Model-Informed Risk Assessment and Decision Making for an Emerging Infectious Disease in the Asia-Pacific Region

Background: Effective response to emerging infectious disease (EID) threats relies on health care systems that can detect and contain localised outbreaks before they reach a national or international scale. The Asia-Pacific region contains low and middle income countries in which the risk of EID outbreaks is elevated and whose health care systems may require international support to effectively detect and respond to such events. The absence of comprehensive data on populations, health care systems and disease characteristics in this region makes risk assessment and decisions about the provision of such support challenging.\ud \ud Methodology/principal findings: We describe a mathematical modelling framework that can inform this process by integrating available data sources, systematically explore the effects of uncertainty, and provide estimates of outbreak risk under a range of intervention scenarios. We illustrate the use of this framework in the context of a potential importation of Ebola Virus Disease into the Asia-Pacific region. Results suggest that, across a wide range of plausible scenarios, preemptive interventions supporting the timely detection of early cases provide substantially greater reductions in the probability of large outbreaks than interventions that support health care system capacity after an outbreak has commenced.\ud \ud Conclusions/significance: Our study demonstrates how, in the presence of substantial uncertainty about health care system infrastructure and other relevant aspects of disease control, mathematical models can be used to assess the constraints that limited resources place upon the ability of local health care systems to detect and respond to EID outbreaks in a timely and effective fashion. Our framework can help evaluate the relative impact of these constraints to identify resourcing priorities for health care system support, in order to inform principled and quantifiable decision making

Variation in outcome of hospitalised patients with out-of-hospital cardiac arrest from acute coronary syndrome : a cohort study

Background Each year, approximately 30,000 people have an out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) that is treated by UK ambulance services. Across all cases of OHCA, survival to hospital discharge is less than 10%. Acute coronary syndrome (ACS) is a common cause of OHCA. Objectives To explore factors that influence survival in patients who initially survive an OHCA attributable to ACS. Data source Data collected by the Myocardial Ischaemia National Audit Project (MINAP) between 2003 and 2015. Participants Adult patients who had a first OHCA attributable to ACS and who were successfully resuscitated and admitted to hospital. Main outcome measures Hospital mortality, neurological outcome at hospital discharge, and time to all-cause mortality. Methods We undertook a cohort study using data from the MINAP registry. MINAP is a national audit that collects data on patients admitted to English, Welsh and Northern Irish hospitals with myocardial ischaemia. From the data set, we identified patients who had an OHCA. We used imputation to address data missingness across the data set. We analysed data using multilevel logistic regression to identify modifiable and non-modifiable factors that affect outcome. Results Between 2003 and 2015, 1,127,140 patient cases were included in the MINAP data set. Of these, 17,604 OHCA cases met the study inclusion criteria. Overall hospital survival was 71.3%. Across hospitals with at least 60 cases, hospital survival ranged from 34% to 89% (median 71.4%, interquartile range 60.7–76.9%). Modelling, which adjusted for patient and treatment characteristics, could account for only 36.1% of this variability. For the primary outcome, the key modifiable factors associated with reduced mortality were reperfusion treatment [primary percutaneous coronary intervention (pPCI) or thrombolysis] and admission under a cardiologist. Admission to a high-volume cardiac arrest hospital did not influence survival. Sensitivity analyses showed that reperfusion was associated with reduced mortality among patients with a ST elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI), but there was no evidence of a reduction in mortality in patients who did not present with a STEMI. Limitations This was an observational study, such that unmeasured confounders may have influenced study findings. Differences in case identification processes at hospitals may contribute to an ascertainment bias. Conclusions In OHCA patients who have had a cardiac arrest attributable to ACS, there is evidence of variability in survival between hospitals, which cannot be fully explained by variables captured in the MINAP data set. Our findings provide some support for the current practice of transferring resuscitated patients with a STEMI to a hospital that can deliver pPCI. In contrast, it may be reasonable to transfer patients without a STEMI to the nearest appropriate hospital. Future work There is a need for clinical trials to examine the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of invasive reperfusion strategies in resuscitated OHCA patients of cardiac cause who have not had a STEMI. Funding The National Institute for Health Research Health Services and Delivery Research programme

Brief of Corporate Law Professors as Amici Curie in Support of Respondents

The Supreme Court has looked to the rights of corporate shareholders in determining the rights of union members and non-members to control political spending, and vice versa. The Court sometimes assumes that if shareholders disapprove of corporate political expression, they can easily sell their shares or exercise control over corporate spending. This assumption is mistaken. Because of how capital is saved and invested, most individual shareholders cannot obtain full information about corporate political activities, even after the fact, nor can they prevent their savings from being used to speak in ways with which they disagree. Individual shareholders have no “opt out” rights or practical ability to avoid subsidizing corporate political expression with which they disagree. Nor do individuals have the practical option to refrain from putting their savings into equity investments, as doing so would impose damaging economic penalties and ignore conventional financial guidance for individual investors

Multivariate discrimination and the Higgs + W/Z search

A systematic method for optimizing multivariate discriminants is developed and applied to the important example of a light Higgs boson search at the Tevatron and the LHC. The Significance Improvement Characteristic (SIC), defined as the signal efficiency of a cut or multivariate discriminant divided by the square root of the background efficiency, is shown to be an extremely powerful visualization tool. SIC curves demonstrate numerical instabilities in the multivariate discriminants, show convergence as the number of variables is increased, and display the sensitivity to the optimal cut values. For our application, we concentrate on Higgs boson production in association with a W or Z boson with H -> bb and compare to the irreducible standard model background, Z/W + bb. We explore thousands of experimentally motivated, physically motivated, and unmotivated single variable discriminants. Along with the standard kinematic variables, a number of new ones, such as twist, are described which should have applicability to many processes. We find that some single variables, such as the pull angle, are weak discriminants, but when combined with others they provide important marginal improvement. We also find that multiple Higgs boson-candidate mass measures, such as from mild and aggressively trimmed jets, when combined may provide additional discriminating power. Comparing the significance improvement from our variables to those used in recent CDF and DZero searches, we find that a 10-20% improvement in significance against Z/W + bb is possible. Our analysis also suggests that the H + W/Z channel with H -> bb is also viable at the LHC, without requiring a hard cut on the W/Z transverse momentum.Comment: 41 pages, 5 tables, 29 figure

Collaborative review of pilot projects to inform policy: A methodological remedy for pilotitis?

BACKGROUND In rural health and other health service development contexts, there is frustration with a reliance on pilot projects as a means of informing policy and service innovation. There is also an emerging recognition that existing research methods do not draw lessons from the failed sustainability that characterises many of these pilots and demonstration projects. DISCUSSION: This article describes critical aspects of the methodology of a successful collaborative, multi-method, systematic synthesis of exemplary primary health care pilot projects in rural and remote Australia, which synthesised principles from a number of pilot projects to inform policy makers and planners. Hallmarks of the method were: the nature of the source materials for the research, the subsequent research engagement with the actual pilot projects, the extent of collaboration throughout the study with end-users from policy and planning arenas, and the attention to procedural quality. SUMMARY: The methodology, while time consuming, has resulted in applied, policy-relevant findings, and evidence of consideration by policy-makers

Cross-species gene expression analysis of species specific differences in the preclinical assessment of pharmaceutical compounds

Animals are frequently used as model systems for determination of safety and efficacy in pharmaceutical research and development. However, significant quantitative and qualitative differences exist between humans and the animal models used in research. This is as a result of genetic variation between human and the laboratory animal. Therefore the development of a system that would allow the assessment of all molecular differences between species after drug exposure would have a significant impact on drug evaluation for toxicity and efficacy. Here we describe a cross-species microarray methodology that identifies and selects orthologous probes after cross-species sequence comparison to develop an orthologous cross-species gene expression analysis tool. The assumptions made by the use of this orthologous gene expression strategy for cross-species extrapolation is that; conserved changes in gene expression equate to conserved pharmacodynamic endpoints. This assumption is supported by the fact that evolution and selection have maintained the structure and function of many biochemical pathways over time, resulting in the conservation of many important processes. We demonstrate this cross-species methodology by investigating species specific differences of the peroxisome proliferatoractivator receptor (PPAR) a response in rat and human

Cost effectiveness of pediatric pneumococcal conjugate vaccines: a comparative assessment of decision-making tools

BACKGROUND: Several decision support tools have been developed to aid policymaking regarding the adoption of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) into national pediatric immunization programs. The lack of critical appraisal of these tools makes it difficult for decision makers to understand and choose between them. With the aim to guide policymakers on their optimal use, we compared publicly available decision-making tools in relation to their methods, influential parameters and results. METHODS: The World Health Organization (WHO) requested access to several publicly available cost-effectiveness (CE) tools for PCV from both public and private provenance. All tools were critically assessed according to the WHO's guide for economic evaluations of immunization programs. Key attributes and characteristics were compared and a series of sensitivity analyses was performed to determine the main drivers of the results. The results were compared based on a standardized set of input parameters and assumptions. RESULTS: Three cost-effectiveness modeling tools were provided, including two cohort-based (Pan-American Health Organization (PAHO) ProVac Initiative TriVac, and PneumoADIP) and one population-based model (GlaxoSmithKline's SUPREMES). They all compared the introduction of PCV into national pediatric immunization program with no PCV use. The models were different in terms of model attributes, structure, and data requirement, but captured a similar range of diseases. Herd effects were estimated using different approaches in each model. The main driving parameters were vaccine efficacy against pneumococcal pneumonia, vaccine price, vaccine coverage, serotype coverage and disease burden. With a standardized set of input parameters developed for cohort modeling, TriVac and PneumoADIP produced similar incremental costs and health outcomes, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios. CONCLUSIONS: Vaccine cost (dose price and number of doses), vaccine efficacy and epidemiology of critical endpoint (for example, incidence of pneumonia, distribution of serotypes causing pneumonia) were influential parameters in the models we compared. Understanding the differences and similarities of such CE tools through regular comparisons could render decision-making processes in different countries more efficient, as well as providing guiding information for further clinical and epidemiological research. A tool comparison exercise using standardized data sets can help model developers to be more transparent about their model structure and assumptions and provide analysts and decision makers with a more in-depth view behind the disease dynamics. Adherence to the WHO guide of economic evaluations of immunization programs may also facilitate this process. Please see related article: http://www.biomedcentral.com/1741-7007/9/55

Variation in hepatitis B immunization coverage rates associated with provider practices after the temporary suspension of the birth dose

BACKGROUND: In 1999, the American Academy of Pediatrics and U.S. Public Health Service recommended suspending the birth dose of hepatitis B vaccine due to concerns about potential mercury exposure. A previous report found that overall national hepatitis B vaccination coverage rates decreased in association with the suspension. It is unknown whether this underimmunization occurred uniformly or was associated with how providers changed their practices for the timing of hepatitis B vaccine doses. We evaluate the impact of the birth dose suspension on underimmunization for the hepatitis B vaccine series among 24-month-olds in five large provider groups and describe provider practices potentially associated with underimmunization following the suspension. METHODS: Retrospective cohort study of children enrolled in five large provider groups in the United States (A-E). Logistic regression was used to evaluate the association between the birth dose suspension and a child's probability of being underimmunized at 24 months for the hepatitis B vaccine series. RESULTS: Prior to July 1999, the percent of children who received a hepatitis B vaccination at birth varied widely (3% to 90%) across the five provider groups. After the national recommendation to suspend the hepatitis B birth dose, the percent of children who received a hepatitis B vaccination at birth decreased in all provider groups, and this trend persisted after the policy was reversed. The most substantial decreases were observed in the two provider groups that shifted the first hepatitis B dose from birth to 5–6 months of age. Accounting for temporal trend, children in these two provider groups were significantly more likely to be underimmunized for the hepatitis B series at 24 months of age if they were in the birth dose suspension cohort compared with baseline (Group D OR 2.7, 95% CI 1.7 – 4.4; Group E OR 3.1, 95% CI 2.3 – 4.2). This represented 6% more children in Group D and 9% more children in Group E who were underimmunized in the suspension cohort compared with baseline. Children in the reversal cohort in these groups remained significantly more likely to be underimmunized compared with baseline. In contrast, in a third provider group where the typical timing of the third dose was unchanged and in two other provider groups whose hepatitis B vaccination schedules were unaffected by the birth dose suspension, hepatitis B vaccination coverage either was maintained or improved. CONCLUSION: When the hepatitis B birth dose was suspended, provider groups that moved the first dose of vaccination to 5–6 months of age or later had decreases in hepatitis B vaccine coverage at 24 months. These findings suggest that as vaccine policy changes occur, providers could attempt to minimize underimmunization by adopting vaccination schedules that minimize delays in the recommended timing of vaccine doses

Varespladib and cardiovascular events in patients with an acute coronary syndrome: the VISTA-16 randomized clinical trial

IMPORTANCE: Secretory phospholipase A2(sPLA2) generates bioactive phospholipid products implicated in atherosclerosis. The sPLA2inhibitor varespladib has favorable effects on lipid and inflammatory markers; however, its effect on cardiovascular outcomes is unknown. OBJECTIVE: To determine the effects of sPLA2inhibition with varespladib on cardiovascular outcomes. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: A double-blind, randomized, multicenter trial at 362 academic and community hospitals in Europe, Australia, New Zealand, India, and North America of 5145 patients randomized within 96 hours of presentation of an acute coronary syndrome (ACS) to either varespladib (n = 2572) or placebo (n = 2573) with enrollment between June 1, 2010, and March 7, 2012 (study termination on March 9, 2012). INTERVENTIONS: Participants were randomized to receive varespladib (500 mg) or placebo daily for 16 weeks, in addition to atorvastatin and other established therapies. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: The primary efficacy measurewas a composite of cardiovascular mortality, nonfatal myocardial infarction (MI), nonfatal stroke, or unstable angina with evidence of ischemia requiring hospitalization at 16 weeks. Six-month survival status was also evaluated. RESULTS: At a prespecified interim analysis, including 212 primary end point events, the independent data and safety monitoring board recommended termination of the trial for futility and possible harm. The primary end point occurred in 136 patients (6.1%) treated with varespladib compared with 109 patients (5.1%) treated with placebo (hazard ratio [HR], 1.25; 95%CI, 0.97-1.61; log-rank P = .08). Varespladib was associated with a greater risk of MI (78 [3.4%] vs 47 [2.2%]; HR, 1.66; 95%CI, 1.16-2.39; log-rank P = .005). The composite secondary end point of cardiovascular mortality, MI, and stroke was observed in 107 patients (4.6%) in the varespladib group and 79 patients (3.8%) in the placebo group (HR, 1.36; 95% CI, 1.02-1.82; P = .04). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In patients with recent ACS, varespladib did not reduce the risk of recurrent cardiovascular events and significantly increased the risk of MI. The sPLA2inhibition with varespladib may be harmful and is not a useful strategy to reduce adverse cardiovascular outcomes after ACS. TRIAL REGISTRATION: clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT01130246. Copyright 2014 American Medical Association. All rights reserved

A Conserved Multi-Gene Family Induces Cross-Reactive Antibodies Effective in Defense against Plasmodium falciparum

BACKGROUND: Two related merozoite surface proteins, MSP3 and MSP6, have previously been identified as targets of antibody-dependent cellular inhibition (ADCI), a protective mechanism against Plasmodium falciparum malaria. Both MSP3 and MSP6 share a common characteristic small N-terminal signature amino-acid stretch (NLRNA/G), a feature similar to MSP3-like orthologs identified in other human and primate malaria parasites. METHODS/RESULTS: This signature amino-acid sequence led to the identification of eight ORFs contiguously located on P. falciparum chromosome 10. Our subsequent investigations on their expression, localization, sequence conservation, epitope sharing, immunogenicity and the functional role of antibodies in defense are reported here. Six members of P. falciparum MSP3-multigene family share similar sequence organization within their C-terminal regions, are simultaneously expressed as merozoite surface proteins and are highly conserved among parasite isolates. Each of these proteins is a target of naturally occurring antibodies effective at parasite killing in ADCI assays. Moreover, both naturally occurring antibodies and those generated by immunization display cross-reactivity with other members of the family and exhibit varied binding avidities. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The unusual characteristics of the MSP3 multi-gene family lead us to hypothesize that the simultaneous expression of targets eliciting cross-reactive antibody responses capable of controlling parasite densities could represent an immune process selected through evolution to maintain homeostasis between P. falciparum and human hosts; a process that allows the continuous transmission of the parasite without killing the host. Our observations also have practical consequences for vaccine development by suggesting MSP3 vaccine efficacy might be improved when combined with the various C-terminus regions of the MSP3 family members to generate a wider range of antibodies acting and to increase vaccine immunogenicity in varied human genetic backgrounds