and the sedentary outcomes using multivariate regression analysis. Results: We observed no association between wellbeing or symptoms of anxiety and the sedentary outcomes. Symptoms of depression were positively associated with sedentary time in the LBC1936 and Twenty-07 1950s cohort, and negatively associated with number of sit-to-stand transitions in the LBC1936. Meta-analytic estimates of the association between depressive symptoms and sedentary time or number of sit-to-stand transitions, adjusted for age, sex, BMI, long-standing illness, and education, were β = 0.11 (95% CI = 0.03, 0.18) and β = − 0.11 (95% CI = − 0.19, −0.03) respectively. Conclusion: Our findings indicate that depressive symptoms are positively associated with sedentary behavior. Future studies should investigate the causal direction of this association

An Evaluation Model For Web-based 3D Mass Customization Toolkit Design

The development of geometric modelling technologies and web technologies provides the ability to present a virtual 3D product in a mass customization (MC) toolkit. Compared with 2D graphic toolkits, 3D toolkit design requires better consideration of individual customer needs, consumer and toolkit interaction, and also a means of integrating with the underlying technical infrastructure. However, there is currently no widely accepted model or criteria to regulate and evaluate 3D MC toolkit design. Given these considerations, in this paper we provide an evaluation model for web-based 3D toolkits and a heuristic evaluation of two representative commercial web-based 3D toolkits. The evaluation results indicate the usefulness and effectiveness of the model as a scale for evaluating 3D toolkits. It also reveals that despite a fair amount of effort that has been devoted to theoretical research, current 3D toolkits are still at an early development stage. We therefore conclude this paper by identifying and encouraging further topics and questions as directions for future research

Experts see it all: configural effects in action observation

Biological motion perception is influenced by observers’ familiarity with the observed action. Here we used classical dance as a means to investigate how visual and motor experience modulates perceptual mechanism for configural processing of actions. While some ballet moves are performed by only one gender, male and female dancers train together and acquire visual knowledge of all ballet moves. 24 expert ballet dancers (12 female) and matched non-expert participants viewed pairs of upright and inverted point light female and common dance movements. Visual discrimination between different exemplars of the same movement presented upright was significantly better in experts than controls, while no differences were found when the same stimuli were presented upside down. These results suggest expertise influences configural action processing. Within the expert group, effects were stronger for female participants than for males, while no differences were found between movement types. This observer gender effect could suggest an additional role for motor familiarity in action perception, over and above visual experience. Our results are consistent with a specific motor contribution to configural processing of action

Event-related alpha suppression in response to facial motion

This article has been made available through the Brunel Open Access Publishing Fund.While biological motion refers to both face and body movements, little is known about the visual perception of facial motion. We therefore examined alpha wave suppression as a reduction in power is thought to reflect visual activity, in addition to attentional reorienting and memory processes. Nineteen neurologically healthy adults were tested on their ability to discriminate between successive facial motion captures. These animations exhibited both rigid and non-rigid facial motion, as well as speech expressions. The structural and surface appearance of these facial animations did not differ, thus participants decisions were based solely on differences in facial movements. Upright, orientation-inverted and luminance-inverted facial stimuli were compared. At occipital and parieto-occipital regions, upright facial motion evoked a transient increase in alpha which was then followed by a significant reduction. This finding is discussed in terms of neural efficiency, gating mechanisms and neural synchronization. Moreover, there was no difference in the amount of alpha suppression evoked by each facial stimulus at occipital regions, suggesting early visual processing remains unaffected by manipulation paradigms. However, upright facial motion evoked greater suppression at parieto-occipital sites, and did so in the shortest latency. Increased activity within this region may reflect higher attentional reorienting to natural facial motion but also involvement of areas associated with the visual control of body effectors. © 2014 Girges et al

Lattice Boltzmann simulations of soft matter systems

This article concerns numerical simulations of the dynamics of particles immersed in a continuum solvent. As prototypical systems, we consider colloidal dispersions of spherical particles and solutions of uncharged polymers. After a brief explanation of the concept of hydrodynamic interactions, we give a general overview over the various simulation methods that have been developed to cope with the resulting computational problems. We then focus on the approach we have developed, which couples a system of particles to a lattice Boltzmann model representing the solvent degrees of freedom. The standard D3Q19 lattice Boltzmann model is derived and explained in depth, followed by a detailed discussion of complementary methods for the coupling of solvent and solute. Colloidal dispersions are best described in terms of extended particles with appropriate boundary conditions at the surfaces, while particles with internal degrees of freedom are easier to simulate as an arrangement of mass points with frictional coupling to the solvent. In both cases, particular care has been taken to simulate thermal fluctuations in a consistent way. The usefulness of this methodology is illustrated by studies from our own research, where the dynamics of colloidal and polymeric systems has been investigated in both equilibrium and nonequilibrium situations.Comment: Review article, submitted to Advances in Polymer Science. 16 figures, 76 page