Inferring late-Holocene climate in the Ecuadorian Andes using a chironomid-based temperature inference model

Presented here is the first chironomid calibration data set for tropical South America. Surface sediments were collected from 59 lakes across Bolivia (15 lakes), Peru (32 lakes), and Ecuador (12 lakes) between 2004 and 2013 over an altitudinal gradient from 150 m above sea level (a.s.l) to 4655 m a.s.l, between 0–17◦ S and 64–78◦ W. The study sites cover a mean annual temperature (MAT) gradient of 25 ◦ C. In total, 55 chironomid taxa were identified in the 59 calibration data set lakes. When used as a single explanatory variable, MAT explains 12.9% of the variance (λ1/λ2 =1.431). Two inference models were developed using weighted averaging (WA) and Bayesian methods. The best performing model using conventional statistical methods was a WA (inverse) model (R2jack= 0.890; RMSEPjack= 2.404 ◦C, RMSEP – root mean jack squared error of prediction; mean biasjack = −0.017 ◦C; max biasjack = 4.665 ◦C). The Bayesian method produced a model with R2jack = 0.909, RMSEPjack = 2.373 ◦C, mean jack biasjack = 0.598 ◦C, and max biasjack = 3.158 ◦C. Both models were used to infer past temperatures from a ca. 3000-year record from the tropical Andes of Ecuador, Laguna Pindo. Inferred temperatures fluctuated around modern-day conditions but showed significant departures at certain intervals (ca. 1600 cal yr BP; ca. 3000–2500 cal yr BP). Both methods (WA and Bayesian) showed similar patterns of temperature variability; however, the magnitude of fluctuations differed. In general the WA method was more variable and often underestimated Holocene temperatures (by ca. −7 ± 2.5 ◦C relative to the modern period). The Bayesian method provided temperature anomaly estimates for cool periods that lay within the expected range of the Holocene (ca. −3 ± 3.4 ◦C). The error associated with both reconstructions is consistent with a constant temperature of 20 ◦C for the past 3000 years. We would caution, however, against an over-interpretation at this stage. The reconstruction can only currently be deemed qualitative and requires more research before quantitative estimates can be generated with confidence. Increasing the number, and spread, of lakes in the calibration data set would enable the detection of smaller climate signals

The USNO-B Catalog

USNO-B is an all-sky catalog that presents positions, proper motions, magnitudes in various optical passbands, and star/galaxy estimators for 1,042,618,261 objects derived from 3,643,201,733 separate observations. The data were obtained from scans of 7,435 Schmidt plates taken for the various sky surveys during the last 50 years. USNO-B1.0 is believed to provide all-sky coverage, completeness down to V = 21, 0.2 arcsecond astrometric accuracy at J2000, 0.3 magnitude photometric accuracy in up to five colors, and 85% accuracy for distinguishing stars from non-stellar objects. A brief discussion of various issues is given here, but the actual data are available from http://www.nofs.navy.mil and other sites.Comment: Accepted by Astronomical Journa

Assessing proxy signatures of temperature, salinity, and hypoxia in the Baltic Sea through foraminifera-based geochemistry and faunal assemblages

We acknowledge funding through the Swedish Research Council (VR) (project no. 621-2011-5090), the German Research Council (project GR 3528/3-1), the Lamm Foundation, the Centre for Environmental and Climate Research at Lund University for Jeroen Groeneveld’s guest research stay, NERC grants NE4/G018502/1 and NE/G020310/1 to William E. N. Austin, and the University of Bremen for covering the article processing costs for this open-access publication.Current climate and environmental changes strongly affect shallow marine and coastal areas like the Baltic Sea. This has created a need for a context to understand the severity and potential outcomes of such changes. The context can be derived from paleoenvironmental records during periods when comparable events happened in the past. In this study, we explore how varying bottom water conditions across a large hydrographic gradient in the Baltic Sea affect benthic foraminiferal faunal assemblages and the geochemical composition of their calcite tests. We have conducted both morphological and molecular analyses of the faunas and we evaluate how the chemical signatures of the bottom waters are recorded in the tests of several species of benthic foraminifera. We focus on two locations, one in the Kattegat (western Baltic Sea) and one in Hano Bay (southern Baltic Sea). We show that seawater Mn/Ca, Mg/Ca, and Ba/Ca (Mn/Casw, Mg/Casw, and Ba/Casw) variations are mainly controlled by dissolved oxygen concentration and salinity. Their respective imprints on the foraminiferal calcite demonstrate the potential of Mn/Ca as a proxy for hypoxic conditions, and Ba/Ca as a proxy for salinity in enclosed basins such as the Baltic Sea. The traditional use of Mg-Ca as a proxy to reconstruct past seawater temperatures is not recommended in the region, as it may be overprinted by the large variations in salinity (specifically on Bulimina marginata), Mg/Casw, and possibly also the carbonate system. Salinity is the main factor controlling the faunal assemblages: a much more diverse fauna occurs in the higher-salinity (similar to 32) Kattegat than in the low-salinity (similar to 15) Hano Bay. Molecular identification shows that only Elphidium clavatum occurs at both locations, but other genetic types of both genera Elphidium and Ammonia are restricted to either low-or high-salinity locations. The combination of foraminiferal geochemistry and environmental parameters demonstrates that in a highly variable setting like the Baltic Sea, it is possible to separate different environmental impacts on the foraminiferal assemblages and therefore use Mn/Ca, Mg/Ca, and Ba/Ca to reconstruct how specific conditions may have varied in the past.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Severe Little Ice Age drought in the midcontinental United States during the Mississippian abandonment of Cahokia

Drought has long been suspected as playing an important role in the abandonment of pre-Columbian Native American settlements across the midcontinental United States between 1350 and 1450 CE. However, high-resolution paleoclimatic reconstructions reflecting local effective moisture (the ratio of precipitation to evaporation) that are located in proximity to Mississippi period (1050–1450 CE) population centers are lacking. Here, we present a 1600-year-long decadally resolved oxygen isotope (δ18O) record from Horseshoe Lake (Collinsville, IL), an evaporatively influenced oxbow lake that is centrally located within the largest and mostly densely populated series of Mississippian settlements known as Greater Cahokia. A shift to higher δ18O in the Horseshoe Lake sediment record from 1200 to 1400 CE indicates that strongly evaporative conditions (i.e., low effective moisture) were persistent during the leadup to Cahokia’s abandonment. These results support the hypothesis that climate, and drought specifically, strongly impacted agriculturally based pre-Columbian Native American cultures in the midcontinental US and highlights the susceptibility of this region, presently a global food production center, to hydroclimate extremes

The Molecular Biogeography of the Indo-Pacific: Testing Hypotheses With Multispecies Genetic Patterns

Aim: To test hypothesized biogeographic partitions of the tropical Indo-Pacific Ocean with phylogeographic data from 56 taxa, and to evaluate the strength and nature of barriers emerging from this test. \u3eLocation: The Indo-Pacific Ocean. Time Period: Pliocene through the Holocene. Major Taxa Studied: Fifty-six marine species. Methods: We tested eight biogeographic hypotheses for partitioning of the Indo-Pacific using a novel modification to analysis of molecular variance. Putative barriers to gene flow emerging from this analysis were evaluated for pairwise ΦST, and these ΦST distributions were compared to distributions from randomized datasets and simple coalescent simulations of vicariance arising from the Last Glacial Maximum. We then weighed the relative contribution of distance versus environmental or geographic barriers to pairwise ΦST with a distance-based redundancy analysis (dbRDA). Results: We observed a diversity of outcomes, although the majority of species fit a few broad biogeographic regions. Repeated coalescent simulation of a simple vicariance model yielded a wide distribution of pairwise ΦST that was very similar to empirical distributions observed across five putative barriers to gene flow. Three of these barriers had median ΦST that were significantly larger than random expectation. Only 21 of 52 species analysed with dbRDA rejected the null model. Among these, 15 had overwater distance as a significant predictor of pairwise ΦST, while 11 were significant for geographic or environmental barriers other than distance. Main Conclusions: Although there is support for three previously described barriers, phylogeographic discordance in the Indo-Pacific Ocean indicates incongruity between processes shaping the distributions of diversity at the species and population levels. Among the many possible causes of this incongruity, genetic drift provides the most compelling explanation: given massive effective population sizes of Indo-Pacific species, even hard vicariance for tens of thousands of years can yield ΦST values that range from 0 to nearly 0.5

The Costs of VAT: A Review of the Literature

This paper reviews the published literature on the definition and measurement of the administrative and compliance costs of taxation, with special reference to VAT (including evasion and fraud) in the European Union

The molecular biogeography of the Indo‐Pacific: Testing hypotheses with multispecies genetic patterns

Aim: To test hypothesized biogeographic partitions of the tropical Indo‐Pacific Ocean with phylogeographic data from 56 taxa, and to evaluate the strength and nature of barriers emerging from this test. Location: The Indo‐Pacific Ocean. Time period: Pliocene through the Holocene. Major taxa studied: Fifty‐six marine species. Methods: We tested eight biogeographic hypotheses for partitioning of the Indo‐ Pacific using a novel modification to analysis of molecular variance. Putative barriers to gene flow emerging from this analysis were evaluated for pairwise ΦST, and these ΦST distributions were compared to distributions from randomized datasets and simple coalescent simulations of vicariance arising from the Last Glacial Maximum. We then weighed the relative contribution of distance versus environmental or geographic barriers to pairwise ΦST with a distance‐based redundancy analysis (dbRDA). Results: We observed a diversity of outcomes, although the majority of species fit a few broad biogeographic regions. Repeated coalescent simulation of a simple vicariance model yielded a wide distribution of pairwise ΦST that was very similar to empirical distributions observed across five putative barriers to gene flow. Three of these barriers had median ΦST that were significantly larger than random expectation. Only 21 of 52 species analysed with dbRDA rejected the null model. Among these, 15 had overwater distance as a significant predictor of pairwise ΦST, while 11 were significant for geographic or environmental barriers other than distance. Main conclusions: Although there is support for three previously described barriers, phylogeographic discordance in the Indo‐Pacific Ocean indicates incongruity between processes shaping the distributions of diversity at the species and population levels. Among the many possible causes of this incongruity, genetic drift provides the most compelling explanation: given massive effective population sizes of Indo‐Pacific species, even hard vicariance for tens of thousands of years can yield ΦST values that range from 0 to nearly 0.5

An evaluation of gender equity in different models of primary care practices in Ontario

Background: The World Health Organization calls for more work evaluating the effect of health care reforms on gender equity in developed countries. We performed this evaluation in Ontario, Canada where primary care models resulting from reforms co-exist. // Methods: This cross sectional study of primary care practices uses data collected in 2005-2006. Healthcare service models included in the study consist of fee for service (FFS) based, salaried, and capitation based. We compared the quality of care delivered to women and men in practices of each model. We performed multi-level, multivariate regressions adjusting for patient socio-demographic and economic factors to evaluate vertical equity, and adjusting for these and health factors in evaluating horizontal equity. We measured seven dimensions of health service delivery (e.g. accessibility and continuity) and three dimensions of quality of care using patient surveys (n = 5,361) and chart abstractions (n = 4,108). // Results: Health service delivery measures were comparable in women and men, with differences ≤ 2.2% in all seven dimensions and in all models. Significant gender differences in the health promotion subjects addressed were observed. Female specific preventive manoeuvres were more likely to be performed than other preventive care. Men attending FFS practices were more likely to receive influenza immunization than women (Adjusted odds ratio: 1.75, 95% confidence intervals (CI) 1.05, 2.92). There was no difference in the other three prevention indicators. FFS practices were also more likely to provide recommended care for chronic diseases to men than women (Adjusted difference of -11.2%, CI -21.7, -0.8). A similar trend was observed in Community Health Centers (CHC). // Conclusions: The observed differences in the type of health promotion subjects discussed are likely an appropriate response to the differential healthcare needs between genders. Chronic disease care is non equitable in FFS but not in capitation based models. We recommend that efforts to monitor and address gender based differences in the delivery of chronic disease management in primary care be pursued.Funding for the original study on which this research is based was provided by the Ontario Ministry of Health and Long Term Care Primary Health Care Transition Fund. The views expressed in this report are the views of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the Ontario Ministry of Health and Long Term Care

US Cosmic Visions: New Ideas in Dark Matter 2017: Community Report

This white paper summarizes the workshop "U.S. Cosmic Visions: New Ideas in Dark Matter" held at University of Maryland on March 23-25, 2017.Comment: 102 pages + reference